Arouca vs Estoril Prediction, Preview and Stats

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Estádio Municipal de Arouca Mon, 6 Apr - 5:45 PM
Liga Portugal
Arouca FCA
3 Winner 2
Estoril EPF
Full Time Mon, 6 Apr 5:45 PM
Round 28 Regular Season
Pablo Gozálbez - 55'
José Fontán - 45+2'
Iván Barbero - 13'
Goal
|
Goal
Yanis Begraoui - 32'
Xeka - 3'

CONTEXT

The match has officially concluded, with Arouca securing a hard-fought 3-2 victory over Estoril. It was an action-packed start to the fixture, as the teams headed into the halftime break evenly matched following an entertaining 2-2 scoreline. Arouca ultimately found the decisive breakthrough in the second half to claim the win. Heading into the game, pre-match market evaluations gave Arouca a 40.7% chance of winning, while Estoril held a 33.2% chance, alongside a 26.2% probability of a draw. Despite Estoril being classified generally as the stronger team, the final outcome safely aligned with the market's slight preference for the home side. The result represented a significant positive deviation for Arouca. On the pitch, Estoril dictated the tempo by holding 54% of the possession compared to Arouca's 46%. While specific expected goals (xG) data was unavailable to determine if the outcome aligned with the underlying chance creation, Arouca’s attacking efficiency shifted in line with expectations to edge the five-goal thriller. Furthermore, the match remained a pure contest of eleven against eleven, as there were no red cards issued to either side to artificially impact the tactical balance.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Arouca showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Carvalho Nobre

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

F. Serra Jorge Pereira

1st Assistant

G. Soares Vaz Freire

2nd Assistant

T. Oliveira

4th Official

Arouca V. Freire De Seabra
V. Freire De Seabra
VS
Estoril I. Cathro
I. Cathro
1.05
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.63
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Moreirense Rank: 68 W
Benfica Rank: 86 L
Famalicão Rank: 73 L
Porto Rank: 87 L
Nacional Rank: 64 W
Casa Pia Rank: 64 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rio Ave Rank: 63 L
Nacional Rank: 63 W
Casa Pia Rank: 64 D
Sporting CP Rank: 89 L
Gil Vicente Rank: 70 W
AVS Rank: 55 L
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 4 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Arouca
40.67%
Draw
26.16%
Away Estoril
33.17%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
65.02
68.52
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Arouca
Estoril
Power Score
65.02
68.52
League Position
11
7
Global Rank
316
223

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Arouca — Opponent-weighted form score
Estoril — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Arouca Estoril

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Arouca

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Estoril

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Arouca ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Estoril
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
29.13
26.02
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.02
29.13
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Arouca +0.31 Efficiency Index
vs
Estoril -0.31 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Arouca
Estoril
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Arouca ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Estoril
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Arouca Estoril
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Arouca Estoril
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Arouca
Estoril
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Arouca
vs
Estoril
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Arouca Estoril
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Arouca 0.43
Estoril 0.29
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Arouca Estoril
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Arouca 0.05
Estoril 0.11
Arouca
Estoril
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 17 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Arouca FCA Home
17 matches
Estoril EPF Away
Match Record
6
Wins
7
4
Draws
4
7
Losses
6
Goals
24
Goals Scored
29
29
Goals Conceded
24
-5
Goal Difference
+5

Data last updated: 2026-04-07T00:05:25+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-1-2
Pitch
I. De Arruabarrena Fernández
Uruguay
12 I. De Arruabarrena Fernández
T. Sousa Esgaio
Portugal
28 T. Sousa Esgaio
J. Sánchez de Felipe
Spain
15 J. Sánchez de Felipe
J. Fontán Mondragón
Spain
3 J. Fontán Mondragón
B. Kuipers
Netherlands
25 B. Kuipers
E. van Ee
Netherlands
22 E. van Ee
T. Fukui
Substitution
Japan
21 T. Fukui
P. Gozalbez Gilabert
Substitution
Spain
10 P. Gozalbez Gilabert
H. Lee
Substitution
South Korea
14 H. Lee
N. Djouahra
Substitution
France
7 N. Djouahra
I. Martínez Gonzálvez
Substitution
Spain
17 I. Martínez Gonzálvez
Pitch
J. Robles Blázquez
Spain
1 J. Robles Blázquez
P. Gaspar Amaral
Substitution
Portugal
24 P. Gaspar Amaral
F. Bacher
Austria
25 F. Bacher
A. Tsoungui
Belgium
5 A. Tsoungui
R. Sánchez Sendra
Spain
2 R. Sánchez Sendra
J. Holsgrove
Scotland
10 J. Holsgrove
M. da Silva Rocha
Substitution
Portugal
8 M. da Silva Rocha
A. Orellana Gómez
Spain
6 A. Orellana Gómez
J. Antunes Carvalho
Substitution
Portugal
12 J. Antunes Carvalho
A. Ferreira Lacximicant
Substitution
Portugal
19 A. Ferreira Lacximicant
Y. Begraoui
Morocco
14 Y. Begraoui

