Monza vs Bari 1908 Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
U-Power Stadium Sat, 11 Apr - 5:30 PM
Serie B
Monza MON
2 Winner 0
Bari 1908 BAR
Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 5:30 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Pedro Obiang - 50'
Matteo Pessina - 79'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Monza and Bari 1908 is finished, ending in a 2-0 victory for the home side. After an even first half with no goals, Monza pulled clear in the second period to secure the win, dominating possession with 65 percent of the ball against Bari 1908’s 35 percent. Pre-match expectations strongly favored Monza as the stronger team, and the result showed only minimal deviation in their favor. The efficiency shift stayed in line with those projections, producing an outcome that aligned fully with the anticipated result. No red cards were shown, and the lack of major disciplinary events allowed the contest to flow toward the expected home success without disruption. Overall, Monza’s control and clinical finishing confirmed their status, delivering a straightforward result that matched pre-match assessments of the relative quality between the sides.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Monza showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
F. La Penna
F. La Penna
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.64
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.73
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
A. Zezza
A. Zezza
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.64
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.73
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
M. Passeri
M. Passeri
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.64
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.73
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
F. Ramondino
F. Ramondino
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.64
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.73
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
Monza P. Bianco
P. Bianco
VS
Bari 1908 M. Longo
M. Longo
2.12
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.08
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Catanzaro Rank: D
Venezia Rank: D
Reggiana Rank: D
Palermo Rank: W
Spezia Rank: L
Cesena Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Modena Rank: W
Carrarese Rank: L
Frosinone Rank: L
Reggiana Rank: W
Pescara Rank: L
Empoli Rank: W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Monza
97.86%
Draw
1.92%
Away Bari 1908
0.22%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
32.67
20.79
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Monza
Bari 1908
Power Score
32.67
20.79
League Position
3
17
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Monza — Opponent-weighted form score
Bari 1908 — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Monza Bari 1908

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Monza

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Bari 1908

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Monza ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Bari 1908
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
32.08
23.00
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.00
32.08
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Monza +0.90 Efficiency Index
vs
Bari 1908 -0.90 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Monza
Bari 1908
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Monza ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Bari 1908
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Monza Bari 1908
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Monza Bari 1908
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Monza
Bari 1908
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Monza
vs
Bari 1908
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Monza Bari 1908
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Monza 0.32
Bari 1908 0.33
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Monza Bari 1908
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Monza 0.00
Bari 1908 0.04
Monza
Bari 1908
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • MON had peak pressure around 21'.
  • MON started the game with stronger pressure.
MON Pressure BAR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: MON reached the top pressure at 21' (93.69).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Monza MON Home
2 matches
Bari 1908 BAR Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
1
Goals
2
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
2
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T03:04:08+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
D. Thiam
Senegal
20 D. Thiam
L. Ravanelli
Italy
13 L. Ravanelli
F. Delli Carri
Italy
15 F. Delli Carri
L. Lucchesi
Substitution
Italy
3 L. Lucchesi
S. Birindelli
Substitution
Italy
19 S. Birindelli
P. Mba Obiang Avomo
Substitution
Equatorial Guinea
14 P. Mba Obiang Avomo
M. Pessina
Italy
32 M. Pessina
P. Dentello Azzi
Brazil
7 P. Dentello Azzi
A. Colpani
Italy
28 A. Colpani
D. Carvalho
Substitution
Portugal
47 D. Carvalho
A. Petagna
Substitution
Italy
37 A. Petagna
M. Pissardo
Italy
1 M. Pissardo
V. Mantovani
Italy
13 V. Mantovani
C. Odenthal
Netherlands
26 C. Odenthal
A. Cistana
Italy
51 A. Cistana
K. Piscopo
Substitution
Italy
28 K. Piscopo
F. Artioli
Substitution
Italy
80 F. Artioli
G. Maggiore
Italy
18 G. Maggiore
B. Manè
Substitution
Italy
30 B. Manè
E. Rao
Italy
17 E. Rao
T. Pontes Esteves
Substitution
Portugal
19 T. Pontes Esteves
G. Moncini
Substitution
Italy
11 G. Moncini

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 11, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium
U-Power Stadium
Capacity
18568
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Federico La Penna
Andrea Zezza
Matteo Passeri
Fabrizio Ramondino

