Casa Pia vs Benfica Prediction, Preview and Stats

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Estádio Pina Manique Mon, 6 Apr - 7:45 PM
Liga Portugal
Casa Pia CPAC
1 – 1
Benfica SLB
Full Time Mon, 6 Apr 7:45 PM
Round 28 Regular Season
Rafael Brito - 78'
Goal
|
Goal

CONTEXT

The match between Casa Pia and Benfica has finished, ending in a 1-1 draw. The teams went into the halftime break deadlocked at 0-0 before both eventually found the back of the net in the second half. This result represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations. The market heavily favored the stronger away side, Benfica, giving them a 78.6% probability of winning, while a draw carried only a 14.7% implied probability. Consequently, the final result was not aligned with the pre-match market. Benfica completely dominated the general flow of the game, holding a massive 78% of the possession compared to a mere 22% for the hosts, Casa Pia. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to determine if the 1-1 outcome was entirely consistent with the quality of scoring chances created. However, overall attacking efficiency was calculated to be in line with typical performance metrics. The fixture concluded without any red cards to alter the tactical dynamics, allowing both teams to finish with all eleven players on the pitch. Ultimately, Casa Pia executed a resilient game plan to frustrate the heavy favorites and secure an unlikely point.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Benfica showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

H. Carvalho

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

J. Graça Mira

1st Assistant

A. Pontes Ferreira

2nd Assistant

D. Rosa

4th Official

Casa Pia Á. Pacheco
Á. Pacheco
VS
Benfica José Mourinho
José Mourinho
0.89
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.47
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Estrela Amadora Rank: 58 L
Estoril Rank: 69 D
Moreirense Rank: 67 D
Famalicão Rank: 73 L
Arouca Rank: 65 W
Nacional Rank: 64 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Vitória Guimarães Rank: 71 W
Arouca Rank: 63 W
Porto Rank: 87 D
Gil Vicente Rank: 70 W
AVS Rank: 55 W
Santa Clara Rank: 66 W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 2 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Casa Pia
6.62%
Draw
14.74%
Away Benfica
78.64%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.65
86.68
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Casa Pia
Benfica
Power Score
63.65
86.68
League Position
16
3
Global Rank
353
24

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Casa Pia — Opponent-weighted form score
Benfica — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Casa Pia Benfica

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Casa Pia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Benfica

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Casa Pia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Benfica
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
42.05
27.88
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
27.88
42.05
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Casa Pia +1.39 Efficiency Index
vs
Benfica -1.39 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Casa Pia
Benfica
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Casa Pia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Benfica
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Casa Pia Benfica
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Casa Pia Benfica
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Casa Pia
Benfica
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Casa Pia
vs
Benfica
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Casa Pia Benfica
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Casa Pia 0.32
Benfica 0.24
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Casa Pia Benfica
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Casa Pia 0.01
Benfica 0.04
Casa Pia
Benfica
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Casa Pia CPAC Home
7 matches
Benfica SLB Away
Match Record
1
Wins
4
2
Draws
2
4
Losses
1
Goals
6
Goals Scored
12
12
Goals Conceded
6
-6
Goal Difference
+6

Data last updated: 2026-04-07T00:05:56+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
P. Sequeira Mejías
Costa Rica
1 P. Sequeira Mejías
J. Goulart Silva
Portugal
4 J. Goulart Silva
A. Geraldes de Barros
Portugal
18 A. Geraldes de Barros
David Sousa
Brazil
43 David Sousa
G. Larrazabal Goikoetxea
Spain
72 G. Larrazabal Goikoetxea
I. Mohamed
Comoros
24 I. Mohamed
R. Brito
Substitution
Portugal
8 R. Brito
P. Silva Rosas
Substitution
Portugal
75 P. Silva Rosas
J. Livolant
Substitution
France
29 J. Livolant
C. Dias Moreira
Substitution
Brazil
90 C. Dias Moreira
T. Fontoura Fonseca Morais
Substitution
Portugal
21 T. Fontoura Fonseca Morais
Pitch
A. Trubin
Ukraine
1 A. Trubin
S. Dahl
Sweden
26 S. Dahl
N. Otamendi
Argentina
30 N. Otamendi
A. Tavares Silva
Portugal
4 A. Tavares Silva
A. Hartmann Bah
Substitution
Denmark
6 A. Hartmann Bah
E. Barrenechea
Substitution
Argentina
5 E. Barrenechea
R. Rios
Colombia
20 R. Rios
A. Schjelderup
Norway
21 A. Schjelderup
R. Fernandes Ferreira da Silva
Substitution
Portugal
27 R. Fernandes Ferreira da Silva
D. Lukebakio
Substitution
Belgium
11 D. Lukebakio
V. Pavlidis
Greece
14 V. Pavlidis

