Salzburg vs LASK Linz Prediction, Preview and Stats

Austria flag 2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
Red Bull Arena Fri, 10 Apr - 5:30 PM
Admiral Bundesliga
Salzburg RBS
2 Winner 3
LASK Linz ASK
Full Time Fri, 10 Apr 5:30 PM
Round 4 Championship Round
Karim Konaté - 28'
Maurits Kjærgaard - 90+1'
Goal
|
Goal
Modou Kéba Cissé - 8'
Sasa Kalajdzic - 61'
Xavier Mbuyamba - 90+5'

CONTEXT

The match between Salzburg and LASK Linz is finished, ending with a full-time score of 2-3 to the visitors. The teams went into halftime level at 1-1, but LASK Linz pulled ahead in the second period to claim all three points. Salzburg entered the fixture as the stronger side and were expected to prevail, yet the result represented a significant deviation in favor of LASK Linz. Salzburg controlled the majority of possession at 66 percent to 34 percent, but they could not translate that territorial advantage into a win. No xG data is available to measure chance quality, and no red cards were shown to either team, so the outcome was not shaped by dismissals or major disciplinary events. The efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations, yet the final result did not align with the pre-match projection. LASK Linz proved more clinical in front of goal and produced a result that contradicted the anticipated outcome.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: LASK Linz showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Obritzberger
M. Obritzberger
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.1
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.16
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.39
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
D. Pfister
D. Pfister
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.1
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.16
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.39
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
M. Weiss
M. Weiss
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.1
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.16
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.39
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
C. Ciochirca
C. Ciochirca
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.1
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.16
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.39
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
Salzburg D. Beichler
D. Beichler
VS
LASK Linz D. Kühbauer
D. Kühbauer
1.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.13
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hartberg Rank: W
Sturm Graz Rank: D
SK Rapid Rank: L
SK Rapid Rank: L
Hartberg Rank: D
LASK Linz Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Austria Wien Rank: W
SK Rapid Rank: L
Hartberg Rank: D
Wolfsberger AC Rank: W
Austria Wien Rank: D
Salzburg Rank: L
27
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
27 - 12 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Salzburg
4.93%
Draw
90.99%
Away LASK Linz
4.07%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
28.48
27.46
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Salzburg
LASK Linz
Power Score
28.48
27.46
League Position
4
3
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Salzburg — Opponent-weighted form score
LASK Linz — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Salzburg LASK Linz

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Salzburg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

LASK Linz

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Salzburg ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy LASK Linz
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
18.86
56.18
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
56.18
18.86
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Salzburg -2.91 Efficiency Index
vs
LASK Linz +2.91 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Salzburg
LASK Linz
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Salzburg ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy LASK Linz
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Salzburg LASK Linz
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Salzburg LASK Linz
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Salzburg
LASK Linz
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Salzburg
vs
LASK Linz
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Salzburg LASK Linz
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Salzburg 0.20
LASK Linz 0.40
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Salzburg LASK Linz
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Salzburg 0.07
LASK Linz 0.04
Salzburg
LASK Linz
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ASK had peak pressure around 65'.
  • ASK started the game with stronger pressure.
RBS Pressure ASK Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ASK reached the top pressure at 65' (83.22).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 46 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Salzburg RBS Home
46 matches
LASK Linz ASK Away
Match Record
27
Wins
7
12
Draws
12
7
Losses
27
Goals
86
Goals Scored
39
39
Goals Conceded
86
+47
Goal Difference
-47
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-11T00:02:16+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-1-2
Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Pitch
A. Schlager
Austria
1 A. Schlager
S. Lainer
Austria
22 S. Lainer
A. Chase
Japan
91 A. Chase
J. Schuster
Substitution
Austria
44 J. Schuster
A. Terzić
Substitution
Serbia
3 A. Terzić
K. Alajbegović
Bosnia and Herzegovina
27 K. Alajbegović
M. Bidstrup
Denmark
18 M. Bidstrup
F. Krätzig
Germany
13 F. Krätzig
S. Kitano
Japan
8 S. Kitano
Y. Vertessen
Substitution
Belgium
11 Y. Vertessen
K. Konaté
Ivory Coast
19 K. Konaté
L. Jungwirth
Austria
1 L. Jungwirth
A. Andrade Cedeño
Panama
16 A. Andrade Cedeño
J. Tornich
Brazil
43 J. Tornich
M. Cissé
48 M. Cissé
M. Bogarde
Netherlands
6 M. Bogarde
S. Horvath
Austria
30 S. Horvath
I. Coulibaly
Substitution
Mali
4 I. Coulibaly
K. Mølgaard Jørgensen
Substitution
Denmark
20 K. Mølgaard Jørgensen
S. Kalajdzic
Substitution
Austria
10 S. Kalajdzic
S. Adeniran
Substitution
United States
7 S. Adeniran
M. Usor
Nigeria
8 M. Usor

