Kocaelispor vs İstanbul Başakşehir Prediction, Preview and Stats

Turkey flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey
İsmetpaşa Stadyumu Mon, 6 Apr - 5:00 PM
Super Lig
Kocaelispor Kocaelispor
0 – 0
İstanbul Başakşehir IBA
Full Time Mon, 6 Apr 5:00 PM
Round 28 Regular Season

CONTEXT

The match between Kocaelispor and İstanbul Başakşehir has officially finished in a 0-0 draw, keeping the scoreline identical to the goalless first half. This result represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, frustrating the stronger side, İstanbul Başakşehir. Going into the fixture, the visitors had a 44.3% chance of victory according to the pre-match market, while a draw was given just a 27.3% probability and a Kocaelispor win was at 28.4%. Consequently, the final outcome was not aligned with the initial market predictions. On the pitch, İstanbul Başakşehir heavily dominated the ball, recording 66% possession compared to Kocaelispor's 34%. Despite this control, neither side could break the deadlock in a clean match that featured zero red cards for either team. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to evaluate if the goalless outcome was consistent with the underlying quality of chances created. However, both teams' offensive production was entirely in line with expectations regarding overall efficiency shifts, as a lack of cutting edge ultimately forced the sides to share the spoils.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: İstanbul Başakşehir showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Çomoğlu
M. Çomoğlu
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.87
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.67
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
S. Bahadır
S. Bahadır
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.87
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.67
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
M. Curbay
M. Curbay
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.87
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.67
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
A. Yılmaz
A. Yılmaz
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.87
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.67
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.18
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.31
Kocaelispor S. İnan
S. İnan
VS
İstanbul Başakşehir N. Şahin
N. Şahin
1.47
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.85
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Alanyaspor Rank: 68 L
Konyaspor Rank: 67 L
Eyüpspor Rank: 62 W
Beşiktaş Rank: 78 L
Rizespor Rank: 67 L
Gaziantep F.K. Rank: 66 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Antalyaspor Rank: 59 D
Galatasaray Rank: 89 L
Göztepe Rank: 73 W
Konyaspor Rank: 68 W
Alanyaspor Rank: 70 W
Beşiktaş Rank: 78 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Kocaelispor
28.35%
Draw
27.32%
Away İstanbul Başakşehir
44.33%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
56.67
74.28
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Kocaelispor
İstanbul Başakşehir
Power Score
56.67
74.28
League Position
8
6
Global Rank
331
114

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Kocaelispor — Opponent-weighted form score
İstanbul Başakşehir — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Kocaelispor İstanbul Başakşehir

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Kocaelispor

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

İstanbul Başakşehir

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Kocaelispor ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy İstanbul Başakşehir
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
36.03
23.71
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.71
36.03
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Kocaelispor +1.35 Efficiency Index
vs
İstanbul Başakşehir -1.35 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Kocaelispor
İstanbul Başakşehir
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Kocaelispor ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy İstanbul Başakşehir
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Kocaelispor İstanbul Başakşehir
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Kocaelispor İstanbul Başakşehir
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Kocaelispor
İstanbul Başakşehir
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Kocaelispor
vs
İstanbul Başakşehir
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Kocaelispor İstanbul Başakşehir
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Kocaelispor 0.44
İstanbul Başakşehir 0.25
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Kocaelispor İstanbul Başakşehir
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Kocaelispor 0.00
İstanbul Başakşehir 0.00
Kocaelispor
İstanbul Başakşehir
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Kocaelispor Kocaelispor Home
2 matches
İstanbul Başakşehir IBA Away
Match Record
0
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
0
-6
Goal Difference
+6
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-07T00:05:09+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
S. Öztaşdelen
Turkey
83 S. Öztaşdelen
A. Oğuz
Substitution
Turkey
22 A. Oğuz
A. Dijksteel
Suriname
2 A. Dijksteel
H. Smolčić
Croatia
6 H. Smolčić
M. Cinan
Substitution
Turkey
3 M. Cinan
M. Susoho
Substitution
Spain
20 M. Susoho
M. Da Silva Cafumana
Angola
14 M. Da Silva Cafumana
H. Keita
Substitution
Mali
8 H. Keita
D. Agyei
England
7 D. Agyei
S. Dursun
Germany
19 S. Dursun
T. Bingöl
Substitution
Turkey
75 T. Bingöl
M. Şengezer
Turkey
16 M. Şengezer
C. Operi
France
21 C. Operi
J. Opoku
Ghana
3 J. Opoku
L. Duarte da Silva
Brazil
5 L. Duarte da Silva
Ö. Şahiner
Turkey
42 Ö. Şahiner
U. Güneş
Turkey
20 U. Güneş
O. Kemen
Cameroon
8 O. Kemen
A. Harit
Substitution
Morocco
25 A. Harit
E. Shomurodov
Substitution
Uzbekistan
14 E. Shomurodov
Y. Sari
Turkey
7 Y. Sari
D. Selke
Substitution
Germany
9 D. Selke

