Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor Prediction, Preview and Stats

Turkey flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey
Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu Sat, 11 Apr - 2:00 PM
Super Lig
Alanyaspor ANY
1 – 1
Trabzonspor TRA
Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 29 Regular Season
Güven Yalçın - 67' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Ozan Tufan - 58'

CONTEXT

The match between Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor is finished, ending in a 1-1 draw. This result represented a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, which viewed Trabzonspor as the stronger side and likely to prevail. Instead, the visitors could only manage a share of the points, falling short of the projected outcome in what proved a frustrating afternoon for them. Alanyaspor held 41 percent possession while Trabzonspor controlled 59 percent, yet neither side could translate that territorial edge into a decisive victory. No expected goals data is available to measure quality of chances, but the efficiency shift stayed in line with the overall balance of play. The outcome did not align with the pre-match projection that favored the away team, and the absence of red cards or other major disruptive events meant the contest followed a relatively conventional path without sudden shifts in momentum. Both teams showed resilience in an even first half that remained goalless until after the break, when the goals arrived to seal the stalemate. Alanyaspor will likely take satisfaction from earning a point against stronger opposition, while Trabzonspor must reflect on a result that failed to meet anticipated standards.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Trabzonspor showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Savranlar
M. Savranlar
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.12
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.7
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
C. Elbil
C. Elbil
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.12
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.7
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
M. Türkmen
M. Türkmen
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.12
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.7
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
G. Hasova
G. Hasova
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.12
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.7
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
Alanyaspor J. da Silva Pereira
J. da Silva Pereira
VS
Trabzonspor F. Tekke
F. Tekke
1.1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.3
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Gaziantep F.K. Rank: D
Kocaelispor Rank: W
Göztepe Rank: D
Gençlerbirliği Rank: D
Galatasaray Rank: L
İstanbul Başakşehir Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Galatasaray Rank: W
Eyüpspor Rank: W
Rizespor Rank: W
Kayserispor Rank: W
Fatih Karagümrük Rank: W
Gaziantep F.K. Rank: W
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 5 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Alanyaspor
31.63%
Draw
28.06%
Away Trabzonspor
40.31%

Movement

Changes since opening
Alanyaspor
+29.35%
Draw
-58.64%
Trabzonspor
+29.29%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
19.87
40.37
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Alanyaspor
Trabzonspor
Power Score
19.87
40.37
League Position
10
3
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Alanyaspor — Opponent-weighted form score
Trabzonspor — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Alanyaspor Trabzonspor

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Alanyaspor

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Trabzonspor

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Alanyaspor ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Trabzonspor
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
22.32
33.47
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
33.47
22.32
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Alanyaspor -1.21 Efficiency Index
vs
Trabzonspor +1.21 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Alanyaspor
Trabzonspor
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Alanyaspor ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Trabzonspor
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Alanyaspor Trabzonspor
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Alanyaspor Trabzonspor
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Alanyaspor
Trabzonspor
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Alanyaspor
vs
Trabzonspor
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Alanyaspor Trabzonspor
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Alanyaspor 0.35
Trabzonspor 0.31
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Alanyaspor Trabzonspor
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Alanyaspor 0.02
Trabzonspor 0.04
Alanyaspor
Trabzonspor
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • TRA had peak pressure around 17'.
  • ANY started the game with stronger pressure.
ANY Pressure TRA Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: TRA reached the top pressure at 17' (70.57).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 19 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Alanyaspor ANY Home
19 matches
Trabzonspor TRA Away
Match Record
8
Wins
6
5
Draws
5
6
Losses
8
Goals
33
Goals Scored
28
28
Goals Conceded
33
+5
Goal Difference
-5
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:08:02+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
P. de Mileo Vidotti
Brazil
48 P. de Mileo Vidotti
N. Reis Lima
Portugal
3 N. Reis Lima
F. Aliti
Kosovo
5 F. Aliti
?. Akdağ
Romania
50 ?. Akdağ
E. Keskin
Substitution
Turkey
8 E. Keskin
N. Janvier
Substitution
France
17 N. Janvier
G. Makouta
Substitution
France
42 G. Makouta
R. Pereira Duarte
Brazil
11 R. Pereira Duarte
E. Karaca
Substitution
Turkey
7 E. Karaca
G. Yalçın
Substitution
Turkey
10 G. Yalçın
U. Hwang
South Korea
16 U. Hwang
A. Onana
Cameroon
24 A. Onana
M. Eskihellaç
Turkey
19 M. Eskihellaç
S. Savić
Montenegro
15 S. Savić
C. Nwaiwu
Nigeria
27 C. Nwaiwu
W. Cardoso Pina
Portugal
20 W. Cardoso Pina
T. Jabol Folcarelli
France
26 T. Jabol Folcarelli
C. Inao Oulaï
42 C. Inao Oulaï
A. Nwakaeme
Substitution
Nigeria
9 A. Nwakaeme
O. Tufan
Substitution
Turkey
11 O. Tufan
O. Zubkov
Ukraine
22 O. Zubkov
F. da Silva
Substitution
Brazil
99 F. da Silva

