Girona vs Villarreal Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Estadi Municipal de Montilivi Mon, 6 Apr - 7:00 PM
La Liga
Girona GIR
1 Winner 0
Villarreal VIL
Full Time Mon, 6 Apr 7:00 PM
Round 30 Regular Season
Pau Navarro - 45+1' (Own Goal)
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Girona and Villarreal has officially finished, with Girona securing a 1-0 victory at full-time. The hosts established their winning margin in the first half, taking a 1-0 lead into the break and holding firm until the final whistle. Girona controlled a slight majority of the play, finishing with 54% possession compared to Villarreal's 46%. Specific expected goals (xG) data was not available for this fixture, so it is impossible to state if the outcome aligned with the underlying chance quality. This result produced a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, favoring Girona. Villarreal entered the contest as the stronger side, carrying a 41.1% probability of winning according to the pre-match market. A draw was assessed at 26.3%, while a Girona victory was considered the less likely outcome at 32.6%. Because of this upset, the final result ultimately did not align with the pre-match market predictions. Despite the unexpected winner, the efficiency shift for the match remained in line with the run of play. The fixture was also completely disciplined; there were no red cards issued to either side, meaning early dismissals did not impact the final scoreline.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Girona showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Cordero Vega
A. Cordero Vega
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.82
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.71
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
J. Romano García
J. Romano García
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.82
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.71
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
I. Bárcena Rodríguez
I. Bárcena Rodríguez
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.82
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.71
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
O. Rivera Olmedo
O. Rivera Olmedo
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.82
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.71
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.25
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Girona M. Sánchez Muñoz
M. Sánchez Muñoz
VS
Villarreal M. García Toral
M. García Toral
1.33
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Osasuna Rank: 77 L
Athletic Club Rank: 79 W
Levante Rank: 72 D
Celta de Vigo Rank: 83 L
Deportivo Alavés Rank: 76 D
FC Barcelona Rank: 97 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Real Sociedad Rank: 81 W
Deportivo Alavés Rank: 74 D
Elche Rank: 73 W
FC Barcelona Rank: 97 L
Valencia Rank: 78 W
Levante Rank: 72 W
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 1 - 10
10

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Girona
32.63%
Draw
26.26%
Away Villarreal
41.11%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
76.29
82.91
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Girona
Villarreal
Power Score
76.29
82.91
League Position
14
3
Global Rank
88
43

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Girona — Opponent-weighted form score
Villarreal — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Girona Villarreal

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Girona

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Villarreal

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Girona ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Villarreal
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
25.00
25.65
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.65
25.00
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Girona -0.06 Efficiency Index
vs
Villarreal +0.06 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Girona
Villarreal
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Girona ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Villarreal
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Girona Villarreal
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Girona Villarreal
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Girona
Villarreal
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Girona
vs
Villarreal
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Girona Villarreal
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Girona 0.14
Villarreal 0.16
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Girona Villarreal
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Girona 0.00
Villarreal 0.01
Girona
Villarreal
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 15 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Girona GIR Home
15 matches
Villarreal VIL Away
Match Record
4
Wins
10
1
Draws
1
10
Losses
4
Goals
12
Goals Scored
24
24
Goals Conceded
12
-12
Goal Difference
+12
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-07T00:05:55+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
P. Gazzaniga
Argentina
13 P. Gazzaniga
A. Martinez
Substitution
Spain
4 A. Martinez
V. de Oliveira Nunes dos Reis
Brazil
12 V. de Oliveira Nunes dos Reis
D. Blind
Substitution
Netherlands
17 D. Blind
A. Moreno Lopera
Spain
24 A. Moreno Lopera
F. Beltrán Peinado
Spain
8 F. Beltrán Peinado
A. Witsel
Belgium
20 A. Witsel
V. Tsygankov
Ukraine
15 V. Tsygankov
I. Martín Núñez
Substitution
Spain
23 I. Martín Núñez
A. Ounahi
Substitution
Morocco
18 A. Ounahi
V. Vanat
Substitution
Ukraine
19 V. Vanat
L. Reis Júnior
Brazil
1 L. Reis Júnior
A. Pedraza Sag
Substitution
Spain
24 A. Pedraza Sag
R. Palma Veiga
Portugal
12 R. Palma Veiga
P. Navarro Badenes
Spain
6 P. Navarro Badenes
?. Mouriño González
Substitution
Uruguay
15 ?. Mouriño González
A. Moleiro González
Substitution
Spain
20 A. Moleiro González
P. Gueye
Senegal
18 P. Gueye
S. Comesaña Veiga
Spain
14 S. Comesaña Veiga
N. Pépé
Substitution
Ivory Coast
19 N. Pépé
G. Mikautadze
Georgia
9 G. Mikautadze
G. Moreno Balaguero
Spain
7 G. Moreno Balaguero

