FSV Mainz 05 vs Strasbourg Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Europa Conference League, Europe
Europa Conference League
Strasbourg
STR
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
CONTEXT
In the finished game, FSV Mainz 05 defeated Strasbourg 2-0 in Leg 1 of a two-legged knockout tie. The home side scored both goals in the first half to lead 2-0 at the break and held firm in the second half despite recording just 34 percent possession to Strasbourg's 66 percent. No red cards were issued. Pre-match markets assigned a 97.9 probability to the home win, which materialized as expected given that Mainz was identified as the stronger team. The result creates a 2-0 aggregate advantage for Mainz heading into the second leg.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: FSV Mainz 05 recorded minimal structural deviation of 2.1 percent.
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Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift was in line with expectations.
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xG alignment: xG alignment could not be assessed due to unavailable data.
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Market alignment: The outcome aligned with pre-match expectations.
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xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated due to missing data.
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Event impact: First-half home goals proved decisive in the 2-0 victory with no second-half adjustments.
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Red card distortion: No red cards were issued resulting in zero red card distortion.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
FSV Mainz 05
Strasbourg
Movement
Changes since opening
FSV Mainz 05
Strasbourg
Team Power Ranking
i
81.74
79.3
FSV Mainz 05
Strasbourg
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
FSV Mainz 05
Strasbourg
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
FSV Mainz 05
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
FSV Mainz 05
⚠ Proxy
FSV Mainz 05
Strasbourg
FSV Mainz 05
Strasbourg
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
FSV Mainz 05
FSV Mainz 05
Strasbourg
FSV Mainz 05
Strasbourg
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Match Record
Goals
Expected Goals
Data last updated: 2026-04-10T00:01:20+00:00
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General Information
Next Match
FSV Mainz 05
vs
SC Freiburg
League: Bundesliga
Kickoff: Sun, 12 Apr - 5:30 PM
Venue: Home
Strasbourg
vs
FSV Mainz 05
League: Europa Conference League
Kickoff: Thu, 16 Apr - 7:00 PM
Venue: Home
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
Manager ▼
Starting XI ▼
















Substitutes ▼




Manager ▼
Starting XI ▼














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Match Commentary