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 06, 2026, 07:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 28 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estádio Pina Manique
Capacity :
7000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Hélder Carvalho
José Manuel Graça Mira
Alexandre Pontes Ferreira
Diogo Rosa

Statistics

Possession
CPAC
28%
SLB
72%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 4
3 Shots 6
25 Dangerous attacks 75
22 Possession 78
3 Corners 12
10 Free kicks 19
1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

21 Successful Headers 20
18 Throwins 27
10 Dribble Attempts 13
2 Successful Dribbles 8
20 Successful Dribbles Percentage 62
12 Goal Kicks 2
0 Hit Woodwork 1
5 Substitutions 4
71 Ball Safe 97
2 Injuries 1
2 Goal Attempts 11
0 Assists 1

Attacking

69 Attacks 133
2 Counter Attacks 2
1 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

45 Successful Passes Percentage 86
3 Key Passes 14
164 Passes 605
55 Long Passes 36
73 Successful Passes 522
33 Successful Long Passes Percentage 50
18 Successful Long Passes 18

Defensive

12 Tackles 14
44 Duels Won 61
2 Saves 1
11 Interceptions 5

Build-up

10 Total Crosses 28
0 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

19 Fouls 10
0 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Hélder Carvalho

Starting XI ▼

1
Patrick Sequeira
Patrick Sequeira Goalkeeper
4
João Goulart
João Goulart Defender
18
André Geraldes
André Geraldes Defender
43
David Sousa
David Sousa Defender
8
Rafael Brito
Rafael Brito Midfielder
11
João Marques
João Marques
Midfielder87'
24
Iyad Mohamed
Iyad Mohamed Midfielder
72
Gaizka Larrazabal
Gaizka Larrazabal Midfielder
75
Pedro Rosas
Pedro Rosas Midfielder
5
Abdu Conté
Abdu Conté
Defender87'
21
Tiago Morais
Tiago Morais Attacker
13
Korede Osundina
Korede Osundina
Attacker46'
29
Jérémy Livolant
Jérémy Livolant Attacker
7
Kelian Nsona
Kelian Nsona
Attacker90+3'
90
Cassiano
Cassiano Attacker
99
Clau Mendes
Clau Mendes
Attacker70'
Referee : Hélder Carvalho

