GAIS vs Djurgården Prediction, Preview and Stats

Sweden flag 2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden
Gamla Ullevi Mon, 6 Apr - 2:30 PM
Allsvenskan
GAIS GAIS
0 Winner 1
Djurgården DJU
Full Time Mon, 6 Apr 2:30 PM
Round 1 Regular Season
|
Goal
Patric Åslund - 65'

CONTEXT

The match is officially finished, with Djurgården securing a narrow 1-0 victory away against GAIS. After a tightly contested first half left the teams even at 0-0 at the break, the visitors found the decisive breakthrough in the second period. GAIS controlled a slight majority of the ball with 52% possession compared to Djurgården's 48%, but the home side was unable to translate that advantage into an equalizer. The away victory represented a significant deviation from pre-match expectations. GAIS entered the fixture as the market favorites with a 43.1% win probability, while Djurgården had only a 28.2% chance of claiming all three points, alongside a 28.6% probability of a draw. Consequently, Djurgården's win meant the final outcome was not aligned with the pre-match market predictions. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to determine if the outcome was consistent with the underlying offensive metrics. However, the overall efficiency shift was in line with typical match performances. Furthermore, the game concluded cleanly with zero red cards issued to either team, ensuring a straightforward 11-on-11 battle where Djurgården ultimately defied the initial betting odds.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Djurgården showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Al Hakim

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Culum

1st Assistant

F. Klyver

2nd Assistant

A. Bashir

4th Official

GAIS F. Holmberg
F. Holmberg
VS
Djurgården J. Honkavaara
J. Honkavaara
1.75
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.75
1.75 i
Last 6 Opponents
Malmö FF Rank: 62 L
Öster Rank: 42 D
Brommapojkarna Rank: 48 W
Djurgården Rank: 65 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.75 i
Last 6 Opponents
Öster Rank: 42 W
IFK Göteborg Rank: 57 D
Värnamo Rank: 43 W
GAIS Rank: 59 L
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 8 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home GAIS
43.13%
Draw
28.64%
Away Djurgården
28.22%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
58.81
65.07
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
GAIS
Djurgården
Power Score
58.81
65.07
League Position
12
6
Global Rank
501
313

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
GAIS — Opponent-weighted form score
Djurgården — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) GAIS Djurgården

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

GAIS

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Djurgården

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

GAIS ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Djurgården
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
26.35
30.52
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
30.52
26.35
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
GAIS -0.43 Efficiency Index
vs
Djurgården +0.43 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
GAIS
Djurgården
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

GAIS ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Djurgården
Created Set-piece attacking threat
GAIS Djurgården
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
GAIS Djurgården
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
GAIS
Djurgården
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
GAIS
vs
Djurgården
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
GAIS Djurgården
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
GAIS 0.20
Djurgården 0.23
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
GAIS Djurgården
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
GAIS 0.02
Djurgården 0.00
GAIS
Djurgården
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 18 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

GAIS GAIS Home
18 matches
Djurgården DJU Away
Match Record
6
Wins
4
8
Draws
8
4
Losses
6
Goals
20
Goals Scored
17
17
Goals Conceded
20
+3
Goal Difference
-3

Data last updated: 2026-04-07T00:03:41+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
K. Sims
New Zealand
13 K. Sims
A. Wängberg
Sweden
6 A. Wängberg
R. Frej
Sweden
12 R. Frej
O. Ågren
Sweden
4 O. Ågren
M. de Brienne
Substitution
Canada
2 M. de Brienne
W. Milovanovic
Substitution
Sweden
8 W. Milovanovic
J. Åberg
Substitution
Sweden
7 J. Åberg
K. Holmén
Sweden
18 K. Holmén
M. Andersson
Substitution
Sweden
16 M. Andersson
S. Salter
Substitution
Canada
20 S. Salter
R. Niklasson Johansson
Sweden
11 R. Niklasson Johansson
Pitch
J. Rinne
Sweden
35 J. Rinne
M. Larsson
Sweden
24 M. Larsson
J. Une-Larsson
Sweden
4 J. Une-Larsson
M. Tenho
Finland
5 M. Tenho
P. Johansson
Sweden
2 P. Johansson
M. Siltanen
Finland
20 M. Siltanen
H. Finndell
Substitution
Sweden
14 H. Finndell
O. Fallenius
Substitution
Sweden
15 O. Fallenius
B. Hegland
Substitution
Norway
16 B. Hegland
P. Åslund
Substitution
Sweden
8 P. Åslund
K. Lien
Substitution
Norway
9 K. Lien

