Istra 1961 vs Hajduk Split Expert Preview & Team Analysis

2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia

Stadion Aldo Drosina Tue, 7 Apr - 4:00 PM

1. HNL

Istra 1961 Istra 1961

Hajduk Split Hajduk Split

Full Time Tue, 7 Apr 4:00 PM

Round 28 Regular Season

Charles Adah Agada - 84'

Marko Livaja - 58', 23'

Adrion Pajaziti - 51'

CONTEXT

The match has concluded with Hajduk Split securing a 3-1 victory away against Istra 1961. Hajduk Split took an early advantage, leading 1-0 at halftime, and ultimately justified their status as the stronger team. Going into the game, the visitors were the clear market favorites with a 56.3% implied win probability, compared to a 19.3% chance for the hosts and a 24.4% probability of a draw. The final outcome aligned perfectly with these pre-match expectations, reflecting a significant deviation level favoring Hajduk Split. On the pitch, Hajduk Split dictated the tempo, dominating the ball with 68% possession while restricting Istra 1961 to just 32%. Because expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, it cannot be determined if the final score strictly aligned with underlying chance quality. Nonetheless, the overall efficiency shift was strictly in line with expectations. The match proceeded without any major disciplinary events, as no red cards were issued to either side. Ultimately, Hajduk Split utilized their heavy possession to methodically dismantle their opponents, ensuring their pre-match favoritism translated smoothly onto the final scoreboard.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Hajduk Split showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: No major event distortion.
Red card distortion: None.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

M. Erceg

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

S. Brajković

2nd Assistant

B. Zobenica

1st Assistant

F. Dragasevic

4th Official

O. Riera Magem

G. García García

1.33

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.89

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

14 - 14 - 36

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Istra 1961

19.32%

Draw

24.35%

Hajduk Split

56.33%

Team Power Ranking

64.31

72.11

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Istra 1961

Hajduk Split

Power Score

64.31

72.11

League Position

Global Rank

330

148

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Istra 1961 — Opponent-weighted form score

Hajduk Split — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Istra 1961 Hajduk Split

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Istra 1961

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Hajduk Split

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Istra 1961 ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Hajduk Split

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

28.13

32.72

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

32.72

28.13

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Istra 1961 -0.46 Efficiency Index

Hajduk Split +0.46 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Istra 1961

Hajduk Split

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Istra 1961 ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Hajduk Split

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Istra 1961 Hajduk Split

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Istra 1961 Hajduk Split

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Istra 1961

Hajduk Split

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Istra 1961

Hajduk Split

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Istra 1961 Hajduk Split

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Transition Efficiency Index Higher = stronger on the counter

Istra 1961 0.18

Hajduk Split 0.29

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Istra 1961 Hajduk Split

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Istra 1961

Hajduk Split

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 64 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Istra 1961 Istra 1961 Home

64 matches

Hajduk Split Hajduk Split Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

113

Goals Conceded

-59

Goal Difference

+59

Data last updated: 2026-04-08T00:01:05+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

1 F. Kolić

97 A. Kadušić

3 M. Nasraoui

16 S. Miettinen

26 M. Heister

5 J. Radošević

23 L. Štulac

17 E. Frederiksen

8 A. Mauric

7 V. Rozić

9 S. Prevljak

33 T. Silić

17 D. Melnjak

31 Z. Šarlija

15 D. Maresic

8 N. Sigur

23 F. Krovinović

4 A. Pajaziti

11 M. Šego

21 R. Pukstas

28 R. Brajković

10 M. Livaja

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 07, 2026, 04:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 28 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Stadion Aldo Drosina

Capacity :

9800

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ , Clear

Referees :

Stipe Brajković

Mateo Erceg

Bojan Zobenica

Filip Dragasevic

Statistics

Possession

Istra 1961

36%

Hajduk Split

64%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 3

1 Big Chances Created 3

3 Shots 6

40 Dangerous attacks 65

32 Possession 68

2 Corners 8

12 Free kicks 18

2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 4

36 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40

19 Throwins 17

9 Goal Kicks 7

14 Dribble Attempts 20

0 Assists 3

5 Successful Dribbles 8

0 Hit Woodwork 2

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 3

103 Attacks 119

Possession

20 Successful Long Passes 30

38 Successful Long Passes Percentage 56

221 Successful Passes 556

296 Passes 634

53 Long Passes 54

75 Successful Passes Percentage 88

5 Key Passes 15

Defensive

48 Duels Won 56

23 Tackles 17

5 Saves 1

9 Interceptions 4

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 6

13 Total Crosses 16

Discipline

18 Fouls 12

0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Mateo Erceg

Manager ▼

O. Riera Magem Coach

Starting XI ▼

Franko Kolic Goalkeeper

Mohamed Nasraoui Defender

Samuli Miettinen Defender

Filip Taraba

Defender76'

Marcel Heister Defender

Advan Kadusic Defender

Josip Radosevic Midfielder

Vinko Rozic Midfielder

Silvio Gorican

Attacker76'

Antonio Mauric Midfielder

Allen Obando

Attacker67'

Emil Frederiksen Midfielder

Leo Stulac Midfielder

Stjepan Loncar

Midfielder58'

Smail Prevljak Attacker

Charles Adah Agada

Attacker76'

Substitutes ▼

Stjepan Loncar

Midfielder58'

Allen Obando

Attacker67'

Charles Adah Agada

Attacker76'

Silvio Gorican

Attacker76'

Filip Taraba

Defender76'

Bench ▼

Jan Paus-Kunst Goalkeeper

Niko Šepić Defender

R. Hrvatin Defender

Israel Isaac Ayuma Midfielder

Dukan Ahmeti Midfielder

Gustavo Albarracín Midfielder

Nik Skafar Zuzic Attacker

Referee : Mateo Erceg