Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka Prediction, Preview and Stats

Ukraine flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Stadion Livyy Bereh Mon, 6 Apr - 3:00 PM
Premier League
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1 Winner 0
Kudrivka Kudrivka
Full Time Mon, 6 Apr 3:00 PM
Round 22 Regular Season
Carlos Rojas - 56'
Goal
|
Carlos Rojas 56' Second yellow card
|

CONTEXT

The match has officially finished, with Epitsentr Dunayivtsi securing a 1-0 victory over Kudrivka. Following a deadlocked 0-0 first half, the home side managed to find the decisive breakthrough in the second period. This outcome directly aligned with pre-match market expectations, which heavily favored the stronger Epitsentr Dunayivtsi side with a 55.5% win probability, leaving Kudrivka at 18.8% and the draw at 25.7%. Securing the victory required a significant deviation level of 44.5% for the hosts. While expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture to evaluate underlying chance creation or xG alignment, the home team's efficiency shift was entirely in line with the final result. The overall flow of the game was tightly contested. Possession was split closely, with Epitsentr Dunayivtsi controlling 52% of the ball compared to Kudrivka's 48%. The fixture's dynamics were heavily impacted by a dismissal, as Epitsentr Dunayivtsi received one red card. Despite facing this second-half red card distortion, the ten-man hosts displayed impressive resilience, managing the disadvantage effectively to protect their narrow lead and claim all three points.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
O. Omelchenko
O. Omelchenko
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.25
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.55
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
T. Chopilko
T. Chopilko
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.25
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.55
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
V. Drykin
V. Drykin
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.25
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.55
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
K. Kozorog
K. Kozorog
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.25
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.55
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.2
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi S. Nahornyak
S. Nahornyak
VS
Kudrivka V. Baranov
V. Baranov
1.31
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.85
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Rank: 56 L
Rukh Vynnyky Rank: 47 W
Kolos Kovalivka Rank: 52 W
Dynamo Kyiv Rank: 66 L
LNZ Cherkasy Rank: 58 L
Shakhtar Donetsk Rank: 73 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Polissya Zhytomyr Rank: 60 L
Veres Rank: 46 D
Karpaty Rank: 53 D
SK Poltava Rank: 33 W
Zorya Luhansk Rank: 52 D
Oleksandria Rank: 46 D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
55.47%
Draw
25.74%
Away Kudrivka
18.79%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
44.93
41.96
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Kudrivka
Power Score
44.93
41.96
League Position
11
13
Global Rank
841
944

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — Opponent-weighted form score
Kudrivka — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Kudrivka

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Kudrivka

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kudrivka
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
11.44
22.71
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.71
11.44
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi -1.09 Efficiency Index
vs
Kudrivka +1.09 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Kudrivka
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kudrivka
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Kudrivka
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Kudrivka
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Kudrivka
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
vs
Kudrivka
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Kudrivka
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.10
Kudrivka 0.24
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Kudrivka
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.00
Kudrivka 0.03
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Kudrivka
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Home
1 matches
Kudrivka Kudrivka Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
1
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-07T00:03:52+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-1-3
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
O. Bilyk
Ukraine
31 O. Bilyk
I. Kyryukhantsev
Substitution
Ukraine
70 I. Kyryukhantsev
V. Moroz
Ukraine
4 V. Moroz
N. Coch Montaña
Spain
77 N. Coch Montaña
O. Klymets
Ukraine
97 O. Klymets
J. Ceberio Amonarriz
Spain
39 J. Ceberio Amonarriz
E. Zaporozhets
Ukraine
5 E. Zaporozhets
M. Myronyuk
Substitution
Ukraine
8 M. Myronyuk
C. Rojas Mosquera
Spain
99 C. Rojas Mosquera
V. Sydun
Substitution
Ukraine
20 V. Sydun
J. Cifuentes Xalmet
Spain
9 J. Cifuentes Xalmet
A. Yashkov
Ukraine
37 A. Yashkov
A. Machelyuk
Ukraine
39 A. Machelyuk
J. Collahuazo Vaca
Ecuador
55 J. Collahuazo Vaca
M. Serdyuk
Ukraine
17 M. Serdyuk
O. Gusev
Ukraine
30 O. Gusev
K. Makosso Faites Prevu
Substitution
Brazil
14 K. Makosso Faites Prevu
E. Morozko
Substitution
Ukraine
33 E. Morozko
A. Hlushchenko
Substitution
Ukraine
21 A. Hlushchenko
A. Storchous
Ukraine
8 A. Storchous
D. Svitiukha
Substitution
Ukraine
20 D. Svitiukha
R. Frimpong Owusu
Substitution
Ghana
24 R. Frimpong Owusu