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 06, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadi Municipal de Montilivi
Capacity
14624
Attendance
12008
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Adrián Cordero Vega
Judit Romano García
Israel Bárcena Rodríguez
Olatz Rivera Olmedo

Statistics

Possession
GIR
54%
VIL
46%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 0
7 Shots 5
70 Dangerous attacks 56
54 Possession 46
7 Corners 4
9 Free kicks 8
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

15 Throwins 25
64 Successful Dribbles Percentage 53
5 Goal Kicks 7
25 Dribble Attempts 19
16 Successful Dribbles 10
5 Substitutions 4
8 Successful Headers 12
6 Goal Attempts 4
90 Ball Safe 85
4 Injuries 0

Attacking

124 Attacks 82
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

87 Successful Passes Percentage 84
447 Successful Passes 360
516 Passes 430
62 Long Passes 51
10 Key Passes 9
29 Successful Long Passes 28
47 Successful Long Passes Percentage 55

Defensive

47 Duels Won 45
6 Interceptions 6
15 Tackles 15
0 Saves 2

Build-up

18 Total Crosses 18
4 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

2 Offsides 1
8 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Adrián Cordero Vega

Starting XI ▼

13
Paulo Gazzaniga
Paulo Gazzaniga Goalkeeper
4
Arnau Martínez
Arnau Martínez Defender
2
Hugo Rincón
Hugo Rincón
Defender85'
12
Vitor Reis
Vitor Reis Defender
17
Daley Blind
Daley Blind Defender
16
Alejandro Francés
Alejandro Francés
Defender74'
24
Álex Moreno
Álex Moreno Defender
8
Fran Beltrán
Fran Beltrán Midfielder
15
Viktor Tsygankov
Viktor Tsygankov Midfielder
18
Azzedine Ounahi
Azzedine Ounahi Midfielder
3
Joel Roca
Joel Roca
Midfielder85'
20
Axel Witsel
Axel Witsel Midfielder
23
Iván Martín
Iván Martín Midfielder
11
Thomas Lemar
Thomas Lemar
Midfielder74'
19
Vladyslav Vanat
Vladyslav Vanat Attacker
9
Abel Ruiz
Abel Ruiz
Attacker12'
Referee : Adrián Cordero Vega

