Gent vs Mechelen Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Planet Group Arena Mon, 6 Apr - 4:30 PM
Pro League
Gent GNT
1 – 1
Mechelen MEC
Full Time Mon, 6 Apr 4:30 PM
Round 1 Championship Round
Max Dean - 15'
Goal
|
Goal
Bill Antonio - 90+5'

CONTEXT

The match between Gent and Mechelen has officially finished, ending in a 1-1 full-time draw. Gent secured a narrow 1-0 advantage by half-time, but Mechelen fought back in the second half to ensure the spoils were shared. This result proved to be a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, particularly disappointing the stronger side, Gent. Prior to kickoff, the market heavily favored the home team with a 49.5% win probability, while a draw sat at 26.1% and a Mechelen victory at just 24.4%. As a result of the upset, the final outcome did not align with the pre-match market. On the pitch, the visitors controlled the tempo, with Mechelen holding 65% possession compared to Gent's 35%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, leaving it undetermined if the 1-1 scoreline aligned with the underlying chance quality. However, the overall efficiency shift was evaluated as being in line with standard game dynamics. Finally, the match was contested without severe disciplinary issues, as neither side received a red card.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Gent showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
K. Debeuckelaere
K. Debeuckelaere
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.13
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.85
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
W. Smet
W. Smet
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.13
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.85
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
J. Boterberg
J. Boterberg
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.13
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.85
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
N. Senecaut
N. Senecaut
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.13
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.85
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.33
Gent R. Demil
R. Demil
VS
Mechelen F. Vanderbiest
F. Vanderbiest
1.4
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.45
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dender Rank: 61 W
Zulte-Waregem Rank: 63 W
Mechelen Rank: 71 W
Genk Rank: 77 L
Cercle Brugge Rank: 67 L
Sporting Charleroi Rank: 69 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Club Brugge Rank: 83 L
Anderlecht Rank: 74 W
Gent Rank: 72 L
Zulte-Waregem Rank: 64 W
La Louvière Rank: 67 W
Genk Rank: 77 L
23
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
23 - 11 - 8
8

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Gent
49.45%
Draw
26.11%
Away Mechelen
24.44%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
72.27
70.68
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Gent
Mechelen
Power Score
72.27
70.68
League Position
4
5
Global Rank
149
177

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Gent — Opponent-weighted form score
Mechelen — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Gent Mechelen

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Gent

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Mechelen

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Gent ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Mechelen
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
21.86
16.54
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
16.54
21.86
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Gent +0.47 Efficiency Index
vs
Mechelen -0.47 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Gent
Mechelen
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Gent ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Mechelen
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Gent Mechelen
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Gent Mechelen
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Gent
Mechelen
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Gent
vs
Mechelen
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Gent Mechelen
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Gent 0.18
Mechelen 0.15
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Gent Mechelen
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Gent 0.02
Mechelen 0.03
Gent
Mechelen
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 42 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Gent GNT Home
42 matches
Mechelen MEC Away
Match Record
23
Wins
8
11
Draws
11
8
Losses
23
Goals
83
Goals Scored
48
48
Goals Conceded
83
+35
Goal Difference
-35
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-07T00:04:53+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
D. Roef
Belgium
33 D. Roef
D. Hashioka
Japan
4 D. Hashioka
M. Volckaert
Belgium
57 M. Volckaert
S. Van der Heyden
Belgium
44 S. Van der Heyden
M. Skóraś
Poland
8 M. Skóraś
A. Kadri
Substitution
Algeria
37 A. Kadri
L. da Silva Lopes
Portugal
22 L. da Silva Lopes
T. Alves Araújo
Portugal
20 T. Alves Araújo
H. Hong
Substitution
South Korea
24 H. Hong
M. Dean
England
21 M. Dean
A. Kanga
Substitution
France
7 A. Kanga
I. Mirás Blanco
Spain
13 I. Mirás Blanco
J. Martinez Marsà
Spain
3 J. Martinez Marsà
R. Halhal
Morocco
2 R. Halhal
T. St. Jago
Substitution
Netherlands
33 T. St. Jago
M. Servais
Belgium
17 M. Servais
D. Salifou
Substitution
Togo
29 D. Salifou
F. Hammar
Sweden
6 F. Hammar
T. Koudou
France
7 T. Koudou
M. van Brederode
Netherlands
9 M. van Brederode
B. Raman
Substitution
Belgium
14 B. Raman
K. Mrabti
Sweden
19 K. Mrabti

