Sarpsborg 08 vs Start Prediction, Preview and Stats

Norway flag 2026 Eliteserien, Norway
Sarpsborg Stadion Mon, 6 Apr - 3:00 PM
Eliteserien
Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08
1 – 1
Start Start
Full Time Mon, 6 Apr 3:00 PM
Round 3 Regular Season
Claus Niyukuri - 35'
Goal
|
Goal
J. Cornelius - 33'

CONTEXT

The match between Sarpsborg 08 and Start has officially finished, concluding with a 0-0 full-time draw. The two sides were even at the break and ultimately failed to find a decisive breakthrough before the final whistle. Pre-match expectations heavily favored the home side. Sarpsborg 08 entered the contest as the stronger team with a 52.7% implied win probability, while the likelihood of a draw sat at just 23.8% and a Start win at 23.5%. Because the home side failed to secure the victory, the draw was not aligned with the pre-match market. This resulted in a significant deviation from expectations, falling heavily on Sarpsborg 08. Looking at the match dynamics, Sarpsborg 08 dictated the play by holding 58% of the possession compared to Start's 42%. Expected goals (xG) data was completely unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to determine if the outcome was consistent with underlying chance creation. The fixture proceeded without any major disciplinary disruptions, as no red cards were issued to impact the flow of the game. Additionally, the overall efficiency shift for the teams remained in line with the final scoreless outcome.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Sarpsborg 08 showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Olav Dale
A. Olav Dale
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.72
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.97
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
A. Rossland
A. Rossland
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.72
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.97
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
A. Bodding
A. Bodding
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.72
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.97
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
M. Aslam
M. Aslam
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.72
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.97
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Sarpsborg 08 E. Sel
E. Sel
VS
Start A. Karadas
A. Karadas
1.71
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.5
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sandefjord Rank: 61 W
Molde Rank: 63 W
Bryne Rank: 55 W
Fredrikstad Rank: 62 L
Tromsø Rank: 68 L
KFUM Rank: 57 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Aalesund Rank: 41 D
KFUM Rank: 57 L
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 2 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Sarpsborg 08
52.71%
Draw
23.84%
Away Start
23.45%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
60.99
46.68
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Sarpsborg 08
Start
Power Score
60.99
46.68
League Position
5
13
Global Rank
434
759

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Sarpsborg 08 — Opponent-weighted form score
Start — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Sarpsborg 08 Start

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Sarpsborg 08

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Start

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Sarpsborg 08 ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Start
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
34.05
22.02
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.02
34.05
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Sarpsborg 08 +1.25 Efficiency Index
vs
Start -1.25 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Sarpsborg 08
Start
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Sarpsborg 08 ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Start
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Sarpsborg 08 Start
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Sarpsborg 08 Start
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Sarpsborg 08
Start
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Sarpsborg 08
vs
Start
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Sarpsborg 08 Start
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Sarpsborg 08 0.31
Start 0.16
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Sarpsborg 08 Start
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Sarpsborg 08 0.02
Start 0.02
Sarpsborg 08
Start
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 14 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Sarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08 Home
14 matches
Start Start Away
Match Record
8
Wins
4
2
Draws
2
4
Losses
8
Goals
24
Goals Scored
14
14
Goals Conceded
24
+10
Goal Difference
-10
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-07T00:03:56+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 5-3-2
Pitch
M. Ndiaye
Senegal
1 M. Ndiaye
C. Niyukuri
Substitution
Norway
12 C. Niyukuri
B. Utvik
Norway
4 B. Utvik
S. Rosted
Norway
24 S. Rosted
A. Hiim
Norway
21 A. Hiim
S. Sørli
Norway
10 S. Sørli
A. Sher
Sweden
6 A. Sher
V. Halvorsen
Substitution
Norway
22 V. Halvorsen
M. Opoku
Substitution
15 M. Opoku
A. Hansen
Substitution
Denmark
33 A. Hansen
D. Seland Karlsbakk
Norway
11 D. Seland Karlsbakk
J. Larsen
Denmark
1 J. Larsen
T. Strannegard
Substitution
Sweden
16 T. Strannegard
K. Tønnessen
Norway
19 K. Tønnessen
J. Norheim
Norway
6 J. Norheim
E. Reitan
Norway
29 E. Reitan
M. Ugland
Substitution
Norway
18 M. Ugland
E. Segberg
Norway
23 E. Segberg
M. Soomets
Estonia
14 M. Soomets
E. Schulze
Substitution
Norway
11 E. Schulze
J. Cornelius
17 J. Cornelius
H. Lorentzen
Substitution
Norway
20 H. Lorentzen