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 10, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria · Round 4 · Championship Round
Stadium
Red Bull Arena
Capacity
30188
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Michael Obritzberger
Daniel Pfister
Maximilian Weiss
Chiristian-Petru Ciochirca

Statistics

Possession
RBS
59%
ASK
41%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 3
1 Big Chances Created 4
4 Shots 7
49 Dangerous attacks 42
66 Possession 34
4 Corners 2
12 Free kicks 8
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

3 Substitutions 4
56 Successful Dribbles Percentage 65
9 Goal Kicks 9
14 Successful Dribbles 13
25 Dribble Attempts 20
17 Throwins 23
1 Assists 3
77 Ball Safe 68
7 Goal Attempts 12
1 Injuries 0

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 2
124 Attacks 86

Possession

553 Passes 283
85 Successful Passes Percentage 69
472 Successful Passes 196
45 Long Passes 53
18 Successful Long Passes 21
7 Key Passes 12
40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 40

Defensive

8 Interceptions 7
11 Tackles 16
2 Saves 2
53 Duels Won 59

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 8
14 Total Crosses 12

Discipline

8 Fouls 12
2 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Chiristian-Petru Ciochirca

Starting XI ▼

1
Alexander Schlager
Alexander Schlager Goalkeeper
3
Aleksa Terzic
Aleksa Terzic Defender
14
Maurits Kjærgaard
Maurits Kjærgaard
Midfielder68'
22
Stefan Lainer
Stefan Lainer Defender
44
Jannik Schuster
Jannik Schuster Defender
9
Karim Onisiwo
Karim Onisiwo
Attacker86'
91
Anrie Chase
Anrie Chase Defender
8
Sota Kitano
Sota Kitano Midfielder
13
Frans Krätzig
Frans Krätzig Midfielder
18
Mads Bidstrup
Mads Bidstrup Midfielder
27
Kerim Alajbegovic
Kerim Alajbegovic Midfielder
11
Yorbe Vertessen
Yorbe Vertessen Attacker
20
Edmund Baidoo
Edmund Baidoo
Attacker68'
19
Karim Konaté
Karim Konaté Attacker
Referee : Chiristian-Petru Ciochirca

Starting XI ▼

1
Lukas Jungwirth
Lukas Jungwirth Goalkeeper
16
Andrés Andrade
Andrés Andrade Defender
43
Alemão
Alemão Defender
48
Modou Kéba Cissé
Modou Kéba Cissé Defender
4
Ismaila Coulibaly
Ismaila Coulibaly Midfielder
3
Xavier Mbuyamba
Xavier Mbuyamba
Defender90'
6
Melayro Bogarde
Melayro Bogarde Midfielder
20
Kasper Jørgensen
Kasper Jørgensen Midfielder
29
Florian Flecker
Florian Flecker
Attacker90+4'
30
Sascha Horvath
Sascha Horvath Midfielder
7
Samuel Adeniran
Samuel Adeniran Attacker
27
Christoph Lang
Christoph Lang
Attacker81'
8
Moses Usor
Moses Usor Attacker
10
Sasa Kalajdzic
Sasa Kalajdzic Attacker
11
Maximilian Entrup
Maximilian Entrup
Attacker81'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+5'
Event
Xavier Mbuyamba
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
90+4'
Event
Florian Flecker → Kasper Jørgensen
7th Substitution
Event
Maurits Kjærgaard
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
90+1'
90'
Event
Xavier Mbuyamba → Ismaila Coulibaly
6th Substitution
Event
Karim Onisiwo → Jannik Schuster
5th Substitution
86'
81'
Event
Christoph Lang → Samuel Adeniran
4th Substitution
81'
Event
Maximilian Entrup → Sasa Kalajdzic
3rd Substitution
Event
Edmund Baidoo → Yorbe Vertessen
1st Substitution
68'
Event
Maurits Kjærgaard → Aleksa Terzic
2nd Substitution
68'
61'
Event
Sasa Kalajdzic
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
57'
Event
Ismaila Coulibaly
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Karim Konaté
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
28'
8'
Event
Modou Kéba Cissé
Header / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: LASK Linz exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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