Córdoba vs Real Zaragoza Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio Nuevo Arcángel Sat, 11 Apr - 7:00 PM
La Liga 2
Córdoba Córdoba
1 Winner 0
Real Zaragoza ZAR
Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 7:00 PM
Round 35 Regular Season
Rubén Alves - 71'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Córdoba and Real Zaragoza is finished, with the full-time score 1-0 to the home side. After an even first half that ended goalless, Córdoba scored once in the second period to secure the win. Pre-match projections gave Córdoba a 48.8 percent chance of victory, Real Zaragoza 24.7 percent, and the draw 26.5 percent. The result represented a significant deviation in favor of Córdoba, who claimed all three points despite Real Zaragoza being regarded as the stronger team. Córdoba also held the greater share of possession at 57 percent to 43 percent. The efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations and the outcome aligned with the pre-match projection. No red cards were shown and no other major events altered the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Córdoba showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
S. Lax Franco
S. Lax Franco
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.49
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.57
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.3
Córdoba I. Ania Cadavieco
I. Ania Cadavieco
VS
Real Zaragoza D. Navarro Arenaz
D. Navarro Arenaz
1.38
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.08
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cádiz Rank: W
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: L
Mirandés Rank: D
Burgos Rank: L
Real Sociedad II Rank: L
Racing Santander Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Mirandés Rank: L
Leganés Rank: D
Racing Santander Rank: W
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: L
Almería Rank: W
Cádiz Rank: W
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 4 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Córdoba
48.81%
Draw
26.47%
Away Real Zaragoza
24.73%

Movement

Changes since opening
Córdoba
-45.91%
Draw
+21.38%
Real Zaragoza
+24.54%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
19.37
26.36
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Córdoba
Real Zaragoza
Power Score
19.37
26.36
League Position
11
19
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Córdoba — Opponent-weighted form score
Real Zaragoza — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Córdoba Real Zaragoza

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Córdoba

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Real Zaragoza

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Córdoba ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Real Zaragoza
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.86
27.21
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
27.21
28.86
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Córdoba +0.16 Efficiency Index
vs
Real Zaragoza -0.16 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Córdoba
Real Zaragoza
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Córdoba ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Real Zaragoza
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Córdoba Real Zaragoza
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Córdoba Real Zaragoza
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Córdoba
Real Zaragoza
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Córdoba
vs
Real Zaragoza
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Córdoba Real Zaragoza
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Córdoba 0.19
Real Zaragoza 0.29
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Córdoba Real Zaragoza
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Córdoba 0.00
Real Zaragoza 0.01
Córdoba
Real Zaragoza
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Córdoba had peak pressure around 17'.
  • Córdoba started the game with stronger pressure.
Córdoba Pressure ZAR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Córdoba reached the top pressure at 17' (99.90).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 15 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Córdoba Córdoba Home
15 matches
Real Zaragoza ZAR Away
Match Record
4
Wins
7
4
Draws
4
7
Losses
4
Goals
13
Goals Scored
20
20
Goals Conceded
13
-7
Goal Difference
+7
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T01:01:47+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
I. Iker
Andorra
1 I. Iker
C. Albarrán Sanz
Spain
21 C. Albarrán Sanz
J. Martín Valerón
Spain
4 J. Martín Valerón
R. González Alves
Brazil
16 R. González Alves
I. Vilarrasa Palacios
Substitution
Spain
2 I. Vilarrasa Palacios
D. Requena Sánchez
Spain
30 D. Requena Sánchez
I. Ruiz Sánchez
Substitution
Spain
8 I. Ruiz Sánchez
M. Goti López
Substitution
Spain
25 M. Goti López
C. Carracedo García
Spain
23 C. Carracedo García
A. Fuentes González
Substitution
Spain
18 A. Fuentes González
K. Villodres Medina
Substitution
Spain
11 K. Villodres Medina
E. Andrada
Argentina
1 E. Andrada
D. Esmorís Tasende
Spain
3 D. Esmorís Tasende
A. Radovanović
Serbia
16 A. Radovanović
J. El Yamiq
Morocco
18 J. El Yamiq
M. Aguirregabiria Padilla
Substitution
Spain
20 M. Aguirregabiria Padilla
M. Mensah Vadze
Substitution
Ghana
26 M. Mensah Vadze
Y. Saidu
33 Y. Saidu
J. Larios López
Substitution
Spain
27 J. Larios López
A. Moya Vega
Substitution
Spain
8 A. Moya Vega
M. Cuenca Aranda
Substitution
Spain
23 M. Cuenca Aranda
D. Gómez Alcón
Spain
9 D. Gómez Alcón

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 11, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio Nuevo Arcángel
Capacity
21384
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Salvador Lax Franco