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 06, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition
2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 3 · Regular Season
Stadium
Sarpsborg Stadion
Capacity
8022
Attendance
5422
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Anders Olav Dale
Alf Olav Rossland
Anders Bodding
Mohammad Usman Aslam

Statistics

Possession
Sarpsborg 08
57%
Start
43%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 3
17 Shots 7
55 Dangerous attacks 45
58 Possession 42
7 Corners 2
15 Free kicks 8
0 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

3 Injuries 1
63 Ball Safe 55
9 Goal Attempts 3
19 Dribble Attempts 9
47 Successful Dribbles Percentage 56
26 Throwins 25
9 Goal Kicks 9
9 Successful Dribbles 5
1 Assists 1
4 Substitutions 4

Attacking

2 Big Chances Missed 2
1 Counter Attacks 1
84 Attacks 74

Possession

48 Successful Long Passes Percentage 41
83 Long Passes 66
40 Successful Long Passes 27
425 Passes 299
79 Successful Passes Percentage 74
335 Successful Passes 221
14 Key Passes 5

Defensive

52 Duels Won 44
13 Tackles 15
10 Interceptions 11
0 Saves 4

Build-up

5 Accurate Crosses 5
23 Total Crosses 17

Discipline

8 Fouls 15
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Mohammad Usman Aslam

Starting XI ▼

1
Mamour Ndiaye
Mamour Ndiaye Goalkeeper
4
Bjørn Inge Utvik
Bjørn Inge Utvik Defender
12
Claus Niyukuri
Claus Niyukuri Defender
32
Eirik Wichne
Eirik Wichne
Defender70'
21
Anders Hiim
Anders Hiim Defender
24
Sigurd Rosted
Sigurd Rosted Defender
6
Aimar Sher
Aimar Sher Midfielder
10
Sondre Sörli
Sondre Sörli Midfielder
15
M. Opoku
M. Opoku Midfielder
17
Noa Williams
Noa Williams
Midfielder82'
22
Victor Emanuel Halvorsen
Victor Emanuel Halvorsen Midfielder
18
Bop Guèye
Bop Guèye
Midfielder82'
11
Daniel Karlsbakk
Daniel Karlsbakk Attacker
33
Andreas Hansen
Andreas Hansen Attacker
2
Menno Koch
Menno Koch
Defender90+1'
Referee : Mohammad Usman Aslam

Starting XI ▼

1
J. Pryts
J. Pryts Goalkeeper
6
John Norheim
John Norheim Defender
16
T. Strannegård
T. Strannegård Defender
5
O. Jebali
O. Jebali
Defender90+8'
18
M. Ugland
M. Ugland Defender
30
L. Gausdal
L. Gausdal
Midfielder76'
19
Kristoffer Tønnessen
Kristoffer Tønnessen Defender
29
Erlend Dahl Reitan
Erlend Dahl Reitan Defender
11
E. Schulze
E. Schulze Midfielder
27
Ousmane Diallo Toure
Ousmane Diallo Toure
Defender62'
14
Markus Soomets
Markus Soomets Midfielder
23
Erlend Segberg
Erlend Segberg Midfielder
17
J. Cornelius
J. Cornelius Attacker
20
H. Lorentzen
H. Lorentzen Attacker
22
J. Ampofo
J. Ampofo
Attacker62'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+8'
Event
O. Jebali → T. Strannegård
8th Substitution
Event
Menno Koch → Andreas Hansen
7th Substitution
90+1'
86'
Event
Erlend Segberg
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
84'
Event
Erlend Dahl Reitan
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Noa Williams → M. Opoku
6th Substitution
82'
Event
Bop Guèye → Victor Emanuel Halvorsen
5th Substitution
82'
76'
Event
L. Gausdal → M. Ugland
4th Substitution
Event
Eirik Wichne → Claus Niyukuri
3rd Substitution
70'
64'
Event
M. Ugland
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
62'
Event
Ousmane Diallo Toure → E. Schulze
2nd Substitution
62'
Event
J. Ampofo → H. Lorentzen
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Claus Niyukuri
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
35'
33'
Event
J. Cornelius
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Sarpsborg 08 exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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