Sporting Charleroi vs Antwerp Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Stade du Pays de Charleroi Fri, 10 Apr - 6:45 PM
Pro League
Sporting Charleroi SPC
2 Winner 1
Antwerp ANT
Full Time Fri, 10 Apr 6:45 PM
Round 2 Conference League Play-off Group
Antoine Bernier - 30'
Patrick Pflücke - 63'
Goal
|
Goal
Vincent Janssen - 90+4' (P)

CONTEXT

The match between Sporting Charleroi and Antwerp is now finished, with the full-time score 2-1 to the home side. Sporting Charleroi led 1-0 at half-time and added a second goal after the interval, securing all three points despite Antwerp enjoying the greater share of possession at 55 percent to 45 percent. No red cards were shown and the contest proceeded without significant disciplinary interruptions. The result showed only minimal deviation from pre-match expectations, driven by Sporting Charleroi. Although Antwerp were viewed as the stronger team heading into the fixture, the home side converted their opportunities efficiently and claimed the victory in line with the overwhelming pre-match projection favoring them. The efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations, and the outcome aligned fully with the pre-match projection. Without reliable expected-goals data available, the result could not be measured directly against underlying chance quality, yet the final scoreline reflected a performance that matched the anticipated outcome. Sporting Charleroi demonstrated enough quality in both halves to overcome their slight territorial disadvantage and emerge deserving winners.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Sporting Charleroi showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
N. Senecaut
N. Senecaut
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.78
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.98
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
K. Debeuckelaere
K. Debeuckelaere
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.78
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.98
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
A. Jacoby
A. Jacoby
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.78
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.98
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
J. Boterberg
J. Boterberg
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.78
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.98
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.35
Sporting Charleroi H. Cornelis
H. Cornelis
VS
Antwerp J. Oosting
J. Oosting
1.05
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.14
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Westerlo Rank: L
Zulte-Waregem Rank: L
OH Leuven Rank: L
Dender Rank: D
Club Brugge Rank: L
Westerlo Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Genk Rank: L
OH Leuven Rank: L
Standard Liège Rank: D
La Louvière Rank: D
Sint-Truiden Rank: W
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: L
9
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
9 - 4 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sporting Charleroi
96.07%
Draw
3.73%
Away Antwerp
0.19%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
13.71
20.69
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sporting Charleroi
Antwerp
Power Score
13.71
20.69
League Position
11
10
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sporting Charleroi — Opponent-weighted form score
Antwerp — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sporting Charleroi Antwerp

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sporting Charleroi

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Antwerp

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sporting Charleroi ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Antwerp
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
32.56
27.18
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
27.18
32.56
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sporting Charleroi +0.47 Efficiency Index
vs
Antwerp -0.47 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sporting Charleroi
Antwerp
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sporting Charleroi ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Antwerp
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sporting Charleroi Antwerp
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sporting Charleroi Antwerp
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sporting Charleroi
Antwerp
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Sporting Charleroi
vs
Antwerp
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sporting Charleroi Antwerp
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Sporting Charleroi 0.39
Antwerp 0.20
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sporting Charleroi Antwerp
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Sporting Charleroi 0.02
Antwerp 0.06
Sporting Charleroi
Antwerp
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • SPC had peak pressure around 71'.
  • ANT started the game with stronger pressure.
SPC Pressure ANT Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: SPC reached the top pressure at 71' (97.63).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 19 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sporting Charleroi SPC Home
19 matches
Antwerp ANT Away
Match Record
9
Wins
6
4
Draws
4
6
Losses
9
Goals
27
Goals Scored
24
24
Goals Conceded
27
+3
Goal Difference
-3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-11T00:03:08+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-1-4-2
Pitch
M. Kone
France
30 M. Kone
K. Van Den Kerkhof
Algeria
3 K. Van Den Kerkhof
A. Ousou
Sweden
4 A. Ousou
C. keita
France
95 C. keita
M. Nzita
Belgium
24 M. Nzita
Y. Titraoui
Substitution
Algeria
22 Y. Titraoui
A. Boukamir
Substitution
Belgium
56 A. Boukamir
A. Bernier
Substitution
Belgium
17 A. Bernier
P. Pflücke
Substitution
Germany
14 P. Pflücke
P. Guiagon
Substitution
Ivory Coast
10 P. Guiagon
A. Scheidler
Substitution
France
21 A. Scheidler
T. Nozawa
Japan
41 T. Nozawa
Y. Tsunashima
Japan
4 Y. Tsunashima
M. Benítez
Substitution
Argentina
16 M. Benítez
Z. Van Den Bosch
Substitution
Belgium
33 Z. Van Den Bosch
D. Praet
Belgium
8 D. Praet
F. Adekami
Substitution
22 F. Adekami
C. Scott
Germany
30 C. Scott
A. Valencia
Ecuador
14 A. Valencia
T. Somers
Substitution
Belgium
24 T. Somers
M. Al Sahafi
Substitution
Saudi Arabia
9 M. Al Sahafi
V. Janssen
Netherlands
18 V. Janssen

