Sint-Truiden vs Club Brugge Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Stayen Stadion Sat, 11 Apr - 6:45 PM
Pro League
Sint-Truiden SIT
1 Winner 2
Club Brugge BRU
Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 6:45 PM
Round 2 Championship Round
Ryotaro Ito - 22'
Goal
|
Goal
Hugo Vetlesen - 48'
Christos Tzolis - 80' (P)

CONTEXT

The match between Sint-Truiden and Club Brugge is now finished, ending 1-2 to the visitors. Club Brugge overturned a half-time deficit to claim all three points, with Sint-Truiden leading 1-0 at the break before the away side responded in the second period. Pre-match forecasts positioned Club Brugge as clear favorites with an implied win probability near 51 percent, while Sint-Truiden sat at roughly 25 percent. The result marked a significant deviation for Club Brugge, who converted their status as the stronger side into a victory that ultimately aligned with the broader pre-match projection. Possession stayed remarkably balanced at 52 percent for the hosts and 48 percent for the visitors, though no expected goals data was available to measure underlying performance. The efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations and no red cards occurred, so the outcome was not shaped by disciplinary events. Overall the contest followed a logical path once Club Brugge adjusted after the interval, confirming their superiority on the day. (168 words)

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Club Brugge showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
L. D'hondt
L. D'hondt
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.29
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.73
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
Sint-Truiden W. Vrancken
W. Vrancken
VS
Club Brugge I. Leko
I. Leko
1.9
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.19
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: L
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: L
Genk Rank: L
Cercle Brugge Rank: W
Antwerp Rank: L
Dender Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Anderlecht Rank: W
Mechelen Rank: W
Westerlo Rank: W
Anderlecht Rank: D
Sporting Charleroi Rank: W
OH Leuven Rank: W
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 10 - 22
22

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sint-Truiden
25.39%
Draw
23.87%
Away Club Brugge
50.74%

Movement

Changes since opening
Sint-Truiden
+24.91%
Draw
+16.5%
Club Brugge
-41.41%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
19.81
36.42
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sint-Truiden
Club Brugge
Power Score
19.81
36.42
League Position
5
2
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sint-Truiden — Opponent-weighted form score
Club Brugge — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sint-Truiden Club Brugge

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sint-Truiden

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Club Brugge

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sint-Truiden ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Club Brugge
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
42.21
37.81
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
37.81
42.21
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sint-Truiden +0.39 Efficiency Index
vs
Club Brugge -0.39 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sint-Truiden
Club Brugge
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sint-Truiden ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Club Brugge
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sint-Truiden Club Brugge
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sint-Truiden Club Brugge
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sint-Truiden
Club Brugge
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Sint-Truiden
vs
Club Brugge
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sint-Truiden Club Brugge
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Sint-Truiden 0.32
Club Brugge 0.37
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sint-Truiden Club Brugge
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Sint-Truiden 0.05
Club Brugge 0.02
Sint-Truiden
Club Brugge
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SIT had peak pressure around 99'.
  • BRU started the game with stronger pressure.
SIT Pressure BRU Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SIT reached the top pressure at 99' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 36 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sint-Truiden SIT Home
36 matches
Club Brugge BRU Away
Match Record
4
Wins
22
10
Draws
10
22
Losses
4
Goals
34
Goals Scored
74
74
Goals Conceded
34
-40
Goal Difference
+40
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T03:04:49+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
L. Kokubo
Japan
16 L. Kokubo
R. Vanwesemael
Substitution
Belgium
60 R. Vanwesemael
S. Taniguchi
Japan
5 S. Taniguchi
V. Musliu
Macedonia
26 V. Musliu
T. Hata
Substitution
Japan
3 T. Hata
R. Yamamoto
Japan
6 R. Yamamoto
A. Sissako
France
8 A. Sissako
A. Muja
Substitution
Albania
7 A. Muja
R. Ito
Substitution
Japan
13 R. Ito
I. Sebaoui
Morocco
10 I. Sebaoui
K. Goto
Japan
42 K. Goto
N. Jackers
Belgium
29 N. Jackers
J. Seys
Belgium
65 J. Seys
B. Mechele
Belgium
44 B. Mechele
J. Ordóñez Guerrero
Ecuador
4 J. Ordóñez Guerrero
K. Sabbe
Substitution
Belgium
64 K. Sabbe
R. Nwadike
Substitution
Nigeria
15 R. Nwadike
A. Stankovic
Serbia
25 A. Stankovic
C. Tzolis
Greece
8 C. Tzolis
H. Vanaken
Belgium
20 H. Vanaken
C. Borges
Substitution
Portugal
9 C. Borges
N. Tresoldi
Substitution
Germany
7 N. Tresoldi