Starting XI ▼

1
Luiz Júnior
Luiz Júnior Goalkeeper
6
Pau Navarro
Pau Navarro Defender
12
Renato Veiga
Renato Veiga Defender
15
Santiago Mouriño
Santiago Mouriño Defender
3
Alex Freeman
Alex Freeman
Defender70'
24
Alfonso Pedraza
Alfonso Pedraza Defender
23
Sergi Cardona
Sergi Cardona
Defender80'
14
Santi Comesaña
Santi Comesaña Midfielder
18
Pape Gueye
Pape Gueye Midfielder
19
Nicolas Pépé
Nicolas Pépé Midfielder
17
Tajon Buchanan
Tajon Buchanan
Attacker70'
20
Alberto Moleiro
Alberto Moleiro Midfielder
11
Alfon González
Alfon González
Attacker70'
7
Gerard Moreno
Gerard Moreno Attacker
9
Georges Mikautadze
Georges Mikautadze Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Hugo Rincón → Arnau Martínez
8th Substitution
85'
Event
Joel Roca → Azzedine Ounahi
9th Substitution
85'
Event
Fran Beltrán
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
80'
80'
Event
Sergi Cardona → Alfonso Pedraza
7th Substitution
77'
Event
Alfonso Pedraza
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Thomas Lemar → Iván Martín
6th Substitution
74'
Event
Alejandro Francés → Daley Blind
5th Substitution
74'
70'
Event
Alex Freeman → Santiago Mouriño
3rd Substitution
70'
Event
Tajon Buchanan → Nicolas Pépé
2nd Substitution
70'
Event
Alfon González → Alberto Moleiro
4th Substitution
Event
Vitor Reis
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
53'
1ST-HALF
Event
Pau Navarro
Right foot shot / 1st Own Goal
45+1'
21'
Event
Santiago Mouriño
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Abel Ruiz → Vladyslav Vanat
1st Substitution
12'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Alexander Freeman from Villarreal had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, but the ball went high and wide to the right. Alfon González provided the assist.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 3 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Girona winning 1-0 against Villarreal.
89
Update Update
Gerard Moreno of Villarreal commits a handball.
88
Update Update
Hugo Rincón from Girona won a free kick in defense.
88
Update Update
Renato Veiga from Villarreal commits a foul.
86
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Girona after Alexander Freeman concedes.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Girona: Joel Roca replaces Azzedine Ounahi.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Girona: Hugo Rincón replaces Arnau Martínez.
84
Update Update
Foul committed by Santi Comesaña of Villarreal.
84
Update Update
Azzedine Ounahi from Girona won a free kick in defense.
80
Update Update
Santi Comesaña from Villarreal won a free kick in defense.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Villarreal: Sergi Cardona replaces Alfonso Pedraza.
80
Update Update
Foul committed by Fran Beltrán of Girona.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Fran Beltrán from Girona receives a yellow card for a foul.
79
Update Update
Foul committed by Fran Beltrán of Girona.
79
Update Update
Gerard Moreno from Villarreal won a free kick in defense.
77
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alfonso Pedraza of Villarreal receives a yellow card for a foul.
77
Update Update
Alfonso Pedraza from Villarreal committed a foul.
77
Update Update
Arnau Martínez from Girona won a free kick in defense.
76
Update Update
Tajon Buchanan from Villarreal misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, sending the ball high and wide to the right. The assist came from Alexander Freeman.
75
Attempt Attempt
Alfon González's shot for Villarreal from the center of the box is blocked. The assist came from Tajon Buchanan, who provided a cross.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Girona: Thomas Lemar replaces Iván Martín.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Girona: Alejandro Francés replaces Daley Blind due to injury.
73
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Daley Blind from Girona.
73
Update Update
Pape Gueye of Villarreal misses a chance, shooting with his left foot from outside the box but sending the ball high. Alfon González provided the assist.
73
Attempt Attempt
Gerard Moreno's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. The assist came from Alfonso Pedraza's cross.
72
Update Update
Foul committed by Vitor Reis of Girona.
72
Update Update
Álex Moreno from Girona misses a chance, shooting with his left foot from the left side of the box, sending the ball high. The assist was provided by Fran Beltrán.
72
Update Update
Georges Mikautadze of Villarreal won a free kick in an attacking position.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Villarreal: Tajon Buchanan replaces Nicolas Pépé.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Villarreal: Alfon González replaces Alberto Moleiro.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Villarreal: Alexander Freeman replaces Santiago Mouriño.
66
Attempt Attempt
Georges Mikautadze's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. The assist came from Pape Gueye's cross.
66
Corner Corner
Villarreal is awarded a corner after Daley Blind concedes.
