Vejle Boldklub vs Randers FC Prediction, Preview and Stats

Denmark flag 2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark
Vejle Stadion Mon, 6 Apr - 12:00 PM
Superliga
Vejle Boldklub Vejle Boldklub
1 – 1
Randers FC RDF
Full Time Mon, 6 Apr 12:00 PM
Round 3 Relegation Round
Mikkel Duelund - 90+4' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Elies Mahmoud - 10'

CONTEXT

The match between Vejle Boldklub and Randers FC has officially finished with a 1-1 full-time score. Randers FC initially took control, holding a 1-0 advantage at half-time, but the hosts fought back in the second half to secure an equalizer. Pre-match market expectations marginally favored Randers FC with a 38.1% win probability, while Vejle Boldklub sat at 33.6% and the draw was priced at 28.3%. Vejle Boldklub dictated much of the play, finishing the game with 59% possession compared to just 41% for the away side. Because expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, it cannot be determined if the final outcome perfectly aligned with the underlying chance quality. However, the finishing efficiency shift for both teams was in line with standard expectations over the course of the ninety minutes. Because the game ended in a draw, the final outcome was not aligned with the pre-match market. This resulted in a significant deviation level of 71.7%, representing a missed opportunity for the favored Randers FC. The match was played without any red cards, ensuring no major disciplinary events impacted the final result.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Randers FC showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
T. Christensen
T. Christensen
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.5
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.5
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.04
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
F. Svendsen
F. Svendsen
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.5
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.5
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.04
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
S. Putros
S. Putros
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.5
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.5
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.04
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
J. Dahl
J. Dahl
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.5
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.5
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.04
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Vejle Boldklub C. Nørgaard
C. Nørgaard
VS
Randers FC R. Bertelsen
R. Bertelsen
0.69
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Odense BK Rank: 57 D
Silkeborg IF Rank: 56 D
AGF Rank: 71 L
Nordsjælland Rank: 66 D
Randers FC Rank: 60 L
Fredericia Rank: 52 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Silkeborg IF Rank: 56 L
Fredericia Rank: 52 W
FC København Rank: 68 W
Fredericia Rank: 52 L
Vejle Boldklub Rank: 51 W
Brøndby IF Rank: 65 D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 5 - 14
14

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Vejle Boldklub
33.62%
Draw
28.33%
Away Randers FC
38.06%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
50.58
60.38
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Vejle Boldklub
Randers FC
Power Score
50.58
60.38
League Position
12
9
Global Rank
733
460

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Vejle Boldklub — Opponent-weighted form score
Randers FC — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Vejle Boldklub Randers FC

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Vejle Boldklub

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Randers FC

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Vejle Boldklub ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Randers FC
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
17.97
35.49
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
35.49
17.97
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Vejle Boldklub -1.68 Efficiency Index
vs
Randers FC +1.68 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Vejle Boldklub
Randers FC
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Vejle Boldklub ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Randers FC
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Vejle Boldklub Randers FC
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Vejle Boldklub Randers FC
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Vejle Boldklub
Randers FC
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Vejle Boldklub
vs
Randers FC
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Vejle Boldklub Randers FC
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Vejle Boldklub 0.10
Randers FC 0.42
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Vejle Boldklub Randers FC
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Vejle Boldklub 0.03
Randers FC 0.01
Vejle Boldklub
Randers FC
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 20 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Vejle Boldklub Vejle Boldklub Home
20 matches
Randers FC RDF Away
Match Record
1
Wins
14
5
Draws
5
14
Losses
1
Goals
14
Goals Scored
37
37
Goals Conceded
14
-23
Goal Difference
+23
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-07T00:02:27+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
I. Vekič
Slovenia
1 I. Vekič
L. Flø Borregaard
Denmark
23 L. Flø Borregaard
L. Ladegaard Nielsen
Denmark
4 L. Ladegaard Nielsen
V. Jensen
Denmark
5 V. Jensen
C. Sørensen
Denmark
3 C. Sørensen
T. Gundelund
Denmark
2 T. Gundelund
M. Vestergård
Substitution
Denmark
6 M. Vestergård
C. Gammelgaard
Substitution
Denmark
7 C. Gammelgaard
A. Hjulsager
Substitution
Denmark
17 A. Hjulsager
T. Bach
Substitution
Denmark
16 T. Bach
A. Camara
Substitution
France
20 A. Camara
P. Izzo
Australia
1 P. Izzo
N. Dyhr
Denmark
44 N. Dyhr
W. Dammers
Netherlands
4 W. Dammers
D. Høegh
Denmark
3 D. Høegh
S. Osman Hansen
Denmark
24 S. Osman Hansen
J. Björkengren
Sweden
6 J. Björkengren
L. Raun Pedersen
Substitution
Denmark
8 L. Raun Pedersen
M. Greve
Substitution
Denmark
17 M. Greve
M. Themsen
Substitution
Denmark
7 M. Themsen
E. Mahmoud
Substitution
France
11 E. Mahmoud
C. Edudzi
Substitution
33 C. Edudzi

