Thun vs Basel Prediction, Preview and Stats

Switzerland flag 2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland
Stockhorn Arena Sat, 18 Apr - 6:30 PM
Super League
Thun THU
3 Winner 1
Basel BAS
Full Time Sat, 18 Apr 6:30 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Michael Heule - 53'
Christopher Ibayi - 28'
Goal
|
Goal
Julien Duranville - 56'

CONTEXT

Thun delivered a shock 3-1 victory over Basel in the Swiss Challenge League, overturning pre-match perceptions of Basel as the stronger team. The hosts struck first in the opening half and piled on two more goals after the interval, capitalizing on limited possession of just 41 percent. Basel held 59 percent of the ball and created pressure but squandered chances, managing only a single reply. No red cards marred the contest, and the game proceeded without major interruptions or tactical overhauls. Thun's clinical edge proved decisive against Basel's dominance in territory. This outcome reflects a minimal structural deviation of 2.1 percent, underscoring Thun's opportunistic prowess.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Thun's win registered a minimal 2.1 percent deviation from pre-match structural expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with pre-match projections.
  • xG alignment: xG data absence prevents outcome consistency assessment with expected goals.
  • Market alignment: Result fully aligned with pre-match market positioning.
  • xG expectations: Lack of xG metrics precludes evaluation against performance forecasts.
  • Event impact: Empty event log indicates no impactful second-half adjustments occurred.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion to underlying match metrics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Turkes

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

V. Antony

2nd Assistant

H. Qovanaj

4th Official

M. Sbrissa

1st Assistant

Thun M. Lustrinelli
M. Lustrinelli
VS
Basel S. Lichtsteiner
S. Lichtsteiner
2.29
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.58
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lugano Rank: L
Zürich Rank: L
Grasshopper Rank: W
Young Boys Rank: W
St. Gallen Rank: D
Luzern Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Young Boys Rank: D
Winterthur Rank: W
Servette Rank: W
St. Gallen Rank: L
Grasshopper Rank: W
Lausanne Sport Rank: W
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 15 - 33
33

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Thun
97.86%
Draw
1.92%
Away Basel
0.22%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
25.04
26.54
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Thun
Basel
Power Score
25.04
26.54
League Position
5
4
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Thun — Opponent-weighted form score
Basel — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Thun Basel

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Thun

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Basel

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Thun ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Basel
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
47.32
33.05
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
33.05
47.32
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Thun +1.28 Efficiency Index
vs
Basel -1.28 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Thun
Basel
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Thun ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Basel
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Thun Basel
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Thun Basel
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Thun
Basel
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Thun
vs
Basel
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Thun Basel
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Thun 0.35
Basel 0.34
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Thun Basel
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Thun 0.02
Basel 0.06
Thun
Basel
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • BAS had peak pressure around 60'.
  • BAS started the game with stronger pressure.
THU Pressure BAS Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: BAS reached the top pressure at 60' (81.52).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 54 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Thun THU Home
54 matches
Basel BAS Away
Match Record
6
Wins
33
15
Draws
15
33
Losses
6
Goals
60
Goals Scored
119
119
Goals Conceded
60
-59
Goal Difference
+59

Data last updated: 2026-04-19T00:07:15+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-2-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
N. Steffen
Switzerland
24 N. Steffen
F. Fehr
Switzerland
47 F. Fehr
G. Montolio Lafuente
Spain
4 G. Montolio Lafuente
J. Bamert
Switzerland
19 J. Bamert
M. Heule
Substitution
Switzerland
27 M. Heule
L. Bertone
Switzerland
6 L. Bertone
J. Roth
Substitution
Switzerland
16 J. Roth
F. Meichtry
Substitution
77 F. Meichtry
K. Imeri
Substitution
Switzerland
7 K. Imeri
C. Ibayi
Substitution
France
18 C. Ibayi
E. Rastoder
Switzerland
74 E. Rastoder
Pitch
M. Hitz
Switzerland
1 M. Hitz
D. Schmid
Switzerland
31 D. Schmid
F. Daniliuc
Austria
24 F. Daniliuc
B. Omeragic
Switzerland
4 B. Omeragic
N. Vouilloz
Substitution
Switzerland
3 N. Vouilloz
A. Silu
Substitution
Brazil
5 A. Silu
L. Leroy
Substitution
France
22 L. Leroy
B. Traore
Ivory Coast
11 B. Traore
X. Shaqiri
Switzerland
10 X. Shaqiri
I. Salah
Substitution
Morocco
21 I. Salah
A. Ajeti
Substitution
Switzerland
23 A. Ajeti

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 18, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stockhorn Arena
Capacity :
10398
Attendance :
10014
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Mirel Turkes
Venancius Antony
Hajrim Qovanaj
Matthias Sbrissa

