Burnley vs Brighton & Hove Albion Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Turf Moor Sat, 11 Apr - 2:00 PM
Premier League
Burnley BUR
0 Winner 2
Brighton & Hove Albion BHA
Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
|
Goal
Mats Wieffer - 43', 89'

CONTEXT

The match between Burnley and Brighton & Hove Albion is finished, ending with a full-time score of 0-2 to the visitors. Brighton & Hove Albion led 1-0 at half-time and added a second goal after the break, securing a comfortable victory on the road. The result represented a moderate deviation from pre-match expectations, with Brighton & Hove Albion exceeding projections. Possession was perfectly balanced at 50 percent each, but the visitors demonstrated greater cutting edge. No red cards were shown, and no major disruptive events altered the flow of play. Efficiency levels stayed in line with the stronger team designation for Brighton, whose positive rating contrasted sharply with Burnley’s negative figure. With no xG data available, it remains unclear how closely the scoreline matched expected goals, though the outcome did not align with the pre-match projection. Brighton’s clinical finishing proved decisive in a contest that ultimately followed their overall quality.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Brighton & Hove Albion showed a moderate deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
T. Bramall
T. Bramall
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.53
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.78
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
C. Hatzidakis
C. Hatzidakis
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.53
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.78
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
M. Perry
M. Perry
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.53
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.78
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
R. Jones
R. Jones
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.53
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.78
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Burnley S. Parker
S. Parker
VS
Brighton & Hove Albion F. Hürzeler
F. Hürzeler
0.67
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.42
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fulham Rank: L
AFC Bournemouth Rank: D
Everton Rank: L
Brentford Rank: L
Chelsea Rank: D
Crystal Palace Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Liverpool Rank: W
Sunderland Rank: W
Arsenal Rank: L
Nottingham Forest Rank: W
Brentford Rank: W
Aston Villa Rank: L
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 12 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Burnley
0.93%
Draw
11.78%
Away Brighton & Hove Albion
87.28%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
14.38
29.05
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Burnley
Brighton & Hove Albion
Power Score
14.38
29.05
League Position
19
9
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Burnley — Opponent-weighted form score
Brighton & Hove Albion — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Burnley Brighton & Hove Albion

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Burnley

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Brighton & Hove Albion

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Burnley ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Brighton & Hove Albion
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
24.00
30.80
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
30.80
24.00
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Burnley -0.81 Efficiency Index
vs
Brighton & Hove Albion +0.81 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Burnley
Brighton & Hove Albion
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Burnley ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Brighton & Hove Albion
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Burnley Brighton & Hove Albion
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Burnley Brighton & Hove Albion
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Burnley
Brighton & Hove Albion
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Burnley
vs
Brighton & Hove Albion
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Burnley Brighton & Hove Albion
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Burnley 0.25
Brighton & Hove Albion 0.27
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Burnley Brighton & Hove Albion
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Burnley 0.04
Brighton & Hove Albion 0.00
Burnley
Brighton & Hove Albion
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • BUR had peak pressure around 31'.
  • BHA started the game with stronger pressure.
BUR Pressure BHA Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: BUR reached the top pressure at 31' (70.60).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 23 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Burnley BUR Home
23 matches
Brighton & Hove Albion BHA Away
Match Record
5
Wins
6
12
Draws
12
6
Losses
5
Goals
20
Goals Scored
21
21
Goals Conceded
20
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:05:41+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
M. Dúbravka
Slovakia
1 M. Dúbravka
B. Humphreys
Substitution
England
12 B. Humphreys
H. Ekdal
Sweden
18 H. Ekdal
M. Esteve
France
5 M. Esteve
Q. Hartman
Substitution
Netherlands
3 Q. Hartman
J. Ward-Prowse
England
20 J. Ward-Prowse
F. Morris Luís
Substitution
Portugal
16 F. Morris Luís
M. Edwards
Substitution
England
10 M. Edwards
C. Ugochukwu
Substitution
France
8 C. Ugochukwu
J. Anthony
England
11 J. Anthony
Z. Flemming
Netherlands
19 Z. Flemming
B. Verbruggen
Netherlands
1 B. Verbruggen
F. Kadıoğlu
Turkey
24 F. Kadıoğlu
O. Boscagli
France
21 O. Boscagli
J. van Hecke
Netherlands
6 J. van Hecke
M. Wieffer
Netherlands
27 M. Wieffer
P. Groß
Germany
30 P. Groß
Y. Ayari
Sweden
26 Y. Ayari
Y. Minteh
Substitution
Gambia
11 Y. Minteh
J. Hinshelwood
Substitution
England
13 J. Hinshelwood
D. Gómez Amarilla
Substitution
Paraguay
25 D. Gómez Amarilla
D. Tackie Mensah Welbeck
Substitution
England
18 D. Tackie Mensah Welbeck

