Preston North End vs Queens Park Rangers Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
Deepdale Mon, 6 Apr - 2:00 PM
Championship
Preston North End PNE
1 – 1
Queens Park Rangers QPR
Full Time Mon, 6 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 41 Regular Season
Brad Potts - 46'
Goal
|
Goal
Thierry Small - 82' (Own Goal)

CONTEXT

The match between Preston North End and Queens Park Rangers has finished, ending in a tightly contested 1-1 draw. Following a scoreless first half where both sides were completely even at the break, the second half saw each team finally find the back of the net. Play was heavily balanced throughout the afternoon, reflected in the nearly identical possession numbers: Preston held a narrow 51 percent of the ball compared to QPR's 49 percent. Expected goals (xG) metrics were not available to assess underlying chance quality. Pre-match market expectations gave Preston North End a 39.2 percent chance of victory, with a Queens Park Rangers win at 33.3 percent and a draw at 27.5 percent. With QPR identified as the stronger team, the eventual draw represented a significant deviation from expected outcomes, notably impacting Queens Park Rangers. Consequently, the final result ultimately failed to align with the pre-match market forecast. Despite this market misalignment, the match's overall efficiency shift remained strictly in line with normal expectations. Furthermore, the fixture was played without major disciplinary incidents, as no red cards were issued to either side to artificially alter the natural flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Queens Park Rangers showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
T. Kirk
T. Kirk
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.96
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.24
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
J. Bickerdike
J. Bickerdike
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.96
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.24
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
B. Speedie
B. Speedie
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.96
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.24
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
S. Hudson
S. Hudson
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17.96
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.24
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
Preston North End P. Heckingbottom
P. Heckingbottom
VS
Queens Park Rangers J. Stéphan
J. Stéphan
1.19
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.32
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Leicester City Rank: 67 D
Stoke City Rank: 67 W
Norwich City Rank: 70 L
Coventry City Rank: 78 L
Oxford United Rank: 65 L
Millwall Rank: 74 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Watford Rank: 68 W
Portsmouth Rank: 66 W
Leicester City Rank: 68 W
Birmingham City Rank: 69 L
Middlesbrough Rank: 73 L
Sheffield United Rank: 70 L
11
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
11 - 10 - 12
12

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Preston North End
39.21%
Draw
27.48%
Away Queens Park Rangers
33.3%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
66.1
67.48
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Preston North End
Queens Park Rangers
Power Score
66.1
67.48
League Position
14
12
Global Rank
285
247

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Preston North End — Opponent-weighted form score
Queens Park Rangers — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Preston North End Queens Park Rangers

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Preston North End

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Queens Park Rangers

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Preston North End ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Queens Park Rangers
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
19.61
40.61
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
40.61
19.61
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Preston North End -2.07 Efficiency Index
vs
Queens Park Rangers +2.07 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Preston North End
Queens Park Rangers
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Preston North End ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Queens Park Rangers
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Preston North End Queens Park Rangers
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Preston North End Queens Park Rangers
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Preston North End
Queens Park Rangers
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Preston North End
vs
Queens Park Rangers
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Preston North End Queens Park Rangers
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Preston North End 0.20
Queens Park Rangers 0.47
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Preston North End Queens Park Rangers
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Preston North End 0.03
Queens Park Rangers 0.03
Preston North End
Queens Park Rangers
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 33 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Preston North End PNE Home
33 matches
Queens Park Rangers QPR Away
Match Record
11
Wins
12
10
Draws
10
12
Losses
11
Goals
39
Goals Scored
41
41
Goals Conceded
39
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-07T00:03:06+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-3-2
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
D. Iversen
Denmark
1 D. Iversen
O. Offiah
Substitution
England
42 O. Offiah
J. Storey
England
14 J. Storey
L. Gibson
England
19 L. Gibson
A. Hughes
Wales
16 A. Hughes
A. Vukčević
Substitution
Montenegro
3 A. Vukčević
B. Potts
Substitution
England
44 B. Potts
B. Whiteman
England
4 B. Whiteman
A. Devine
England
21 A. Devine
M. Osmajić
Montenegro
28 M. Osmajić
L. Dobbin
Substitution
England
17 L. Dobbin
J. Walsh
England
13 J. Walsh
R. Norrington-Davies
Wales
18 R. Norrington-Davies
R. Edwards
England
37 R. Edwards
J. Dunne
Republic of Ireland
3 J. Dunne
A. Mbengue
Substitution
Senegal
27 A. Mbengue
P. Smyth
Substitution
Northern Ireland
11 P. Smyth
J. Varane
Substitution
France
40 J. Varane
K. Morgan
England
21 K. Morgan
H. Vale
England
20 H. Vale
R. Kone
22 R. Kone
R. Kolli
Substitution
Algeria
26 R. Kolli

