Paris Saint Germain vs Liverpool Prediction, Preview and Stats

Europe flag 2025/2026 Champions League, Europe
Parc des Princes Wed, 8 Apr - 7:00 PM
Champions League
Paris Saint Germain PSG
2 Winner 0
Liverpool LIV
Full Time Wed, 8 Apr 7:00 PM
Quarter Finals Leg 1 of 2
Désiré Doué - 11'
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia - 65'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Paris Saint Germain faced Liverpool in Leg 1 of 2 of their knockout tie with the aggregate entering the match at 0 - 0. The game concluded with Paris Saint Germain winning 2 goals to 0. At half time Paris Saint Germain led by 1 goal to 0. The home team dominated the possession with 74 percent to the away team's 26 percent. The stronger team was identified as Paris Saint Germain which coincided with them being the winner. There were no red cards in the match. The pre market probabilities were 97.9 for home win, 1.9 for draw and 22 for away win with a deviation of 2.1 percent at a minimal level for Paris Saint Germain. The market was aligned with the outcome and the efficiency shift was in line with expectations.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Minimal structural deviation favored Paris Saint Germain in the 2-0 win.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations for the match.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be assessed due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: The result was aligned with pre-match expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be formed due to missing values.
  • Event impact: PSG built a 2-0 first-leg lead in the knockout tie.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued to distort the match.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
J. Sánchez Martínez
J. Sánchez Martínez
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.88
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.71
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.42
R. Cabañero Martínez
R. Cabañero Martínez
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.88
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.71
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.42
I. Prieto López de Ceraín
I. Prieto López de Ceraín
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.88
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.71
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.42
J. Martínez Munuera
J. Martínez Munuera
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.88
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.71
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.42
Paris Saint Germain L. Martínez García
L. Martínez García
VS
Liverpool A. Slot
A. Slot
1.8
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.25
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Chelsea Rank: 92 W
Chelsea Rank: 90 W
Monaco Rank: 81 D
Monaco Rank: 81 W
Newcastle United Rank: 89 D
Sporting CP Rank: 89 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Galatasaray Rank: 89 W
Galatasaray Rank: 88 L
Qarabağ Rank: W
Olympique Marseille Rank: 81 W
Inter Rank: 90 W
PSV Rank: 85 L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 0 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Paris Saint Germain
53.43%
Draw
23%
Away Liverpool
23.57%

Movement

Changes since opening
Paris Saint Germain
-44.43%
Draw
+21.08%
Liverpool
+23.35%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
94.1
91.8
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Paris Saint Germain
Liverpool
Power Score
94.1
91.8
League Position
11
3
Global Rank
5
7

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Paris Saint Germain — Opponent-weighted form score
Liverpool — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Paris Saint Germain Liverpool

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Paris Saint Germain

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Liverpool

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Paris Saint Germain ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Liverpool
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.77
17.88
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
17.88
27.77
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Paris Saint Germain +0.75 Efficiency Index
vs
Liverpool -0.75 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Paris Saint Germain
Liverpool
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Paris Saint Germain ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Liverpool
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Paris Saint Germain Liverpool
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Paris Saint Germain Liverpool
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Paris Saint Germain
Liverpool
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Paris Saint Germain
vs
Liverpool
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Paris Saint Germain Liverpool
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Paris Saint Germain 0.35
Liverpool 0.09
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Paris Saint Germain Liverpool
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Paris Saint Germain 0.00
Liverpool 0.04
Paris Saint Germain
Liverpool
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 4 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Paris Saint Germain PSG Home
4 matches
Liverpool LIV Away
Match Record
2
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
2
Goals
5
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
5
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-09T00:01:26+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
M. Safonov
Russia
39 M. Safonov
A. Hakimi Mouh
Morocco
2 A. Hakimi Mouh
M. Aoás Corrêa
Brazil
5 M. Aoás Corrêa
W. Pacho Tenorio
Ecuador
51 W. Pacho Tenorio
N. Mendes
Portugal
25 N. Mendes
J. Gonçalves Neves
Portugal
87 J. Gonçalves Neves
V. Machado Ferreira
Portugal
17 V. Machado Ferreira
W. Zaire Emery
France
33 W. Zaire Emery
D. Doue
France
14 D. Doue
O. Dembélé
Substitution
France
10 O. Dembélé
K. Kvaratskhelia
Georgia
7 K. Kvaratskhelia
G. Mamardashvili
Georgia
25 G. Mamardashvili
J. Gomez
England
2 J. Gomez
V. van Dijk
Netherlands
4 V. van Dijk
I. Konaté
France
5 I. Konaté
Milos Kerkez
Substitution
Hungary
6 Milos Kerkez
A. Mac Allister
Argentina
10 A. Mac Allister
R. Gravenberch
Netherlands
38 R. Gravenberch
D. Szoboszlai
Hungary
8 D. Szoboszlai
J. Frimpong
Substitution
Netherlands
30 J. Frimpong
H. Ekitike
France
22 H. Ekitike
F. Wirtz
Substitution
Germany
7 F. Wirtz