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 06, 2026, 05:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 28 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estádio Municipal de Arouca
Capacity :
5600
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Francisco João Serra Jorge Pereira
Gonçalo Nuno Soares Vaz Freire
António Emanuel Carvalho Nobre
Teresa Alice Pimenta Oliveira

Statistics

Possession
FCA
48%
EPF
52%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 2
5 Big Chances Created 1
4 Shots 3
28 Dangerous attacks 41
46 Possession 54
3 Corners 3
18 Free kicks 13
3 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

3 Assists 2
10 Successful Headers 12
14 Throwins 14
27 Successful Dribbles Percentage 39
15 Goal Kicks 7
3 Successful Dribbles 7
11 Dribble Attempts 18
10 Goal Attempts 11
66 Ball Safe 65
5 Substitutions 4
0 Hit Woodwork 1
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

1 Counter Attacks 1
92 Attacks 82
3 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

82 Successful Passes Percentage 83
7 Key Passes 11
64 Long Passes 43
419 Passes 487
344 Successful Passes 404
42 Successful Long Passes Percentage 35
27 Successful Long Passes 15

Defensive

14 Interceptions 5
16 Tackles 10
46 Duels Won 42
1 Saves 1

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 14
4 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

13 Fouls 18
2 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : António Emanuel Carvalho Nobre

Starting XI ▼

12
Ignacio de Arruabarrena
Ignacio de Arruabarrena Goalkeeper
3
José Fontán
José Fontán Defender
15
Javi Sánchez
Javi Sánchez Defender
25
Bas Kuipers
Bas Kuipers Defender
28
Tiago Esgaio
Tiago Esgaio Defender
7
Naïs Djouahra
Naïs Djouahra Midfielder
9
Fally Mayulu
Fally Mayulu
Attacker90'
10
Pablo Gozálbez
Pablo Gozálbez Midfielder
11
Miguel Puche
Miguel Puche
Attacker77'
14
Hyun-ju Lee
Hyun-ju Lee Midfielder
46
Mateo Flores
Mateo Flores
Midfielder90'
21
Taichi Fukui
Taichi Fukui Midfielder
24
Brian Mansilla
Brian Mansilla
Attacker83'
22
Espen van Ee
Espen van Ee Midfielder
17
Iván Barbero
Iván Barbero Attacker
89
Pedro Santos
Pedro Santos
Midfielder83'
Referee : António Emanuel Carvalho Nobre

