Brentford vs Everton Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Gtech Community Stadium Sat, 11 Apr - 2:00 PM
Premier League
Brentford BRE
2 – 2
Everton EVE
Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Igor Thiago - 3' (P), 76'
Goal
|
Goal
Beto - 26'
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall - 90+1'

CONTEXT

The match between Brentford and Everton is now finished, with the full-time score finishing 2-2. Both sides had traded goals in the first half to reach the interval level at 1-1, and neither could find a decisive winner after the restart despite Brentford being regarded as the stronger team beforehand. The result represented a moderate deviation from pre-match expectations, with Brentford the side most affected. Brentford held 55 percent possession to Everton’s 45 percent, yet the absence of expected goals data makes it impossible to assess whether the scoring aligned precisely with underlying chance quality. Overall the outcome proved consistent with the wider pre-match projection, and the efficiency shift across the ninety minutes stayed in line with expectations. No red cards were issued and no major disciplinary events altered the flow of play. The even contest ultimately delivered a fair share of the points, confirming that while the stronger side fell slightly short of a victory, the draw accurately reflected the balance of the afternoon.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Brentford showed a moderate deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
F. Hallam
F. Hallam
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.53
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.78
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
A. Madley
A. Madley
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.53
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.78
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
S. Bennett
S. Bennett
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.53
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.78
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
S. Meredith
S. Meredith
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 14.53
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.78
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Brentford K. Andrews
K. Andrews
VS
Everton D. Moyes
D. Moyes
1.63
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.46
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Leeds United Rank: D
Wolverhampton Wanderers Rank: D
AFC Bournemouth Rank: D
Burnley Rank: W
Brighton & Hove Albion Rank: L
Arsenal Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Chelsea Rank: W
Arsenal Rank: L
Burnley Rank: W
Newcastle United Rank: W
Manchester United Rank: L
AFC Bournemouth Rank: L
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 4 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Brentford
5.51%
Draw
90.03%
Away Everton
4.46%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
24.27
23.96
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Brentford
Everton
Power Score
24.27
23.96
League Position
7
8
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Brentford — Opponent-weighted form score
Everton — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Brentford Everton

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Brentford

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Everton

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Brentford ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Everton
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
35.73
37.11
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
37.11
35.73
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Brentford -0.16 Efficiency Index
vs
Everton +0.16 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Brentford
Everton
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Brentford ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Everton
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Brentford Everton
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Brentford Everton
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Brentford
Everton
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Brentford
vs
Everton
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Brentford Everton
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Brentford 0.32
Everton 0.26
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Brentford Everton
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Brentford 0.04
Everton 0.04
Brentford
Everton
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • BRE had peak pressure around 56'.
  • BRE started the game with stronger pressure.
BRE Pressure EVE Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: BRE reached the top pressure at 56' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Brentford BRE Home
11 matches
Everton EVE Away
Match Record
3
Wins
4
4
Draws
4
4
Losses
3
Goals
13
Goals Scored
16
16
Goals Conceded
13
-3
Goal Difference
+3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:06:19+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
C. Kelleher
Republic of Ireland
1 C. Kelleher
M. Kayode
Italy
33 M. Kayode
S. van den Berg
Netherlands
4 S. van den Berg
N. Collins
Republic of Ireland
22 N. Collins
K. Lewis-Potter
England
23 K. Lewis-Potter
Y. Yarmoliuk
Ukraine
18 Y. Yarmoliuk
M. Jensen
Denmark
8 M. Jensen
Dango Ouattara
Burkina Faso
19 Dango Ouattara
M. Damsgaard
Substitution
Denmark
24 M. Damsgaard
K. Schade
Germany
7 K. Schade
Thiago
Brazil
9 Thiago
J. Pickford
England
1 J. Pickford
V. Mykolenko
Ukraine
16 V. Mykolenko
J. Branthwaite
England
32 J. Branthwaite
J. Tarkowski
England
6 J. Tarkowski
J. O´Brien
Republic of Ireland
15 J. O´Brien
J. Garner
England
37 J. Garner
I. Gueye
Substitution
Senegal
27 I. Gueye
I. Ndiaye
Senegal
10 I. Ndiaye
K. Dewsbury-Hall
England
22 K. Dewsbury-Hall
D. McNeil
Substitution
England
7 D. McNeil
N. Bercique Gomes Betuncal
Substitution
Portugal
9 N. Bercique Gomes Betuncal

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 11, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium
Gtech Community Stadium
Capacity
17250
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Farai Hallam
Andy Madley
Simon Bennett
Steve Meredith

Statistics

Possession
BRE
55%
EVE
45%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
4 Big Chances Created 2
4 Shots 7
53 Dangerous attacks 54
55 Possession 45
2 Corners 3
8 Free kicks 6
0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