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 08, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Champions League, Europe · Quarter Finals · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Parc des Princes
Capacity
48583
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
José María Sánchez Martínez
Raúl Cabañero Martínez
Iñigo Prieto López de Ceraín
Juan Martínez Munuera

Statistics

Possession
PSG
68%
LIV
32%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
4 Big Chances Created 0
6 Shots 1
51 Dangerous attacks 33
74 Possession 26
3 Corners 1
14 Free kicks 9
0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

2 Goal Kicks 10
23 Throwins 10
13 Successful Headers 5
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 70
9 Successful Dribbles 7
18 Dribble Attempts 10
1 Assists 0
2 Substitutions 5
1 Hit Woodwork 0
13 Goal Attempts 2
75 Ball Safe 60

Attacking

111 Attacks 81
3 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

92 Successful Passes Percentage 75
744 Passes 253
27 Successful Long Passes 24
59 Successful Long Passes Percentage 52
14 Key Passes 3
46 Long Passes 46
683 Successful Passes 189

Defensive

44 Duels Won 34
6 Interceptions 7
10 Tackles 15
0 Saves 4

Build-up

3 Total Crosses 9
1 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

8 Fouls 12
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : José María Sánchez Martínez

Starting XI ▼

39
Matvey Safonov
Matvey Safonov Goalkeeper
2
Achraf Hakimi
Achraf Hakimi Defender
5
Marquinhos
Marquinhos Defender
25
Nuno Mendes
Nuno Mendes Defender
51
Willian Pacho
Willian Pacho Defender
17
Vitinha
Vitinha Midfielder
33
Warren Zaïre-Emery
Warren Zaïre-Emery Midfielder
87
João Neves
João Neves Midfielder
7
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia Attacker
10
Ousmane Dembélé
Ousmane Dembélé Attacker
21
Lucas Hernández
Lucas Hernández
Defender88'
14
Désiré Doué
Désiré Doué Attacker
Referee : José María Sánchez Martínez

