Bari 1908 vs Modena Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Comunale San Nicola Mon, 6 Apr - 1:00 PM
Serie B
Bari 1908 BAR
3 Winner 1
Modena MOD
Full Time Mon, 6 Apr 1:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Gabriele Moncini - 22' (P)
Davide Adorni - 31' (Own Goal)
Marvin Cuni - 80'
Goal
|
Goal
Giuseppe Ambrosino - 90'

CONTEXT

The match between Bari 1908 and Modena has officially finished, with Bari 1908 securing an unexpected 3-1 victory. This result stands as a significant deviation from pre-match expectations in favor of Bari 1908. Before kickoff, the market heavily favored the stronger visiting side, giving Modena a 53.5% chance of winning, while assigning just a 20% probability to the home team and 26.5% to a draw. Consequently, the final outcome did not align with the pre-match market predictions. Despite suffering the upset, Modena dominated the ball, finishing with 63% possession while Bari 1908 managed only 37%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to evaluate if the 3-1 outcome was consistent with the underlying offensive chances created. However, the match's efficiency shift was recorded as being in line with standard performance variations. Bari 1908 established their control early, taking a 2-0 lead into halftime before finishing the job. The fixture remained disciplined with zero red cards issued to either side, meaning no major disciplinary events impacted the tactical flow as the home side securely held off Modena.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Bari 1908 showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
E. Feliciani
E. Feliciani
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.11
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.37
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
F. Votta
F. Votta
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.11
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.37
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
G. Zanellati
G. Zanellati
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.11
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.37
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
A. Arena
A. Arena
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.11
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.37
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
Bari 1908 M. Longo
M. Longo
VS
Modena A. Sottil
A. Sottil
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.38
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Carrarese Rank: 53 L
Frosinone Rank: 64 L
Reggiana Rank: 49 W
Pescara Rank: 49 L
Empoli Rank: 55 W
Sampdoria Rank: 52 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Mantova Rank: 52 W
Spezia Rank: 53 W
Cesena Rank: 54 D
Virtus Entella Rank: 47 L
Calcio Padova Rank: 48 L
Juve Stabia Rank: 55 W
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 8 - 9
9

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Bari 1908
20.01%
Draw
26.5%
Away Modena
53.49%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
50.59
57.58
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Bari 1908
Modena
Power Score
50.59
57.58
League Position
17
6
Global Rank
732
546

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Bari 1908 — Opponent-weighted form score
Modena — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Bari 1908 Modena

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Bari 1908

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Modena

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Bari 1908 ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Modena
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
36.76
35.48
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
35.48
36.76
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Bari 1908 +0.13 Efficiency Index
vs
Modena -0.13 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Bari 1908
Modena
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Bari 1908 ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Modena
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Bari 1908 Modena
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Bari 1908 Modena
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Bari 1908
Modena
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Bari 1908
vs
Modena
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Bari 1908 Modena
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Bari 1908 0.38
Modena 0.28
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Bari 1908 Modena
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Bari 1908 0.01
Modena 0.09
Bari 1908
Modena
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 25 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Bari 1908 BAR Home
25 matches
Modena MOD Away
Match Record
8
Wins
9
8
Draws
8
9
Losses
8
Goals
29
Goals Scored
33
33
Goals Conceded
29
-4
Goal Difference
+4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-07T00:02:39+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
M. Cerofolini
Italy
31 M. Cerofolini
A. Cistana
Italy
51 A. Cistana
C. Odenthal
Netherlands
26 C. Odenthal
V. Mantovani
Italy
13 V. Mantovani
B. Manè
Italy
30 B. Manè
F. Artioli
Substitution
Italy
80 F. Artioli
G. Maggiore
Substitution
Italy
18 G. Maggiore
K. Piscopo
Italy
28 K. Piscopo
T. Pontes Esteves
Substitution
Portugal
19 T. Pontes Esteves
E. Rao
Substitution
Italy
17 E. Rao
G. Moncini
Substitution
Italy
11 G. Moncini
L. Chichizola
Argentina
1 L. Chichizola
B. Nieling
Netherlands
20 B. Nieling
D. Adorni
Substitution
Italy
28 D. Adorni
D. Tonoli
Italy
77 D. Tonoli
L. Zanimacchia
Substitution
Italy
98 L. Zanimacchia
S. Santoro
Italy
8 S. Santoro
F. Gerli
Italy
16 F. Gerli
S. Wiafe
Substitution
71 S. Wiafe
F. Zampano
Substitution
Italy
7 F. Zampano
E. Gliozzi
Substitution
Italy
9 E. Gliozzi
M. De Luca
Italy
99 M. De Luca

