Reggiana vs Pescara Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore Mon, 6 Apr - 1:00 PM
Serie B
Reggiana Reggiana
1 Winner 3
Pescara PES
Full Time Mon, 6 Apr 1:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Mathis Lambourde - 68'
Goal
|
Goal
Giacomo Olzer - 21'
Lorenzo Insigne - 50'
Lorenzo Meazzi - 89'
Alessandro Tripaldelli 90+6' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

The match between Reggiana and Pescara has finished, with Pescara securing a decisive 3-1 victory away from home after taking a 1-0 lead into the half-time break. The final outcome aligned well with pre-match market expectations, which identified Pescara as the stronger team with a 40.9% probability of winning, compared to Reggiana's 31.1% and a 28.1% chance of a draw. Despite being the expected winners, Pescara generated a significant deviation level of 59.1% from these baseline projections, reflecting an unexpectedly dominant overall display. Pescara comfortably dictated the tempo, holding 65% of the possession and restricting the hosts to just 35% of the ball. Although expected goals (xG) data was not available to evaluate underlying chance quality, the teams' attacking output and efficiency shifts were perfectly in line with standard expectations. The match's second-half dynamics were severely impacted by a red card issued to Reggiana. This numerical disadvantage created notable tactical distortion, preventing the home side from mounting a comeback and allowing Pescara to comfortably seal their 3-1 triumph.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Pescara showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
G. Collu
G. Collu
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.11
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.37
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
L. Marinelli
L. Marinelli
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.11
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.37
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
L. Rossi
L. Rossi
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.11
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.37
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
M. Ricci
M. Ricci
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 23.11
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.72
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.37
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
Reggiana P. Bisoli
P. Bisoli
VS
Pescara G. Gorgone
G. Gorgone
0.84
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.96
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Virtus Entella Rank: 47 L
Monza Rank: 65 D
Bari 1908 Rank: 49 L
Venezia Rank: 70 L
Südtirol Rank: 55 L
Spezia Rank: 51 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Empoli Rank: 55 L
Virtus Entella Rank: 48 W
Südtirol Rank: 56 D
Bari 1908 Rank: 51 W
Frosinone Rank: 66 D
Palermo Rank: 64 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Reggiana
31.05%
Draw
28.09%
Away Pescara
40.86%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
45.59
47.99
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Reggiana
Pescara
Power Score
45.59
47.99
League Position
20
18
Global Rank
871
782

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Reggiana — Opponent-weighted form score
Pescara — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Reggiana Pescara

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Reggiana

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Pescara

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Reggiana ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Pescara
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
18.86
21.46
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
21.46
18.86
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Reggiana -0.26 Efficiency Index
vs
Pescara +0.26 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Reggiana
Pescara
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Reggiana ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Pescara
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Reggiana Pescara
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Reggiana Pescara
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Reggiana
Pescara
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Reggiana
vs
Pescara
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Reggiana Pescara
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Reggiana 0.16
Pescara 0.19
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Reggiana Pescara
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Reggiana 0.05
Pescara 0.03
Reggiana
Pescara
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 4 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Reggiana Reggiana Home
4 matches
Pescara PES Away
Match Record
1
Wins
3
0
Draws
0
3
Losses
1
Goals
7
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
7
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-07T00:02:11+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-2-1
Pitch
A. Micai
Italy
1 A. Micai
A. Papetti
Substitution
Italy
2 A. Papetti
F. Vicari
Substitution
Italy
34 F. Vicari
M. Vanelli Lusuardi
Brazil
47 M. Vanelli Lusuardi
L. Libutti
Italy
17 L. Libutti
C. Lima Pontes
Substitution
Brazil
8 C. Lima Pontes
L. Belardinelli
Italy
57 L. Belardinelli
M. Rover
Substitution
Italy
23 M. Rover
M. Portanova
Italy
90 M. Portanova
K. Bozhanaj
Albania
10 K. Bozhanaj
T. Fumagalli
Substitution
Italy
77 T. Fumagalli
I. Saio
Italy
22 I. Saio
G. Letizia
Substitution
Italy
3 G. Letizia
D. Bettella
Italy
6 D. Bettella
G. Altare
Substitution
Italy
15 G. Altare
R. Capellini
Italy
2 R. Capellini
F. Caligara
Substitution
Italy
21 F. Caligara
G. Brugman
Uruguay
8 G. Brugman
L. Valzania
Substitution
Italy
14 L. Valzania
L. Insigne
Substitution
Italy
11 L. Insigne
G. Olzer
Italy
27 G. Olzer
A. Di Nardo
Italy
9 A. Di Nardo

