Odense BK vs Fredericia Prediction, Preview and Stats

Denmark flag 2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark
Nature Energy Park Mon, 6 Apr - 2:00 PM
Superliga
Odense BK ODE
1 Winner 0
Fredericia Fredericia
Full Time Mon, 6 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 3 Relegation Round
Jona Niemiec - 90+3'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match has finished with Odense BK securing a 1-0 victory over Fredericia. The full-time result ultimately aligned with the pre-match market, which heavily favored the hosts with a 59.4% win probability, compared to Fredericia's 19.5% chance and a 21.1% likelihood of a draw. Despite this expected outcome, Odense BK experienced a significant deviation in their match dynamics to finally claim the win. Following a scoreless first half where the teams remained evenly matched at the break, Odense BK asserted their dominance through sustained ball control. The home side commanded 67% of the possession, leaving Fredericia chasing the game with just 33% of the ball. The match was played cleanly without any red cards, meaning disciplinary events did not impact the tactical flow of either side. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, so no direct comparison can be made between the final scoreline and the underlying chance creation. Nevertheless, Odense BK's overall finishing efficiency was entirely in line with expectations. This allowed the pre-match favorites to successfully translate their heavy possession advantage into a narrow, market-aligned victory.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Odense BK showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Cortzen
D. Cortzen
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.5
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.5
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.04
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
J. Bøgelund
J. Bøgelund
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.5
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.5
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.04
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
A. Uslu
A. Uslu
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.5
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.5
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.04
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
L. Hummelgaard
L. Hummelgaard
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.5
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.5
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.04
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Odense BK A. Zorniger
A. Zorniger
VS
Fredericia M. Hansen
M. Hansen
1.46
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.23
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Vejle Boldklub Rank: 50 D
FC København Rank: 68 W
Sønderjyske Fodbold Rank: 62 L
FC København Rank: 68 D
FC Midtjylland Rank: 79 L
AGF Rank: 71 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC København Rank: 67 W
Randers FC Rank: 61 L
Silkeborg IF Rank: 57 W
Randers FC Rank: 60 W
AGF Rank: 71 D
Vejle Boldklub Rank: 51 W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Odense BK
59.36%
Draw
21.12%
Away Fredericia
19.52%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
48.45
44.49
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Odense BK
Fredericia
Power Score
48.45
44.49
League Position
8
10
Global Rank
536
689

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Odense BK — Opponent-weighted form score
Fredericia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Odense BK Fredericia

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Odense BK

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Fredericia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Odense BK ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Fredericia
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.81
36.67
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
36.67
28.81
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Odense BK -0.78 Efficiency Index
vs
Fredericia +0.78 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Odense BK
Fredericia
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Odense BK ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Fredericia
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Odense BK Fredericia
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Odense BK Fredericia
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Odense BK
Fredericia
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Odense BK
vs
Fredericia
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Odense BK Fredericia
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Odense BK 0.24
Fredericia 0.50
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Odense BK Fredericia
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Odense BK 0.00
Fredericia 0.02
Odense BK
Fredericia
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Odense BK ODE Home
2 matches
Fredericia Fredericia Away
Match Record
2
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
2
Goals
6
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
6
+3
Goal Difference
-3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-07T00:03:22+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
V. Røsholt Myhra
Norway
16 V. Røsholt Myhra
L. Owusu
Netherlands
20 L. Owusu
N. Bürgy
Switzerland
5 N. Bürgy
J. Berthel Askou Harvey
Substitution
Denmark
13 J. Berthel Askou Harvey
M. McCoy
Denmark
15 M. McCoy
M. Ejdum
Denmark
18 M. Ejdum
R. Falk Jensen
Denmark
8 R. Falk Jensen
I. Ouédraogo
Burkina Faso
22 I. Ouédraogo
A. Suhonen
Substitution
Finland
10 A. Suhonen
N. Ganaus
Substitution
Germany
17 N. Ganaus
J. Grot
Substitution
Netherlands
31 J. Grot
V. Thorsen
Denmark
90 V. Thorsen
J. Jessen
Denmark
8 J. Jessen
F. Thykær Rieper
Denmark
5 F. Thykær Rieper
A. Nygaard Andersen
Denmark
3 A. Nygaard Andersen
A. Dahl
Substitution
Denmark
14 A. Dahl
F. Winther
Denmark
6 F. Winther
D. Kristjánsson
Substitution
Iceland
17 D. Kristjánsson
G. Marcussen
Substitution
Denmark
7 G. Marcussen
S. Østergaard Grandjean Johannesen
Substitution
Denmark
16 S. Østergaard Grandjean Johannesen
M. Opondo
Substitution
Uganda
11 M. Opondo
F. Ubi Etim
Nigeria
25 F. Ubi Etim

