Sporting CP vs Arsenal Prediction, Preview and Stats

Europe flag 2025/2026 Champions League, Europe
Estádio José Alvalade Tue, 7 Apr - 7:00 PM
Champions League
Sporting CP SCP
0 Winner 1
Arsenal ARS
Full Time Tue, 7 Apr 7:00 PM
Quarter Finals Leg 1 of 2
|
Goal
Kai Havertz - 90+1'

CONTEXT

The first leg of this knockout tie is finished, with Arsenal securing a 1-0 away victory over Sporting CP. After a tightly contested first half that ended completely scoreless, the visitors managed to find the lone breakthrough in the second period to claim a crucial advantage. The full-time result was strictly aligned with pre-match market expectations, which heavily favored the stronger Arsenal squad with a 52.4% win probability compared to Sporting CP's 21.8% and a 25.8% chance of a draw. Because the away team secured the win against the remaining probability, the outcome represented a significant deviation level of 47.6% towards Arsenal. Arsenal controlled the overall flow of the game, holding 56% of the possession while the hosts managed just 44%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to determine if the final scoreline was consistent with underlying chance creation. However, the overall attacking efficiency shift remained in line with expectations for the match. Finally, it was a disciplined game with no red cards issued to either side, meaning no major dismissals impacted the final result.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Arsenal showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Siebert
D. Siebert
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.55
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.64
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.45
J. Seidel
J. Seidel
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.55
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.64
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.45
R. Foltyn
R. Foltyn
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.55
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.64
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.45
D. Schlager
D. Schlager
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.55
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.64
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.05
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.45
Sporting CP R. Gomes Borges
R. Gomes Borges
VS
Arsenal M. Arteta
M. Arteta
2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.75
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bodø / Glimt Rank: 83 W
Bodø / Glimt Rank: 84 L
Athletic Club Rank: 77 W
Paris Saint Germain Rank: 93 W
FC Bayern München Rank: 100 L
Club Brugge Rank: 84 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: 89 W
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: 89 D
Kairat Rank: W
Inter Rank: 90 W
Club Brugge Rank: 84 W
FC Bayern München Rank: 100 W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 3 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sporting CP
21.8%
Draw
25.78%
Away Arsenal
52.42%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
88.73
99.09
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sporting CP
Arsenal
Power Score
88.73
99.09
League Position
7
1
Global Rank
17
2

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sporting CP — Opponent-weighted form score
Arsenal — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sporting CP Arsenal

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sporting CP

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Arsenal

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sporting CP ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Arsenal
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.84
17.14
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
17.14
27.84
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sporting CP +0.81 Efficiency Index
vs
Arsenal -0.81 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sporting CP
Arsenal
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sporting CP ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Arsenal
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sporting CP Arsenal
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sporting CP Arsenal
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sporting CP
Arsenal
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Sporting CP
vs
Arsenal
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sporting CP Arsenal
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Sporting CP 0.44
Arsenal 0.13
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sporting CP Arsenal
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Sporting CP 0.02
Arsenal 0.00
Sporting CP
Arsenal
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sporting CP SCP Home
5 matches
Arsenal ARS Away
Match Record
0
Wins
2
3
Draws
3
2
Losses
0
Goals
4
Goals Scored
9
9
Goals Conceded
4
-5
Goal Difference
+5
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-08T00:02:38+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
R. Dantas da Silva
Portugal
1 R. Dantas da Silva
I. Fresneda Corraliza
Spain
22 I. Fresneda Corraliza
O. Diomande
Ivory Coast
26 O. Diomande
G. Inácio
Portugal
25 G. Inácio
M. Araújo Vilches
Uruguay
20 M. Araújo Vilches
H. Morita
Japan
5 H. Morita
J. Arnauth Barrocas Simões
Substitution
Portugal
52 J. Arnauth Barrocas Simões
G. Cipriano Catamo
Mozambique
10 G. Cipriano Catamo
F. Machado Mota de Castro Trincão
Portugal
17 F. Machado Mota de Castro Trincão
P. Pereira Gonçalves
Substitution
Portugal
8 P. Pereira Gonçalves
L. Suárez Charris
Colombia
97 L. Suárez Charris
D. Raya Martin
Spain
1 D. Raya Martin
R. Calafiori
Italy
33 R. Calafiori
G. dos Santos Magalhães
Brazil
6 G. dos Santos Magalhães
W. Saliba
France
2 W. Saliba
B. White
England
4 B. White
D. Rice
Republic of Ireland
41 D. Rice
M. Zubimendi Ibáñez
Spain
36 M. Zubimendi Ibáñez
M. Ødegaard
Substitution
Norway
8 M. Ødegaard
L. Trossard
Substitution
Belgium
19 L. Trossard
V. Gyökeres
Sweden
14 V. Gyökeres
C. Madueke
Substitution
England
20 C. Madueke

