Baltika Kaliningrad vs FK Nizjni Novgorod Match Preview, Stats & Prediction

2025/2026 Premier League, Russia

Complexe Sportif Jean Bianchi 1 Sat, 11 Apr - 4:30 PM

Premier League

Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad

2 – 2

FK Nizjni Novgorod FK Nizjni Novgorod

Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 4:30 PM

Round 24 Regular Season

Maksim Petrov - 85' (P)

E. Ćivić - 48'

Sven Karič - 90+1'

R. Cephas - 8'

Unknown 37'

CONTEXT

The match between Baltika Kaliningrad and FK Nizjni Novgorod is now finished, ending in a 2-2 draw. The visitors led 1-0 at half-time, but the home side responded in the second period to salvage a point in an evenly contested affair. Baltika Kaliningrad entered the fixture as the stronger team and controlled 58 percent of possession against 42 percent for their opponents. However, the draw represented a significant deviation from pre-match expectations for Baltika Kaliningrad. With no expected goals data recorded, direct alignment with that metric cannot be confirmed, though the efficiency shift stayed in line with projections and the result ultimately proved consistent with broader pre-match assessments of a competitive fixture. No red cards were shown to either side, so the outcome was shaped purely by on-field play rather than any disciplinary impact. Both teams traded goals efficiently in what became a shared result despite the home side's territorial edge.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Baltika Kaliningrad showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: No major event distortion.
Red card distortion: None.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

V. Kazartsev

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Khatuev

1st Assistant

D. Mosyakin

2nd Assistant

S. Matveev

4th Official

Y. Nagaytsev

A. Shpilevskiy

1.92

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.17

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

1 - 2 - 0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Baltika Kaliningrad

Draw

FK Nizjni Novgorod

Team Power Ranking

28.51

15.98

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Baltika Kaliningrad

FK Nizjni Novgorod

Power Score

28.51

15.98

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Baltika Kaliningrad — Opponent-weighted form score

FK Nizjni Novgorod — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Baltika Kaliningrad FK Nizjni Novgorod

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Baltika Kaliningrad

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

FK Nizjni Novgorod

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Baltika Kaliningrad ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy FK Nizjni Novgorod

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

26.38

20.48

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

20.48

26.38

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Baltika Kaliningrad +0.65 Efficiency Index

FK Nizjni Novgorod -0.65 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Baltika Kaliningrad

FK Nizjni Novgorod

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Baltika Kaliningrad ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy FK Nizjni Novgorod

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Baltika Kaliningrad FK Nizjni Novgorod

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

1.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Baltika Kaliningrad FK Nizjni Novgorod

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 1.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Baltika Kaliningrad

FK Nizjni Novgorod

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Baltika Kaliningrad

FK Nizjni Novgorod

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Baltika Kaliningrad FK Nizjni Novgorod

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Transition Efficiency Index Higher = stronger on the counter

Baltika Kaliningrad 0.28

FK Nizjni Novgorod 0.22

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Baltika Kaliningrad FK Nizjni Novgorod

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Vulnerability Index Lower = better transition defence

Baltika Kaliningrad 0.06

FK Nizjni Novgorod 0.04

Baltika Kaliningrad

FK Nizjni Novgorod

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

Baltika Kaliningrad had peak pressure around 51'.
Baltika Kaliningrad started the game with stronger pressure.

Baltika Kaliningrad Pressure FK Nizjni Novgorod Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: Baltika Kaliningrad reached the top pressure at 51' (58.67).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad Home

3 matches

FK Nizjni Novgorod FK Nizjni Novgorod Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

Goal Difference

-2

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:10:38+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3

Match Formation 4-3-3

81 I. Kukushkin

2 S. Varatynov

16 K. Andrade Murillo

25 A. Filin

69 I. Manelov

10 I. Petrov

26 I. Belikov

23 M. Beveev

73 M. Petrov

91 B. Gil Hurtado

22 N. Titkov

30 N. Medvedev

25 S. Karič

24 E. Fariña

2 V. Aleksandrov

70 M. Shnaptsev

3 Y. Koledin

6 A. Opoku Sarfo

29 L. Vešner Tičić

21 R. Cephas

10 A. Balboa Camacho

40 O. Olusegun

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 11, 2026, 04:30 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 24 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Complexe Sportif Jean Bianchi 1

Capacity :

35212

Attendance :

14514

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Vasili Kazartsev

Adlan Khatuev

Dmitri Mosyakin

Stanislav Matveev

Statistics

Possession

Baltika Kaliningrad

56%

FK Nizjni Novgorod

44%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2

1 Big Chances Created 1

3 Shots 1

46 Dangerous attacks 32

58 Possession 42

4 Corners 5

16 Free kicks 14

1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

30 Successful Headers 28

0 Assists 1

21 Throwins 28

46 Successful Dribbles Percentage 35

13 Dribble Attempts 20

6 Successful Dribbles 7

7 Goal Kicks 6

1 Hit Woodwork 0

2 Penalties 0

8 Goal Attempts 6

69 Ball Safe 77

5 Substitutions 5

3 Injuries 1

Attacking

91 Attacks 71

Possession

20 Successful Long Passes 20

210 Successful Passes 127

70 Long Passes 61

29 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33

65 Successful Passes Percentage 55

322 Passes 230

Defensive

7 Interceptions 6

22 Tackles 13

2 Saves 1

Build-up

10 Total Crosses 13

3 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

12 Fouls 16

2 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Vasili Kazartsev

Manager ▼

Y. Nagaytsev Coach

Starting XI ▼

I. Kukushkin Goalkeeper

S. Varatynov Defender

K. Andrade Defender

Aleksandr Filin Defender

Ilya Petrov Midfielder

T. Yenne

Attacker46'

Mingiyan Beveev Midfielder

Ivan Belikov Midfielder

I. Manelov Midfielder

E. Ćivić

Defender46'

Nikolai Titkov Attacker

Maksim Petrov Attacker

B. Gil Attacker

Derik Lacerda

Attacker36'

Substitutes ▼

Derik Lacerda

Attacker36'

T. Yenne

Attacker46'

E. Ćivić

Defender46'

Mikhail Ryadno

Defender58'

Yuriy Kovalev

Midfielder70'

Bench ▼

Egor Lyubakov Goalkeeper

Nathan Gassama Defender

Eduardo Anderson Defender

Aymane Mourid Midfielder

Andrey Mendel Midfielder

Stefan Kovac Midfielder

Chinonso Offor Attacker

Referee : Vasili Kazartsev