Castellón vs Granada Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Nou Estadi Castalia Mon, 6 Apr - 5:00 PM
La Liga 2
Castellón Castellón
3 Winner 2
Granada GRA
Full Time Mon, 6 Apr 5:00 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Ousmane Camara - 30'
Diego Barri - 42'
Fabrizio Brignani - 53'
Goal
|
Goal
Jorge Pascual - 35', 63' (P)

CONTEXT

The match between Castellón and Granada has officially finished with a full-time score of 3-2 in favor of Castellón. The hosts established their lead early, heading into halftime with a 2-1 advantage before ultimately securing the home victory in the second half. This outcome aligned perfectly with pre-match market expectations. Castellón entered the fixture as the clear favorites, holding a dominant 61.6% implied probability of victory compared to a 23.3% chance of a draw and just 15.1% for Granada. As the recognized stronger team, Castellón delivered a performance that accounted for a significant deviation level of 38.4% in their favor. Statistically, the game was fairly competitive in terms of control. Castellón held a slight majority of the ball with 52% possession, leaving Granada with 48%. While expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture to determine alignment with underlying chance creation, the final efficiency shift was deemed entirely in line with expectations. Furthermore, the flow and outcome of the match were not distorted by any severe disciplinary issues, as the game concluded cleanly with zero red cards shown to either side.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Castellón showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
G. Etayo Herrera
G. Etayo Herrera
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.95
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.52
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.32
B. Valencia López
B. Valencia López
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.95
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.52
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.32
D. Novoa Hernández
D. Novoa Hernández
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.95
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.52
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.32
P. Arenas Mora
P. Arenas Mora
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.95
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.52
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.32
Castellón P. Hernández Domínguez
P. Hernández Domínguez
VS
Granada J. Rojo Martín
J. Rojo Martín
1.72
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.36
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Almería Rank: 71 W
Albacete Rank: 67 D
Cultural Leonesa Rank: 59 D
Sporting Gijón Rank: 64 L
Real Sociedad II Rank: 61 L
Racing Santander Rank: 69 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Las Palmas Rank: 69 L
Huesca Rank: 60 W
Real Sociedad II Rank: 64 W
FC Andorra Rank: 60 D
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: 68 W
Málaga Rank: 68 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Castellón
61.61%
Draw
23.26%
Away Granada
15.14%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
67.07
65.75
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Castellón
Granada
Power Score
67.07
65.75
League Position
5
14
Global Rank
258
294

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Castellón — Opponent-weighted form score
Granada — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Castellón Granada

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Castellón

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Granada

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Castellón ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Granada
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
25.38
28.54
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.54
25.38
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Castellón -0.32 Efficiency Index
vs
Granada +0.32 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Castellón
Granada
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Castellón ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Granada
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Castellón Granada
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Castellón Granada
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Castellón
Granada
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Castellón
vs
Granada
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Castellón Granada
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Castellón 0.25
Granada 0.35
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Castellón Granada
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Castellón 0.06
Granada 0.07
Castellón
Granada
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Castellón Castellón Home
3 matches
Granada GRA Away
Match Record
0
Wins
2
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
0
Goals
3
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
3
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-07T00:05:03+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
R. Matthys
Belgium
13 R. Matthys
J. Mellot
France
22 J. Mellot
F. Brignani
Italy
3 F. Brignani
A. Jiménez Benítez
Spain
5 A. Jiménez Benítez
M. Conde Gómez
Substitution
Spain
2 M. Conde Gómez
P. Santiago López
Substitution
Spain
18 P. Santiago López
B. Gerenabarrena Zendoia
Spain
15 B. Gerenabarrena Zendoia
D. Hernández Barriuso
Spain
8 D. Hernández Barriuso
A. Jakobsen
Substitution
Denmark
19 A. Jakobsen
A. Calatrava Torrado
Substitution
Spain
21 A. Calatrava Torrado
O. Camara
Substitution
Guinea
9 O. Camara
A. Astralaga Aranguren
Spain
13 A. Astralaga Aranguren
B. Diallo
Substitution
Senegal
22 B. Diallo
L. Ntambue Kayumba
Spain
24 L. Ntambue Kayumba
B. Diaby
Spain
17 B. Diaby
O. Naasei Oppong
Ghana
28 O. Naasei Oppong
P. Serra
Substitution
Spain
8 P. Serra
I. González Muñoz
Spain
41 I. González Muñoz
P. Saenz Ezquerra
Substitution
Spain
21 P. Saenz Ezquerra
J. Arnáiz Díaz
Spain
11 J. Arnáiz Díaz
J. Pascual Medina
Substitution
Spain
19 J. Pascual Medina
Á. Lemos Collazo
Substitution
Spain
18 Á. Lemos Collazo