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 06, 2026, 12:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark · Round 3 · Relegation Round
Stadium
Vejle Stadion
Capacity
10657
Attendance
4459
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Troels Christensen
Frederik Svendsen
Sandi Putros
Jesper Dahl

Statistics

Possession
Vejle Boldklub
56%
RDF
44%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 2
7 Shots 13
72 Dangerous attacks 31
59 Possession 41
3 Corners 3
11 Free kicks 13
3 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

6 Goal Attempts 10
88 Ball Safe 91
56 Successful Dribbles Percentage 48
25 Dribble Attempts 21
14 Successful Dribbles 10
29 Throwins 17
4 Goal Kicks 12
0 Injuries 1
5 Substitutions 5
1 Penalties 0

Attacking

156 Attacks 78
1 Counter Attacks 3
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

3 Key Passes 7
506 Passes 356
74 Successful Passes Percentage 65
372 Successful Passes 232
64 Long Passes 78
20 Successful Long Passes 28
31 Successful Long Passes Percentage 36

Defensive

4 Saves 2
65 Duels Won 63
21 Tackles 21
11 Interceptions 11

Build-up

17 Total Crosses 14
6 Accurate Crosses 8

Discipline

13 Fouls 12
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Sandi Putros

Starting XI ▼

1
Igor Vekic
Igor Vekic Goalkeeper
3
Christian Sørensen
Christian Sørensen Defender
4
Lasse Nielsen
Lasse Nielsen Defender
5
Valdemar Lund
Valdemar Lund Defender
23
Lasse Flø
Lasse Flø Defender
2
Thomas Gundelund
Thomas Gundelund Midfielder
6
Mike Vestergård
Mike Vestergård Midfielder
30
Mads Enggård
Mads Enggård
Midfielder60'
7
Christian Gammelgaard
Christian Gammelgaard Midfielder
32
Bismark Edjeodji
Bismark Edjeodji
Midfielder46'
16
T. Bach
T. Bach Midfielder
25
Nicolas Alexander Gammelgaard Grøndal
Nicolas Alexander Gammelgaard Grøndal
Attacker86'
17
Andrew Hjulsager
Andrew Hjulsager Midfielder
10
Mikkel Duelund
Mikkel Duelund
Midfielder60'
20
Abdoulaye Camara
Abdoulaye Camara Attacker
21
Giorgi Tabatadze
Giorgi Tabatadze
Defender74'
Referee : Sandi Putros

Starting XI ▼

1
Paul Izzo
Paul Izzo Goalkeeper
3
Daniel Høegh
Daniel Høegh Defender
4
Wessel Dammers
Wessel Dammers Defender
24
Sabil Hansen
Sabil Hansen Defender
44
Nikolas Dyhr
Nikolas Dyhr Defender
6
John Björkengren
John Björkengren Midfielder
7
Mike Themsen
Mike Themsen Midfielder
14
Frederik Lauenborg
Frederik Lauenborg
Midfielder65'
8
Laurits Pedersen
Laurits Pedersen Midfielder
28
André Römer
André Römer
Midfielder80'
11
Elies Mahmoud
Elies Mahmoud Midfielder
23
Benjamin Orn
Benjamin Orn
Defender87'
17
Mathias Greve
Mathias Greve Midfielder
15
M. Sjølstad
M. Sjølstad
Defender80'
33
Cyril Edudzi
Cyril Edudzi Attacker
30
Thibault Klidjé
Thibault Klidjé
Attacker65'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Mikkel Duelund
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
90+4'
87'
Event
Benjamin Orn → Elies Mahmoud
10th Substitution
Event
Nicolas Alexander Gammelgaard Grøndal → T. Bach
9th Substitution
86'
80'
Event
André Römer → Laurits Pedersen
7th Substitution
80'
Event
M. Sjølstad → Mathias Greve
8th Substitution
Event
Giorgi Tabatadze → Abdoulaye Camara
6th Substitution
74'
65'
Event
Thibault Klidjé → Cyril Edudzi
4th Substitution
65'
Event
Frederik Lauenborg → Mike Themsen
5th Substitution
Event
Mads Enggård → Mike Vestergård
3rd Substitution
60'
Event
Mikkel Duelund → Andrew Hjulsager
2nd Substitution
60'
Event
Bismark Edjeodji
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
57'
Event
5th Yellowcard
54'
52'
Event
Nikolas Dyhr
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
T. Bach
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
50'
Event
Mike Vestergård
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
48'
Event
Bismark Edjeodji → Christian Gammelgaard
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
10'
Event
Elies Mahmoud
Left foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Randers FC exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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