Statistics

Possession
THU
43%
BAS
57%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 3
2 Shots 6
48 Dangerous attacks 50
41 Possession 59
5 Corners 8
8 Free kicks 19
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

1 Hit Woodwork 0
8 Goal Kicks 4
45 Successful Dribbles Percentage 80
17 Throwins 20
20 Dribble Attempts 15
9 Successful Dribbles 12
3 Assists 1
5 Substitutions 5
2 Injuries 3
11 Goal Attempts 11
54 Ball Safe 87

Attacking

72 Attacks 79
0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

285 Passes 412
61 Long Passes 57
27 Successful Long Passes 34
76 Successful Passes Percentage 81
44 Successful Long Passes Percentage 60
216 Successful Passes 335
10 Key Passes 14

Defensive

17 Tackles 15
4 Saves 5
44 Duels Won 58
14 Interceptions 10

Build-up

16 Total Crosses 18
1 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

19 Fouls 8
3 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Mirel Turkes

Starting XI ▼

24
Niklas Steffen
Niklas Steffen Goalkeeper
6.92
4
Genís Montolio
Genís Montolio Defender
7.11
19
Jan Bamert
Jan Bamert Defender
7.01
27
Michael Heule
Michael Heule Defender
6.99
23
Marco Bürki
Marco Bürki
Defender90+1'
6.86
47
Fabio Fehr
Fabio Fehr Defender
7.15
6
Leonardo Bertone
Leonardo Bertone Midfielder
7.04
7
Kastriot Imeri
Kastriot Imeri Midfielder
7.01
14
Mattias Käit
Mattias Käit
Midfielder63'
6.92
16
Justin Roth
Justin Roth Midfielder
6.79
96
Brighton Labeau
Brighton Labeau
Attacker74'
6.75
77
Franz-Ethan Meichtry
Franz-Ethan Meichtry Midfielder
6.85
20
Noah Rupp
Noah Rupp
Midfielder63'
6.6
18
Christopher Ibayi
Christopher Ibayi Attacker
6.96
78
Valmir Matoshi
Valmir Matoshi
Midfielder74'
6.69
74
Elmin Rastoder
Elmin Rastoder Attacker
7.04
Referee : Mirel Turkes

Starting XI ▼

1
Marwin Hitz
Marwin Hitz Goalkeeper
7.2
3
Nicolas Vouilloz
Nicolas Vouilloz Defender
6.91
27
Kevin Rüegg
Kevin Rüegg
Defender59'
6.53
4
Becir Omeragic
Becir Omeragic Defender
6.79
24
Flavius Daniliuc
Flavius Daniliuc Defender
7.09
31
Dominik Schmid
Dominik Schmid Defender
7.35
5
Metinho
Metinho Midfielder
7.02
17
Moritz Broschinski
Moritz Broschinski
Attacker90+1'
6.48
10
Xherdan Shaqiri
Xherdan Shaqiri Midfielder
7.4
11
Bénie Traoré
Bénie Traoré Midfielder
7.01
21
Ibrahim Salah
Ibrahim Salah Midfielder
6.92
18
Julien Duranville
Julien Duranville
Attacker46'
6.62
22
Léo Leroy
Léo Leroy Midfielder
6.88
8
Koba Koindredi
Koba Koindredi
Midfielder70'
6.67
23
Albian Ajeti
Albian Ajeti Attacker
6.63
37
Giacomo Koloto
Giacomo Koloto
Attacker69'
6.77

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Marco Bürki
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+3'
Event
Marco Bürki → Michael Heule
10th Substitution
90+1'
90+1'
Event
Moritz Broschinski  → Metinho 
9th Substitution
80'
Event
Xherdan Shaqiri  
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Brighton Labeau → Justin Roth
7th Substitution
74'
Event
Valmir Matoshi → Christopher Ibayi
8th Substitution
74'
70'
Event
Koba Koindredi → Léo Leroy
6th Substitution
69'
Event
Giacomo Koloto → Albian Ajeti
5th Substitution
Event
Elmin Rastoder
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
64'
Event
Mattias Käit → Kastriot Imeri
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Noah Rupp → Franz-Ethan Meichtry
4th Substitution
63'
59'
Event
Kevin Rüegg → Nicolas Vouilloz
2nd Substitution
58'
Event
Léo Leroy
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
56'
Event
Julien Duranville
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Michael Heule
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
53'
46'
Event
Julien Duranville → Ibrahim Salah
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Christopher Ibayi
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
28'
27'
Event
Ibrahim Salah
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Genís Montolio
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
14'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Thun exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Thun vs Basel preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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