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 06, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore
Capacity
21584
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Giuseppe Collu
Livio Marinelli
Luigi Rossi
Marco Ricci

Statistics

Possession
Reggiana
37%
PES
63%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 3
5 Shots 11
32 Dangerous attacks 59
35 Possession 65
2 Corners 2
21 Free kicks 15
0 Yellow Cards 3
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

7 Dribble Attempts 11
84 Ball Safe 94
18 Throwins 18
13 Goal Kicks 9
5 Goal Attempts 11
0 Hit Woodwork 1
5 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 2

Attacking

83 Attacks 122

Possession

71 Successful Passes Percentage 85
25 Long Passes 26
274 Passes 527
195 Successful Passes 448
7 Key Passes 18

Defensive

3 Saves 2
16 Tackles 12
8 Interceptions 8

Build-up

12 Total Crosses 4

Discipline

2 Offsides 2
15 Fouls 14

Lineup

Referee : Livio Marinelli

Starting XI ▼

1
Alessandro Micai
Alessandro Micai Goalkeeper
2
Andrea Papetti
Andrea Papetti Defender
33
Alessandro Tripaldelli
Alessandro Tripaldelli
Defender46'
17
Lorenzo Libutti
Lorenzo Libutti Defender
34
Francesco Vicari
Francesco Vicari Defender
26
Massimo Bertagnoli
Massimo Bertagnoli
Midfielder79'
47
Mateus Lusuardi
Mateus Lusuardi Defender
8
Charlys
Charlys Midfielder
16
Tobías Reinhart
Tobías Reinhart
Midfielder54'
10
Kleis Bozhanaj
Kleis Bozhanaj Midfielder
23
Matteo Rover
Matteo Rover Midfielder
93
Mathis Lambourde
Mathis Lambourde
Attacker46'
57
Luca Belardinelli
Luca Belardinelli Midfielder
90
Manolo Portanova
Manolo Portanova Midfielder
77
Tommaso Fumagalli
Tommaso Fumagalli Attacker
11
Cedric Gondo
Cedric Gondo
Attacker46'
Referee : Livio Marinelli

Starting XI ▼

22
Ivan Saio
Ivan Saio Goalkeeper
2
Riccardo Capellini
Riccardo Capellini Defender
3
Gaetano Letizia
Gaetano Letizia Defender
95
Gabriele Corbo
Gabriele Corbo
Defender78'
6
Davide Bettella
Davide Bettella Defender
15
Giorgio Altare
Giorgio Altare Defender
26
Andreaw Gravillon
Andreaw Gravillon
Defender79'
8
Gastón Brugman
Gastón Brugman Midfielder
11
Lorenzo Insigne
Lorenzo Insigne Midfielder
31
Flavio Russo
Flavio Russo
Attacker89'
14
Luca Valzania
Luca Valzania Midfielder
7
Lorenzo Meazzi
Lorenzo Meazzi
Attacker79'
21
Fabrizio Caligara
Fabrizio Caligara Midfielder
36
Lorenzo Berardi
Lorenzo Berardi
Midfielder66'
27
Giacomo Olzer
Giacomo Olzer Midfielder
9
Antonio Di Nardo
Antonio Di Nardo Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Alessandro Tripaldelli
1st Redcard
90+6'
90+1'
Event
Andreaw Gravillon
3rd Yellowcard
89'
Event
Lorenzo Meazzi
Field Goal / 4th Goal
89'
Event
Flavio Russo → Lorenzo Insigne
10th Substitution
Event
Massimo Bertagnoli → Francesco Vicari
7th Substitution
79'
79'
Event
Andreaw Gravillon → Giorgio Altare
8th Substitution
79'
Event
Lorenzo Meazzi → Luca Valzania
9th Substitution
78'
Event
Gabriele Corbo → Gaetano Letizia
6th Substitution
Event
Mathis Lambourde
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
68'
68'
Event
Lorenzo Berardi
2nd Yellowcard
66'
Event
Lorenzo Berardi → Fabrizio Caligara
5th Substitution
Event
Kleis Bozhanaj
Penalty Cancelled
64'
63'
Event
Lorenzo Insigne
1st Yellowcard
Event
Tobías Reinhart → Charlys
4th Substitution
54'
50'
Event
Lorenzo Insigne
Field Goal / 2nd Goal
Event
Mathis Lambourde → Matteo Rover
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Cedric Gondo → Tommaso Fumagalli
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Alessandro Tripaldelli → Andrea Papetti
3rd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
21'
Event
Giacomo Olzer
Free Kick / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Pescara exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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