Frosinone vs Palermo Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Benito Stirpe Fri, 10 Apr - 6:30 PM
Serie B
Frosinone FRO
1 – 1
Palermo PAL
Full Time Fri, 10 Apr 6:30 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Giacomo Calò - 75'
Goal
|
Goal
Filippo Ranocchia - 89'

CONTEXT

The match between Frosinone and Palermo has finished with a full-time score of 1-1. The sides were level at 0-0 at halftime, and neither was able to find a winning goal despite second-half opportunities. This draw represented a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, which had pointed toward a home victory for Frosinone. Palermo, regarded as the stronger side entering the contest, were unable to translate that edge into a win, resulting in an outcome that did not align with the pre-match projection. The efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations, producing a balanced if unspectacular contest without major swings in performance levels. Palermo held a slight edge in possession at 54 percent to Frosinone’s 46 percent, though no expected goals data was available to further assess chance quality or alignment with the final result. No red cards were shown, so the scoreline was unaffected by any disciplinary events. Overall the stalemate highlighted a clear departure from what had been anticipated beforehand.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Palermo showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
S. Sozza
S. Sozza
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.21
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.77
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.36
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.27
M. Belsanti
M. Belsanti
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.21
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.77
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.36
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.27
S. Biffi
S. Biffi
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.21
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.77
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.36
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.27
D. Di Marco
D. Di Marco
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.21
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.77
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.36
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.27
Frosinone M. Alvini
M. Alvini
VS
Palermo F. Inzaghi
F. Inzaghi
2.08
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.88
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Calcio Padova Rank: W
Südtirol Rank: W
Bari 1908 Rank: W
Cesena Rank: D
Sampdoria Rank: W
Pescara Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Avellino Rank: W
Calcio Padova Rank: W
Juve Stabia Rank: D
Monza Rank: L
Carrarese Rank: W
Mantova Rank: W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 4 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Frosinone
41.9%
Draw
26.92%
Away Palermo
31.18%

Movement

Changes since opening
Frosinone
+39.16%
Draw
-61.86%
Palermo
+22.71%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
32.58
32.79
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Frosinone
Palermo
Power Score
32.58
32.79
League Position
2
4
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Frosinone — Opponent-weighted form score
Palermo — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Frosinone Palermo

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Frosinone

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Palermo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Frosinone ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Palermo
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
34.89
28.15
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.15
34.89
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Frosinone +0.67 Efficiency Index
vs
Palermo -0.67 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Frosinone
Palermo
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Frosinone ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Palermo
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Frosinone Palermo
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Frosinone Palermo
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Frosinone
Palermo
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Frosinone
vs
Palermo
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Frosinone Palermo
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Frosinone 0.34
Palermo 0.30
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Frosinone Palermo
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Frosinone 0.02
Palermo 0.02
Frosinone
Palermo
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • PAL had peak pressure around 69'.
  • FRO started the game with stronger pressure.
FRO Pressure PAL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: PAL reached the top pressure at 69' (73.11).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Frosinone FRO Home
11 matches
Palermo PAL Away
Match Record
2
Wins
5
4
Draws
4
5
Losses
2
Goals
7
Goals Scored
13
13
Goals Conceded
7
-6
Goal Difference
+6
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-11T00:02:38+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
L. Palmisani
Italy
22 L. Palmisani
A. Oyono Omva Torque
France
20 A. Oyono Omva Torque
I. Monterisi
Italy
30 I. Monterisi
G. Cittadini
Italy
2 G. Cittadini
G. Bracaglia
Italy
79 G. Bracaglia
G. Calò
Substitution
Italy
14 G. Calò
M. Cichella
Substitution
Italy
16 M. Cichella
I. Koutsoupias
Greece
8 I. Koutsoupias
F. Ghedjemis
Substitution
France
7 F. Ghedjemis
A. Raimondo
Substitution
Italy
9 A. Raimondo
G. Kvernadze
Substitution
Georgia
17 G. Kvernadze
A. Gomis
Senegal
1 A. Gomis
P. Ceccaroni
Substitution
Italy
32 P. Ceccaroni
M. Bani
Italy
13 M. Bani
N. Pierozzi
Substitution
Italy
27 N. Pierozzi
T. Augello
Italy
3 T. Augello
J. Segre
Italy
8 J. Segre
F. Ranocchia
Italy
10 F. Ranocchia
A. Palumbo
Substitution
Italy
5 A. Palumbo
R. Muati Modesto
Substitution
Angola
18 R. Muati Modesto
J. Pohjanpalo
Finland
20 J. Pohjanpalo
J. Le Douaron
France
21 J. Le Douaron

