Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Istra 1961 Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Kranjčevićeva Sat, 11 Apr - 2:00 PM
1. HNL
Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb
2 Winner 0
Istra 1961 Istra 1961
Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 29 Regular Season
Marcel Heister - 18' (Own Goal)
Blaz Boskovic - 45+1'
Goal
|
Tino Jukic 64' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

The match between Lokomotiva Zagreb and Istra 1961 is now finished, ending in a 0-0 draw at full time. Pre-match expectations pointed strongly toward a home victory, yet the result represented a significant deviation that played in Istra 1961's favor. The visitors emerged as the stronger side overall, claiming a point through disciplined play despite entering the fixture as clear underdogs in the projections. Istra 1961 held 56 percent possession to Lokomotiva Zagreb's 44 percent, though no expected goals data was available to measure chance quality. The efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations, but the outcome did not align with the pre-match projection. A red card to the home team created second-half distortion, disrupting Lokomotiva's rhythm and preventing them from converting territorial moments into a winning score. This result underlined Istra 1961's ability to adapt under pressure, turning a challenging away assignment into a valuable stalemate once the numerical disadvantage hit the opposition. The draw ultimately highlighted how in-game events can reshape anticipated outcomes.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Istra 1961 showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Crnojević
M. Crnojević
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.5
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.23
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
A. Terzić
A. Terzić
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.5
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.23
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
Dujo Sarić
Dujo Sarić
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.5
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.23
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
V. Vidović
V. Vidović
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.5
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.23
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
Lokomotiva Zagreb N. Jelavić
N. Jelavić
VS
Istra 1961 O. Riera Magem
O. Riera Magem
0.84
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.26
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Vukovar Rank: D
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: L
Hajduk Split Rank: L
Varaždin Rank: D
Rijeka Rank: L
Osijek Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hajduk Split Rank: L
Varaždin Rank: W
Rijeka Rank: W
Osijek Rank: L
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: L
Gorica Rank: L
27
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
27 - 18 - 15
15

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lokomotiva Zagreb
49.31%
Draw
27.19%
Away Istra 1961
23.51%

Movement

Changes since opening
Lokomotiva Zagreb
-48.53%
Draw
+25.27%
Istra 1961
+23.27%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
15.47
22.71
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Istra 1961
Power Score
15.47
22.71
League Position
7
6
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Lokomotiva Zagreb — Opponent-weighted form score
Istra 1961 — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lokomotiva Zagreb Istra 1961

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Lokomotiva Zagreb

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Istra 1961

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Lokomotiva Zagreb ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Istra 1961
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.02
31.16
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
31.16
31.02
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Lokomotiva Zagreb -0.01 Efficiency Index
vs
Istra 1961 +0.01 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Istra 1961
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Lokomotiva Zagreb ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Istra 1961
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Lokomotiva Zagreb Istra 1961
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Lokomotiva Zagreb Istra 1961
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Istra 1961
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Lokomotiva Zagreb
vs
Istra 1961
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Lokomotiva Zagreb Istra 1961
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.14
Istra 1961 0.20
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Lokomotiva Zagreb Istra 1961
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.00
Istra 1961 0.03
Lokomotiva Zagreb
Istra 1961
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Istra 1961 had peak pressure around 45'.
  • Istra 1961 started the game with stronger pressure.
Lokomotiva Zagreb Pressure Istra 1961 Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Istra 1961 reached the top pressure at 45' (72.05).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 60 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb Home
60 matches
Istra 1961 Istra 1961 Away
Match Record
27
Wins
15
18
Draws
18
15
Losses
27
Goals
96
Goals Scored
64
64
Goals Conceded
96
+32
Goal Difference
-32
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:06:12+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
J. Posavec
Croatia
12 J. Posavec
D. Kolinger
Croatia
20 D. Kolinger
T. Jukić
Germany
5 T. Jukić
L. Dajčer
Croatia
16 L. Dajčer
M. Vešović
Montenegro
23 M. Vešović
M. Subotic
Substitution
Croatia
10 M. Subotic
B. Bošković
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
6 B. Bošković
M. Pajač
Croatia
17 M. Pajač
L. Belcar
Croatia
28 L. Belcar
J. Vasilj
Substitution
Croatia
29 J. Vasilj
A. Stojaković
Substitution
Slovenia
15 A. Stojaković
F. Kolić
Croatia
1 F. Kolić
M. Heister
Germany
26 M. Heister
F. Taraba
Bosnia and Herzegovina
24 F. Taraba
M. Nasraoui
Tunisia
3 M. Nasraoui
R. Hrvatin
Substitution
Slovenia
44 R. Hrvatin
A. Mauric
Substitution
Croatia
8 A. Mauric
I. Ayuma
Substitution
18 I. Ayuma
S. Goričan
Croatia
11 S. Goričan
D. Ahmeti
Substitution
Croatia
20 D. Ahmeti
E. Frederiksen
Substitution
Denmark
17 E. Frederiksen
S. Prevljak
Bosnia and Herzegovina
9 S. Prevljak

