Avellino vs Catanzaro Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi Sat, 11 Apr - 3:15 PM
Serie B
Avellino AVE
1 – 1
Catanzaro CAT
Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 3:15 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Antony Iannarilli - 90+5'
Goal
|
Goal
Pietro Iemmello - 60'
|
Second yellow card Nicolò Brighenti 75'

CONTEXT

The match between Avellino and Catanzaro is finished, ending in a 1-1 draw after a goalless first half. Pre-match projections positioned Avellino as narrow favorites, with Catanzaro given only a modest chance of victory, yet the result delivered a significant deviation that particularly affected the visitors, who were regarded as the stronger team overall. The draw ultimately failed to align with the pre-match projection. Catanzaro held the greater share of possession at 56 percent to Avellino’s 44 percent, though no expected goals data is available to further quantify their territorial edge. The efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations despite the numerical imbalance created by Catanzaro’s red card, an event that distorted the second-half dynamics and prevented either side from securing all three points. The final score therefore reflected a hard-fought share of the spoils shaped by that decisive sending-off rather than clear dominance from either team.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Catanzaro showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Politi
M. Politi
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.58
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.89
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.36
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.29
A. Bianchini
A. Bianchini
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.58
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.89
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.36
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.29
P. Tremolada
P. Tremolada
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.58
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.89
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.36
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.29
B. Spina
B. Spina
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.58
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.89
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.36
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.29
Avellino D. Ballardini
D. Ballardini
VS
Catanzaro A. Aquilani
A. Aquilani
1.04
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.88
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Palermo Rank: L
Sampdoria Rank: L
Südtirol Rank: W
Virtus Entella Rank: W
Calcio Padova Rank: W
Venezia Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Monza Rank: D
Cesena Rank: L
Calcio Padova Rank: W
Empoli Rank: W
Carrarese Rank: D
Frosinone Rank: D
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Avellino
36.6%
Draw
28.81%
Away Catanzaro
34.59%

Movement

Changes since opening
Avellino
+36.41%
Draw
+22.4%
Catanzaro
-58.8%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
22.7
28.67
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Avellino
Catanzaro
Power Score
22.7
28.67
League Position
12
5
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Avellino — Opponent-weighted form score
Catanzaro — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Avellino Catanzaro

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Avellino

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Catanzaro

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Avellino ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Catanzaro
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
48.41
14.91
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
14.91
48.41
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Avellino +3.33 Efficiency Index
vs
Catanzaro -3.33 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Avellino
Catanzaro
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Avellino ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Catanzaro
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Avellino Catanzaro
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Avellino Catanzaro
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Avellino
Catanzaro
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Avellino
vs
Catanzaro
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Avellino Catanzaro
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Avellino 0.41
Catanzaro 0.26
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Avellino Catanzaro
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Avellino 0.04
Catanzaro 0.02
Avellino
Catanzaro
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • AVE had peak pressure around 80'.
  • AVE started the game with stronger pressure.
AVE Pressure CAT Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: AVE reached the top pressure at 80' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Avellino AVE Home
3 matches
Catanzaro CAT Away
Match Record
2
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
2
Goals
4
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
4
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:09:18+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-1-2
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
A. Iannarilli
Italy
1 A. Iannarilli
T. Cancellotti
Substitution
Italy
29 T. Cancellotti
L. Šimić
Croatia
44 L. Šimić
P. Enrici
Italy
56 P. Enrici
M. Sala
Italy
3 M. Sala
J. Kumi
Substitution
Italy
16 J. Kumi
L. Palmiero
Italy
6 L. Palmiero
D. Sounas
Substitution
Greece
24 D. Sounas
M. Palumbo
Substitution
Norway
20 M. Palumbo
T. Biasci
Substitution
Italy
14 T. Biasci
R. Russo
Italy
10 R. Russo
M. Pigliacelli
Italy
22 M. Pigliacelli
F. Moreira Pacheco
Substitution
Brazil
6 F. Moreira Pacheco
M. Antonini Lui
Brazil
4 M. Antonini Lui
N. Brighenti
Italy
23 N. Brighenti
F. Di Francesco
Substitution
Italy
94 F. Di Francesco
J. Petriccione
Substitution
Italy
10 J. Petriccione
S. Pontisso
Substitution
Italy
20 S. Pontisso
C. Favasuli
Italy
27 C. Favasuli
F. Rispoli
32 F. Rispoli
M. Liberali
Substitution
Italy
14 M. Liberali
P. Iemmello
Italy
9 P. Iemmello

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 11, 2026, 03:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi
Capacity
26542
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Mattia Politi
Andrea Bianchini
Paride Tremolada
Bruno Spina