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 06, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 1 · Championship Round
Stadium
Planet Group Arena
Capacity
20185
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
K. Debeuckelaere
Wim Smet
Jan Boterberg
N. Senecaut

Statistics

Possession
GNT
38%
MEC
62%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 2
4 Shots 6
33 Dangerous attacks 55
35 Possession 65
5 Corners 10
7 Free kicks 9
1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

10 Dribble Attempts 15
14 Throwins 31
6 Goal Kicks 5
1 Assists 1
4 Successful Dribbles 10
40 Successful Dribbles Percentage 67
4 Substitutions 3
49 Ball Safe 67
2 Injuries 2
6 Goal Attempts 5

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 2
94 Attacks 98

Possession

5 Key Passes 5
23 Successful Long Passes 28
47 Successful Long Passes Percentage 56
77 Successful Passes Percentage 86
317 Passes 580
49 Long Passes 50
244 Successful Passes 496

Defensive

4 Saves 3
12 Interceptions 5
16 Tackles 16

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 3
8 Total Crosses 28

Discipline

9 Fouls 7
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Jan Boterberg

Starting XI ▼

33
Davy Roef
Davy Roef Goalkeeper
4
Daiki Hashioka
Daiki Hashioka Defender
44
Siebe Van der Heyden
Siebe Van der Heyden Defender
57
Matties Volckaert
Matties Volckaert Defender
8
Michal Skoras
Michal Skoras Midfielder
20
Tiago Araújo
Tiago Araújo Midfielder
22
Leonardo Lopes
Leonardo Lopes Midfielder
37
Abdelkahar Kadri
Abdelkahar Kadri Midfielder
15
Atsuki Ito
Atsuki Ito
Midfielder71'
7
Wilfried Kanga
Wilfried Kanga Attacker
75
Ibrahima Cissé
Ibrahima Cissé
Attacker90'
21
Max Dean
Max Dean Attacker
24
Hyun-seok Hong
Hyun-seok Hong Attacker
45
Hyllarion Goore
Hyllarion Goore
Attacker67'
Referee : Jan Boterberg

Starting XI ▼

13
Nacho Miras
Nacho Miras Goalkeeper
2
Redouane Halhal
Redouane Halhal Defender
3
José Marsà
José Marsà Defender
33
Tommy St. Jago
Tommy St. Jago Defender
10
Maxim Kireev
Maxim Kireev
Midfielder90'
6
Fredrik Hammar
Fredrik Hammar Midfielder
7
Thérence Koudou
Thérence Koudou Midfielder
17
Mathis Servais
Mathis Servais Midfielder
29
Dikeni Salifou
Dikeni Salifou Midfielder
38
Bill Antonio
Bill Antonio
Attacker46'
9
Myron van Brederode
Myron van Brederode Attacker
14
Damir Milanovic
Damir Milanovic Attacker
28
Bouke Boersma
Bouke Boersma
Attacker68'
19
Kerim Mrabti
Kerim Mrabti Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Max Dean
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
90+6'
90+5'
Event
Bill Antonio
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Ibrahima Cissé → Wilfried Kanga
5th Substitution
90'
Event
Jean-Kévin Duverne → Hyllarion Goore
6th Substitution
90'
90'
Event
Maxim Kireev → Tommy St. Jago
7th Substitution
Event
Atsuki Ito → Abdelkahar Kadri
4th Substitution
71'
68'
Event
Bouke Boersma → Damir Milanovic
3rd Substitution
Event
Hyllarion Goore → Hyun-seok Hong
2nd Substitution
67'
46'
Event
Bill Antonio → Dikeni Salifou
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Max Dean
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
15'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Gent exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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