1 Penalties 0
53 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40
9 Goal Kicks 10
18 Throwins 22
16 Successful Headers 15
15 Dribble Attempts 5
1 Assists 1
8 Successful Dribbles 2
2 Hit Woodwork 0
1 Injuries 1
71 Ball Safe 68
8 Goal Attempts 8
1 Substitutions 3

Attacking

111 Attacks 80
3 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

449 Passes 372
83 Successful Passes Percentage 81
38 Successful Long Passes 14
53 Successful Long Passes Percentage 34
72 Long Passes 41
373 Successful Passes 301
12 Key Passes 10

Defensive

8 Interceptions 7
15 Tackles 15
4 Saves 2

Build-up

9 Accurate Crosses 2
22 Total Crosses 19

Discipline

6 Fouls 7
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Farai Hallam

Starting XI ▼

1
Caoimhín Kelleher
Caoimhín Kelleher Goalkeeper
4
Sepp van den Berg
Sepp van den Berg Defender
22
Nathan Collins
Nathan Collins Defender
23
Keane Lewis-Potter
Keane Lewis-Potter Defender
33
Michael Kayode
Michael Kayode Defender
7
Kevin Schade
Kevin Schade Midfielder
8
Mathias Jensen
Mathias Jensen Midfielder
18
Yegor Yarmolyuk
Yegor Yarmolyuk Midfielder
19
Dango Ouattara
Dango Ouattara Midfielder
24
Mikkel Damsgaard
Mikkel Damsgaard Midfielder
11
Reiss Nelson
Reiss Nelson
Attacker46'
9
Igor Thiago
Igor Thiago Attacker
2
Referee : Farai Hallam

