Molde vs Lillestrøm Prediction, Preview and Stats

Norway flag 2026 Eliteserien, Norway
Aker Stadion Mon, 6 Apr - 3:00 PM
Eliteserien
Molde Molde
0 Winner 1
Lillestrøm Lillestrøm
Full Time Mon, 6 Apr 3:00 PM
Round 3 Regular Season
|
Goal
Thomas Lehne Olsen - 49'

CONTEXT

The match between Molde and Lillestrøm has finished, with Lillestrøm securing a 1-0 away victory. After a tightly contested first half left the teams even at 0-0 at the break, the visitors found the decisive breakthrough in the second half. This outcome represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations. Molde entered the fixture as the stronger side and the favorites, holding a 43.7% probability of winning compared to Lillestrøm's 31.6% chance, with a draw set at 24.7%. Consequently, the final result was not aligned with the pre-match market, as Lillestrøm defied the odds to take home the win. Despite the loss, Molde heavily dominated the ball with 61% possession, leaving Lillestrøm to operate with just 39%. Because expected goals (xG) data is unavailable for this fixture, it cannot be determined if the outcome was consistent with the underlying chance quality. However, the overall efficiency shift for the game was in line with expectations. Finally, the match concluded without any red cards being issued, meaning neither side was forced to adjust to a numerical disadvantage on the pitch.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Lillestrøm showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
J. Valstadsve
J. Valstadsve
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.72
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.97
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
J. Alnes Dyb
J. Alnes Dyb
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.72
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.97
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
T. Halsen
T. Halsen
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.72
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.97
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
S. Sinnes
S. Sinnes
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.72
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.97
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Molde M. Falk
M. Falk
VS
Lillestrøm H. Ødegaard
H. Ødegaard
1.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
3
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Viking Rank: 75 L
Rosenborg Rank: 63 W
Sarpsborg 08 Rank: 61 L
Brann Rank: 68 W
Haugesund Rank: 42 W
Rosenborg Rank: 61 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Aalesund Rank: 41 W
19
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
19 - 10 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Molde
43.7%
Draw
24.72%
Away Lillestrøm
31.58%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.15
46.79
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Molde
Lillestrøm
Power Score
63.15
46.79
League Position
9
3
Global Rank
370
677

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Molde — Opponent-weighted form score
Lillestrøm — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Molde Lillestrøm

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Molde

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Lillestrøm

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Molde ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lillestrøm
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
25.57
45.90
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
45.90
25.57
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Molde -2.11 Efficiency Index
vs
Lillestrøm +2.11 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Molde
Lillestrøm
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Molde ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lillestrøm
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Molde Lillestrøm
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Molde Lillestrøm
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Molde
Lillestrøm
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Molde
vs
Lillestrøm
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Molde Lillestrøm
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Molde 0.17
Lillestrøm 0.42
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Molde Lillestrøm
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Molde 0.03
Lillestrøm 0.00
Molde
Lillestrøm
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 36 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Molde Molde Home
36 matches
Lillestrøm Lillestrøm Away
Match Record
19
Wins
7
10
Draws
10
7
Losses
19
Goals
64
Goals Scored
42
42
Goals Conceded
64
+22
Goal Difference
-22
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-07T00:04:01+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
M. Juhl Kikkenborg
Denmark
1 M. Juhl Kikkenborg
H. Østervold Stenevik
Norway
18 H. Østervold Stenevik
S. Hansen
4 S. Hansen
B. Risa
Norway
33 B. Risa
M. Linnes
Substitution
Norway
25 M. Linnes
E. Hestad
Substitution
Norway
5 E. Hestad
V. Hoff
Norway
15 V. Hoff
J. Christensen
Substitution
Denmark
14 J. Christensen
C. Zady Sery
Substitution
Ivory Coast
11 C. Zady Sery
W. Abdulai
Ghana
9 W. Abdulai
E. Breivik
Norway
10 E. Breivik
P. Dahlberg
Sweden
12 P. Dahlberg
S. Ottesen
Norway
3 S. Ottesen
U. Yttergård Jenssen
Substitution
Norway
23 U. Yttergård Jenssen
S. Foss
Norway
5 S. Foss
L. Ranger
Norway
2 L. Ranger
Y. Ibrahimaj
Kosovo
29 Y. Ibrahimaj
V. António Félix
Substitution
Angola
20 V. António Félix
E. Bugale Kitolano
Norway
17 E. Bugale Kitolano
M. Karlsbakk
Substitution
Norway
8 M. Karlsbakk
S. Drammeh
Substitution
Gambia
15 S. Drammeh
T. Lehne Olsen
Norway
10 T. Lehne Olsen

