SK Poltava vs Polissya Zhytomyr Prediction, Preview and Stats

Ukraine flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Stadion Zirka Fri, 10 Apr - 10:00 AM
Premier League
SK Poltava SK Poltava
0 Winner 4
Polissya Zhytomyr Polissya Zhytomyr
Full Time Fri, 10 Apr 10:00 AM
Round 23 Regular Season
|
Goal
Oleksiy Gutsulyak - 10' (P)
Oleksandr Andriyevskyi - 14'
Eduard Sarapiy - 34'
Giorgi Maisuradze - 71'
Yevgen Misyura 33' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

The match between SK Poltava and Polissya Zhytomyr is now finished, ending 0-4 to the visitors. Polissya Zhytomyr took a commanding 3-0 lead by halftime and added one more goal after the break, producing a comprehensive victory that matched their status as the stronger side. Pre-match expectations gave Polissya Zhytomyr an 81.4 percent implied probability of winning, with the hosts rated at just 5 percent. The result represented a significant deviation in favor of Polissya Zhytomyr, who converted their dominance into a four-goal margin. Possession was relatively balanced at 53 percent for SK Poltava and 47 percent for the away team, yet the visitors proved far more effective in attack. No xG data is available to measure underlying performance. The efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations, and the outcome aligned with the pre-match projection. A red card to the home side created second-half distortion, reducing Polissya Zhytomyr’s need to take risks while allowing them to control the remainder of the contest without reply.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Polissya Zhytomyr showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Ohanesian
D. Ohanesian
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.74
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.44
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
A. Bakhmetyev
A. Bakhmetyev
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.74
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.44
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
I. Stashuk
I. Stashuk
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.74
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.44
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
V. Novokhatny
V. Novokhatny
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.74
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.44
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
SK Poltava P. Matviychenko
P. Matviychenko
VS
Polissya Zhytomyr R. Rotan
R. Rotan
0.43
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Oleksandria Rank: D
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Rank: L
Karpaty Rank: L
Zorya Luhansk Rank: L
Kudrivka Rank: L
Veres Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Veres Rank: D
Kudrivka Rank: W
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Rank: W
Dynamo Kyiv Rank: L
LNZ Cherkasy Rank: W
Kolos Kovalivka Rank: W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home SK Poltava
4.99%
Draw
13.58%
Away Polissya Zhytomyr
81.43%

Movement

Changes since opening
SK Poltava
+2.23%
Draw
+10.34%
Polissya Zhytomyr
-12.56%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
10.97
38.44
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
SK Poltava
Polissya Zhytomyr
Power Score
10.97
38.44
League Position
16
3
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
SK Poltava — Opponent-weighted form score
Polissya Zhytomyr — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) SK Poltava Polissya Zhytomyr

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

SK Poltava

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Polissya Zhytomyr

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

SK Poltava ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Polissya Zhytomyr
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
4.34
54.89
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
54.89
4.34
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
SK Poltava -5.09 Efficiency Index
vs
Polissya Zhytomyr +5.09 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
SK Poltava
Polissya Zhytomyr
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

SK Poltava ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Polissya Zhytomyr
Created Set-piece attacking threat
SK Poltava Polissya Zhytomyr
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
SK Poltava Polissya Zhytomyr
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
SK Poltava
Polissya Zhytomyr
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
SK Poltava
vs
Polissya Zhytomyr
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
SK Poltava Polissya Zhytomyr
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
SK Poltava 0.33
Polissya Zhytomyr 0.29
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
SK Poltava Polissya Zhytomyr
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
SK Poltava 0.05
Polissya Zhytomyr 0.00
SK Poltava
Polissya Zhytomyr
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Polissya Zhytomyr had peak pressure around 9'.
  • Polissya Zhytomyr started the game with stronger pressure.
SK Poltava Pressure Polissya Zhytomyr Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Polissya Zhytomyr reached the top pressure at 9' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

SK Poltava SK Poltava Home
1 matches
Polissya Zhytomyr Polissya Zhytomyr Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
0
-4
Goal Difference
+4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-11T00:00:58+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
M. Minchev
Ukraine
1 M. Minchev
M. Buzhyn
Ukraine
19 M. Buzhyn
A. Savenkov
Ukraine
12 A. Savenkov
E. Misyura
Ukraine
20 E. Misyura
I. Ukhan
Substitution
Ukraine
24 I. Ukhan
V. Odariuk
Ukraine
8 V. Odariuk
A. Doroshenko
Substitution
Ukraine
21 A. Doroshenko
V. Danilenko
Substitution
Ukraine
15 (C) V. Danilenko
M. Kononov
Ukraine
2 M. Kononov
B. Kobzar
Substitution
Ukraine
93 B. Kobzar
D. Sukhoruchko
Ukraine
38 D. Sukhoruchko
E. Volynets
Ukraine
23 E. Volynets
B. Mykhaylichenko
Ukraine
15 B. Mykhaylichenko
E. Sarapiy
Substitution
Ukraine
5 (C) E. Sarapiy
S. Chobotenko
Substitution
Ukraine
44 S. Chobotenko
G. Maisuradze
Georgia
31 G. Maisuradze
O. Fedor
Substitution
Ukraine
27 O. Fedor
I. Krasniqi
Kosovo
16 I. Krasniqi
O. Andrievsky
Substitution
Ukraine
18 O. Andrievsky
M. Bragaru
Ukraine
45 M. Bragaru
M. Gayduchyk
Ukraine
89 M. Gayduchyk
O. Hutsuliak
Substitution
Ukraine
11 O. Hutsuliak