Statistics

Possession
MON
63%
BAR
37%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
5 Big Chances Created 0
4 Shots 4
57 Dangerous attacks 21
65 Possession 35
7 Corners 1
9 Free kicks 8
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

6 Goal Kicks 7
79 Ball Safe 67
11 Goal Attempts 3
17 Throwins 14
12 Dribble Attempts 11
33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 0
4 Successful Dribbles 0
2 Assists 0
5 Substitutions 5
1 Injuries 0
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

99 Attacks 79
4 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

14 Key Passes 5
23 Successful Long Passes 19
479 Successful Passes 240
87 Successful Passes Percentage 80
552 Passes 301
51 Long Passes 44
45 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43

Defensive

16 Tackles 17
0 Saves 5
1 Interceptions 5

Build-up

18 Total Crosses 10
6 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

6 Fouls 8
2 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Federico La Penna

Starting XI ▼

20
Demba Thiam
Demba Thiam Goalkeeper
3
Lorenzo Lucchesi
Lorenzo Lucchesi Defender
44
Andrea Carboni
Andrea Carboni
Defender89'
13
Luca Ravanelli
Luca Ravanelli Defender
15
Filippo Delli Carri
Filippo Delli Carri Defender
7
Paulo Daniel Dentello Azzi
Paulo Daniel Dentello Azzi Midfielder
14
Pedro Obiang
Pedro Obiang Midfielder
21
Leonardo Colombo
Leonardo Colombo
Midfielder66'
19
Samuele Birindelli
Samuele Birindelli Midfielder
24
Adam Bakoune
Adam Bakoune
Defender67'
32
Matteo Pessina
Matteo Pessina Midfielder
28
Andrea Colpani
Andrea Colpani Attacker
37
Andrea Petagna
Andrea Petagna Attacker
25
Agustín Álvarez
Agustín Álvarez
Attacker83'
47
Dany Mota
Dany Mota Attacker
30
Giuseppe Caso
Giuseppe Caso
Midfielder67'
Referee : Federico La Penna

Starting XI ▼

1
Marco Pissardo
Marco Pissardo Goalkeeper
13
Valerio Mantovani
Valerio Mantovani Defender
26
Cas Odenthal
Cas Odenthal Defender
51
Andrea Cistana
Andrea Cistana Defender
18
Giulio Maggiore
Giulio Maggiore Midfielder
28
Kevin Piscopo
Kevin Piscopo Midfielder
20
Nicolò Cavuoti
Nicolò Cavuoti
Midfielder82'
30
Moussa Mané
Moussa Mané Midfielder
93
Mehdi Dorval
Mehdi Dorval
Defender66'
80
Federico Artioli
Federico Artioli Midfielder
29
Matthias Verreth
Matthias Verreth
Midfielder66'
11
Gabriele Moncini
Gabriele Moncini Attacker
9
Christian Gytkjaer
Christian Gytkjaer
Attacker83'
17
Emanuele Rao
Emanuele Rao Attacker
19
Tomás Esteves
Tomás Esteves Attacker
90
Marvin Cuni
Marvin Cuni
Attacker82'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Mehdi Dorval
Simulation / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Andrea Carboni → Lorenzo Lucchesi
10th Substitution
89'
Event
Agustín Álvarez → Andrea Petagna
8th Substitution
83'
83'
Event
Christian Gytkjaer → Gabriele Moncini
9th Substitution
82'
Event
Marvin Cuni → Tomás Esteves
7th Substitution
82'
Event
Nicolò Cavuoti → Kevin Piscopo
6th Substitution
Event
Matteo Pessina
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
79'
Event
Andrea Petagna
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
70'
Event
Adam Bakoune → Samuele Birindelli
4th Substitution
67'
Event
Giuseppe Caso → Dany Mota
5th Substitution
67'
Event
Leonardo Colombo → Pedro Obiang
1st Substitution
66'
66'
Event
Mehdi Dorval → Moussa Mané
2nd Substitution
66'
Event
Matthias Verreth → Federico Artioli
3rd Substitution
64'
Event
Giulio Maggiore
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Pedro Obiang
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
50'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Monza exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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