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 06, 2026, 02:30 PM
Competition :
2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden · Round 1 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Gamla Ullevi
Capacity :
18416
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Mohammed Al Hakim
Mehmet Culum
Fredrik Klyver
Abdinaser Bashir

Statistics

Possession
GAIS
52%
DJU
48%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 2
9 Shots 8
54 Dangerous attacks 53
52 Possession 48
2 Corners 10
7 Free kicks 14
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

40 Ball Safe 56
3 Goal Attempts 5
17 Dribble Attempts 19
65 Successful Dribbles Percentage 37
6 Goal Kicks 8
11 Successful Dribbles 7
21 Throwins 25
5 Substitutions 5
0 Assists 1
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

3 Big Chances Missed 1
118 Attacks 107

Possession

23 Successful Long Passes 25
42 Successful Long Passes Percentage 36
5 Key Passes 8
55 Long Passes 70
80 Successful Passes Percentage 74
372 Successful Passes 321
465 Passes 431

Defensive

4 Saves 6
25 Tackles 13
54 Duels Won 47
17 Interceptions 13

Build-up

5 Accurate Crosses 3
20 Total Crosses 18

Discipline

5 Offsides 2
14 Fouls 7

Lineup

Referee : Mohammed Al Hakim

Starting XI ▼

13
Kees Sims
Kees Sims Goalkeeper
2
Matteo de Brienne
Matteo de Brienne Defender
5
Robin Wendin Thomasson
Robin Wendin Thomasson
Defender76'
4
Oskar Ågren
Oskar Ågren Defender
6
August Wängberg
August Wängberg Defender
12
Robin Frej
Robin Frej Defender
7
Joackim Åberg
Joackim Åberg Midfielder
10
Henry Sletsjøe
Henry Sletsjøe
Midfielder63'
8
William Milovanovic
William Milovanovic Midfielder
25
Jonas Lindberg
Jonas Lindberg
Midfielder76'
18
Kevin Holmén
Kevin Holmén Midfielder
11
Rasmus Patrik Niklasson Johansson
Rasmus Patrik Niklasson Johansson Attacker
16
M. Andersson
M. Andersson Attacker
32
Oscar Pettersson
Oscar Pettersson
Attacker56'
20
S. Salter
S. Salter Attacker
21
S. Ekong
S. Ekong
Attacker77'
Referee : Mohammed Al Hakim

Starting XI ▼

35
Jacob Rinne
Jacob Rinne Goalkeeper
2
Piotr Johansson
Piotr Johansson Defender
4
Jacob Une Larsson
Jacob Une Larsson Defender
5
Miro Tenho
Miro Tenho Defender
24
Max Larsson
Max Larsson Defender
8
Patric Åslund
Patric Åslund Midfielder
22
Joel Asoro
Joel Asoro
Attacker76'
14
Hampus Finndell
Hampus Finndell Midfielder
3
Leon Hien
Leon Hien
Attacker84'
15
Oskar Fallenius
Oskar Fallenius Midfielder
19
Jeppe Okkels
Jeppe Okkels
Attacker70'
16
B. Hegland
B. Hegland Midfielder
17
Ahmed Saeed
Ahmed Saeed
Attacker76'
20
Matias Siltanen
Matias Siltanen Midfielder
9
Kristian Strømland Lien
Kristian Strømland Lien Attacker
6
P. Langhoff
P. Langhoff
Midfielder84'

Events

2ND-HALF
84'
Event
P. Langhoff → Kristian Strømland Lien
10th Substitution
84'
Event
Leon Hien → Hampus Finndell
9th Substitution
Event
S. Ekong → S. Salter
8th Substitution
77'
Event
Goal Disallowed
76'
Event
Robin Wendin Thomasson → Matteo de Brienne
7th Substitution
76'
Event
Jonas Lindberg → William Milovanovic
5th Substitution
76'
76'
Event
Joel Asoro → Patric Åslund
4th Substitution
76'
Event
Ahmed Saeed → B. Hegland
6th Substitution
70'
Event
Jeppe Okkels → Oskar Fallenius
3rd Substitution
65'
Event
Patric Åslund
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Henry Sletsjøe → Joackim Åberg
2nd Substitution
63'
Event
Kevin Holmén
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
59'
Event
Oscar Pettersson → M. Andersson
1st Substitution
56'
1ST-HALF
40'
Event
Matias Siltanen
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
William Milovanovic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
28'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Djurgården exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

GAIS vs Djurgården preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.