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 11, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium
Turf Moor
Capacity
22546
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Thomas Bramall
Constantine Hatzidakis
Marc Perry
Robert Jones

Statistics

Possession
BUR
50%
BHA
50%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 0
10 Shots 13
40 Dangerous attacks 48
50 Possession 50
8 Corners 2
11 Free kicks 8
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

27 Dribble Attempts 12
27 Throwins 11
12 Successful Dribbles 7
44 Successful Dribbles Percentage 58
12 Successful Headers 8
84 Ball Safe 61
9 Goal Kicks 6
8 Goal Attempts 9
0 Assists 2
5 Substitutions 4
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

99 Attacks 91
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

81 Successful Passes Percentage 83
8 Key Passes 12
462 Passes 473
26 Successful Long Passes 21
376 Successful Passes 394
43 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42
61 Long Passes 50

Defensive

10 Interceptions 14
11 Tackles 30
3 Saves 4

Build-up

6 Accurate Crosses 8
22 Total Crosses 16

Discipline

2 Offsides 1
7 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Thomas Bramall

Starting XI ▼

1
Martin Dúbravka
Martin Dúbravka Goalkeeper
3
Quilindschy Hartman
Quilindschy Hartman Defender
23
Lucas Pires
Lucas Pires
Defender82'
5
Maxime Estève
Maxime Estève Defender
12
Bashir Humphreys
Bashir Humphreys Defender
2
Kyle Walker
Kyle Walker
Defender82'
18
Hjalmar Ekdal
Hjalmar Ekdal Defender
8
Lesley Ugochukwu
Lesley Ugochukwu Midfielder
7
Jacob Bruun Larsen
Jacob Bruun Larsen
Attacker67'
10
Marcus Edwards
Marcus Edwards Midfielder
31
Mike Tresor
Mike Tresor
Attacker75'
11
Jaidon Anthony
Jaidon Anthony Midfielder
16
Florentino
Florentino Midfielder
27
Armando Broja
Armando Broja
Attacker82'
20
James Ward-Prowse
James Ward-Prowse Midfielder
19
Zian Flemming
Zian Flemming Attacker
Referee : Thomas Bramall

Starting XI ▼

1
Bart Verbruggen
Bart Verbruggen Goalkeeper
6
Jan Paul van Hecke
Jan Paul van Hecke Defender
21
Olivier Boscagli
Olivier Boscagli Defender
24
Ferdi Kadıoğlu
Ferdi Kadıoğlu Defender
27
Mats Wieffer
Mats Wieffer Defender
2
11
Yankuba Minteh
Yankuba Minteh Midfielder
22
Kaoru Mitoma
Kaoru Mitoma
Midfielder80'
13
Jack Hinshelwood
Jack Hinshelwood Midfielder
17
Carlos Baleba
Carlos Baleba
Midfielder75'
25
Diego Gómez
Diego Gómez Midfielder
34
Joël Veltman
Joël Veltman
Defender88'
26
Yasin Ayari
Yasin Ayari Midfielder
30
Pascal Groß
Pascal Groß Midfielder
18
Danny Welbeck
Danny Welbeck Attacker
10
Georginio Rutter
Georginio Rutter
Attacker75'