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 10, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Benito Stirpe
Capacity
16227
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Simone Sozza
Marco Belsanti
Simone Biffi
Davide Di Marco

Statistics

Possession
FRO
49%
PAL
51%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 1
8 Shots 8
41 Dangerous attacks 44
46 Possession 54
4 Corners 7
11 Free kicks 12
4 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

0 Hit Woodwork 1
5 Substitutions 4
29 Throwins 37
38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40
77 Ball Safe 78
9 Goal Attempts 12
13 Dribble Attempts 10
5 Successful Dribbles 4
10 Goal Kicks 6
0 Assists 1
1 Injuries 1

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 1
94 Attacks 97

Possession

176 Successful Passes 191
69 Long Passes 74
25 Successful Long Passes 18
11 Key Passes 8
36 Successful Long Passes Percentage 24
64 Successful Passes Percentage 61
273 Passes 312

Defensive

12 Tackles 17
61 Duels Won 63
6 Saves 4
8 Interceptions 4

Build-up

4 Accurate Crosses 6
13 Total Crosses 21

Discipline

3 Offsides 1
12 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Simone Sozza

Starting XI ▼

22
Lorenzo Palmisani
Lorenzo Palmisani Goalkeeper
2
Giorgio Cittadini
Giorgio Cittadini Defender
20
Anthony Oyono
Anthony Oyono Defender
30
Ilario Monterisi
Ilario Monterisi Defender
79
Gabriele Bracaglia
Gabriele Bracaglia Defender
8
Ilias Koutsoupias
Ilias Koutsoupias Midfielder
14
Giacomo Calò
Giacomo Calò Midfielder
92
Ben Lhassine Kone
Ben Lhassine Kone
Midfielder90'
16
Matteo Cichella
Matteo Cichella Midfielder
10
Francesco Gelli
Francesco Gelli
Midfielder67'
7
Farès Ghedjemis
Farès Ghedjemis Attacker
40
Seydou Fini
Seydou Fini
Attacker80'
9
Antonio Raimondo
Antonio Raimondo Attacker
28
Massimo Zilli
Massimo Zilli
Attacker67'
17
Giorgi Kvernadze
Giorgi Kvernadze Attacker
80
Antonio Fiori
Antonio Fiori
Attacker90'
Referee : Simone Sozza

Starting XI ▼

1
Alfred Gomis
Alfred Gomis Goalkeeper
13
Mattia Bani
Mattia Bani Defender
27
Niccolò Pierozzi
Niccolò Pierozzi Defender
11
Emmanuel Gyasi
Emmanuel Gyasi
Defender62'
32
Pietro Ceccaroni
Pietro Ceccaroni Defender
14
Aljosa Vasic
Aljosa Vasic
Midfielder77'
3
Tommaso Augello
Tommaso Augello Midfielder
5
Antonio Palumbo
Antonio Palumbo Midfielder
17
Samuel Giovane
Samuel Giovane
Midfielder83'
8
Jacopo Segre
Jacopo Segre Midfielder
10
Filippo Ranocchia
Filippo Ranocchia Midfielder
18
Rui Modesto
Rui Modesto Midfielder
29
Patryk Peda
Patryk Peda
Defender46'
20
Joel Pohjanpalo
Joel Pohjanpalo Attacker
21
Jérémy Le Douaron
Jérémy Le Douaron Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Patryk Peda
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Ben Lhassine Kone → Giacomo Calò
9th Substitution
90'
Event
Antonio Fiori → Giorgi Kvernadze
8th Substitution
90'
89'
Event
Filippo Ranocchia
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
83'
Event
Samuel Giovane → Antonio Palumbo
7th Substitution
Event
Massimo Zilli
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
82'
Event
Seydou Fini → Farès Ghedjemis
6th Substitution
80'
77'
Event
Aljosa Vasic → Pietro Ceccaroni
5th Substitution
Event
Kevin Barcella
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
75'
Event
Giacomo Calò
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
75'
Event
Farès Ghedjemis
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
73'
Event
Francesco Gelli → Matteo Cichella
3rd Substitution
67'
Event
Massimo Zilli → Antonio Raimondo
4th Substitution
67'
62'
Event
Emmanuel Gyasi → Niccolò Pierozzi
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Patryk Peda → Rui Modesto
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Gabriele Bracaglia
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
43'
39'
Event
Filippo Ranocchia
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
16'
Event
Antonio Palumbo
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Palermo exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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