Catanzaro vs Monza Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Nicola Ceravolo Mon, 6 Apr - 1:00 PM
Serie B
Catanzaro CAT
1 – 1
Monza MON
Full Time Mon, 6 Apr 1:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Simone Pontisso - 6'
Goal
|
Goal
Matteo Pessina - 90+6' (P)
Gabriele Alesi 36' Red Card
|
Second yellow card Patrick Cutrone 48'
Red Card Keita Baldé 76'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Catanzaro 0–1 Monza. The result saw Monza take the points. Monza showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 47%–53%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Monza showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
G. Ayroldi
G. Ayroldi
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.11
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.37
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
G. Perrotti
G. Perrotti
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.11
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.37
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
S. Biffi
S. Biffi
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.11
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.37
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
C. Esposito
C. Esposito
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.11
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.37
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
Catanzaro A. Aquilani
A. Aquilani
VS
Monza P. Bianco
P. Bianco
1.92
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.16
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cesena Rank: 52 L
Calcio Padova Rank: 50 W
Empoli Rank: 55 W
Carrarese Rank: 56 D
Frosinone Rank: 66 D
Virtus Entella Rank: 47 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Venezia Rank: 69 D
Reggiana Rank: 48 D
Palermo Rank: 64 W
Spezia Rank: 51 L
Cesena Rank: 54 W
Virtus Entella Rank: 47 W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Catanzaro
30.02%
Draw
27.97%
Away Monza
42.01%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
60.25
59.46
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Catanzaro
Monza
Power Score
60.25
59.46
League Position
5
3
Global Rank
463
311

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Catanzaro — Opponent-weighted form score
Monza — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Catanzaro Monza

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Catanzaro

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Monza

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Catanzaro ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Monza
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.38
24.25
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
24.25
31.38
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Catanzaro +0.70 Efficiency Index
vs
Monza -0.70 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Catanzaro
Monza
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Catanzaro ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Monza
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Catanzaro Monza
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Catanzaro Monza
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Catanzaro
Monza
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Catanzaro
vs
Monza
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Catanzaro Monza
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Catanzaro 0.37
Monza 0.18
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Catanzaro Monza
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Catanzaro 0.02
Monza 0.03
Catanzaro
Monza
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Catanzaro CAT Home
1 matches
Monza MON Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
1
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-07T00:02:31+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
M. Pigliacelli
Italy
22 M. Pigliacelli
T. Cassandro
Italy
84 T. Cassandro
M. Antonini Lui
Brazil
4 M. Antonini Lui
N. Brighenti
Italy
23 N. Brighenti
G. Alesi
Italy
30 G. Alesi
J. Petriccione
Italy
10 J. Petriccione
S. Pontisso
Substitution
Italy
20 S. Pontisso
M. D'Alessandro
Substitution
Italy
77 M. D'Alessandro
C. Favasuli
Italy
27 C. Favasuli
F. Pittarello
Substitution
Italy
8 F. Pittarello
M. Liberali
Substitution
Italy
14 M. Liberali
D. Thiam
Senegal
20 D. Thiam
L. Lucchesi
Substitution
Italy
3 L. Lucchesi
F. Delli Carri
Italy
15 F. Delli Carri
L. Ravanelli
Italy
13 L. Ravanelli
P. Dentello Azzi
Substitution
Brazil
7 P. Dentello Azzi
H. Azevedo Júnior
Substitution
Brazil
8 H. Azevedo Júnior
P. Mba Obiang Avomo
Substitution
Equatorial Guinea
14 P. Mba Obiang Avomo
M. Pessina
Italy
32 M. Pessina
P. Ciurria
Substitution
Italy
26 P. Ciurria
A. Petagna
Italy
37 A. Petagna
P. Cutrone
Italy
10 P. Cutrone

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 06, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Nicola Ceravolo
Capacity
14650
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Giovanni Ayroldi
Giuseppe Perrotti
Simone Biffi
Carlo Esposito

Statistics

Possession
CAT
50%
MON
50%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 1
5 Shots 5
35 Dangerous attacks 57
47 Possession 53
1 Corners 5
19 Free kicks 14
4 Yellow Cards 3
1 Red Cards 2