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 06, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition
2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 3 · Regular Season
Stadium
Aker Stadion
Capacity
11249
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Jørgen Rønning Valstadsve
Jim André Alnes Dyb
Torgeir Halsen
Svein Tore Sinnes

Statistics

Possession
Molde
59%
Lillestrøm
41%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 2
8 Shots 11
72 Dangerous attacks 38
61 Possession 39
6 Corners 4
14 Free kicks 22
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

61 Ball Safe 66
2 Injuries 2
8 Goal Attempts 10
21 Dribble Attempts 13
43 Successful Dribbles Percentage 15
9 Goal Kicks 13
19 Throwins 15
9 Successful Dribbles 2
0 Assists 1
5 Substitutions 4

Attacking

3 Big Chances Missed 1
139 Attacks 84
1 Counter Attacks 2

Possession

58 Successful Long Passes Percentage 41
53 Long Passes 59
31 Successful Long Passes 24
487 Successful Passes 291
565 Passes 376
86 Successful Passes Percentage 77
7 Key Passes 15

Defensive

47 Duels Won 51
19 Tackles 19
16 Interceptions 8
2 Saves 3

Build-up

7 Accurate Crosses 3
28 Total Crosses 7

Discipline

20 Fouls 12
2 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Svein Tore Sinnes

Starting XI ▼

1
Mads Kikkenborg
Mads Kikkenborg Goalkeeper
4
S. Hansen
S. Hansen Defender
18
Halldor Stenevik
Halldor Stenevik Defender
25
Martin Linnes
Martin Linnes Defender
8
Fredrik Gulbrandsen
Fredrik Gulbrandsen
Attacker66'
33
Birk Risa
Birk Risa Defender
5
Eirik Hestad
Eirik Hestad Midfielder
31
Blerton Isufi
Blerton Isufi
Midfielder80'
11
Caleb Zady Sery
Caleb Zady Sery Midfielder
24
Trent Kone Doherty
Trent Kone Doherty
Attacker67'
14
Jacob Christensen
Jacob Christensen Midfielder
28
Viktor Bender
Viktor Bender
Midfielder46'
15
Vebjørn Hoff
Vebjørn Hoff Midfielder
9
Jalal Abdullai
Jalal Abdullai Attacker
10
Emil Breivik
Emil Breivik Attacker
Referee : Svein Tore Sinnes

Starting XI ▼

12
Pontus Dahlberg
Pontus Dahlberg Goalkeeper
2
Lars Ranger
Lars Ranger Defender
3
Sturla Ottesen
Sturla Ottesen Defender
5
Sander Moen Foss
Sander Moen Foss Defender
23
Ulrik Yttergård Jenssen
Ulrik Yttergård Jenssen Defender
26
Yaw Paintsil
Yaw Paintsil
Midfielder76'
8
Markus Karlsbakk
Markus Karlsbakk Midfielder
30
Lucas Svenningsen
Lucas Svenningsen
Defender90+2'
15
Salieu Drammeh
Salieu Drammeh Midfielder
19
Camil Jebara
Camil Jebara
Attacker84'
17
Eric Kitolano
Eric Kitolano Midfielder
20
Felix Vá
Felix Vá Midfielder
14
Gustav Nyheim
Gustav Nyheim
Attacker90+2'
29
Y. Ibrahimaj
Y. Ibrahimaj Midfielder
10
Thomas Lehne Olsen
Thomas Lehne Olsen Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Lucas Svenningsen → Markus Karlsbakk
9th Substitution
90+2'
Event
Gustav Nyheim → Felix Vá
8th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Pontus Dahlberg
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Eirik Haugan → Viktor Bender 
7th Substitution
89'
84'
Event
Camil Jebara → Salieu Drammeh
6th Substitution
Event
Blerton Isufi → Eirik Hestad
5th Substitution
80'
76'
Event
Yaw Paintsil → Ulrik Yttergård Jenssen
4th Substitution
Event
Trent Kone Doherty → Caleb Zady Sery
3rd Substitution
67'
Event
Fredrik Gulbrandsen → Martin Linnes
2nd Substitution
66'
49'
Event
Thomas Lehne Olsen
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Viktor Bender  → Jacob Christensen
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
45+3'
Event
Y. Ibrahimaj
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Halldor Stenevik
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
42'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Lillestrøm exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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