Starting XI ▼

25
Giorgi Mamardashvili
Giorgi Mamardashvili Goalkeeper
2
Joe Gomez
Joe Gomez Defender
4
Virgil van Dijk
Virgil van Dijk Defender
5
Ibrahima Konaté
Ibrahima Konaté Defender
6
Milos Kerkez
Milos Kerkez Midfielder
9
Alexander Isak
Alexander Isak
Attacker78'
8
Dominik Szoboszlai
Dominik Szoboszlai Midfielder
10
Alexis Mac Allister
Alexis Mac Allister Midfielder
30
Jeremie Frimpong
Jeremie Frimpong Midfielder
42
Trey Nyoni
Trey Nyoni
Midfielder90+1'
38
Ryan Gravenberch
Ryan Gravenberch Midfielder
7
Florian Wirtz
Florian Wirtz Attacker
18
Cody Gakpo
Cody Gakpo
Attacker78'
22
Hugo Ekitiké
Hugo Ekitiké Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Trey Nyoni → Jeremie Frimpong
7th Substitution
Event
Lucas Hernández → Ousmane Dembélé
6th Substitution
88'
Event
4th Substitution
78'
78'
Event
Cody Gakpo → Florian Wirtz
1st Substitution
78'
Event
2nd Substitution
78'
Event
Alexander Isak → Milos Kerkez
3rd Substitution
78'
Event
Andrew Robertson → Cody Gakpo
5th Substitution
Event
Warren Zaïre-Emery
Penalty disallowed
71'
Event
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
65'
1ST-HALF
31'
Event
Alexis Mac Allister
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
28'
Event
Joe Gomez
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Désiré Doué
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
11'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Vitinha from Paris Saint Germain won a free kick in defense.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Paris Saint Germain leading Liverpool 2-0.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Alexis Mac Allister - Liverpool.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 3 minutes of added time.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Liverpool: Trey Nyoni replaces Jeremie Frimpong.
90
Update Update
Vitinha commits a handball for Paris Saint Germain.
89
Attempt Attempt
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia from Paris Saint Germain has a shot from outside the box with his right foot, but it's blocked.
89
Attempt Attempt
Achraf Hakimi's shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist was provided by Lee Kang-In.
88
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Paris Saint Germain: Lucas Hernández replaces Ousmane Dembélé.
87
Attempt Attempt
Ousmane Dembélé from Paris Saint Germain hits the woodwork with a right-footed shot from the right side of the box.
85
Update Update
Ryan Gravenberch of Liverpool won a free kick in defense.
85
Update Update
Foul committed by Khvicha Kvaratskhelia of Paris Saint Germain.
83
Corner Corner
Missed chance. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia of Paris Saint Germain heads the ball from the right side of the box, but it goes high and wide to the right. The assist came from Lee Kang-In, who delivered a cross after a corner.
82
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Paris Saint Germain after Andy Robertson concedes.
82
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Paris Saint Germain after being conceded by Andy Robertson.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Liverpool: Curtis Jones replaces Dominik Szoboszlai.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Liverpool: Alexander Isak replaces Florian Wirtz.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Liverpool: Andy Robertson replaces Milos Kerkez.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Paris Saint Germain: Lee Kang-In replaces Désiré Doué.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Liverpool: Curtis Jones replaces Dominik Szoboszlai.
76
Attempt Attempt
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. Ousmane Dembélé provided the assist.
76
Attempt Attempt
Désiré Doué of Paris Saint Germain has a shot from outside the box with his right foot, but it is blocked. Ousmane Dembélé provided the assist.
74
Update Update
Foul committed by Désiré Doué of Paris Saint Germain.
74
Update Update
Milos Kerkez of Liverpool won a free kick in defense.
73
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ibrahima Konaté of Liverpool receives a yellow card for a foul.
73
Update Update
The VAR decision is that there is no penalty for Paris Saint Germain.
73
Update Update
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia of Paris Saint Germain won a free kick in defense.
71
Update Update
Penalty awarded to Paris Saint Germain as Warren Zaïre-Emery is fouled in the penalty area.
69
Update Update
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia of Paris Saint Germain won a free kick in defense.
65
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Paris Saint Germain leads 2-0 against Liverpool as Khvicha Kvaratskhelia scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
62
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Paris Saint Germain after Joe Gomez concedes.
60
Update Update
Vitinha from Paris Saint Germain won a free kick in defense.
59
Attempt Attempt
Alexis Mac Allister's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Florian Wirtz provided the assist.
57
Update Update
Foul committed by Jeremie Frimpong against Liverpool.
57
Update Update
João Neves from Paris Saint Germain won a free kick in defense.
54
Update Update
