Aberdeen vs Hibernian Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Pittodrie Stadium Sat, 11 Apr - 2:00 PM
Premiership
Aberdeen ABE
2 Winner 0
Hibernian HIB
Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Kevin Nisbet - 17' (P), 75'
Goal
|
|
Red Card Grant Hanley 16'

CONTEXT

The match is finished, with Aberdeen recording a 2-0 victory over Hibernian at full time. The home side led 1-0 at the interval and added a second goal later, securing a result that stood in sharp contrast to pre-match expectations. Hibernian had been regarded as the stronger side beforehand and were given the higher chance of success, yet Aberdeen produced a significant deviation from that projection to claim the win. The outcome ultimately did not align with the pre-match projection. Possession was closely contested, finishing 53 percent to 47 percent in Aberdeen’s favor. No expected goals data is available, preventing any assessment of alignment with xG. The efficiency shift stayed in line with the general pattern of play, but a red card to Hibernian introduced a clear distortion in the second half that altered the balance of the contest and contributed to the final margin.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Aberdeen showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Ross
D. Ross
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.92
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.46
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
D. Dickinson
D. Dickinson
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.92
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.46
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
R. MacLeod
R. MacLeod
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.92
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.46
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
G. Hanvidge
G. Hanvidge
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 21.92
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.46
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
Aberdeen S. Robinson
S. Robinson
VS
Hibernian D. Gray
D. Gray
1.04
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.72
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
St. Mirren Rank: L
Rangers Rank: L
Falkirk Rank: D
Celtic Rank: L
Hearts Rank: L
Dundee United Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kilmarnock Rank: W
Motherwell Rank: D
Livingston Rank: D
Dundee Rank: D
Celtic Rank: W
St. Mirren Rank: W
29
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
29 - 18 - 20
20

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Aberdeen
27.52%
Draw
27.72%
Away Hibernian
44.76%

Movement

Changes since opening
Aberdeen
-70.32%
Draw
+25.8%
Hibernian
+44.52%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
12.32
32.85
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Aberdeen
Hibernian
Power Score
12.32
32.85
League Position
8
5
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Aberdeen — Opponent-weighted form score
Hibernian — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Aberdeen Hibernian

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Aberdeen

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Hibernian

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Aberdeen ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hibernian
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
36.89
10.85
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
10.85
36.89
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Aberdeen +2.17 Efficiency Index
vs
Hibernian -2.17 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Aberdeen
Hibernian
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Aberdeen ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Hibernian
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Aberdeen Hibernian
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Aberdeen Hibernian
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Aberdeen
Hibernian
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Aberdeen
vs
Hibernian
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Aberdeen Hibernian
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Aberdeen 0.33
Hibernian 0.18
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Aberdeen Hibernian
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Aberdeen 0.00
Hibernian 0.04
Aberdeen
Hibernian
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ABE had peak pressure around 48'.
  • ABE started the game with stronger pressure.
ABE Pressure HIB Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ABE reached the top pressure at 48' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 67 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Aberdeen ABE Home
67 matches
Hibernian HIB Away
Match Record
29
Wins
20
18
Draws
18
20
Losses
29
Goals
87
Goals Scored
78
78
Goals Conceded
87
+9
Goal Difference
-9
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:06:26+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Pitch
D. Mitov
Bulgaria
1 D. Mitov
J. Milne
Scotland
22 J. Milne
L. Morrison
Scotland
23 L. Morrison
G. Molloy
Republic of Ireland
21 G. Molloy
A. Jensen
Denmark
28 A. Jensen
A. Aremu
Substitution
Nigeria
32 A. Aremu
S. Armstrong
Substitution
Scotland
16 S. Armstrong
E. Gyamfi
Substitution
Germany
77 E. Gyamfi
L. Cameron
Substitution
Scotland
25 L. Cameron
T. Olusanya
Substitution
England
20 T. Olusanya
K. Nisbet
Scotland
15 K. Nisbet
R. Sallinger
Austria
1 R. Sallinger
J. Iredale
Substitution
Australia
15 J. Iredale
G. Hanley
Scotland
4 G. Hanley
W. O'Hora
Republic of Ireland
5 W. O'Hora
J. Obita
England
21 J. Obita
D. Barlaser
Substitution
England
22 D. Barlaser
M. Changa Chaiwa
Substitution
Zambia
14 M. Changa Chaiwa
F. Passlack
Germany
25 F. Passlack
J. McGrath
Substitution
Republic of Ireland
17 J. McGrath
D. Scarlett
Substitution
England
44 D. Scarlett
O. Elding
England
47 O. Elding

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 11, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
Pittodrie Stadium
Capacity
20866
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Douglas Ross
David Dickinson
Ross MacLeod
Gary Hanvidge

Statistics

Possession
ABE
53%
HIB
47%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 0
17 Shots 4
51 Dangerous attacks 22
53 Possession 47
3 Corners 3
8 Free kicks 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

30 Throwins 10
8 Dribble Attempts 14
8 Goal Kicks 18
84 Ball Safe 91
12 Successful Headers 12
38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 43
1 Penalties 0
5 Substitutions 5
3 Successful Dribbles 6
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