Statistics

Possession
AVE
46%
CAT
54%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 2
5 Shots 2
46 Dangerous attacks 27
44 Possession 56
6 Corners 1
9 Free kicks 15
4 Yellow Cards 5
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

12 Dribble Attempts 27
42 Successful Dribbles Percentage 63
7 Goal Kicks 14
19 Throwins 12
5 Successful Dribbles 17
44 Ball Safe 66
9 Goal Attempts 6
5 Substitutions 5
1 Penalties 0
1 Assists 1

Attacking

86 Attacks 87
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

14 Key Passes 7
36 Long Passes 41
61 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44
286 Successful Passes 408
22 Successful Long Passes 18
337 Passes 465
85 Successful Passes Percentage 88

Defensive

1 Saves 3
9 Interceptions 5
19 Tackles 12

Build-up

27 Total Crosses 7
12 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

1 Offsides 0
16 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Paride Tremolada

Starting XI ▼

1
Antony Iannarilli
Antony Iannarilli Goalkeeper
3
Marco Sala
Marco Sala Defender
29
Tommaso Cancellotti
Tommaso Cancellotti Defender
94
Roberto Insigne
Roberto Insigne
Attacker64'
44
Lorenco Simic
Lorenco Simic Defender
56
Patrick Enrici
Patrick Enrici Defender
6
Luca Palmiero
Luca Palmiero Midfielder
16
Justin Kumi
Justin Kumi Midfielder
2
Filippo Missori
Filippo Missori
Defender46'
20
Martin Palumbo
Martin Palumbo Midfielder
99
Andrea Favilli
Andrea Favilli
Attacker63'
24
Dimitrios Sounas
Dimitrios Sounas Midfielder
27
Andréa Le Borgne
Andréa Le Borgne
Midfielder79'
10
Raffaele Russo
Raffaele Russo Attacker
14
Tommaso Biasci
Tommaso Biasci Attacker
9
Cosimo Patierno
Cosimo Patierno
Attacker63'
Referee : Paride Tremolada

Starting XI ▼

22
Mirko Pigliacelli
Mirko Pigliacelli Goalkeeper
4
Matias Antonini
Matias Antonini Defender
6
Fellipe Jack
Fellipe Jack Defender
26
Bruno Verrengia
Bruno Verrengia
Defender86'
23
Nicolò Brighenti
Nicolò Brighenti Defender
10
Jacopo Petriccione
Jacopo Petriccione Midfielder
21
Marco Pompetti
Marco Pompetti
Midfielder31'
20
Simone Pontisso
Simone Pontisso Midfielder
98
Davide Buglio
Davide Buglio
Midfielder79'
27
Costantino Favasuli
Costantino Favasuli Midfielder
94
Federico Di Francesco
Federico Di Francesco Midfielder
62
Ruggero Frosinini
Ruggero Frosinini
Defender79'
9
Pietro Iemmello
Pietro Iemmello Attacker
14
Mattia Liberali
Mattia Liberali Attacker
2
Gonçalo do Lago Pontes Esteves
Gonçalo do Lago Pontes Esteves
Defender79'
32
Fabio Rispoli
Fabio Rispoli Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Antony Iannarilli
Goal awarded
90+6'
Event
Antony Iannarilli
8th Yellowcard
90+6'
Event
Antony Iannarilli
Header / 2nd Goal
90+5'
86'
Event
Bruno Verrengia → Fellipe Jack
10th Substitution
Event
Andréa Le Borgne → Dimitrios Sounas
6th Substitution
79'
79'
Event
Ruggero Frosinini → Federico Di Francesco
9th Substitution
79'
Event
Gonçalo do Lago Pontes Esteves → Mattia Liberali
8th Substitution
79'
Event
Davide Buglio → Simone Pontisso
7th Substitution
Event
Andrea Favilli
GoalkeeperSave
76'
75'
Event
Nicolò Brighenti
Argument / 1st Yellow/red Card
72'
Event
Federico Di Francesco
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
66'
Event
Simone Pontisso
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Roberto Insigne → Tommaso Cancellotti
5th Substitution
64'
Event
Andrea Favilli → Martin Palumbo
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Cosimo Patierno → Tommaso Biasci
4th Substitution
63'
60'
Event
Pietro Iemmello
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
56'
Event
Nicolò Brighenti
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Filippo Missori → Justin Kumi
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Tommaso Cancellotti
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
40'
31'
Event
Marco Pompetti → Jacopo Petriccione
1st Substitution
Event
Dimitrios Sounas
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
29'
Event
Raffaele Russo
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
10'
4'
Event
Jacopo Petriccione
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Catanzaro exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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