Offside called against Liverpool. Hugo Ekitiké is offside.
53
Attempt Attempt
Ousmane Dembélé from Paris Saint Germain misses a chance with a left-footed shot from the center of the box.
53
Corner Corner
Achraf Hakimi from Paris Saint Germain misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, but the ball goes high after a corner.
52
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Paris Saint Germain after Joe Gomez concedes.
49
Attempt Attempt
Hugo Ekitiké from Liverpool misses a chance with a right-footed shot from outside the box after a fast break.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 1 minute of added time.
45
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. João Neves from Paris Saint Germain took a right-footed shot from outside the box.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Paris Saint Germain leading Liverpool 1-0.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at Paris Saint Germain 1, Liverpool 0.
42
Attempt Attempt
Ousmane Dembélé of Paris Saint Germain attempts an attack with a left-footed shot from the right side of the box, but it's saved by Liverpool's goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili. The assist came from Désiré Doué.
40
Update Update
Offside called against Liverpool. Jeremie Frimpong is offside.
38
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia from Paris Saint Germain took a right-footed shot from the right side of the box, but it went wide.
37
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Désiré Doué of Paris Saint Germain has a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but it's saved in the right corner by Giorgi Mamardashvili of Liverpool. The assist comes from Nuno Mendes.
36
Update Update
Achraf Hakimi of Paris Saint Germain commits a foul.
36
Update Update
Alexis Mac Allister of Liverpool won a free kick on the left wing.
35
Update Update
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia of Paris Saint Germain won a free kick in defense.
34
Update Update
Milos Kerkez of Liverpool won a free kick in defense.
34
Update Update
Achraf Hakimi of Paris Saint Germain committed a foul.
32
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia from Paris Saint Germain shoots with his right foot from the right side of the box, but Giorgi Mamardashvili from Liverpool saves it in the left corner.
31
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alexis Mac Allister of Liverpool receives a yellow card for a foul.
31
Update Update
Désiré Doué from Paris Saint Germain won a free kick on the right wing.
31
Update Update
Foul committed by Alexis Mac Allister - Liverpool.
28
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Joe Gomez of Liverpool receives a yellow card for a foul.
28
Update Update
Désiré Doué of Paris Saint Germain won a free kick in defense.
28
Update Update
Foul committed by Joe Gomez of Liverpool.
26
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Nuno Mendes from Paris Saint Germain.
24
Update Update
Warren Zaïre-Emery of Paris Saint Germain committed a foul.
24
Update Update
Alexis Mac Allister of Liverpool won a free kick in defense.
23
Update Update
Hugo Ekitiké of Liverpool won a free kick in defense.
23
Update Update
Achraf Hakimi of Paris Saint Germain committed a foul.
21
Attempt Attempt
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Warren Zaïre-Emery provided the assist.
21
Update Update
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia from Paris Saint Germain won a free kick in defense.
21
Update Update
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia of Paris Saint Germain won a free kick in defense.
21
Update Update
Giorgi Mamardashvili of Liverpool won a free kick in defense.
20
Update Update
Fouled by Florian Wirtz of Liverpool.
19
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Liverpool after Matvey Safonov concedes.
18
Update Update
Foul committed by Alexis Mac Allister - Liverpool.
18
Update Update
João Neves of Paris Saint Germain won a free kick in defense.
15
Update Update
Nuno Mendes from Paris Saint Germain won a free kick in defense.
15
Update Update
Fouled by Florian Wirtz of Liverpool.
13
Update Update
Foul committed by Khvicha Kvaratskhelia of Paris Saint Germain.
13
Update Update
Ibrahima Konaté of Liverpool won a free kick in the attacking area.
11
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Paris Saint Germain leads 1-0 after Désiré Doué scores with a right-footed shot from the left side of the box into the high center of the goal.
10
Attempt Attempt
Désiré Doué's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. Ousmane Dembélé provided the assist.

CONCLUSION

The first leg of the knockout tie saw Paris Saint Germain take a commanding 2-0 lead over Liverpool. With a dominant display in possession and scoring once in each half, the home side established a solid advantage ahead of the return leg. The pre-match market had strongly favored PSG, and this was reflected in the final scoreline with minimal deviation observed. No disciplinary issues arose as the match proceeded without any red cards. This sets up an intriguing second leg despite the current aggregate standing at 2-0 in favor of Paris Saint Germain.

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