Statistics

Possession
Córdoba
54%
ZAR
46%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 1
4 Shots 2
69 Dangerous attacks 34
57 Possession 43
5 Corners 5
16 Free kicks 16
3 Yellow Cards 6

Match Overview

1 Injuries 0
1 Assists 0
1 Hit Woodwork 0
5 Substitutions 5
19 Dribble Attempts 16
47 Successful Dribbles Percentage 56
20 Throwins 13
8 Goal Kicks 9
9 Goal Attempts 6
9 Successful Dribbles 9
71 Ball Safe 73

Attacking

81 Attacks 93
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

308 Successful Passes 219
48 Long Passes 74
25 Successful Long Passes 35
10 Key Passes 6
52 Successful Long Passes Percentage 47
82 Successful Passes Percentage 75
375 Passes 293

Defensive

2 Saves 3
12 Tackles 14
7 Interceptions 10

Build-up

21 Total Crosses 14
5 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

14 Fouls 17
3 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Salvador Lax Franco

Starting XI ▼

1
Iker Álvarez
Iker Álvarez Goalkeeper
2
Ignasi Vilarrasa
Ignasi Vilarrasa Defender
5
Diego Bri
Diego Bri
Attacker68'
4
Álex Martín
Álex Martín Defender
16
Rubén Alves
Rubén Alves Defender
21
Carlos Albarrán
Carlos Albarrán Defender
8
Isma Ruiz
Isma Ruiz Midfielder
20
Alberto del Moral
Alberto del Moral
Midfielder46'
25
Mikel Goti
Mikel Goti Midfielder
19
Dalisson de Almeida
Dalisson de Almeida
Midfielder76'
30
Dani Requena
Dani Requena Midfielder
11
Kevin Medina
Kevin Medina Attacker
6
Diego Percan
Diego Percan
Attacker76'
18
Adrián Fuentes
Adrián Fuentes Attacker
9
Nikolay Obolskiy
Nikolay Obolskiy
Attacker81'
23
Cristian Carracedo
Cristian Carracedo Attacker
Referee : Salvador Lax Franco

Starting XI ▼

1
Esteban Andrada
Esteban Andrada Goalkeeper
3
Dani Tasende
Dani Tasende Defender
16
Aleksandar Radovanovic
Aleksandar Radovanovic Defender
18
Jawad El Yamiq
Jawad El Yamiq Defender
20
Martín Aguirregabiria
Martín Aguirregabiria Defender
2
Juan Sebastián
Juan Sebastián
Defender89'
8
Toni Moya
Toni Moya Midfielder
31
Hugo Pinilla
Hugo Pinilla
Midfielder69'
23
Marcos Cuenca
Marcos Cuenca Midfielder
25
Nikola Cumic
Nikola Cumic
Attacker78'
26
Mawuli Kwame Mensah Vadze
Mawuli Kwame Mensah Vadze Midfielder
17
Sebas Moyano
Sebas Moyano
Attacker89'
27
Juan Larios
Juan Larios Midfielder
19
Kenan Kodro
Kenan Kodro
Attacker78'
33
Yussif Saidu
Yussif Saidu Midfielder
9
Dani Gómez
Dani Gómez Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Nikola Cumic
Foul / 9th Yellowcard
Event
Carlos Albarrán
Foul / 8th Yellowcard
90+2'
89'
Event
Sebas Moyano → Mawuli Kwame Mensah Vadze
9th Substitution
89'
Event
Juan Sebastián → Martín Aguirregabiria
10th Substitution
Event
Rubén Alves
Goal disallowed
88'
Event
Iker Álvarez
Time wasting / 7th Yellowcard
84'
Event
Nikolay Obolskiy → Adrián Fuentes
8th Substitution
81'
78'
Event
Nikola Cumic → Marcos Cuenca
6th Substitution
78'
Event
Kenan Kodro → Juan Larios
7th Substitution
Event
Dalisson de Almeida → Mikel Goti
4th Substitution
76'
Event
Diego Percan → Kevin Medina
5th Substitution
76'
75'
Event
Marcos Cuenca
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
75'
Event
10th Yellowcard
73'
Event
Hugo Pinilla
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Rubén Alves
Header / 1st Goal
71'
69'
Event
Hugo Pinilla → Toni Moya
3rd Substitution
Event
Diego Bri → Ignasi Vilarrasa
2nd Substitution
68'
62'
Event
Toni Moya
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
47'
Event
Juan Larios
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Alberto del Moral → Isma Ruiz
1st Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Jawad El Yamiq
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Isma Ruiz
Time wasting / 1st Yellowcard
45+2'
Event
Kevin Medina
Goal disallowed
22'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Córdoba exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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