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 06, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 41 · Regular Season
Stadium
Deepdale
Capacity
23408
Attendance
15046
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Thomas Kirk
Johnathon Bickerdike
Ben Speedie
Shaun Hudson

Statistics

Possession
PNE
50%
QPR
50%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
0 Big Chances Created 2
8 Shots 18
40 Dangerous attacks 38
51 Possession 49
2 Corners 6
8 Free kicks 4
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

25 Throwins 19
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
12 Successful Headers 19
88 Ball Safe 87
4 Dribble Attempts 3
4 Successful Dribbles 3
8 Goal Kicks 8
0 Hit Woodwork 1
5 Goal Attempts 11
1 Injuries 2
4 Substitutions 4
1 Assists 0

Attacking

100 Attacks 93

Possession

28 Long Passes 35
81 Successful Passes Percentage 81
420 Passes 398
7 Key Passes 13
341 Successful Passes 325

Defensive

10 Tackles 8
33 Duels Won 34
8 Interceptions 2
5 Saves 1

Build-up

14 Total Crosses 18

Discipline

4 Fouls 8
4 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Thomas Kirk

Starting XI ▼

1
Daniel Iversen
Daniel Iversen Goalkeeper
3
Andrija Vukcevic
Andrija Vukcevic Defender
26
Thierry Small
Thierry Small
Defender66'
14
Jordan Storey
Jordan Storey Defender
16
Andrew Hughes
Andrew Hughes Defender
19
Lewis Gibson
Lewis Gibson Defender
42
Odeluga Offiah
Odeluga Offiah Defender
2
Pol Valentín
Pol Valentín
Defender46'
4
Ben Whiteman
Ben Whiteman Midfielder
21
Alfie Devine
Alfie Devine Midfielder
44
Brad Potts
Brad Potts Midfielder
23
Andrew Moran
Andrew Moran
Midfielder66'
17
Lewis Dobbin
Lewis Dobbin Attacker
9
Daniel Jebbison
Daniel Jebbison
Attacker77'
28
Milutin Osmajic
Milutin Osmajic Attacker
Referee : Thomas Kirk

