Estrela Amadora vs Sporting CP Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Liga Portugal
Sporting CP
SCP
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
CONTEXT
The match between Estrela Amadora and Sporting CP is now finished, ending with a full-time score of 0-1 in favor of the visitors. After an even first half with no goals, Sporting CP found the decisive strike in the second period to claim victory. Pre-match expectations strongly favored Sporting CP at 76.1 percent implied win probability against just 8 percent for the home side. The result showed a significant deviation for Sporting CP, yet they fulfilled their status as the stronger team by securing the win, with the outcome proving aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was markedly one-sided, as Sporting CP controlled 67 percent of the ball compared to Estrela Amadora’s 33 percent. No expected goals data was available to measure alignment precisely, but the efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations and no red cards disrupted proceedings for either team. Overall the contest reflected Sporting CP’s superiority without major late adjustments, producing a result that matched their pre-match standing despite the noted deviation.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: Sporting CP showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
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Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
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xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
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Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
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xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
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Event impact: No major event distortion.
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Red card distortion: None.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Estrela Amadora
Sporting CP
Movement
Changes since opening
Estrela Amadora
Sporting CP
Team Power Ranking
i
15.05
36.73
Estrela Amadora
Sporting CP
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
Estrela Amadora
Sporting CP
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Estrela Amadora
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Estrela Amadora
⚠ Proxy
Estrela Amadora
Sporting CP
Estrela Amadora
Sporting CP
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
Estrela Amadora
Estrela Amadora
Sporting CP
Estrela Amadora
Sporting CP
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- SCP had peak pressure around 35'.
- SCP started the game with stronger pressure.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Match Record
Goals
Expected Goals
Data last updated: 2026-04-12T01:02:11+00:00
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General Information
Next Match
Estrela Amadora
vs
Arouca
League: Liga Portugal
Kickoff: Sun, 19 Apr - 2:30 PM
Venue: Estádio Municipal de Arouca
Sporting CP
vs
Arsenal
League: Champions League
Kickoff: Wed, 15 Apr - 7:00 PM
Venue: Emirates Stadium
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
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Match Commentary