Starting XI ▼

1
Joel Robles
Joel Robles Goalkeeper
2
Ricard Sánchez
Ricard Sánchez Defender
5
Antef Tsoungui
Antef Tsoungui Defender
24
Pedro Amaral
Pedro Amaral Defender
22
Pedro Carvalho
Pedro Carvalho
Defender65'
25
Felix Bacher
Felix Bacher Defender
6
Jandro Orellana
Jandro Orellana Midfielder
8
Xeka
Xeka Midfielder
9
Alejandro Marqués
Alejandro Marqués
Attacker65'
10
Jordan Holsgrove
Jordan Holsgrove Midfielder
12
João Carvalho
João Carvalho Midfielder
21
Pizzi
Pizzi
Midfielder65'
14
Yanis Begraoui
Yanis Begraoui Attacker
19
André Lacximicant
André Lacximicant Attacker
70
Peixinho
Peixinho
Attacker74'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Miguel Puche
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+7'
Event
Ignacio de Arruabarrena
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
90+1'
Event
Mateo Flores → Hyun-ju Lee
8th Substitution
90'
Event
Fally Mayulu → Naïs Djouahra
9th Substitution
90'
Event
Brian Mansilla → Taichi Fukui
6th Substitution
83'
Event
Pedro Santos → Iván Barbero
7th Substitution
83'
Event
Miguel Puche → Pablo Gozálbez
5th Substitution
77'
74'
Event
Peixinho → André Lacximicant
4th Substitution
71'
Event
André Lacximicant
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
65'
Event
Alejandro Marqués → Xeka
2nd Substitution
65'
Event
Pedro Carvalho → Pedro Amaral
1st Substitution
65'
Event
Pizzi → João Carvalho
3rd Substitution
Event
Pablo Gozálbez
2nd Yellowcard
56'
Event
Pablo Gozálbez
Header / 5th Goal
55'
1ST-HALF
Event
José Fontán
Header / 4th Goal
45+2'
36'
Event
Var
32'
Event
Yanis Begraoui
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
23'
Event
Jordan Holsgrove
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Iván Barbero
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
13'
3'
Event
Xeka
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Miguel Puche from Arouca misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, but the ball goes high and wide to the left.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arouca: Mateo Flores replaces Lee Hyun-Ju.
90
Update Update
Antef Tsoungui from Estoril committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Pedro Santos from Arouca won a free kick in defense.
90
Update Update
Fally Mayulu of Arouca is flagged for offside.
90
Update Update
Fouled by Pedro Carvalho of Estoril.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 7 minutes of added time.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arouca: Fally Mayulu replaces Naïs Djouahra.
90
Update Update
Mateo Flores from Arouca won a free kick in an attacking position.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ignacio de Arruabarrena from Arouca receives a yellow card.
90
Update Update
Yanis Begraoui from Estoril misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from the left side of the box, sending the ball high and wide to the right. The assist came from Pedro Carvalho after a fast break.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Arouca winning 3-2 against Estoril.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Miguel Puche from Arouca receives a yellow card for a foul.
90
Attempt Attempt
Shot blocked. Jandro Orellana from Estoril had a right-footed shot from the center of the box that was blocked.
90
Update Update
Peixinho from Estoril won a free kick on the right wing.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Miguel Puche of Arouca.
88
Update Update
Offside called against Arouca. Lee Hyun-Ju is offside.
87
Update Update
Pedro Carvalho from Estoril misses a chance, heading the ball from close range over the bar. The assist came from Jordan Holsgrove, who provided the cross.
86
Update Update
Jandro Orellana from Estoril won a free kick in defense.
86
Update Update
Foul committed by Pedro Santos of Arouca.
84
Attempt Attempt
Miguel Puche from Arouca had a missed chance, heading the ball from the center of the box but it went to the left. Tiago Esgaio provided the assist.
84
Attempt Attempt
Yanis Begraoui from Estoril missed a chance, shooting with his right foot from the left side of the box. Ricard Sánchez provided the assist.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arouca: Brian Mansilla replaces Taichi Fukui.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arouca: Pedro Santos replaces Barbero.
80
Update Update
Tiago Esgaio from Arouca commits a foul.
80
Update Update
Alejandro Marqués from Estoril won a free kick on the left wing.
78
Update Update
Jandro Orellana from Estoril won a free kick in defense.
78
Update Update
Foul committed by Lee Hyun-Ju of Arouca.
78
Update Update
Ricard Sánchez from Estoril won a free kick in defense.
78
Update Update
Foul committed by Barbero against Arouca.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Arouca: Miguel Puche replaces Pablo Gozálbez due to injury.
76
Update Update
Ricard Sánchez from Estoril misses a chance, shooting with his left foot from the left side of the box, sending the ball high and wide to the left. Alejandro Marqués provided the assist.
75
Update Update
Handball by Peixinho of Estoril.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Estoril: Peixinho replaces André Lacximicant.
73
Update Update
Fouled by Barbero of Arouca.
73
Attempt Attempt
Yanis Begraoui's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. The assist was provided by Pedro Carvalho.
73
Update Update
Pizzi from Estoril won a free kick in defense.
71
Update Update
Javi Sánchez from Arouca won a free kick in defense.
71
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
André Lacximicant of Estoril receives a yellow card for a foul.
68
Update Update
Foul committed by Lee Hyun-Ju of Arouca.
68
Update Update
Pedro Carvalho of Estoril won a free kick in defense.
66
Update Update
Foul committed by Alejandro Marqués of Estoril.
66
Update Update
Bas Kuipers from Arouca won a free kick in an attacking position.
66
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Arouca after a foul by Felix Bacher.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Estoril: Pedro Carvalho replaces Pedro Amaral.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Estoril: Alejandro Marqués replaces Xeka.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Estoril: Pizzi replaces João Carvalho due to injury.
62