Starting XI ▼

13
Joe Walsh
Joe Walsh Goalkeeper
3
Jimmy Dunne
Jimmy Dunne Defender
18
Rhys Norrington-Davies
Rhys Norrington-Davies Defender
27
Amadou Salif Mbengue
Amadou Salif Mbengue Defender
6
Jake Clarke-Salter
Jake Clarke-Salter
Defender85'
37
Ronnie Edwards
Ronnie Edwards Defender
11
Paul Patrick Smyth
Paul Patrick Smyth Midfielder
17
Kwame Poku
Kwame Poku
Midfielder67'
20
Harvey Vale
Harvey Vale Midfielder
21
Kieran Morgan
Kieran Morgan Midfielder
40
Jonathan Varane
Jonathan Varane Midfielder
15
Isaac Hayden
Isaac Hayden
Midfielder72'
22
Richard Kone
Richard Kone Attacker
26
Rayan Kolli
Rayan Kolli Attacker
23
Daniel Bennie
Daniel Bennie
Attacker72'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Jake Clarke-Salter
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
85'
Event
Jake Clarke-Salter → Amadou Salif Mbengue
8th Substitution
82'
Event
Thierry Small
Right foot shot / 1st Own Goal
Event
Daniel Jebbison → Lewis Dobbin
7th Substitution
77'
Event
Lewis Gibson
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
76'
72'
Event
Isaac Hayden → Jonathan Varane
6th Substitution
72'
Event
Daniel Bennie → Rayan Kolli
5th Substitution
67'
Event
Kwame Poku → Paul Patrick Smyth
4th Substitution
Event
Thierry Small → Andrija Vukcevic
3rd Substitution
66'
Event
Andrew Moran → Brad Potts
2nd Substitution
66'
65'
Event
Kieran Morgan
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Pol Valentín → Odeluga Offiah
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Brad Potts
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
46'
1ST-HALF
13'
Event
Jonathan Varane
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Foul by Daniel Bennie of Queens Park Rangers.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jake Clarke-Salter of Queens Park Rangers receives a yellow card.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 7 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Harvey Vale of Queens Park Rangers.
90
Attempt Attempt
Kieran Morgan's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
90
Update Update
Daniel Iversen of Preston North End won a free kick in defense.
90
Update Update
Pol Valentín of Preston North End won a free kick in defense.
90
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Bennie of Queens Park Rangers makes an attacking attempt, shooting with his right foot from the left side of the box. The shot is saved by goalkeeper Daniel Iversen of Preston North End, who is positioned in the center of the goal. The assist comes from Richard Kone.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Queens Park Rangers after a concession by Jordan Storey.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with the match finishing 1-1 between Preston North End and Queens Park Rangers.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Queens Park Rangers after a concession by Jordan Storey.
87
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Kwame Poku from Queens Park Rangers shot with his left foot from outside the box, missing to the left. Assist by Ronnie Edwards.
86
Attempt Attempt
Harvey Vale's left-footed shot from the left side of the box for Queens Park Rangers is blocked.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Queens Park Rangers: Jake Clarke-Salter replaces Amadou Mbengue.
84
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Bennie of Queens Park Rangers attempts a header from the center of the box, but it's saved in the top center of the goal by Daniel Iversen of Preston North End. The assist came from Harvey Vale, who provided the cross.
84
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Queens Park Rangers after a concession by Daniel Iversen.
82
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Own goal by Thierry Small for Preston North End. The match is now 1-1 against Queens Park Rangers.
80
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Daniel Bennie of Queens Park Rangers has a right-footed shot from the right side of the box, but it's saved in the left corner by Daniel Iversen of Preston North End. The assist came from Amadou Mbengue's cross.
79
Attempt Attempt
Richard Kone of Queens Park Rangers attempts an attack with a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved by goalkeeper Daniel Iversen of Preston North End, who is positioned in the center of the goal. The assist was provided by Daniel Bennie.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Preston North End: Daniel Jebbison replaces Lewis Dobbin.
76
Update Update
Foul committed by Lewis Gibson of Preston North End.
76
Update Update
Daniel Bennie of Queens Park Rangers won a free kick in an attacking position.
76
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Lewis Gibson of Preston North End receives a yellow card for a foul.
74
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Queens Park Rangers after Andrew Moran concedes.
74
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Daniel Bennie of Queens Park Rangers heads the ball from the right side of the six-yard box.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Queens Park Rangers: Daniel Bennie replaces Rayan Kolli.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Queens Park Rangers: Isaac Hayden replaces Jonathan Varane.
71
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Richard Kone of Queens Park Rangers.
70
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Queens Park Rangers after Lewis Gibson concedes.
68
Update Update
Offside called against Preston North End. Milutin Osmajic is offside.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Queens Park Rangers: Kwame Poku replaces Paul Smyth.
67
Attempt Attempt
Alfie Devine from Preston North End had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box but missing to the left.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Preston North End: Thierry Small replaces Andrija Vukcevic.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Preston North End: Andrew Moran replaces Brad Potts.