62
Update Update
Pape Gueye of Villarreal won a free kick in defense.
62
Update Update
Fran Beltrán from Girona commits a foul.
61
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Arnau Martínez from Girona.
61
Update Update
Arnau Martínez's header from the center of the box is blocked. Viktor Tsygankov provided the assist with a cross.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Girona after Luiz Júnior concedes.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Girona after Luiz Júnior concedes.
59
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Abel Ruiz from Girona shoots with his left foot from the left side of the box, but Luiz Júnior from Villarreal saves it in the top left corner. The assist was provided by Azzedine Ounahi.
59
Attempt Attempt
Viktor Tsygankov's shot for Girona from the right side of the box is blocked. Azzedine Ounahi provided the assist.
59
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Girona after a concession by Luiz Júnior.
58
Update Update
Pape Gueye of Villarreal won a free kick in defense.
58
Update Update
Iván Martín from Girona committed a foul.
56
Corner Corner
Villarreal wins a corner after Daley Blind concedes.
55
Attempt Attempt
Abel Ruiz's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Arnau Martínez provided the assist.
55
Attempt Attempt
Azzedine Ounahi from Girona had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, but the ball went high. Axel Witsel provided the assist.
53
Update Update
Georges Mikautadze from Villarreal won a free kick in defense.
53
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Vitor Reis of Girona receives a yellow card for a foul.
53
Update Update
Foul committed by Vitor Reis of Girona.
50
Update Update
Álex Moreno of Girona won a free kick in defense.
50
Update Update
Foul committed by Santiago Mouriño of Villarreal.
50
Update Update
Axel Witsel from Girona won a free kick in defense.
50
Update Update
Foul committed by Santi Comesaña of Villarreal.
49
Corner Corner
Villarreal is awarded a corner after Vitor Reis concedes.
49
Attempt Attempt
Gerard Moreno's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. The assist came from Georges Mikautadze, who provided the cross.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 2 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Girona leading Villarreal 1-0.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Pau Navarro scores an own goal for Villarreal. The match stands at Girona 1, Villarreal 0.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with Girona leading Villarreal 1-0.
44
Attempt Attempt
Azzedine Ounahi's shot from outside the box with his right foot is blocked.
44
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Girona after Pau Navarro concedes.
43
Update Update
Foul committed by Álex Moreno of Girona.
43
Update Update
Gerard Moreno of Villarreal won a free kick in defense.
42
Update Update
Álex Moreno of Girona is flagged for offside.
40
Update Update
Abel Ruiz from Girona won a free kick in defense.
40
Update Update
Pau Navarro from Villarreal commits a foul.
36
Update Update
Santiago Mouriño of Villarreal won a free kick in defense.
36
Update Update
Santiago Mouriño of Villarreal won a free kick in defense.
31
Update Update
Foul committed by Alberto Moleiro of Villarreal.
31
Update Update
Arnau Martínez from Girona won a free kick on the right wing.
29
Corner Corner
Vitor Reis from Girona missed a header from the center of the box, sending the ball high over the goal. The assist came from Axel Witsel following a corner.
28
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Girona after a concession by Renato Veiga.
26
Update Update
Offside called against Villarreal. Gerard Moreno is offside.
22
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Azzedine Ounahi from Girona.
21
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Santiago Mouriño of Villarreal receives a yellow card for a foul.
20
Attempt Attempt
Gerard Moreno's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. Nicolas Pépé provided the assist.
20
Update Update
Axel Witsel of Girona won a free kick in defense.
20
Update Update
Foul committed by Santiago Mouriño of Villarreal.
19
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Girona after Alfonso Pedraza concedes.
18
Update Update
Abel Ruiz of Girona is called offside.
14
Attempt Attempt
Iván Martín's left-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. The assist came from Fran Beltrán.
12
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Girona: Abel Ruiz replaces Vladyslav Vanat due to injury.
11
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Vladyslav Vanat from Girona.
6
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Girona after Pape Gueye concedes.
4
Corner Corner
Villarreal is awarded a corner after Vitor Reis concedes.
3
Corner Corner
Villarreal wins a corner after Paulo Gazzaniga concedes.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Girona exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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