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 06, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark · Round 3 · Relegation Round
Stadium
Nature Energy Park
Capacity
15790
Attendance
9105
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Daniel Cortzen
Jonas Bøgelund
Aydin Uslu
Lars Hummelgaard

Statistics

Possession
ODE
63%
Fredericia
37%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 2
12 Shots 8
66 Dangerous attacks 22
67 Possession 33
8 Corners 6
13 Free kicks 7
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

44 Successful Dribbles Percentage 9
8 Goal Kicks 16
17 Throwins 24
16 Dribble Attempts 11
75 Ball Safe 71
10 Goal Attempts 7
1 Hit Woodwork 0
7 Successful Dribbles 1
5 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 0
1 Injuries 0

Attacking

140 Attacks 85
1 Counter Attacks 5
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

651 Passes 326
566 Successful Passes 248
64 Long Passes 54
13 Key Passes 8
87 Successful Passes Percentage 76
31 Successful Long Passes 23
48 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43

Defensive

11 Interceptions 18
42 Duels Won 37
16 Tackles 19
1 Saves 1

Build-up

29 Total Crosses 15
11 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

7 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Aydin Uslu

Starting XI ▼

16
Viljar Myhra
Viljar Myhra Goalkeeper
5
Nicolas Bürgy
Nicolas Bürgy Defender
13
Julius Berthel Askou
Julius Berthel Askou Defender
24
Yaya Bojang
Yaya Bojang
Defender68'
15
Marcus McCoy
Marcus McCoy Defender
20
Leeroy Owusu
Leeroy Owusu Defender
8
Rasmus Falk
Rasmus Falk Midfielder
10
Anssi Suhonen
Anssi Suhonen Midfielder
7
Fiete Arp
Fiete Arp
Attacker67'
18
Max Ejdum
Max Ejdum Midfielder
22
Ismahila Ouédraogo
Ismahila Ouédraogo Midfielder
17
Noah Ganaus
Noah Ganaus Attacker
23
William Martin
William Martin
Midfielder82'
31
Jay-Roy Grot
Jay-Roy Grot Attacker
11
Jona Niemiec
Jona Niemiec
Attacker68'
Referee : Aydin Uslu

Starting XI ▼

90
Valdemar Birksø Thorsen
Valdemar Birksø Thorsen Goalkeeper
3
Adam Nygaard Andersen
Adam Nygaard Andersen Defender
5
Frederik Thykær Rieper
Frederik Thykær Rieper Defender
8
Jakob Jessen
Jakob Jessen Defender
14
Anders Dahl
Anders Dahl Defender
18
Andreas Pyndt
Andreas Pyndt
Midfielder77'
6
Felix Winther
Felix Winther Midfielder
7
Gustav Ølsted Marcussen
Gustav Ølsted Marcussen Midfielder
19
Eskild Munk Dall
Eskild Munk Dall
Attacker90'
11
Moses Opondo
Moses Opondo Midfielder
29
Elias Hansborg-Sørensen
Elias Hansborg-Sørensen
Attacker57'
16
Sofus Johannesen
Sofus Johannesen Midfielder
97
Oscar Buch
Oscar Buch
Attacker57'
17
Daníel Freyr Kristjánsson
Daníel Freyr Kristjánsson Midfielder
4
Jeppe Kudsk
Jeppe Kudsk
Defender77'
25
Etim
Etim Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Bjørn Paulsen → Fiete Arp
10th Substitution
90+4'
Event
Jona Niemiec
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
90+3'
90'
Event
Eskild Munk Dall → Gustav Ølsted Marcussen
9th Substitution
86'
Event
Adam Nygaard Andersen
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
William Martin → Noah Ganaus
8th Substitution
82'
77'
Event
Jeppe Kudsk → Daníel Freyr Kristjánsson
6th Substitution
77'
Event
Andreas Pyndt → Anders Dahl
7th Substitution
Event
Yaya Bojang → Julius Berthel Askou
4th Substitution
68'
Event
Jona Niemiec → Jay-Roy Grot
5th Substitution
68'
Event
Fiete Arp → Anssi Suhonen
3rd Substitution
67'
57'
Event
Elias Hansborg-Sørensen → Moses Opondo
2nd Substitution
57'
Event
Oscar Buch → Sofus Johannesen
1st Substitution
51'
Event
Daníel Freyr Kristjánsson
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Nicolas Bürgy
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
18'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Odense BK exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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