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to João Carvalho from Estoril.
60
Corner Corner
Missed chance. Tiago Esgaio from Arouca shoots with his right foot from the center of the box, but it goes high after a corner.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Arouca after Antef Tsoungui concedes.
60
Attempt Attempt
Lee Hyun-Ju's left-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. Naïs Djouahra provided the assist.
57
Update Update
Foul committed by Xeka of Estoril.
57
Update Update
Lee Hyun-Ju from Arouca won a free kick in defense.
56
Update Update
Jordan Holsgrove from Estoril has been awarded a free kick in defense.
56
Update Update
Fouled by Espen van Ee of Arouca.
56
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Pablo Gozálbez of Arouca receives a yellow card for excessive celebration.
55
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Arouca 3, Estoril 2. Pablo Gozálbez scores for Arouca with a header from the center of the box into the left corner, assisted by Tiago Esgaio.
51
Update Update
João Carvalho from Estoril won a free kick in an attacking position.
51
Update Update
Antef Tsoungui of Estoril won a free kick in an attacking position.
51
Update Update
Tiago Esgaio from Arouca commits a foul.
51
Update Update
Barbero fouls Arouca.
50
Update Update
Lee Hyun-Ju from Arouca won a free kick in defense.
48
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Taichi Fukui from Arouca shoots with his right foot from outside the box, but it's high and wide to the right.
47
Update Update
Pedro Amaral of Estoril won a free kick in the defensive area.
47
Update Update
Pablo Gozálbez from Arouca won a free kick in an attacking position.
46
Update Update
Bas Kuipers of Arouca won a free kick in defense.
46
Update Update
Foul committed by Yanis Begraoui of Estoril.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 1 minute of added time.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Arouca 2, Estoril 2. José Fontán scores for Arouca with a header from close range to the top center of the goal, assisted by Barbero.
45
Update Update
Barbero from Arouca won a free kick in the attacking area.
45
Update Update
Jandro Orellana from Estoril committed a foul.
45
Attempt Attempt
André Lacximicant from Estoril misses a chance with a left-footed shot from the left side of the box.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Arouca and Estoril tied at 2-2.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the match tied at 2-2 between Arouca and Estoril.
42
Update Update
Lee Hyun-Ju from Arouca commits a handball.
40
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Barbero from Arouca headed the ball from the center of the box but missed. The assist came from Bas Kuipers with a cross.
38
Update Update
Foul committed by Xeka of Estoril.
38
Update Update
Taichi Fukui from Arouca won a free kick in the attacking area.
37
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. André Lacximicant from Estoril takes a left-footed shot from outside the box, but Ignacio de Arruabarrena from Arouca saves it in the right corner. The assist was provided by João Carvalho.
35
Update Update
André Lacximicant commits a handball for Estoril.
34
Update Update
André Lacximicant from Estoril commits a foul.
34
Update Update
Tiago Esgaio from Arouca won a free kick in defense.
32
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Estoril takes the lead 2-1 against Arouca. Yanis Begraoui scores with a right-footed shot from the right side of the box into the right corner, assisted by André Lacximicant's cross.
27
Update Update
João Carvalho from Estoril misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, but the ball goes high. The assist was provided by Jandro Orellana.
26
Update Update
Lee Hyun-Ju from Arouca won a free kick in defense.
23
Update Update
Lee Hyun-Ju from Arouca won a free kick in an attacking position.
23
Update Update
Jordan Holsgrove fouled an Estoril player.
23
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jordan Holsgrove from Estoril receives a yellow card for a foul.
21
Update Update
Fouled by Lee Hyun-Ju of Arouca.
21
Update Update
Xeka from Estoril won a free kick in defense.
20
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Barbero from Arouca heads the ball from the center of the box, but it's saved in the top center of the goal by Joel Robles from Estoril.
19
Corner Corner
Pablo Gozálbez from Arouca missed a chance with a right-footed shot from outside the box after a corner.
17
Corner Corner
Arouca is awarded a corner after Felix Bacher concedes.
14
Update Update
Lee Hyun-Ju from Arouca won a free kick on the left wing.
14
Update Update
Jandro Orellana from Estoril commits a foul.
13
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Arouca 1, Estoril 1. Barbero scores for Arouca with a left-footed shot from the center of the box into the right corner, assisted by Naïs Djouahra.
12
Update Update
Barbero from Arouca misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from close range but sending it high. The assist came from Naïs Djouahra, who provided the cross.
12
Update Update
Lee Hyun-Ju from Arouca won a free kick in defense.
12
Update Update
Jandro Orellana from Estoril commits a foul.
10
Update Update
José Fontán from Arouca commits a foul.
10
Update Update
Yanis Begraoui from Estoril won a free kick in defense.
9
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Estoril after a concession by José Fontán.
8
Corner Corner
Ricard Sánchez from Estoril misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, sending the ball high and wide to the right. The assist came from Jordan Holsgrove after a corner.
7
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Estoril after a foul by José Fontán.
3
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Estoril takes the lead 1-0 against Arouca. Xeka scores with a right-footed shot from outside the box into the right corner, assisted by João Carvalho.
2
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Estoril after Bas Kuipers concedes.
1
Update Update
Naïs Djouahra from Arouca won a free kick in defense.
1
Update Update
Foul committed by Jordan Holsgrove of Estoril.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Arouca exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.