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 11, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Kranjčevićeva
Capacity
8850
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Marko Crnojević
Ante Terzić
Dujo Sarić
Vice Vidović

Statistics

Possession
Lokomotiva Zagreb
47%
Istra 1961
53%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 2
2 Shots 4
73 Dangerous attacks 69
44 Possession 56
5 Corners 4
13 Free kicks 13
2 Yellow Cards 1
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

53 Successful Dribbles Percentage 24
19 Dribble Attempts 17
7 Goal Kicks 6
10 Successful Dribbles 4
17 Throwins 25
1 Assists 0
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

98 Attacks 105
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

77 Successful Passes Percentage 82
337 Passes 433
27 Successful Long Passes 20
261 Successful Passes 355
47 Successful Long Passes Percentage 36
7 Key Passes 8
57 Long Passes 56

Defensive

9 Interceptions 7
16 Tackles 13
3 Saves 2

Build-up

14 Total Crosses 21
3 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

12 Fouls 13
4 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Ante Terzić

Starting XI ▼

12
Josip Posavec
Josip Posavec Goalkeeper
5
Tino Jukic
Tino Jukic Defender
16
Luka Dajcer
Luka Dajcer Defender
20
Denis Kolinger
Denis Kolinger Defender
6
Blaz Boskovic
Blaz Boskovic Midfielder
14
Marcel Lorber
Marcel Lorber
Midfielder80'
10
Matija Subotic
Matija Subotic Midfielder
33
Dimitrije Kamenovic
Dimitrije Kamenovic
Defender90+3'
17
Marko Pajac
Marko Pajac Midfielder
23
Marko Vesovic
Marko Vesovic Midfielder
15
Aleks Stojakovic
Aleks Stojakovic Attacker
9
Ibrahim Sabra
Ibrahim Sabra
Attacker79'
28
Leon Belcar
Leon Belcar Attacker
29
Jakov-Anton Vasilj
Jakov-Anton Vasilj Attacker
18
Khalil Ben Youssef
Khalil Ben Youssef
Defender71'
Referee : Ante Terzić

Starting XI ▼

1
Franko Kolic
Franko Kolic Goalkeeper
3
Mohamed Nasraoui
Mohamed Nasraoui Defender
24
Filip Taraba
Filip Taraba Defender
26
Marcel Heister
Marcel Heister Defender
44
R. Hrvatin
R. Hrvatin Defender
13
Niko Šepić
Niko Šepić
Defender46'
8
Antonio Mauric
Antonio Mauric Midfielder
23
Leo Stulac
Leo Stulac
Midfielder66'
11
Silvio Gorican
Silvio Gorican Midfielder
17
Emil Frederiksen
Emil Frederiksen Midfielder
29
Allen Obando
Allen Obando
Attacker46'
18
Israel Isaac Ayuma
Israel Isaac Ayuma Midfielder
25
Gustavo Albarracín
Gustavo Albarracín
Midfielder66'
20
Dukan Ahmeti
Dukan Ahmeti Midfielder
77
Charles Adah Agada
Charles Adah Agada
Attacker56'
9
Smail Prevljak
Smail Prevljak Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Dimitrije Kamenovic → Matija Subotic
9th Substitution
90+3'
Event
Teodor Kralevski → Khalil Ben Youssef
10th Substitution
90+3'
Event
Marcel Lorber → Blaz Boskovic
8th Substitution
80'
Event
Khalil Ben Youssef
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
80'
Event
Ibrahim Sabra → Aleks Stojakovic
7th Substitution
79'
73'
Event
Gustavo Albarracín
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Khalil Ben Youssef → Jakov-Anton Vasilj
6th Substitution
71'
66'
Event
Gustavo Albarracín → Israel Isaac Ayuma
4th Substitution
66'
Event
Leo Stulac → Antonio Mauric
5th Substitution
Event
Tino Jukic
Professional foul last man / 1st Redcard
64'
Event
Tino Jukic
Card adjusted
63'
56'
Event
Charles Adah Agada → Dukan Ahmeti
3rd Substitution
Event
Blaz Boskovic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
50'
46'
Event
Allen Obando → Emil Frederiksen
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Niko Šepić → R. Hrvatin
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Blaz Boskovic
Header / 1st Goal
45+1'
Event
Marcel Heister
Right foot shot / 1st Own Goal
18'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Istra 1961 exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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