Vålerenga vs Viking Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2026 Eliteserien, Norway

Intility Arena Mon, 6 Apr - 12:30 PM

Eliteserien

Vålerenga Vålerenga

Viking Viking

Full Time Mon, 6 Apr 12:30 PM

Round 3 Regular Season

Simen Kvia-Egeskog - 45'

Sebastian Jarl 90+8'

Unknown 73'

CONTEXT

The match between Vålerenga and Viking has finished with a 1-0 full-time victory for the away side, Viking. The visitors secured their advantage early, establishing a 1-0 lead by half-time that ultimately stood as the decisive scoreline. Going into the fixture, Viking were considered the stronger team. Pre-match market probabilities reflected this dynamic, giving Viking a 42.2% chance of winning compared to Vålerenga's 33.3%, alongside a 24.6% likelihood of a draw. The final outcome fully aligned with these pre-match market expectations. However, the performance still registered as a significant deviation level of 57.8% favoring Viking. Despite the home defeat, Vålerenga actually held a slight edge on the ball, finishing with 51% possession against Viking's 49%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, so it is undetermined if the 1-0 outcome aligned with the underlying shot quality. The overall attacking efficiency shift remained firmly in line with standard expectations. Crucially, the match dynamics were heavily impacted by a red card issued to Vålerenga. Being reduced to ten men caused noticeable second-half red card distortion, crippling the home side's momentum and preventing them from mounting a comeback.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Viking showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

T. Hansen

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Jensen

1st Assistant

M. Lundberg

2nd Assistant

H. Holthe

4th Official

G. Bakke

M. Jensen

1.63

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

2.63

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

18 - 8 - 12

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Vålerenga

33.25%

Draw

24.55%

Viking

42.2%

Team Power Ranking

61.36

75.82

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Vålerenga

Viking

Power Score

61.36

75.82

League Position

Global Rank

425

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Vålerenga — Opponent-weighted form score

Viking — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Vålerenga Viking

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Vålerenga

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Viking

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Vålerenga ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Viking

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

35.78

42.86

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

42.86

35.78

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Vålerenga -0.72 Efficiency Index

Viking +0.72 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Vålerenga

Viking

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Vålerenga ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Viking

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Vålerenga Viking

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Vålerenga Viking

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Vålerenga

Viking

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Vålerenga

Viking

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Vålerenga Viking

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Vålerenga Viking

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Vålerenga

Viking

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 38 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Vålerenga Vålerenga Home

38 matches

Viking Viking Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

+10

Goal Difference

-10

Data last updated: 2026-04-07T00:02:03+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2

Match Formation 4-1-4-1

1 O. Hedvall

3 H. Sjåtil

4 A. Olsen

37 I. Näsberg

2 K. Finnsson

26 F. Thorvaldsen

28 M. Westergaard

10 C. Lange

11 E. Sørensen

8 H. Bjørdal

90 O. Saeter

1 A. Østbø

28 K. Haugen

25 H. Falchener

6 G. Stensness

5 H. Heggheim

8 J. Bell

10 Z. Tripić

26 S. Kvia-Egeskog

7 K. Askildsen

23 N. Kemp Fuglestad

20 P. Christiansen

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 06, 2026, 12:30 PM

Competition :

2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 3 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Intility Arena

Capacity :

3000

Attendance :

14712

Pitch Surface :

Artificial turf

Weather :

☀️ , Clear

Referees :

Morten Jensen

Magnus Lundberg

Herman Holthe

Tore Hansen

Statistics

Possession

Vålerenga

50%

Viking

50%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1

0 Big Chances Created 3

7 Shots 16

45 Dangerous attacks 60

51 Possession 49

10 Corners 5

14 Free kicks 7

2 Yellow Cards 4

1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

17 Throwins 23

27 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50

9 Goal Kicks 14

3 Successful Dribbles 5

5 Goal Attempts 5

64 Ball Safe 57

5 Substitutions 5

11 Dribble Attempts 10

Attacking

89 Attacks 93

1 Counter Attacks 1

0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

78 Successful Passes Percentage 78

335 Successful Passes 328

431 Passes 419

9 Key Passes 13

80 Long Passes 50

28 Successful Long Passes 20

35 Successful Long Passes Percentage 40

Defensive

12 Tackles 17

35 Duels Won 46

6 Interceptions 10

5 Saves 2

Build-up

28 Total Crosses 17

4 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

7 Fouls 14

1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Tore Hansen

Manager ▼

G. Bakke Coach

Starting XI ▼

Oscar Hedvall Goalkeeper

Kolbeinn Finnsson Defender

Hakon Sjatil Defender

Petter Strand

Midfielder73'

Aaron Kiil Olsen Defender

Ivan Näsberg Defender

Carl Lange Midfielder

Elias Sørensen Midfielder

Lucas Haren

Midfielder46'

Filip Thorvaldsen Midfielder

Gabriel Rajkovic

Attacker87'

Magnus Westergaard Midfielder

Fidel Brice Ambina

Midfielder74'

Henrik Bjørdal Attacker

Ole Sæter Attacker

M. Grundetjern

Midfielder61'

Substitutes ▼

Lucas Haren

Midfielder46'

M. Grundetjern

Midfielder61'

Petter Strand

Midfielder73'

Fidel Brice Ambina

Midfielder74'

Gabriel Rajkovic

Attacker87'

Bench ▼

Magnus Sjøeng Goalkeeper

Vegar Eggen Hedenstad Defender

Sebastian Jarl Defender

Stian Thorstensen Midfielder

Referee : Tore Hansen