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 07, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Champions League, Europe · Quarter Finals · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium
Estádio José Alvalade
Capacity
52095
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Daniel Siebert
Jan Seidel
Rafael Foltyn
Daniel Schlager

Statistics

Possession
SCP
45%
ARS
55%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 1
5 Shots 4
25 Dangerous attacks 52
44 Possession 56
3 Corners 4
11 Free kicks 13
1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

36 Successful Dribbles Percentage 62
15 Throwins 7
6 Goal Kicks 6
1 Hit Woodwork 1
4 Successful Dribbles 8
11 Dribble Attempts 13
66 Ball Safe 73
6 Goal Attempts 8
2 Substitutions 3
0 Assists 1

Attacking

74 Attacks 115
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

405 Passes 510
7 Key Passes 6
85 Successful Passes Percentage 92
346 Successful Passes 467
40 Long Passes 27
22 Successful Long Passes 14
55 Successful Long Passes Percentage 52

Defensive

3 Saves 5
32 Duels Won 38
14 Tackles 14
8 Interceptions 10

Build-up

11 Total Crosses 16
1 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

11 Fouls 10
2 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Daniel Siebert

Starting XI ▼

1
Rui Silva
Rui Silva Goalkeeper
20
Maxi Araújo
Maxi Araújo Defender
22
Iván Fresneda
Iván Fresneda Defender
25
Gonçalo Inácio
Gonçalo Inácio Defender
26
Ousmane Diomande
Ousmane Diomande Defender
5
Hidemasa Morita
Hidemasa Morita Midfielder
8
Pedro Gonçalves
Pedro Gonçalves Midfielder
90
Rafael Nel
Rafael Nel
Attacker79'
10
Geny Catamo
Geny Catamo Midfielder
17
Francisco Trincão
Francisco Trincão Midfielder
52
João Simões
João Simões Midfielder
23
Daniel Bragança
Daniel Bragança
Midfielder62'
97
Luis Suárez
Luis Suárez Attacker
Referee : Daniel Siebert

