Baltika Kaliningrad vs FK Nizjni Novgorod Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Complexe Sportif Jean Bianchi 1 Sat, 11 Apr - 4:30 PM
Premier League
Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad
2 – 2
FK Nizjni Novgorod FK Nizjni Novgorod
Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 4:30 PM
Round 24 Regular Season
E. Ćivić - 48'
Maksim Petrov - 85' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
R. Cephas - 8'
Sven Karič - 90+1'

CONTEXT

The match between Baltika Kaliningrad and FK Nizjni Novgorod is now finished, ending in a 2-2 draw. The visitors led 1-0 at half-time, but the home side responded in the second period to salvage a point in an evenly contested affair. Baltika Kaliningrad entered the fixture as the stronger team and controlled 58 percent of possession against 42 percent for their opponents. However, the draw represented a significant deviation from pre-match expectations for Baltika Kaliningrad. With no expected goals data recorded, direct alignment with that metric cannot be confirmed, though the efficiency shift stayed in line with projections and the result ultimately proved consistent with broader pre-match assessments of a competitive fixture. No red cards were shown to either side, so the outcome was shaped purely by on-field play rather than any disciplinary impact. Both teams traded goals efficiently in what became a shared result despite the home side's territorial edge.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Baltika Kaliningrad showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
V. Kazartsev
V. Kazartsev
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.4
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.76
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.58
A. Khatuev
A. Khatuev
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.4
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.76
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.58
D. Mosyakin
D. Mosyakin
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.4
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.76
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.58
S. Matveev
S. Matveev
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.4
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.76
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.58
Baltika Kaliningrad Y. Nagaytsev
Y. Nagaytsev
VS
FK Nizjni Novgorod A. Shpilevskiy
A. Shpilevskiy
1.92
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.17
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dynamo Makhachkala Rank: D
Sochi Rank: W
CSKA Moskva Rank: W
Rostov Rank: D
Zenit Rank: L
Krylya Sovetov Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rostov Rank: L
Krasnodar Rank: L
Krylya Sovetov Rank: W
Sochi Rank: W
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: L
Dynamo Makhachkala Rank: W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 2 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Baltika Kaliningrad
0%
Draw
0%
Away FK Nizjni Novgorod
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
28.51
15.98
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Baltika Kaliningrad
FK Nizjni Novgorod
Power Score
28.51
15.98
League Position
3
14
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Baltika Kaliningrad — Opponent-weighted form score
FK Nizjni Novgorod — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Baltika Kaliningrad FK Nizjni Novgorod

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Baltika Kaliningrad

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

FK Nizjni Novgorod

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Baltika Kaliningrad ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FK Nizjni Novgorod
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
26.38
20.48
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.48
26.38
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Baltika Kaliningrad +0.67 Efficiency Index
vs
FK Nizjni Novgorod -0.67 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Baltika Kaliningrad
FK Nizjni Novgorod
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Baltika Kaliningrad ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FK Nizjni Novgorod
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Baltika Kaliningrad FK Nizjni Novgorod
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Baltika Kaliningrad FK Nizjni Novgorod
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Baltika Kaliningrad
FK Nizjni Novgorod
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Baltika Kaliningrad
vs
FK Nizjni Novgorod
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Baltika Kaliningrad FK Nizjni Novgorod
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Baltika Kaliningrad 0.28
FK Nizjni Novgorod 0.22
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Baltika Kaliningrad FK Nizjni Novgorod
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Baltika Kaliningrad 0.06
FK Nizjni Novgorod 0.04
Baltika Kaliningrad
FK Nizjni Novgorod
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Baltika Kaliningrad had peak pressure around 51'.
  • Baltika Kaliningrad started the game with stronger pressure.
Baltika Kaliningrad Pressure FK Nizjni Novgorod Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Baltika Kaliningrad reached the top pressure at 51' (58.67).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad Home
3 matches
FK Nizjni Novgorod FK Nizjni Novgorod Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
2
Draws
2
0
Losses
1
Goals
2
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
2
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:10:38+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
I. Kukushkin
Russia
81 I. Kukushkin
S. Varatynov
Russia
2 S. Varatynov
K. Andrade Murillo
Colombia
16 K. Andrade Murillo
A. Filin
Russia
25 A. Filin
I. Manelov
Substitution
Russia
69 I. Manelov
I. Petrov
Substitution
Russia
10 I. Petrov
I. Belikov
26 I. Belikov
M. Beveev
Russia
23 M. Beveev
M. Petrov
Russia
73 M. Petrov
B. Gil Hurtado
Substitution
El Salvador
91 B. Gil Hurtado
N. Titkov
Russia
22 N. Titkov
N. Medvedev
Russia
30 N. Medvedev
S. Karič
Slovenia
25 S. Karič
E. Fariña
Substitution
Panama
24 E. Fariña
V. Aleksandrov
Russia
2 V. Aleksandrov
M. Shnaptsev
Substitution
Russia
70 M. Shnaptsev
Y. Koledin
Russia
3 Y. Koledin
A. Opoku Sarfo
Ghana
6 A. Opoku Sarfo
L. Vešner Tičić
Substitution
Slovenia
29 L. Vešner Tičić
R. Cephas
Substitution
Jamaica
21 R. Cephas
A. Balboa Camacho
Substitution
Uruguay
10 A. Balboa Camacho
O. Olusegun
Nigeria
40 O. Olusegun