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 10, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 2 · Conference League Play-off Group
Stadium
Stade du Pays de Charleroi
Capacity
15000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
N. Senecaut
K. Debeuckelaere
Anaik Jacoby
Jan Boterberg

Statistics

Possession
SPC
47%
ANT
53%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 1
7 Shots 9
33 Dangerous attacks 59
45 Possession 55
2 Corners 9
14 Free kicks 11
3 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

84 Ball Safe 83
11 Goal Kicks 8
2 Assists 0
56 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
10 Successful Dribbles 7
18 Dribble Attempts 21
24 Throwins 16
5 Substitutions 5
1 Hit Woodwork 0
0 Penalties 1
3 Injuries 1
10 Goal Attempts 7

Attacking

79 Attacks 96
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

10 Key Passes 10
79 Successful Passes Percentage 83
250 Successful Passes 317
51 Long Passes 68
55 Successful Long Passes Percentage 59
28 Successful Long Passes 40
315 Passes 384

Defensive

8 Interceptions 8
25 Tackles 17
2 Saves 3

Build-up

2 Accurate Crosses 7
13 Total Crosses 23

Discipline

12 Fouls 14
2 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Jan Boterberg

Starting XI ▼

30
Mohamed Koné
Mohamed Koné Goalkeeper
3
Kevin Van Den Kerkhof
Kevin Van Den Kerkhof Defender
4
Aiham Ousou
Aiham Ousou Defender
24
Mardochée Nzita
Mardochée Nzita Defender
95
Check Keita
Check Keita Defender
10
Parfait Guiagon
Parfait Guiagon Midfielder
32
Mehdi Boukamir
Mehdi Boukamir
Defender83'
14
Patrick Pflücke
Patrick Pflücke Midfielder
8
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas
Midfielder72'
17
Antoine Bernier
Antoine Bernier Midfielder
27
Lewin Blum
Lewin Blum
Defender83'
22
Yassine Titraoui
Yassine Titraoui Midfielder
—
Yassine Titraoui
88'
56
Amine Boukamir
Amine Boukamir Midfielder
40
Yassine Khalifi
Yassine Khalifi
Midfielder68'
21
Aurélien Scheidler
Aurélien Scheidler Attacker
25
Antoine Colassin
Antoine Colassin
Attacker71'
Referee : Jan Boterberg

Starting XI ▼

41
Taishi Brandon Nozawa
Taishi Brandon Nozawa Goalkeeper
4
Yuto Tsunashima
Yuto Tsunashima Defender
16
Mauricio Benitez
Mauricio Benitez Defender
25
Kiki Kouyaté
Kiki Kouyaté
Defender71'
33
Zeno Van Den Bosch
Zeno Van Den Bosch Defender
5
Daam Foulon
Daam Foulon
Defender62'
8
Dennis Praet
Dennis Praet Midfielder
14
Anthony Valencia
Anthony Valencia Midfielder
22
Farouck Adekami
Farouck Adekami Midfielder
78
Xander Dierckx
Xander Dierckx
Midfielder71'
24
Thibo Somers
Thibo Somers Midfielder
43
Youssef Hamdaoui
Youssef Hamdaoui
Midfielder71'
30
Christopher Scott
Christopher Scott Midfielder
9
Marwan Alsahafi
Marwan Alsahafi Attacker
83
Jeff Godelaine
Jeff Godelaine
Attacker83'
18
Vincent Janssen
Vincent Janssen Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Vincent Janssen
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
90+2'
Event
Jeff Godelaine
Penalty awarded
89'
Event
Anthony Valencia
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Yacine Titraoui↓ → Yassine Titraoui
11th Substitution
88'
Event
Mehdi Boukamir → Parfait Guiagon
9th Substitution
83'
Event
Lewin Blum → Antoine Bernier
8th Substitution
83'
83'
Event
Jeff Godelaine → Marwan Alsahafi
10th Substitution
Event
Jakob Napoleon Romsaas → Patrick Pflücke
7th Substitution
72'
Event
Antoine Colassin → Aurélien Scheidler
3rd Substitution
71'
71'
Event
Youssef Hamdaoui → Thibo Somers
5th Substitution
71'
Event
Kiki Kouyaté → Mauricio Benitez
6th Substitution
71'
Event
Xander Dierckx → Farouck Adekami
4th Substitution
Event
Aiham Ousou
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
70'
Event
Antoine Bernier
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
69'
Event
Yassine Khalifi → Amine Boukamir
2nd Substitution
68'
Event
Patrick Pflücke
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
63'
62'
Event
Daam Foulon → Zeno Van Den Bosch
1st Substitution
54'
Event
Farouck Adekami
Persistent fouling / 2nd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Amine Boukamir
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
43'
Event
Antoine Bernier
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
30'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Sporting Charleroi exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Pro League View all league clusters