Casa Pia vs Benfica Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Liga Portugal
Benfica
SLB
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
CONTEXT
The match between Casa Pia and Benfica has finished, ending in a 1-1 draw. The teams went into the halftime break deadlocked at 0-0 before both eventually found the back of the net in the second half. This result represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations. The market heavily favored the stronger away side, Benfica, giving them a 78.6% probability of winning, while a draw carried only a 14.7% implied probability. Consequently, the final result was not aligned with the pre-match market. Benfica completely dominated the general flow of the game, holding a massive 78% of the possession compared to a mere 22% for the hosts, Casa Pia. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to determine if the 1-1 outcome was entirely consistent with the quality of scoring chances created. However, overall attacking efficiency was calculated to be in line with typical performance metrics. The fixture concluded without any red cards to alter the tactical dynamics, allowing both teams to finish with all eleven players on the pitch. Ultimately, Casa Pia executed a resilient game plan to frustrate the heavy favorites and secure an unlikely point.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: Benfica showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
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Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
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xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
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Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
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xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
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Event impact: No major event distortion.
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Red card distortion: None.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Casa Pia
Benfica
Team Power Ranking
i
63.65
86.68
Casa Pia
Benfica
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
Casa Pia
Benfica
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Casa Pia
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Casa Pia
⚠ Proxy
Casa Pia
Benfica
Casa Pia
Benfica
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
Casa Pia
Casa Pia
Benfica
Casa Pia
Benfica
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Match Record
Goals
Expected Goals
Data last updated: 2026-04-07T00:05:56+00:00
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General Information
Next Match
Casa Pia
vs
Alverca
League: Liga Portugal
Kickoff: Sun, 12 Apr - 2:30 PM
Venue: Away
Benfica
vs
Nacional
League: Liga Portugal
Kickoff: Sun, 12 Apr - 5:00 PM
Venue: Home
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
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Match Commentary