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 11, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium
Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu
Capacity
10128
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Mustafa Savranlar
Candaş Elbil
Mehmet Türkmen
Gürcan Hasova

Statistics

Possession
ANY
41%
TRA
59%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 2
5 Shots 7
23 Dangerous attacks 55
41 Possession 59
2 Corners 5
12 Free kicks 8
3 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

63 Successful Dribbles Percentage 29
5 Successful Dribbles 2
8 Dribble Attempts 7
12 Throwins 20
11 Goal Kicks 8
10 Successful Headers 14
50 Ball Safe 49
7 Goal Attempts 7
0 Assists 1
1 Penalties 0
5 Substitutions 3

Attacking

61 Attacks 123
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

84 Successful Passes Percentage 90
390 Passes 566
38 Long Passes 59
15 Successful Long Passes 39
39 Successful Long Passes Percentage 66
6 Key Passes 12
329 Successful Passes 508

Defensive

9 Tackles 7
6 Interceptions 5
2 Saves 1

Build-up

11 Total Crosses 23
2 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

8 Fouls 13
3 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Mehmet Türkmen

Starting XI ▼

48
Paulo Victor
Paulo Victor Goalkeeper
3
Nuno Lima
Nuno Lima Defender
5
Fidan Aliti
Fidan Aliti Defender
50
Ümit Akdağ
Ümit Akdağ Defender
8
Enes Keskin
Enes Keskin Midfielder
6
İzzet Çelik
İzzet Çelik
Midfielder68'
11
Ruan
Ruan Midfielder
17
Nicolas Janvier
Nicolas Janvier Midfielder
20
Fatih Aksoy
Fatih Aksoy
Defender88'
42
Gaius Makouta
Gaius Makouta Midfielder
58
Maestro
Maestro
Midfielder68'
7
Efecan Karaca
Efecan Karaca Attacker
27
İbrahim Kaya
İbrahim Kaya
Attacker68'
10
Güven Yalçın
Güven Yalçın Attacker
9
Steve Mounié
Steve Mounié
Attacker81'
16
Ui-jo Hwang
Ui-jo Hwang Attacker
Referee : Mehmet Türkmen

Starting XI ▼

24
André Onana
André Onana Goalkeeper
15
Stefan Savic
Stefan Savic Defender
19
Mustafa Eskihellaç
Mustafa Eskihellaç Defender
20
Wagner Pina
Wagner Pina Defender
27
Chibuike Nwaiwu
Chibuike Nwaiwu Defender
9
Anthony Nwakaeme
Anthony Nwakaeme Midfielder
14
Mathias Løvik
Mathias Løvik
Defender84'
11
Ozan Tufan
Ozan Tufan Midfielder
18
Umut Nayir
Umut Nayir
Attacker77'
22
Oleksandr Zubkov
Oleksandr Zubkov Midfielder
26
Tim Jabol-Folcarelli
Tim Jabol-Folcarelli Midfielder
42
Christ Inao Oulaï
Christ Inao Oulaï Midfielder
99
Felipe Augusto
Felipe Augusto Attacker
8
Benjamin Bouchouari
Benjamin Bouchouari
Midfielder89'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Fatih Aksoy
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
90+7'
Event
Ümit Akdağ
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
90+3'
89'
Event
Benjamin Bouchouari → Felipe Augusto
8th Substitution
Event
Fatih Aksoy → Nicolas Janvier
7th Substitution
88'
84'
Event
Mathias Løvik → Anthony Nwakaeme
6th Substitution
Event
Steve Mounié → Güven Yalçın
5th Substitution
81'
77'
Event
Umut Nayir → Ozan Tufan
4th Substitution
71'
Event
Tim Jabol-Folcarelli
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Nicolas Janvier
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
70'
Event
İzzet Çelik → Enes Keskin
1st Substitution
68'
Event
İbrahim Kaya → Efecan Karaca
2nd Substitution
68'
Event
Maestro → Gaius Makouta
3rd Substitution
68'
Event
Güven Yalçın
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
67'
Event
Güven Yalçın
Penalty awarded
64'
58'
Event
Ozan Tufan
Header / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Trabzonspor exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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