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 06, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Comunale San Nicola
Capacity
58300
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Ermanno Feliciani
Federico Votta
Glauco Zanellati
Alberto Arena

Statistics

Possession
BAR
41%
MOD
59%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
5 Big Chances Created 4
8 Shots 6
32 Dangerous attacks 67
37 Possession 63
4 Corners 7
13 Free kicks 2
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40
14 Goal Kicks 7
5 Dribble Attempts 6
12 Throwins 22
1 Hit Woodwork 1
1 Penalties 0
79 Ball Safe 85
13 Goal Attempts 16
5 Successful Dribbles 6
5 Substitutions 5
3 Injuries 1
1 Assists 1

Attacking

71 Attacks 107

Possession

180 Successful Passes 323
258 Passes 398
24 Long Passes 15
70 Successful Passes Percentage 81
10 Key Passes 11

Defensive

8 Saves 8
12 Tackles 16
50 Duels Won 47
7 Interceptions 3

Build-up

8 Total Crosses 24

Discipline

1 Offsides 0
2 Fouls 14

Lineup

Referee : Alberto Arena

Starting XI ▼

31
Michele Cerofolini
Michele Cerofolini Goalkeeper
13
Valerio Mantovani
Valerio Mantovani Defender
26
Cas Odenthal
Cas Odenthal Defender
51
Andrea Cistana
Andrea Cistana Defender
18
Giulio Maggiore
Giulio Maggiore Midfielder
66
Daouda Traore
Daouda Traore
Midfielder87'
28
Kevin Piscopo
Kevin Piscopo Midfielder
30
Moussa Mané
Moussa Mané Midfielder
80
Federico Artioli
Federico Artioli Midfielder
27
Matthias Braunöder
Matthias Braunöder
Midfielder62'
11
Gabriele Moncini
Gabriele Moncini Attacker
90
Marvin Cuni
Marvin Cuni
Attacker69'
17
Emanuele Rao
Emanuele Rao Attacker
93
Mehdi Dorval
Mehdi Dorval
Defender69'
19
Tomás Esteves
Tomás Esteves Attacker
29
Matthias Verreth
Matthias Verreth
Midfielder87'
Referee : Alberto Arena

Starting XI ▼

1
Leandro Chichizola
Leandro Chichizola Goalkeeper
20
Bryant Nieling
Bryant Nieling Defender
28
Davide Adorni
Davide Adorni Defender
92
Grégoire Defrel
Grégoire Defrel
Attacker79'
77
Daniel Tonoli
Daniel Tonoli Defender
7
Francesco Zampano
Francesco Zampano Midfielder
2
Gady Beyuku
Gady Beyuku
Defender46'
8
Simone Santoro
Simone Santoro Midfielder
16
Fabio Gerli
Fabio Gerli Midfielder
71
Samuel Wiafe
Samuel Wiafe Midfielder
17
Yanis Massolin
Yanis Massolin
Midfielder46'
98
Luca Zanimacchia
Luca Zanimacchia Midfielder
29
Matteo Cotali
Matteo Cotali
Defender75'
9
Ettore Gliozzi
Ettore Gliozzi Attacker
10
Giuseppe Ambrosino
Giuseppe Ambrosino
Attacker48'
99
Manuel De Luca
Manuel De Luca Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Valerio Mantovani
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
90+7'
90+7'
Event
Yanis Massolin
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
90'
Event
Giuseppe Ambrosino
Header / 2nd Goal
88'
Event
Fabio Gerli
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Daouda Traore → Giulio Maggiore
9th Substitution
87'
Event
Matthias Verreth → Tomás Esteves
10th Substitution
87'
Event
Marvin Cuni
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
80'
79'
Event
Grégoire Defrel → Davide Adorni
8th Substitution
75'
Event
Matteo Cotali → Luca Zanimacchia
7th Substitution
Event
Marvin Cuni → Gabriele Moncini
5th Substitution
69'
Event
Mehdi Dorval → Emanuele Rao
6th Substitution
69'
Event
Matthias Braunöder → Federico Artioli
4th Substitution
62'
Event
Giulio Maggiore
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
59'
Event
Kevin Piscopo
Penalty disallowed
51'
48'
Event
Giuseppe Ambrosino → Ettore Gliozzi
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Gady Beyuku → Francesco Zampano
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Yanis Massolin → Samuel Wiafe
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Davide Adorni
Header / 1st Own Goal
31'
Event
Gabriele Moncini
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
22'
Event
Emanuele Rao
Penalty awarded
20'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Bari 1908 exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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