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 11, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 2 · Championship Round
Stadium
Stayen Stadion
Capacity
14600
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Lothar D'hondt

Statistics

Possession
SIT
51%
BRU
49%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
4 Big Chances Created 3
6 Shots 7
59 Dangerous attacks 43
52 Possession 48
10 Corners 5
16 Free kicks 12
3 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

0 Penalties 1
67 Ball Safe 73
13 Goal Attempts 9
7 Dribble Attempts 11
2 Successful Dribbles 6
23 Throwins 15
29 Successful Dribbles Percentage 55
8 Goal Kicks 5
1 Assists 0
4 Substitutions 5
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

85 Attacks 92
3 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

11 Key Passes 10
41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 54
84 Successful Passes Percentage 83
486 Passes 460
49 Long Passes 54
408 Successful Passes 380
20 Successful Long Passes 29

Defensive

16 Tackles 15
16 Interceptions 8
0 Saves 4

Build-up

21 Total Crosses 10
5 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

1 Offsides 1
13 Fouls 16

Lineup

Referee : Lothar D'hondt

Starting XI ▼

16
Leo Kokubo
Leo Kokubo Goalkeeper
3
Taiga Hata
Taiga Hata Defender
77
Oumar Diouf
Oumar Diouf
Attacker86'
5
Shogo Taniguchi
Shogo Taniguchi Defender
26
Visar Musliu
Visar Musliu Defender
60
Robert-Jan Vanwesemael
Robert-Jan Vanwesemael Defender
14
Ryan Merlen
Ryan Merlen
Midfielder82'
6
Rihito Yamamoto
Rihito Yamamoto Midfielder
7
Arbnor Muja
Arbnor Muja Midfielder
38
Kaito Matsuzawa
Kaito Matsuzawa
Attacker74'
8
Abdoulaye Sissako
Abdoulaye Sissako Midfielder
10
Ilias Sebaoui
Ilias Sebaoui Midfielder
13
Ryotaro Ito
Ryotaro Ito Midfielder
23
Joedrick Pupe
Joedrick Pupe
Defender86'
42
Keisuke Goto
Keisuke Goto Attacker
Referee : Lothar D'hondt

Starting XI ▼

29
Nordin Jackers
Nordin Jackers Goalkeeper
4
Joel Ordóñez
Joel Ordóñez Defender
44
Brandon Mechele
Brandon Mechele Defender
64
Kyriani Sabbe
Kyriani Sabbe Defender
41
Hugo Siquet
Hugo Siquet
Defender29'
65
Joaquin Seys
Joaquin Seys Defender
8
Christos Tzolis
Christos Tzolis Midfielder
9
Carlos Forbs
Carlos Forbs Midfielder
67
Mamadou Diakhon
Mamadou Diakhon
Attacker29'
15
Raphael Onyedika
Raphael Onyedika Midfielder
58
Jorne Spileers
Jorne Spileers
Defender89'
20
Hans Vanaken
Hans Vanaken Midfielder
25
Aleksandar Stanković
Aleksandar Stanković Midfielder
7
Nicolò Tresoldi
Nicolò Tresoldi Attacker
17
Romeo Vermant
Romeo Vermant
Attacker83'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+6'
Event
Jorne Spileers
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
90+6'
Event
Hugo Vetlesen
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
89'
Event
Jorne Spileers → Raphael Onyedika
9th Substitution
Event
Oumar Diouf
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
87'
Event
Oumar Diouf → Taiga Hata
7th Substitution
86'
Event
Joedrick Pupe → Ryotaro Ito
8th Substitution
86'
83'
Event
Romeo Vermant → Nicolò Tresoldi
6th Substitution
Event
Ryan Merlen → Robert-Jan Vanwesemael
5th Substitution
82'
80'
Event
Christos Tzolis
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
Event
Kaito Matsuzawa → Arbnor Muja
4th Substitution
74'
Event
Ilias Sebaoui
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
58'
Event
Leo Kokubo
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
48'
48'
Event
Hugo Vetlesen
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
46'
Event
Hugo Vetlesen → Mamadou Diakhon
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
29'
Event
Mamadou Diakhon → Carlos Forbs
1st Substitution
29'
Event
Hugo Siquet → Kyriani Sabbe
2nd Substitution
Event
Ryotaro Ito
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
22'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Club Brugge exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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