84 Attacks 93
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

337 Successful Passes 303
65 Long Passes 66
80 Successful Passes Percentage 79
423 Passes 385
27 Successful Long Passes 33
11 Key Passes 1
42 Successful Long Passes Percentage 50

Defensive

8 Interceptions 3
1 Saves 3
13 Tackles 8

Build-up

24 Total Crosses 14
4 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

18 Fouls 9
3 Offsides 4

Lineup

Referee : David Dickinson

Starting XI ▼

1
Dimitar Mitov
Dimitar Mitov Goalkeeper
21
Gavin Molloy
Gavin Molloy Defender
22
Jack Milne
Jack Milne Defender
23
Liam Morrison
Liam Morrison Defender
16
Stuart Armstrong
Stuart Armstrong Midfielder
18
Ante Palaversa
Ante Palaversa
Midfielder80'
28
Alexander Jensen
Alexander Jensen Midfielder
32
Afeez Aremu
Afeez Aremu Midfielder
29
Kjartan Már Kjartansson
Kjartan Már Kjartansson
Midfielder85'
77
Emmanuel Gyamfi
Emmanuel Gyamfi Midfielder
42
Elvis Bwomono
Elvis Bwomono
Defender85'
15
Kevin Nisbet
Kevin Nisbet Attacker
2
20
Toyosi Olusanya
Toyosi Olusanya Attacker
81
Topi Keskinen
Topi Keskinen
Attacker71'
25
Lyall Cameron
Lyall Cameron Attacker
4
Graeme Shinnie
Graeme Shinnie
Midfielder71'
Referee : David Dickinson

Starting XI ▼

1
Raphael Sallinger
Raphael Sallinger Goalkeeper
4
Grant Hanley
Grant Hanley Defender
5
Warren O'Hora
Warren O'Hora Defender
15
Jack Iredale
Jack Iredale Defender
33
Rocky Bushiri
Rocky Bushiri
Defender18'
14
Miguel Chaiwa
Miguel Chaiwa Midfielder
10
Martin Boyle
Martin Boyle
Attacker80'
21
Jordan Obita
Jordan Obita Midfielder
22
Dan Barlaser
Dan Barlaser Midfielder
11
Joe Newell
Joe Newell
Midfielder80'
25
Felix Passlack
Felix Passlack Midfielder
17
Jamie McGrath
Jamie McGrath Attacker
28
Kai Andrews
Kai Andrews
Midfielder80'
44
Dane Scarlett
Dane Scarlett Attacker
77
Ante Suto
Ante Suto
Attacker46'
47
Owen Elding
Owen Elding Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Elvis Bwomono → Emmanuel Gyamfi
9th Substitution
85'
Event
Kjartan Már Kjartansson → Afeez Aremu
10th Substitution
85'
Event
Ante Palaversa → Stuart Armstrong
8th Substitution
80'
80'
Event
Joe Newell → Dan Barlaser
7th Substitution
80'
Event
Kai Andrews → Jamie McGrath
5th Substitution
80'
Event
Martin Boyle → Miguel Chaiwa
6th Substitution
Event
Afeez Aremu
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
78'
Event
Kevin Nisbet
Goal awarded
76'
Event
Kevin Nisbet
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
75'
Event
Topi Keskinen → Toyosi Olusanya
3rd Substitution
71'
Event
Graeme Shinnie → Lyall Cameron
4th Substitution
71'
66'
Event
Owen Elding
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
66'
Event
5th Yellowcard
52'
Event
Dan Barlaser
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
46'
Event
Ante Suto → Dane Scarlett
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Emmanuel Gyamfi
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
45+4'
Event
Emmanuel Gyamfi
Card adjusted
45+3'
18'
Event
Rocky Bushiri → Jack Iredale
1st Substitution
Event
Kevin Nisbet
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
17'
16'
Event
Grant Hanley
Violent conduct / 1st Redcard
Event
Toyosi Olusanya
Penalty awarded
15'

Match Commentary

85
Substitution Substitution
Elvis Bwomono is substituted for Aberdeen in the 85th minute.
85
Substitution Substitution
Kjartan Kjartansson is substituted for Aberdeen in the 85th minute.
80
Substitution Substitution
Martin Boyle is substituted for Hibernian in the 80th minute.
80
Substitution Substitution
Ante Palaversa is substituted for Aberdeen in the 80th minute.
80
Substitution Substitution
Joe Newell of Hibernian is substituted in the 80th minute.
80
Substitution Substitution
Kai Andrews is substituted for Hibernian in the 80th minute.
78
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Aremu Afeez from Aberdeen receives a yellow card in the 78th minute.
75
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Kevin Nisbet scores for Aberdeen in the 75th minute.
71
Substitution Substitution
Topi Keskinen is substituted for Aberdeen in the 71st minute.
71
Substitution Substitution
Graeme Shinnie is substituted for Aberdeen in the 71st minute.
66
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Owen Elding from Hibernian receives a yellow card in the 66th minute.
52
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Daniel Barlaser from Hibernian receives a yellow card in the 52nd minute.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Emmanuel Gyamfi of Aberdeen receives a yellow card in the 49th minute.
45
Substitution Substitution
Ante Suto is substituted for Hibernian at the 45-minute mark.
18
Substitution Substitution
Rocky Bushiri of Hibernian is substituted in the 18th minute.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Aberdeen exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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