65
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kieran Morgan of Queens Park Rangers receives a yellow card for a foul.
65
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Andrija Vukcevic from Preston North End.
64
Update Update
Alfie Devine from Preston North End won a free kick in an attacking position.
64
Update Update
Kieran Morgan from Queens Park Rangers committed a foul.
63
Update Update
Alfie Devine from Preston North End won a free kick on the left wing.
62
Update Update
Kieran Morgan from Queens Park Rangers misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, but it goes high and wide to the right. Harvey Vale provided the assist.
60
Attempt Attempt
Rayan Kolli from Queens Park Rangers had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, but it went just left of the goal. The assist came from Jimmy Dunne.
59
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Harvey Vale of Queens Park Rangers shoots with his left foot from outside the box, but it goes high.
58
Update Update
Offside called against Preston North End. Brad Potts is offside.
57
Update Update
Offside called against Queens Park Rangers. Richard Kone is offside.
56
Update Update
Rayan Kolli of Queens Park Rangers is flagged for offside.
54
Attempt Attempt
Harvey Vale's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked.
50
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Queens Park Rangers after Andrija Vukcevic concedes.
50
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Queens Park Rangers after a concession by Andrija Vukcevic.
46
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Preston North End lead 1-0 against Queens Park Rangers. Brad Potts scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the left corner, assisted by Alfie Devine after a fast break.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 2 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
Milutin Osmajic of Preston North End won a free kick on the left wing.
45
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Amadou Mbengue of Queens Park Rangers takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved in the right corner by Daniel Iversen of Preston North End.
45
Attempt Attempt
Harvey Vale's shot from the right side of the box is blocked. The assist came from Rhys Norrington-Davies, who provided the cross.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Jimmy Dunne of Queens Park Rangers.
45
Update Update
The second half starts with the match score at 0-0 between Preston North End and Queens Park Rangers.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Preston North End and Queens Park Rangers drawing 0-0.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Preston North End: Pol Valentín replaces Odeluga Offiah.
44
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Benjamin Whiteman from Preston North End shoots with his right foot from outside the box, but it goes high. Assist by Alfie Devine.
42
Attempt Attempt
Alfie Devine's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist came from Benjamin Whiteman.
34
Attempt Attempt
Jonathan Varane from Queens Park Rangers had a missed chance, shooting with his left foot from outside the box. The assist came from Rayan Kolli.
33
Update Update
Fouled by Milutin Osmajic of Preston North End.
33
Update Update
Jimmy Dunne of Queens Park Rangers won a free kick in defense.
29
Update Update
Foul committed by Paul Smyth of Queens Park Rangers.
29
Update Update
Alfie Devine from Preston North End won a free kick in defense.
26
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Paul Smyth from Queens Park Rangers shot with his left foot from the center of the box.
24
Attempt Attempt
Kieran Morgan's shot for Queens Park Rangers from outside the box is blocked. Rayan Kolli provided the assist.
22
Update Update
Handball by Rhys Norrington-Davies of Queens Park Rangers.
19
Update Update
Jordan Storey's header from the center of the box is blocked.
19
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Lewis Dobbin from Preston North End takes a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it is saved by goalkeeper Joe Walsh of Queens Park Rangers. The assist comes from Milutin Osmajic.
19
Corner Corner
Preston North End win a corner after Rhys Norrington-Davies concedes.
18
Attempt Attempt
Alfie Devine's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Lewis Dobbin provided the assist.
18
Corner Corner
Preston North End win a corner after Kieran Morgan concedes.
15
Update Update
Offside called against Preston North End. Milutin Osmajic is in an offside position.
13
Update Update
Lewis Dobbin from Preston North End won a free kick on the right wing.
13
Update Update
Foul committed by Jonathan Varane against Queens Park Rangers.
13
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jonathan Varane of Queens Park Rangers receives a yellow card for a foul.
10
Update Update
Rayan Kolli of Queens Park Rangers won a free kick on the left wing.
10
Update Update
Foul committed by Benjamin Whiteman of Preston North End.
6
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Amadou Mbengue of Queens Park Rangers.
4
Update Update
Amadou Mbengue of Queens Park Rangers won a free kick in defense.
4
Update Update
Andrija Vukcevic fouled a player from Preston North End.
2
Update Update
Offside called against Preston North End. Andrija Vukcevic is offside.
1
Attempt Attempt
Milutin Osmajic's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. The assist came from Benjamin Whiteman's cross.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Queens Park Rangers exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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