Match Overview

13 Dribble Attempts 11
31 Successful Dribbles Percentage 36
9 Goal Kicks 7
21 Throwins 18
71 Ball Safe 56
8 Goal Attempts 6
4 Substitutions 5
4 Successful Dribbles 4
2 Hit Woodwork 0
0 Penalties 1
1 Injuries 1

Attacking

68 Attacks 81
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

81 Successful Passes Percentage 84
337 Passes 360
54 Long Passes 34
272 Successful Passes 301
10 Key Passes 7
26 Successful Long Passes 10
48 Successful Long Passes Percentage 29

Defensive

53 Duels Won 44
8 Interceptions 5
19 Tackles 20
1 Saves 2

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 33
4 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

15 Fouls 19
3 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Giovanni Ayroldi

Starting XI ▼

22
Mirko Pigliacelli
Mirko Pigliacelli Goalkeeper
4
Matias Antonini
Matias Antonini Defender
23
Nicolò Brighenti
Nicolò Brighenti Defender
84
Tommaso Cassandro
Tommaso Cassandro Defender
10
Jacopo Petriccione
Jacopo Petriccione Midfielder
20
Simone Pontisso
Simone Pontisso Midfielder
21
Marco Pompetti
Marco Pompetti
Midfielder67'
30
Gabriele Alesi
Gabriele Alesi Midfielder
77
Marco D'Alessandro
Marco D'Alessandro Midfielder
62
Ruggero Frosinini
Ruggero Frosinini
Defender18'
8
Filippo Pittarello
Filippo Pittarello Attacker
39
N'Dri Koffi
N'Dri Koffi
Attacker89'
14
Mattia Liberali
Mattia Liberali Attacker
32
Fabio Rispoli
Fabio Rispoli
Midfielder67'
27
Costantino Favasuli
Costantino Favasuli Attacker
Referee : Giovanni Ayroldi

Starting XI ▼

20
Demba Thiam
Demba Thiam Goalkeeper
3
Lorenzo Lucchesi
Lorenzo Lucchesi Defender
44
Andrea Carboni
Andrea Carboni
Defender46'
13
Luca Ravanelli
Luca Ravanelli Defender
15
Filippo Delli Carri
Filippo Delli Carri Defender
7
Paulo Daniel Dentello Azzi
Paulo Daniel Dentello Azzi Midfielder
24
Adam Bakoune
Adam Bakoune
Defender29'
8
Hernani
Hernani Midfielder
28
Andrea Colpani
Andrea Colpani
Midfielder74'
14
Pedro Obiang
Pedro Obiang Midfielder
30
Giuseppe Caso
Giuseppe Caso
Midfielder46'
26
Patrick Ciurria
Patrick Ciurria Midfielder
17
Keita Baldé
Keita Baldé
Attacker52'
32
Matteo Pessina
Matteo Pessina Midfielder
10
Patrick Cutrone
Patrick Cutrone Attacker
37
Andrea Petagna
Andrea Petagna Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
90+6'
Event
Matteo Pessina
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
Event
N'Dri Koffi → Filippo Pittarello
9th Substitution
89'
Event
Matias Antonini
Var
87'
Event
Tommaso Cassandro
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
76'
76'
Event
Keita Baldé
Violent conduct / 2nd Redcard
76'
Event
2nd Yellow/red Card
74'
Event
Andrea Colpani → Hernani
8th Substitution
Event
Nicolò Brighenti
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
69'
Event
Fabio Rispoli → Mattia Liberali
7th Substitution
67'
Event
Marco Pompetti → Simone Pontisso
6th Substitution
67'
52'
Event
Keita Baldé → Patrick Ciurria
5th Substitution
48'
Event
Patrick Cutrone
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
46'
Event
Andrea Carboni → Lorenzo Lucchesi
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Giuseppe Caso → Pedro Obiang
4th Substitution
1ST-HALF
45'
Event
Lorenzo Lucchesi
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Gabriele Alesi
Foul / 1st Redcard
36'
Event
Filippo Pittarello
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
32'
29'
Event
Adam Bakoune → Paulo Daniel Dentello Azzi
2nd Substitution
Event
Ruggero Frosinini → Marco D'Alessandro
1st Substitution
18'
Event
Marco D'Alessandro
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
15'
8'
Event
Patrick Cutrone
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Simone Pontisso
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
6'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Monza exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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