Events

2ND-HALF
89'
Event
Mats Wieffer
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
88'
Event
Joël Veltman → Diego Gómez
9th Substitution
Event
Kyle Walker → Bashir Humphreys
8th Substitution
82'
Event
Armando Broja → Florentino
6th Substitution
82'
Event
Lucas Pires → Quilindschy Hartman
7th Substitution
82'
80'
Event
Kaoru Mitoma → Yankuba Minteh
5th Substitution
Event
Mike Tresor → Marcus Edwards
4th Substitution
75'
75'
Event
Carlos Baleba → Jack Hinshelwood
2nd Substitution
75'
Event
Georginio Rutter → Danny Welbeck
3rd Substitution
Event
Jacob Bruun Larsen → Lesley Ugochukwu
1st Substitution
67'
Event
Florentino
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
60'
Event
Jaidon Anthony
Var
51'
Event
Bashir Humphreys
Offside / Goal Disallowed
50'
48'
Event
Jan Paul van Hecke
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
43'
Event
Mats Wieffer
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Maxime Estève
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
30'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 6 minutes of added time.
90
Corner Corner
Corner - Brighton and Hove Albion. Conceded by Kyle Walker.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Burnley losing 0-2 to Brighton and Hove Albion.
89
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Brighton and Hove Albion lead Burnley 2-0 as Mats Wieffer scores with a right-footed shot from outside the box.
88
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Brighton and Hove Albion: Joël Veltman replaces Diego Gómez.
87
Corner Corner
Burnley win a corner after Kaoru Mitoma concedes.
85
Update Update
Diego Gómez fouled a player from Brighton and Hove Albion.
85
Update Update
Hjalmar Ekdal from Burnley won a free kick in defense.
84
Attempt Attempt
Georginio Rutter's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist came from Yasin Ayari.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Burnley: Armando Broja replaces Florentino.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Burnley: Kyle Walker replaces Bashir Humphreys.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Burnley: Lucas Pires replaces Quilindschy Hartman.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Brighton and Hove Albion: Kaoru Mitoma replaces Yankuba Minteh.
80
Corner Corner
Burnley wins a corner after Bart Verbruggen concedes.
80
Corner Corner
Burnley wins a corner, conceded by Bart Verbruggen.
78
Update Update
Offside called against Brighton and Hove Albion. Jan Paul van Hecke is offside.
77
Update Update
Pascal Groß from Brighton and Hove Albion won a free kick on the left wing.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Brighton and Hove Albion: Carlos Baleba replaces Jack Hinshelwood.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Brighton and Hove Albion: Georginio Rutter replaces Danny Welbeck.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Burnley: Mike Trésor replaces Marcus Edwards.
72
Update Update
Marcus Edwards from Burnley won a free kick on the right wing.
72
Update Update
Foul by Pascal Groß of Brighton and Hove Albion.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Burnley: Jacob Bruun Larsen replaces Lesley Ugochukwu.
64
Update Update
Bashir Humphreys from Burnley won a free kick in defense.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution - Burnley. Jacob Bruun Larsen for Lesley Ugochukwu.
64
Update Update
Bashir Humphreys of Burnley won a free kick in defense.
63
Update Update
Foul by Yankuba Minteh of Brighton and Hove Albion.
63
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Diego Gómez - Brighton and Hove Albion - shot with right foot from the right side of the box missed to the left. Assist - Ferdi Kadioglu.
61
Update Update
Foul by Yasin Ayari of Brighton and Hove Albion.
61
Attempt Attempt
Danny Welbeck's shot from the center of the box for Brighton and Hove Albion is blocked.
60
Update Update
Yankuba Minteh from Brighton and Hove Albion won a free kick on the left wing.
60
Update Update
Zian Flemming of Burnley won a free kick in defense.
60
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Florentino from Burnley receives a yellow card for a foul.
59
Corner Corner
Burnley wins a corner after Yasin Ayari concedes.
59
Attempt Attempt
Zian Flemming of Burnley attempts an attack with a right-footed shot from the right side of the box, but it is saved by Brighton and Hove Albion's goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen, who is positioned in the center of the goal. The assist comes from Bashir Humphreys, who heads the ball.
59
Attempt Attempt
Shot blocked. Zian Flemming - Burnley - shot with the head from the centre of the box is blocked. Assist - James Ward-Prowse with a cross.
57
Update Update
Marcus Edwards from Burnley won a free kick in defense.
57
Update Update
Marcus Edwards from Burnley won a free kick in defense.
57
Corner Corner
Burnley wins a corner after Bart Verbruggen concedes.
57
Attempt Attempt
Zian Flemming's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Florentino provided the assist.