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 11, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 24 · Regular Season
Stadium
Complexe Sportif Jean Bianchi 1
Capacity
35212
Attendance
14514
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Vasili Kazartsev
Adlan Khatuev
Dmitri Mosyakin
Stanislav Matveev

Statistics

Possession
Baltika Kaliningrad
56%
FK Nizjni Novgorod
44%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 1
3 Shots 1
46 Dangerous attacks 32
58 Possession 42
4 Corners 5
16 Free kicks 14
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

30 Successful Headers 28
0 Assists 1
21 Throwins 28
46 Successful Dribbles Percentage 35
13 Dribble Attempts 20
6 Successful Dribbles 7
7 Goal Kicks 6
1 Hit Woodwork 0
2 Penalties 0
8 Goal Attempts 6
69 Ball Safe 77
5 Substitutions 5
3 Injuries 1

Attacking

91 Attacks 71

Possession

20 Successful Long Passes 20
210 Successful Passes 127
70 Long Passes 61
29 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33
65 Successful Passes Percentage 55
322 Passes 230

Defensive

7 Interceptions 6
22 Tackles 13
2 Saves 1

Build-up

10 Total Crosses 13
3 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

12 Fouls 16
2 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Vasili Kazartsev

Starting XI ▼

81
I. Kukushkin
I. Kukushkin Goalkeeper
2
S. Varatynov
S. Varatynov Defender
16
K. Andrade
K. Andrade Defender
25
Aleksandr Filin
Aleksandr Filin Defender
10
Ilya Petrov
Ilya Petrov Midfielder
15
T. Yenne
T. Yenne
Attacker46'
23
Mingiyan Beveev
Mingiyan Beveev Midfielder
26
Ivan Belikov
Ivan Belikov Midfielder
69
I. Manelov
I. Manelov Midfielder
77
E. Ćivić
E. Ćivić
Defender46'
22
Nikolai Titkov
Nikolai Titkov Attacker
73
Maksim Petrov
Maksim Petrov Attacker
91
B. Gil
B. Gil Attacker
18
Derik Lacerda
Derik Lacerda
Attacker36'
Referee : Vasili Kazartsev

Starting XI ▼

30
Nikita Medvedev
Nikita Medvedev Goalkeeper
2
Viktor Aleksandrov
Viktor Aleksandrov Defender
24
Edgardo Fariña
Edgardo Fariña Defender
4
Ilya Kirsch
Ilya Kirsch
Defender65'
25
Sven Karič
Sven Karič Defender
70
Maksim Shnaptsev
Maksim Shnaptsev Defender
27
Vyacheslav Grulev
Vyacheslav Grulev
Attacker86'
3
Yuriy Koledin
Yuriy Koledin Midfielder
6
Alex Opoku Sarfo
Alex Opoku Sarfo Midfielder
29
Luka Tičić
Luka Tičić Midfielder
17
E. Smelov
E. Smelov
Midfielder89'
10
Adrián Balboa
Adrián Balboa Attacker
23
Juan Castillo
Juan Castillo
Defender85'
21
R. Cephas
R. Cephas Attacker
14
Matvey Urvantsev
Matvey Urvantsev
Attacker46'
40
Olakunle Olusegun
Olakunle Olusegun Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Sven Karič
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
K. Andrade
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
90'
89'
Event
E. Smelov → Luka Tičić
10th Substitution
86'
Event
Vyacheslav Grulev → Maksim Shnaptsev
9th Substitution
Event
Maksim Petrov
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
85'
85'
Event
Juan Castillo → Adrián Balboa
8th Substitution
Event
Nikolai Titkov
Penalty awarded
84'
Event
Yuriy Kovalev → T. Yenne
7th Substitution
70'
65'
Event
Ilya Kirsch → Edgardo Fariña
6th Substitution
Event
Mikhail Ryadno → E. Ćivić
5th Substitution
58'
Event
E. Ćivić
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
48'
Event
T. Yenne → Ilya Petrov
4th Substitution
46'
Event
E. Ćivić → I. Manelov
2nd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Matvey Urvantsev → R. Cephas
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
37'
Event
Maksim Shnaptsev
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
37'
Event
5th Yellowcard
Event
Derik Lacerda → B. Gil
1st Substitution
36'
23'
Event
R. Cephas
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
23'
Event
4th Yellowcard
8'
Event
R. Cephas
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Baltika Kaliningrad exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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