Starting XI ▼

1
Jordan Pickford
Jordan Pickford Goalkeeper
6
James Tarkowski
James Tarkowski Defender
15
Jake O'Brien
Jake O'Brien Defender
16
Vitaliy Mykolenko
Vitaliy Mykolenko Defender
32
Jarrad Branthwaite
Jarrad Branthwaite Defender
7
Dwight McNeil
Dwight McNeil Midfielder
19
Tyrique George
Tyrique George
Attacker74'
10
Iliman Ndiaye
Iliman Ndiaye Midfielder
22
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall Midfielder
27
Idrissa Gueye
Idrissa Gueye Midfielder
42
Tim Iroegbunam
Tim Iroegbunam
Midfielder74'
37
James Garner
James Garner Midfielder
9
Beto
Beto Attacker
11
Thierno Barry
Thierno Barry
Attacker74'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Igor Thiago
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
76'
74'
Event
Thierno Barry → Beto
2nd Substitution
74'
Event
Tyrique George → Dwight McNeil
3rd Substitution
74'
Event
Tim Iroegbunam → Idrissa Gueye
4th Substitution
47'
Event
James Garner
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Reiss Nelson → Mikkel Damsgaard
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
26'
Event
Beto
Header / 1st Goal
Event
Igor Thiago
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
3'
2'
Event
Jordan Pickford
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Yehor Yarmoliuk from Brentford won a free kick in defense.
90
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Schade from Brentford had a missed chance, heading the ball from a few meters out but it went close and missed. The assist came from Keane Lewis-Potter with a cross.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 3 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall fouled an Everton player.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall scores for Everton with a left-footed shot from a difficult position on the left into the left corner. The match is now 2-2.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with the match finishing 2-2 between Brentford and Everton.
90
Attempt Attempt
Jake O'Brien's shot for Everton from the center of the box is blocked. Iliman Ndiaye provided the assist.
88
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Tyrique George from Everton takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the box, but it's saved in the left corner by Caoimhín Kelleher of Brentford, with an assist from Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall.
88
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Everton after a concession by Caoimhín Kelleher.
85
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Everton after a concession by Sepp van den Berg.
82
Update Update
Nathan Collins from Brentford won a free kick in defense.
82
Update Update
Thierno Barry from Everton committed a foul.
81
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Tyrique George from Everton took a right-footed shot from outside the box.
76
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Brentford 2, Everton 1. Igor Thiago scores for Brentford with a shot from the center of the box into the center of the goal, assisted by Michael Kayode.
76
Attempt Attempt
Michael Kayode's shot for Brentford from the right side of the box is blocked. Sepp van den Berg provided the assist.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Everton: Tyrique George replaces Dwight McNeil.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Everton: Thierno Barry replaces Beto.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Everton: Tim Iroegbunam replaces Idrissa Gueye.
73
Attempt Attempt
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall makes an attacking attempt for Everton, shooting with his left foot from the center of the box, but his shot is saved by Brentford's goalkeeper, Caoimhín Kelleher, in the center of the goal.
73
Attempt Attempt
Shot blocked. Dwight McNeil of Everton had a left-footed shot from the left side of the box that was blocked. The assist was provided by Iliman Ndiaye.
71
Attempt Attempt
Keane Lewis-Potter's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Kevin Schade provided the assist.
70
Update Update
Idrissa Gueye from Everton misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, sending the ball high and wide to the right. The assist came from Vitalii Mykolenko.
70
Attempt Attempt
Dwight McNeil's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist came from Beto.
69
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance for Brentford. Reiss Nelson takes a right-footed shot from outside the box.
65
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Iliman Ndiaye from Everton shoots with his right foot from the center of the box, but Caoimhín Kelleher from Brentford saves it in the left corner. The assist was provided by Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall.
64
Attempt Attempt
Nathan Collins' shot from outside the box is blocked. Reiss Nelson provided the assist.
63
Update Update
Keane Lewis-Potter from Brentford committed a foul.
63
Update Update
James Garner of Everton won a free kick in defense.
61
Update Update
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall of Everton won a free kick in defense.
61
Update Update
Foul committed by Kevin Schade of Brentford.
55
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Schade's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. Dango Ouattara provided the assist with a header.
53
Update Update
Nathan Collins from Brentford misses a chance with a header from the center of the box.
50
Attempt Attempt
Kevin Schade from Brentford missed a chance with a header from the center of the box.
48
Corner Corner
Brentford wins a corner after Jordan Pickford concedes.
47
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
James Garner of Everton receives a yellow card for a foul.
47
Update Update
Foul committed by James Garner of Everton.
47
Update Update
Dango Ouattara from Brentford won a free kick in the attacking area.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Vitalii Mykolenko of Everton.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with the score at Brentford 1, Everton 1.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Vitalii Mykolenko of Everton.
45
Update Update
Vitalii Mykolenko from Everton won a free kick in defense.
45
Update Update
Dango Ouattara fouled a Brentford player.
45
Update Update
The second half starts with the match tied at 1-1 between Brentford and Everton.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Brentford: Reiss Nelson replaces Mikkel Damsgaard.
44
Attempt Attempt
Shot blocked. Dwight McNeil of Everton had a left-footed shot from outside the box that was blocked.
42
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Idrissa Gueye from Everton.
40
Attempt Attempt
Dango Ouattara's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
38
Corner Corner
Mikkel Damsgaard from Brentford misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, but the ball goes high after a corner.
38
Corner Corner
Kevin Schade of Brentford hits the bar with a header from the left side of the box. The assist comes from Mathias Jensen, who provided a cross after a corner.
38
Attempt Attempt
Igor Thiago's shot from the center of the box is blocked.
38
Corner Corner
Mikkel Damsgaard from Brentford misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, but the ball goes high after a corner.
37
Corner Corner
Brentford wins a corner after Vitalii Mykolenko concedes.
34
Corner Corner
Brentford wins a corner after Jordan Pickford concedes.
34
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Mathias Jensen from Brentford shoots with his right foot from the left side of the box, but Jordan Pickford from Everton saves it in the top left corner. The assist was by Igor Thiago.
31
Update Update
Mathias Jensen of Brentford won a free kick in defense.
31
Update Update
Idrissa Gueye from Everton committed a foul.
29
Update Update
Foul committed by Igor Thiago of Brentford.
29
Update Update
James Tarkowski of Everton won a free kick in defense.
26
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The match is now 1-1 as Beto scores for Everton with a header from close range.
22
Update Update
Beto is flagged for offside for Everton.
22
Update Update
Offside called against Everton. Beto is in an offside position.
19
Attempt Attempt
Jarrad Branthwaite from Everton misses a chance with a left-footed shot from outside the box.
16
Update Update
Sepp van den Berg from Brentford won a free kick in defense.
16
Update Update
Beto fouls Everton.
14
Update Update
Mikkel Damsgaard of Brentford committed a foul.
14
Update Update
James Garner of Everton won a free kick in defense.
13
Update Update
Dango Ouattara fouled a Brentford player.
13
Update Update
Vitalii Mykolenko of Everton won a free kick in defense.
9
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Everton after Sepp van den Berg concedes.
9
Attempt Attempt
Beto's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. Iliman Ndiaye provided the assist.
3
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Igor Thiago scores for Brentford with a right-footed shot into the left corner. The match stands at Brentford 1, Everton 0.
2
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jordan Pickford of Everton receives a yellow card for a foul.
2
Update Update
Brentford is awarded a penalty after Kevin Schade is fouled in the penalty area.
2
Update Update
Jordan Pickford of Everton concedes a penalty after committing a foul in the penalty area.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Brentford exhibited a moderate deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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