Starting XI ▼

1
David Raya
David Raya Goalkeeper
2
William Saliba
William Saliba Defender
4
Ben White
Ben White Defender
6
Gabriel Magalhães
Gabriel Magalhães Defender
33
Riccardo Calafiori
Riccardo Calafiori Defender
8
Martin Ødegaard
Martin Ødegaard Midfielder
29
Kai Havertz
Kai Havertz
Attacker70'
36
Martín Zubimendi
Martín Zubimendi Midfielder
41
Declan Rice
Declan Rice Midfielder
14
Viktor Gyökeres
Viktor Gyökeres Attacker
19
Leandro Trossard
Leandro Trossard Attacker
11
Gabriel Martinelli
Gabriel Martinelli
Attacker76'
20
Noni Madueke
Noni Madueke Attacker
56
Max Dowman
Max Dowman
Midfielder76'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Kai Havertz
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Rafael Nel → Pedro Gonçalves
5th Substitution
79'
76'
Event
Max Dowman → Noni Madueke
3rd Substitution
76'
Event
Gabriel Martinelli → Leandro Trossard
4th Substitution
70'
Event
Kai Havertz → Martin Ødegaard
2nd Substitution
64'
Event
Martín Zubimendi
Goal disallowed
Event
Daniel Bragança → João Simões
1st Substitution
62'
1ST-HALF
Event
Hidemasa Morita
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
31'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The second half ends with Sporting Lisbon 0, Arsenal 1.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Arsenal takes the lead 1-0 against Sporting Lisbon as Kai Havertz scores with a left-footed shot into the left corner, assisted by Gabriel Martinelli's through ball.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 2 minutes of added time.
90
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Bragança's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked.
88
Update Update
Luis Suárez of Sporting Lisbon won a free kick in defense.
88
Update Update
Foul committed by Kai Havertz of Arsenal.
87
Attempt Attempt
Geny Catamo of Sporting Lisbon attempts an attack with a right-footed shot from the right side of the box, but David Raya, the Arsenal goalkeeper, saves it in the center of the goal. The assist was provided by Luis Suárez.
87
Update Update
New attacking attempt. Luis Suárez from Sporting Lisbon shoots with his right foot from the right side of the six-yard box, but David Raya, the Arsenal goalkeeper, saves it in the center of the goal.
85
Update Update
Gabriel Martinelli of Arsenal makes an attacking attempt, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, but Rui Silva, the goalkeeper for Sporting Lisbon, saves it in the center of the goal. The assist came from Declan Rice.
85
Update Update
Max Dowman of Arsenal won a free kick on the right wing.
83
Corner Corner
Sporting Lisbon wins a corner, conceded by David Raya.
83
Corner Corner
Geny Catamo of Sporting Lisbon attempts an attack with a header from the center of the box, but David Raya of Arsenal saves it in the right corner. The assist came from Luis Suárez, who provided the cross.
82
Update Update
Max Dowman of Arsenal commits a handball.
80
Update Update
Max Dowman of Arsenal won a free kick in defense.
80
Update Update
Maxi Araújo fouled a player from Sporting Lisbon.
80
Update Update
Maxi Araújo fouled a player from Sporting Lisbon.
80
Update Update
Max Dowman of Arsenal won a free kick in defense.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sporting Lisbon: Rafael Nel replaces Pote.
78
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Geny Catamo from Sporting Lisbon shot with his left foot from the right side of the box.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arsenal: Max Dowman replaces Noni Madueke.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arsenal: Gabriel Martinelli replaces Leandro Trossard due to injury.
72
Update Update
Maxi Araújo from Sporting Lisbon won a free kick in defense.
72
Update Update
Foul committed by Viktor Gyökeres against Arsenal.
72
Update Update
Viktor Gyökeres of Arsenal won a free kick in defense.
72
Update Update
Foul by Ousmane Diomande of Sporting Lisbon.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arsenal: Kai Havertz replaces Martin Ødegaard due to injury.
70
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Pote from Sporting Lisbon.
67
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Viktor Gyökeres of Arsenal takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the box, but Rui Silva, the goalkeeper for Sporting Lisbon, saves it in the center of the goal. The assist comes from Martín Zubimendi.
65
Update Update
Riccardo Calafiori of Arsenal won a free kick in defense.
64
Update Update
VAR review confirms no goal. The match remains 0-0 between Sporting Lisbon and Arsenal.
63
Update Update
VAR decision confirms no goal, keeping the match score at Sporting Lisbon 0, Arsenal 0.
63
Update Update