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 06, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine · Round 22 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Livyy Bereh
Capacity
40003
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Oleksandr Omelchenko
Taras Chopilko
Vladyslav Drykin
Kristina Kozorog

Statistics

Possession
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
51%
Kudrivka
49%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
2 Shots 1
39 Dangerous attacks 38
52 Possession 48
5 Corners 8
11 Free kicks 14
2 Yellow Cards 0
2 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

13 Goal Kicks 11
3 Substitutions 6

Attacking

65 Attacks 61

Defensive

1 Saves 1

Discipline

15 Fouls 7
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Oleksandr Omelchenko

Starting XI ▼

31
Oleg Bilyk
Oleg Bilyk Goalkeeper
4
Vladyslav Moroz
Vladyslav Moroz Defender
70
Ihor Kyriukhantsev
Ihor Kyriukhantsev Defender
3
Stepan Grigorashchuk
Stepan Grigorashchuk
Defender90+1'
77
Nil Coch
Nil Coch Defender
97
Oleksandr Klymets
Oleksandr Klymets Defender
5
Yevhen Zaporozhets
Yevhen Zaporozhets Midfielder
8
Mykola Myronyuk
Mykola Myronyuk Midfielder
28
Andriy Lipovuz
Andriy Lipovuz
Midfielder90+4'
9
Joaquinete
Joaquinete Midfielder
20
Vadym Sydun
Vadym Sydun Midfielder
21
Vladyslav Supryaga
Vladyslav Supryaga
Attacker85'
39
Jon Ceberio
Jon Ceberio Midfielder
99
Carlos Rojas
Carlos Rojas Midfielder
Referee : Oleksandr Omelchenko

Starting XI ▼

37
Anton Yashkov
Anton Yashkov Goalkeeper
17
Myroslav Serdyuk
Myroslav Serdyuk Defender
30
Oleksiy Gusev
Oleksiy Gusev Defender
39
Artem Machelyuk
Artem Machelyuk Defender
55
Jair Collahuazo
Jair Collahuazo Defender
8
Andriy Storchous
Andriy Storchous Midfielder
14
Kaya Makosso
Kaya Makosso Midfielder
77
Artem Liehostaiev
Artem Liehostaiev
Attacker72'
20
Denys Svityukha
Denys Svityukha Midfielder
10
Oleksandr Kozak
Oleksandr Kozak
Midfielder46'
21
Anton Glushchenko
Anton Glushchenko Midfielder
29
Denys Nagnoynyi
Denys Nagnoynyi
Midfielder59'
33
Yevgeniy Morozko
Yevgeniy Morozko Midfielder
27
Oleg Pushkaryov
Oleg Pushkaryov
Midfielder63'
24
Raymond Owusu
Raymond Owusu Attacker
9
Alban Taipi
Alban Taipi
Attacker63'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Andriy Lipovuz → Mykola Myronyuk
8th Substitution
90+4'
Event
Stepan Grigorashchuk → Ihor Kyriukhantsev
7th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Vladyslav Supryaga → Vadym Sydun
6th Substitution
85'
72'
Event
Artem Liehostaiev → Kaya Makosso
5th Substitution
63'
Event
Oleg Pushkaryov → Yevgeniy Morozko
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Alban Taipi → Raymond Owusu
4th Substitution
59'
Event
Denys Nagnoynyi → Anton Glushchenko
2nd Substitution
Event
Carlos Rojas
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
56'
Event
Carlos Rojas
Second Yellow Card / 1st Yellow/red Card
56'
46'
Event
Oleksandr Kozak → Denys Svityukha
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Ihor Kyriukhantsev
2nd Yellowcard
21'
Event
3rd Yellowcard
21'
21'
Event
1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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