55
Update Update
Ferdi Kadioglu from Brighton and Hove Albion won a free kick in defense.
55
Update Update
Fouled by Zian Flemming of Burnley.
53
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Ferdi Kadioglu from Brighton and Hove Albion took a right-footed shot from outside the box.
52
Corner Corner
Brighton and Hove Albion win a corner after Bashir Humphreys concedes.
51
Update Update
Fouled by Zian Flemming of Burnley.
51
Update Update
Jan Paul van Hecke from Brighton and Hove Albion won a free kick on the right wing.
49
Update Update
Offside called against Burnley. Bashir Humphreys is in an offside position.
48
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jan Paul van Hecke of Brighton and Hove Albion receives a yellow card for a foul.
48
Update Update
Jaidon Anthony from Burnley won a free kick on the left wing.
48
Update Update
Foul committed by Jan Paul van Hecke of Brighton and Hove Albion.
45
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Lesley Ugochukwu from Burnley took a right-footed shot from the right side of the box.
45
Corner Corner
Missed chance. Florentino from Burnley takes a right-footed shot from outside the box after a corner, but it misses the target.
45
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Florentino for Burnley shoots with his right foot from outside the box.
45
Corner Corner
Burnley wins a corner after Ferdi Kadioglu concedes.
45
Attempt Attempt
Danny Welbeck's shot from close range is blocked.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with Burnley trailing Brighton and Hove Albion 0-1.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Burnley 0, Brighton and Hove Albion 1.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Burnley 0, Brighton and Hove Albion 1.
43
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Brighton and Hove Albion lead 1-0 against Burnley. Mats Wieffer scores with a left-footed shot from the center of the box into the right corner, assisted by Pascal Groß's cross.
42
Update Update
Jan Paul van Hecke of Brighton and Hove Albion won a free kick in defense.
42
Update Update
Zian Flemming fouled a Burnley player.
35
Update Update
Handball by Yankuba Minteh of Brighton and Hove Albion.
34
Update Update
Yasin Ayari of Brighton and Hove Albion won a free kick in defense.
34
Update Update
Foul committed by Pascal Groß of Brighton and Hove Albion.
34
Update Update
Fouled by Florentino of Burnley.
34
Update Update
Zian Flemming from Burnley won a free kick in defense.
32
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Yankuba Minteh of Brighton and Hove Albion has a left-footed shot from outside the box that is saved.
30
Update Update
Foul committed by Maxime Estève of Burnley.
30
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Maxime Estève from Burnley receives a yellow card for a foul.
30
Update Update
Diego Gómez from Brighton and Hove Albion won a free kick in the attacking area.
28
Update Update
Bashir Humphreys' header from the center of the box is blocked after a cross from James Ward-Prowse.
27
Corner Corner
Burnley wins a corner after Pascal Groß concedes.
25
Update Update
Martin Dúbravka of Burnley won a free kick in defense.
25
Update Update
Diego Gómez of Brighton and Hove Albion committed a foul.
24
Attempt Attempt
Yankuba Minteh's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. Danny Welbeck provided the assist.
20
Corner Corner
Danny Welbeck of Brighton and Hove Albion makes an attacking attempt, shooting with his right foot from inside the six-yard box. His shot to the left side is saved in the top left corner by Martin Dúbravka of Burnley. The assist comes from Jan Paul van Hecke, who provided the cross.
15
Update Update
Foul committed by Jack Hinshelwood of Brighton and Hove Albion.
15
Update Update
Bashir Humphreys of Burnley won a free kick in defense.
10
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Burnley after a concession by Bart Verbruggen.
10
Corner Corner
Burnley wins a corner after Bart Verbruggen concedes.
10
Corner Corner
Zian Flemming from Burnley had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box, but it went high and wide to the left. The assist came from James Ward-Prowse, who provided a cross after a corner.
9
Corner Corner
Corner - Burnley. Conceded by Jan Paul van Hecke.
8
Update Update
Marcus Edwards of Burnley won a free kick in defense.
8
Update Update
Yankuba Minteh of Brighton and Hove Albion committed a foul.
6
Update Update
Offside called against Burnley. Jaidon Anthony is in an offside position.
5
Corner Corner
Danny Welbeck from Brighton and Hove Albion attempts an attack, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box, but Martin Dúbravka from Burnley saves it in the top right corner. The assist came from Yankuba Minteh, who provided the cross.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Brighton & Hove Albion exhibited a moderate deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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