Goal overturned by VAR: Martín Zubimendi scores for Arsenal, but the goal is disallowed after a VAR review.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sporting Lisbon: Daniel Bragança replaces João Simões.
62
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Martin Ødegaard from Arsenal.
59
Update Update
Viktor Gyökeres of Arsenal won a free kick in defense.
59
Update Update
Foul committed by João Simões of Sporting Lisbon.
58
Corner Corner
Sporting Lisbon is awarded a corner after Riccardo Calafiori concedes.
57
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Trincão from Sporting Lisbon took a left-footed shot from the left side of the box but missed. Assist by Maxi Araújo.
56
Update Update
Luis Suárez of Sporting Lisbon won a free kick in defense.
56
Update Update
Foul committed by William Saliba of Arsenal.
54
Corner Corner
Arsenal win a corner after Trincão concedes.
53
Corner Corner
Arsenal win a corner after Rui Silva concedes.
52
Update Update
Geny Catamo of Sporting Lisbon won a free kick in defense.
52
Update Update
Geny Catamo of Sporting Lisbon won a free kick in defense.
52
Update Update
Maxi Araújo fouled a player from Sporting Lisbon.
52
Update Update
Noni Madueke of Arsenal won a free kick on the right wing.
49
Attempt Attempt
Leandro Trossard from Arsenal misses a chance with a right-footed shot from outside the box.
47
Update Update
Geny Catamo from Sporting Lisbon is flagged for offside.
46
Corner Corner
Sporting Lisbon is awarded a corner after Ben White concedes.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at 0-0 between Sporting Lisbon and Arsenal.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be no added time.
45
Attempt Attempt
Leandro Trossard's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Declan Rice provided the assist.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Sporting Lisbon and Arsenal tied at 0-0.
43
Update Update
Foul committed by Gabriel Magalhães of Arsenal.
43
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Martin Ødegaard of Arsenal takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but Rui Silva, the goalkeeper for Sporting Lisbon, saves it in the center of the goal. The assist comes from Ben White, who provided a header.
43
Update Update
Luis Suárez of Sporting Lisbon won a free kick in defense.
39
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Luis Suárez of Sporting Lisbon receives a yellow card.
31
Update Update
Leandro Trossard from Arsenal won a free kick on the right wing.
31
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Hidemasa Morita from Sporting Lisbon receives a yellow card for a foul.
31
Update Update
Hidemasa Morita of Sporting Lisbon commits a foul.
29
Update Update
Trincão from Sporting Lisbon won a free kick in defense.
29
Update Update
Foul committed by Ben White of Arsenal.
28
Corner Corner
Arsenal win a corner after Maxi Araújo concedes.
23
Update Update
Maxi Araújo fouled a player from Sporting Lisbon.
23
Update Update
Ben White from Arsenal won a free kick in defense.
20
Update Update
Noni Madueke from Arsenal won a free kick on the right wing.
20
Update Update
Maxi Araújo fouled a player from Sporting Lisbon.
16
Update Update
Geny Catamo of Sporting Lisbon won a free kick in defense.
16
Update Update
Foul committed by Riccardo Calafiori against Arsenal.
15
Corner Corner
Missed chance. Martin Ødegaard from Arsenal shot with his left foot from the center of the box but missed after a corner.
14
Corner Corner
Arsenal win a corner after Ousmane Diomande concedes.
12
Update Update
Noni Madueke from Arsenal won a free kick on the right wing.
12
Update Update
Maxi Araújo fouled a player from Sporting Lisbon.
10
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Geny Catamo from Sporting Lisbon takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the box, but it's saved.
9
Update Update
Geny Catamo of Sporting Lisbon is flagged for offside.
9
Update Update
Noni Madueke of Arsenal is flagged for offside.
8
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Maxi Araújo from Sporting Lisbon shoots with his left foot from outside the box, but it goes high.
8
Attempt Attempt
Trincão's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
6
Update Update
Foul committed by Declan Rice - Arsenal.
6
Update Update
Geny Catamo of Sporting Lisbon won a free kick in the attacking area.
6
Attempt Attempt
Maxi Araújo from Sporting Lisbon hits the woodwork with a left-footed shot from the left side of the box.
2
Update Update
William Saliba of Arsenal won a free kick in an attacking position.
2
Update Update
Luis Suárez won a free kick in defense for Sporting Lisbon.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Arsenal exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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