Korona Kielce vs Jagiellonia Białystok Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Exbud Arena Fri, 10 Apr - 6:30 PM
Ekstraklasa
Korona Kielce Korona Kielce
1 – 1
Jagiellonia Białystok Jagiellonia Białystok
Full Time Fri, 10 Apr 6:30 PM
Round 28 Regular Season
Martin Remacle - 22'
Goal
|
Goal
Afimico Pululu - 29' (P)

CONTEXT

The match between Korona Kielce and Jagiellonia Białystok is now finished, with a full-time score of 0-1 in favor of the visitors. This outcome represented a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, driven by Jagiellonia Białystok. While initial projections had pointed toward a more balanced or home-leaning contest, the away side produced a result that substantially outperformed forecasts. Jagiellonia Białystok controlled much of the play, recording 64 percent possession compared to Korona Kielce’s 36 percent. No xG data was available to assess chance quality. The efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations, and the result did not align with the pre-match projection. Neither team received a red card, so the outcome was unaffected by any disciplinary events. Overall, the victory confirmed Jagiellonia as the stronger side on the day despite the pre-match outlook suggesting otherwise. (148 words)

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Jagiellonia Białystok showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Majewski
M. Majewski
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.92
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.82
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
?. Siercha
?. Siercha
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.92
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.82
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
S. Krasny
S. Krasny
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.92
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.82
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
P. Malec
P. Malec
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.92
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.82
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Korona Kielce J. Zielinski
J. Zielinski
VS
Jagiellonia Białystok A. Siemieniec
A. Siemieniec
1.13
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.24
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lechia Gdańsk Rank: L
Arka Gdynia Rank: W
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: L
Nieciecza Rank: W
Motor Lublin Rank: L
Lech Poznań Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lech Poznań Rank: D
Wisła Płock Rank: L
Katowice Rank: W
Piast Gliwice Rank: L
Lechia Gdańsk Rank: L
Legia Warszawa Rank: D
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 10 - 15
15

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Korona Kielce
4.47%
Draw
91.93%
Away Jagiellonia Białystok
3.61%

Movement

Changes since opening
Korona Kielce
-0.46%
Draw
+0.94%
Jagiellonia Białystok
-0.46%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
19.13
24.62
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Korona Kielce
Jagiellonia Białystok
Power Score
19.13
24.62
League Position
10
2
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Korona Kielce — Opponent-weighted form score
Jagiellonia Białystok — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Korona Kielce Jagiellonia Białystok

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Korona Kielce

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Jagiellonia Białystok

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Korona Kielce ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Jagiellonia Białystok
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
65.56
18.75
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
18.75
65.56
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Korona Kielce +4.12 Efficiency Index
vs
Jagiellonia Białystok -4.12 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Korona Kielce
Jagiellonia Białystok
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Korona Kielce ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Jagiellonia Białystok
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Korona Kielce Jagiellonia Białystok
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Korona Kielce Jagiellonia Białystok
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Korona Kielce
Jagiellonia Białystok
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Korona Kielce
vs
Jagiellonia Białystok
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Korona Kielce Jagiellonia Białystok
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Korona Kielce 0.40
Jagiellonia Białystok 0.25
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Korona Kielce Jagiellonia Białystok
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Korona Kielce 0.03
Jagiellonia Białystok 0.02
Korona Kielce
Jagiellonia Białystok
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Korona Kielce had peak pressure around 24'.
  • Korona Kielce started the game with stronger pressure.
Korona Kielce Pressure Jagiellonia Białystok Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Korona Kielce reached the top pressure at 24' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 35 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Korona Kielce Korona Kielce Home
35 matches
Jagiellonia Białystok Jagiellonia Białystok Away
Match Record
10
Wins
15
10
Draws
10
15
Losses
10
Goals
46
Goals Scored
63
63
Goals Conceded
46
-17
Goal Difference
+17
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-11T00:01:48+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-3-2-1
Pitch
X. Dziekonski
Poland
1 X. Dziekonski
S. Rubežić
Serbia
23 S. Rubežić
P. Resta Tell
Spain
5 P. Resta Tell
M. Pieczek
Poland
6 M. Pieczek
W. Długosz
Poland
71 W. Długosz
T. Svetlin
Slovenia
88 T. Svetlin
M. Remacle
Substitution
Belgium
8 M. Remacle
K. Matuszewski
Poland
3 K. Matuszewski
S. Davidović
Substitution
Slovenia
9 S. Davidović
M. Stępiński
Substitution
Poland
14 M. Stępiński
D. Błanik
Substitution
Poland
7 D. Błanik
S. Abramowicz
Poland
50 S. Abramowicz
G. Serrão Montóia
Portugal
23 G. Serrão Montóia
A. Pelmard
France
70 A. Pelmard
B. Cardoso Vital
Portugal
13 B. Cardoso Vital
A. Pozo Pozo
Substitution
Spain
7 A. Pozo Pozo
B. Mazurek
Substitution
Poland
86 B. Mazurek
T. Romanczuk
Poland
6 T. Romanczuk
J. Imaz Ballesté
Substitution
Spain
11 J. Imaz Ballesté
K. Szmyt
Substitution
Poland
77 K. Szmyt
M. Leiva Esquivel
Spain
19 M. Leiva Esquivel
A. Pululu
Substitution
France
10 A. Pululu