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 06, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium
Nou Estadi Castalia
Capacity
15500
Attendance
12429
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Gorka Etayo Herrera
Brian Valencia López
Daniel Novoa Hernández
Pol Arenas Mora

Statistics

Possession
Castellón
51%
GRA
49%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 2
4 Big Chances Created 2
11 Shots 12
44 Dangerous attacks 34
52 Possession 48
6 Corners 4
15 Free kicks 21
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

28 Throwins 14
11 Dribble Attempts 25
5 Goal Kicks 8
2 Assists 1
36 Successful Dribbles Percentage 64
4 Successful Dribbles 16
64 Ball Safe 81
3 Injuries 1
8 Goal Attempts 8
0 Penalties 1
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

99 Attacks 68
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

78 Successful Passes Percentage 82
384 Passes 354
299 Successful Passes 289
56 Long Passes 48
7 Key Passes 8
23 Successful Long Passes 20
41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42

Defensive

8 Interceptions 4
18 Tackles 15
4 Saves 0
54 Duels Won 69

Build-up

19 Total Crosses 19
5 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

22 Fouls 15
2 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Gorka Etayo Herrera

Starting XI ▼

13
Romain Matthys
Romain Matthys Goalkeeper
2
Tincho Conde
Tincho Conde Defender
12
Lucas Alcázar
Lucas Alcázar
Defender69'
3
Fabrizio Brignani
Fabrizio Brignani Defender
5
Alberto Jiménez
Alberto Jiménez Defender
22
Jérémy Mellot
Jérémy Mellot Defender
8
Diego Barri
Diego Barri Midfielder
15
Beñat Gerenabarrena
Beñat Gerenabarrena Midfielder
18
Pablo Santiago
Pablo Santiago Midfielder
29
Tommaso De Nipoti
Tommaso De Nipoti
Attacker80'
19
Adam Jakobsen
Adam Jakobsen Midfielder
7
Awer Mabil
Awer Mabil
Midfielder69'
9
Ousmane Camara
Ousmane Camara Attacker
23
Álvaro García
Álvaro García
Attacker86'
21
Álex Calatrava
Álex Calatrava Attacker
6
Marc-Olivier Doué
Marc-Olivier Doué
Midfielder86'
Referee : Gorka Etayo Herrera

Starting XI ▼

13
Ander Astralaga
Ander Astralaga Goalkeeper
17
Bambo Diaby
Bambo Diaby Defender
22
Baïla Diallo
Baïla Diallo Defender
26
Sergio Rodelas
Sergio Rodelas
Attacker70'
24
Loïc Williams
Loïc Williams Defender
28
Oscar Naasei Oppong
Oscar Naasei Oppong Defender
8
Pedro Alemañ Serna
Pedro Alemañ Serna Midfielder
14
Manu Trigueros
Manu Trigueros
Midfielder76'
21
Pablo Sáenz
Pablo Sáenz Midfielder
20
Sergio Ruiz
Sergio Ruiz
Midfielder58'
41
Izan González
Izan González Midfielder
11
José Manuel Arnáiz
José Manuel Arnáiz Attacker
18
Álvaro Lemos
Álvaro Lemos Attacker
7
Álex Sola
Álex Sola
Attacker58'
19
Jorge Pascual
Jorge Pascual Attacker
2
9
Gonzalo Petit
Gonzalo Petit
Attacker70'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+5'
Event
Pacheta
Argument / 8th Yellowcard
90+3'
Event
Izan González
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+3'
Event
7th Yellowcard
Event
6th Yellowcard
89'
Event
Álvaro García
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
89'
Event
Marc-Olivier Doué → Álex Calatrava
9th Substitution
86'
Event
Álvaro García → Ousmane Camara
10th Substitution
86'
Event
Tommaso De Nipoti → Pablo Santiago
8th Substitution
80'
79'
Event
Var
76'
Event
Manu Trigueros → Pedro Alemañ Serna
7th Substitution
70'
Event
Gonzalo Petit → Jorge Pascual
5th Substitution
70'
Event
Sergio Rodelas → Baïla Diallo
6th Substitution
Event
Lucas Alcázar → Tincho Conde
3rd Substitution
69'
Event
Awer Mabil → Adam Jakobsen
4th Substitution
69'
63'
Event
Jorge Pascual
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
Event
Pablo Santiago
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
59'
58'
Event
Sergio Ruiz → Pablo Sáenz
1st Substitution
58'
Event
Álex Sola → Álvaro Lemos
2nd Substitution
Event
Fabrizio Brignani
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
53'
49'
Event
Oscar Naasei Oppong
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Diego Barri
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
42'
35'
Event
Jorge Pascual
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
33'
Event
Pablo Sáenz
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Ousmane Camara
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
30'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Castellón exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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