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 10, 2026, 10:00 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine · Round 23 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Zirka
Capacity
13667
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Dmytro Ohanesian
Andrii Bakhmetyev
Igor Stashuk
Volodymyr Novokhatny

Statistics

Possession
SK Poltava
32%
Polissya Zhytomyr
68%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 4
2 Shots 22
6 Dangerous attacks 76
53 Possession 47
0 Corners 13
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

15 Goal Kicks 3
0 Penalties 1
0 Assists 2
4 Substitutions 5

Attacking

44 Attacks 92

Defensive

7 Saves 1

Discipline

5 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Volodymyr Novokhatny

Starting XI ▼

1
Mykyta Minchev
Mykyta Minchev Goalkeeper
5.38
2
Mykyta Kononov
Mykyta Kononov Defender
5.7
12
Andriy Savenkov
Andriy Savenkov Defender
5.7
19
Mykola Buzhyn
Mykola Buzhyn Defender
5.7
20
Yevgen Misyura
Yevgen Misyura Defender
5.48
24
Ilya Ukhan
Ilya Ukhan Defender
5.7
95
Igor Kotsyumaka
Igor Kotsyumaka
Defender78'
6.5
8
Volodymyr Odaryuk
Volodymyr Odaryuk Midfielder
6.09
15
Vladyslav Danylenko
Vladyslav Danylenko (C) Midfielder
6.09
44
Dmytro Plakhtyr
Dmytro Plakhtyr
Midfielder78'
6.5
21
A. Doroshenko
A. Doroshenko Midfielder
6.09
10
V. Sad
V. Sad
Attacker78'
6.5
38
Danyil Sukhoruchko
Danyil Sukhoruchko Attacker
6.35
93
Bogdan Kobzar
Bogdan Kobzar Attacker
6.38
5
Vadim Pidlepych
Vadim Pidlepych
Defender35'
6.26
Referee : Volodymyr Novokhatny

Starting XI ▼

23
Yevgen Volynets
Yevgen Volynets Goalkeeper
6.5
5
Eduard Sarapiy
Eduard Sarapiy (C) Defender
6.69
88
Bogdan Panchyshyn
Bogdan Panchyshyn
Midfielder46'
6.5
15
Bogdan Mykhaylichenko
Bogdan Mykhaylichenko Defender
6.5
16
Ilir Krasniqi
Ilir Krasniqi Defender
6.5
31
Giorgi Maisuradze
Giorgi Maisuradze Defender
6.69
44
Sergiy Chobotenko
Sergiy Chobotenko Defender
6.5
—
Sergiy Chobotenko
64'
11
Oleksiy Gutsulyak
Oleksiy Gutsulyak Midfielder
6.54
30
Bogdan Lednev
Bogdan Lednev
Midfielder64'
6.5
18
Oleksandr Andriyevskyi
Oleksandr Andriyevskyi Midfielder
6.69
19
Volodymyr Shepelev
Volodymyr Shepelev
Midfielder46'
6.5
27
Oleg Fedor
Oleg Fedor Midfielder
6.5
9
Oleksandr Filippov
Oleksandr Filippov
Attacker63'
6.59
45
Maksym Bragaru
Maksym Bragaru Midfielder
6.61
89
Mykola Gayduchyk
Mykola Gayduchyk Attacker
6.5

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Dmytro Plakhtyr → Vladyslav Danylenko
8th Substitution
78'
Event
V. Sad → A. Doroshenko
9th Substitution
78'
Event
Igor Kotsyumaka → Ilya Ukhan
7th Substitution
78'
71'
Event
Giorgi Maisuradze
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
64'
Event
Bogdan Lednev → Oleksiy Gutsulyak
6th Substitution
64'
Event
Kiril Kobernyuk → Sergiy Chobotenko
5th Substitution
63'
Event
Oleksandr Filippov → Oleg Fedor
4th Substitution
46'
Event
Volodymyr Shepelev → Oleksandr Andriyevskyi
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Bogdan Panchyshyn → Eduard Sarapiy
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Vadim Pidlepych → Bogdan Kobzar
1st Substitution
35'
34'
Event
Eduard Sarapiy
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Yevgen Misyura
1st Redcard
33'
14'
Event
Oleksandr Andriyevskyi
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
10'
Event
Oleksiy Gutsulyak
Penalty / 1st Penalty

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Polissya Zhytomyr exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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