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 10, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 28 · Regular Season
Stadium
Exbud Arena
Capacity
5000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Maciej Majewski
Łukasz Siercha
Sebastian Krasny
Paweł Malec

Statistics

Possession
Korona Kielce
42%
Jagiellonia Białystok
58%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 1
5 Shots 4
52 Dangerous attacks 40
36 Possession 64
5 Corners 3
11 Free kicks 8
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

0 Penalties 1
4 Substitutions 5
20 Throwins 20
9 Successful Dribbles 8
5 Goal Kicks 12
75 Successful Dribbles Percentage 62
12 Dribble Attempts 13
8 Goal Attempts 4
56 Ball Safe 82
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

2 Big Chances Missed 0
74 Attacks 88

Possession

47 Long Passes 66
43 Successful Long Passes Percentage 39
73 Successful Passes Percentage 81
20 Successful Long Passes 26
263 Passes 508
191 Successful Passes 411

Defensive

3 Saves 4
46 Duels Won 36
11 Tackles 13
11 Interceptions 4

Build-up

6 Accurate Crosses 1
22 Total Crosses 7

Discipline

4 Offsides 1
9 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Paweł Malec

Starting XI ▼

1
Xavier Dziekonski
Xavier Dziekonski Goalkeeper
5
Pau Resta
Pau Resta Defender
6
Marcel Pieczek
Marcel Pieczek Defender
23
Slobodan Rubezic
Slobodan Rubezic Defender
3
Konrad Matuszewski
Konrad Matuszewski Midfielder
8
Martin Remacle
Martin Remacle Midfielder
86
Simon Gustafson
Simon Gustafson
Midfielder77'
71
Wiktor Dlugosz
Wiktor Dlugosz Midfielder
88
Tamar Svetlin
Tamar Svetlin Midfielder
7
Dawid Blanik
Dawid Blanik Attacker
77
Marcin Cebula
Marcin Cebula
Midfielder82'
9
Stjepan Davidovic
Stjepan Davidovic Attacker
70
Antoñín
Antoñín
Attacker82'
14
Mariusz Stepinski
Mariusz Stepinski Attacker
11
Vladimir Nikolov
Vladimir Nikolov
Attacker90+3'
Referee : Paweł Malec

Starting XI ▼

50
Slawomir Abramowicz
Slawomir Abramowicz Goalkeeper
7
Álex Pozo
Álex Pozo Defender
15
Norbert Wojtuszek
Norbert Wojtuszek
Midfielder79'
13
Bernardo Vital
Bernardo Vital Defender
23
Guilherme Montóia
Guilherme Montóia Defender
70
Andy Pelmard
Andy Pelmard Defender
6
Taras Romanczuk
Taras Romanczuk Midfielder
11
Jesús Imaz
Jesús Imaz Midfielder
80
Zachary Zalewski
Zachary Zalewski
Midfielder79'
19
Matías Nahuel
Matías Nahuel Midfielder
77
Kajetan Szmyt
Kajetan Szmyt Midfielder
8
Dawid Drachal
Dawid Drachal
Midfielder74'
86
Bartosz Mazurek
Bartosz Mazurek Midfielder
21
Sergio Lozano
Sergio Lozano
Midfielder85'
10
Afimico Pululu
Afimico Pululu Attacker
14
Samed Bazdar
Samed Bazdar
Attacker74'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Vladimir Nikolov → Mariusz Stepinski
9th Substitution
90+3'
85'
Event
Sergio Lozano → Bartosz Mazurek
8th Substitution
Event
Antoñín → Stjepan Davidovic
6th Substitution
82'
Event
Marcin Cebula → Dawid Blanik
7th Substitution
82'
79'
Event
Zachary Zalewski → Jesús Imaz
5th Substitution
79'
Event
Norbert Wojtuszek → Álex Pozo
4th Substitution
Event
Simon Gustafson → Martin Remacle
3rd Substitution
77'
74'
Event
Dawid Drachal → Kajetan Szmyt
2nd Substitution
74'
Event
Samed Bazdar → Afimico Pululu
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Slobodan Rubezic
Goal disallowed
34'
31'
Event
Taras Romanczuk
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
31'
Event
2nd Yellowcard
Event
Jacek Zielinski
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
30'
29'
Event
Afimico Pululu
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
Event
Martin Remacle
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
22'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Jagiellonia Białystok exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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