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 06, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey · Round 28 · Regular Season
Stadium
İsmetpaşa Stadyumu
Capacity
34829
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
M. Çomoğlu
Süleyman Bahadır
Murat Tuğberk Curbay
A. Yılmaz

Statistics

Possession
Kocaelispor
38%
IBA
62%

Top Statistics

1 Big Chances Created 1
8 Shots 5
25 Dangerous attacks 53
34 Possession 66
1 Corners 8
7 Free kicks 10
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

17 Throwins 21
9 Goal Kicks 8
12 Successful Headers 16
3 Dribble Attempts 10
2 Successful Dribbles 6
67 Successful Dribbles Percentage 60
9 Goal Attempts 6
86 Ball Safe 102
2 Injuries 0
5 Substitutions 3
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

67 Attacks 105
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

189 Successful Passes 459
49 Long Passes 55
70 Successful Passes Percentage 87
271 Passes 529
8 Key Passes 9
31 Successful Long Passes Percentage 51
15 Successful Long Passes 28

Defensive

14 Tackles 2
7 Interceptions 5
35 Duels Won 36
2 Saves 1

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 29
2 Accurate Crosses 7

Discipline

10 Fouls 7
4 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : A. Yılmaz

Starting XI ▼

83
Serhat Öztaşdelen
Serhat Öztaşdelen Goalkeeper
2
Anfernee Dijksteel
Anfernee Dijksteel Defender
3
Muharrem Cinan
Muharrem Cinan Defender
99
Rigoberto Rivas
Rigoberto Rivas
Attacker68'
6
Hrvoje Smolcic
Hrvoje Smolcic Defender
22
Ahmet Oğuz
Ahmet Oğuz Defender
70
Can Keleş
Can Keleş
Attacker90'
8
Habib Keïta
Habib Keïta Midfielder
23
Samet Yalçın
Samet Yalçın
Midfielder83'
14
Show
Show Midfielder
20
Mahamadou Susoho
Mahamadou Susoho Midfielder
10
Karol Linetty
Karol Linetty
Midfielder83'
7
Dan Agyei
Dan Agyei Attacker
19
Serdar Dursun
Serdar Dursun Attacker
75
Tayfur Bingöl
Tayfur Bingöl Attacker
17
Darko Churlinov
Darko Churlinov
Attacker68'
Referee : A. Yılmaz

Starting XI ▼

16
Muhammed Şengezer
Muhammed Şengezer Goalkeeper
3
Jerome Opoku
Jerome Opoku Defender
5
Léo Duarte
Léo Duarte Defender
21
Christopher Operi
Christopher Operi Defender
42
Ömer Ali Şahiner
Ömer Ali Şahiner Defender
7
Yusuf Sarı
Yusuf Sarı Midfielder
8
Olivier Kemen
Olivier Kemen Midfielder
14
Eldor Shomurodov
Eldor Shomurodov Midfielder
10
Nuno Da Costa
Nuno Da Costa
Attacker83'
20
Umut Güneş
Umut Güneş Midfielder
25
Amine Harit
Amine Harit Midfielder
77
Ivan Brnic
Ivan Brnic
Attacker73'
9
Davie Selke
Davie Selke Attacker
91
Bertuğ Yıldırım
Bertuğ Yıldırım
Attacker60'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Can Keleş → Ahmet Oğuz
8th Substitution
90'
Event
Karol Linetty → Mahamadou Susoho
6th Substitution
83'
Event
Samet Yalçın → Habib Keïta
7th Substitution
83'
83'
Event
Nuno Da Costa → Eldor Shomurodov
5th Substitution
73'
Event
Ivan Brnic → Amine Harit
4th Substitution
Event
Darko Churlinov → Tayfur Bingöl
2nd Substitution
68'
Event
Rigoberto Rivas → Muharrem Cinan
3rd Substitution
68'
60'
Event
Bertuğ Yıldırım → Davie Selke
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
22'
Event
Umut Güneş
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: İstanbul Başakşehir exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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