Starting XI ▼

1
Anatoliy Trubin
Anatoliy Trubin Goalkeeper
4
António Silva
António Silva Defender
6
Alexander Bah
Alexander Bah Defender
9
Franjo Ivanović
Franjo Ivanović
Attacker81'
26
Samuel Dahl
Samuel Dahl Defender
30
Nicolás Otamendi
Nicolás Otamendi Defender
5
Enzo Barrenechea
Enzo Barrenechea Midfielder
72
Anísio
Anísio
Attacker81'
11
Dodi Lukébakio
Dodi Lukébakio Midfielder
25
Gianluca Prestianni
Gianluca Prestianni
Attacker58'
20
Richard Ríos
Richard Ríos Midfielder
21
Andreas Schjelderup
Andreas Schjelderup Midfielder
27
Rafa Silva
Rafa Silva Midfielder
10
Georgiy Sudakov
Georgiy Sudakov
Midfielder70'
14
Vangelis Pavlidis
Vangelis Pavlidis Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Kelian Nsona → Jérémy Livolant
9th Substitution
90+3'
Event
Abdu Conté → Pedro Rosas
7th Substitution
87'
Event
João Marques → Rafael Brito
8th Substitution
87'
Event
Patrick Sequeira
Time wasting / 1st Yellowcard
85'
81'
Event
Anísio → Enzo Barrenechea
5th Substitution
81'
Event
Franjo Ivanović → Alexander Bah
6th Substitution
Event
Rafael Brito
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
78'
Event
Clau Mendes → Cassiano
3rd Substitution
70'
70'
Event
Georgiy Sudakov → Rafa Silva
4th Substitution
68'
Event
Richard Ríos
Header / 1st Goal
58'
Event
Gianluca Prestianni → Dodi Lukébakio
2nd Substitution
Event
Korede Osundina → Tiago Morais
1st Substitution
46'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 6 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
Anísio Cabral from Benfica commits a foul.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Abdu Conté of Casa Pia.
90
Update Update
Anísio Cabral from Benfica committed a foul.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Casa Pia: Kelian Nsona replaces Jérémy Livolant.
90
Update Update
Nicolás Otamendi from Benfica has won a free kick in defense.
90
Attempt Attempt
Nicolás Otamendi's shot from the center of the box is blocked.
90
Update Update
Gianluca Prestianni from Benfica was awarded a free kick on the right wing.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with the score at Casa Pia 1, Benfica 1.
90
Update Update
João Marques of Casa Pia won a free kick in defense.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Heorhii Sudakov of Benfica.
89
Update Update
Offside called against Benfica. Vangelis Pavlidis is offside.
88
Update Update
Richard Ríos of Benfica won a free kick in defense.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Casa Pia: João Marques replaces Rafael Brito due to injury.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Casa Pia: Abdu Conté replaces Pedro Rosas.
86
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Rafael Brito from Casa Pia.
85
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Patrick Sequeira from Casa Pia receives a yellow card.
84
Attempt Attempt
Anísio Cabral from Benfica missed a chance with a left-footed shot from the center of the box.
83
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Casa Pia after Nicolás Otamendi concedes.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Benfica: Franjo Ivanovic replaces Alexander Bah.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Benfica: Anísio Cabral replaces Enzo Barrenechea.
80
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Gaizka Larrazabal of Casa Pia.
80
Attempt Attempt
Andreas Schjelderup from Benfica missed a chance with a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
78
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Rafael Brito scores for Casa Pia with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the right corner. The match is now 1-1 against Benfica.
77
Corner Corner
Missed chance. Heorhii Sudakov from Benfica shoots with his right foot from outside the box, but the ball goes high after a corner.
76
Corner Corner
Benfica wins a corner after David Sousa concedes.
76
Corner Corner
Benfica is awarded a corner after Jérémy Livolant concedes.
76
Attempt Attempt
Heorhii Sudakov's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Gianluca Prestianni provided the assist.
74
Update Update
Alexander Bah of Benfica won a free kick on the right wing.
73
Update Update
Vangelis Pavlidis from Benfica won a free kick on the right wing.
73
Update Update
André Geraldes from Casa Pia committed a foul.
71
Update Update
Foul committed by Gaizka Larrazabal of Casa Pia.
71
Update Update
Andreas Schjelderup of Benfica won a free kick in defense.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Benfica: Heorhii Sudakov replaces Rafa.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Casa Pia: Clau Mendes replaces Cassiano.
68
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Benfica takes the lead 1-0 with Richard Ríos scoring from close range with a header into the right corner, assisted by Andreas Schjelderup's header.
65
Update Update
Foul committed by Gaizka Larrazabal of Casa Pia.
65
Update Update
Samuel Dahl of Benfica won a free kick in defense.
63
Attempt Attempt
Pedro Rosas from Casa Pia had a missed chance, heading the ball from the center of the box just wide of the goal.
63
Attempt Attempt
Cassiano's shot for Casa Pia from the center of the box is blocked. The assist came from David Sousa, who headed the ball.
62
Update Update
Cassiano from Casa Pia won a free kick in an attacking position.
62
Update Update
Enzo Barrenechea from Benfica committed a foul.
61
Corner Corner
Benfica wins a corner after David Sousa concedes.
60
Corner Corner
Benfica wins a corner after André Geraldes concedes.
58
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Benfica: Gianluca Prestianni replaces Dodi Lukébakio.
57
Update Update
Rafael Brito from Casa Pia won a free kick on the left wing.
54
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Rafael Brito from Casa Pia.
54
Corner Corner
Benfica is awarded a corner after Gaizka Larrazabal concedes it.
53
Update Update
Richard Ríos from Benfica won a free kick in defense.
53
Update Update
Foul committed by Korede Osundina of Casa Pia.
52
Update Update
António Silva from Benfica commits a foul.
52
Update Update
Pedro Rosas from Casa Pia won a free kick in defense.
51
Corner Corner
Benfica is awarded a corner after André Geraldes concedes.
51
Attempt Attempt
Andreas Schjelderup's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Samuel Dahl provided the assist.
50
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Gaizka Larrazabal from Casa Pia shot with his right foot from the right side of the box.
48
Attempt Attempt
Rafa from Benfica had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from the right side of the box, but it went just to the left. The assist was provided by Alexander Bah.
47
Update Update
Foul committed by Jérémy Livolant against Casa Pia.
47
Update Update
Enzo Barrenechea from Benfica won a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Casa Pia and Benfica tied at 0-0.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Casa Pia after Enzo Barrenechea concedes.
45
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Tiago Morais from Casa Pia shot with his right foot from the left side of the box but missed.
45
Update Update
The second half starts with the match score at 0-0.
45
Update Update
Rafael Brito from Casa Pia won a free kick in an attacking position.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Enzo Barrenechea of Benfica.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 4 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Patrick Sequeira from Casa Pia.
45
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to António Silva from Benfica.
45
Update Update
Jérémy Livolant from Casa Pia won a free kick in the attacking area.
45
Update Update
Enzo Barrenechea from Benfica commits a foul.
45
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Pedro Rosas from Casa Pia takes a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but it's saved by Benfica's goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin, with the assist from Tiago Morais.
45
Update Update
Andreas Schjelderup from Benfica misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from the left side of the box, just missing the goal.
45
Attempt Attempt
Dodi Lukébakio's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. Rafa provided the assist.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Casa Pia: Korede Osundina replaces Tiago Morais.
44
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Vangelis Pavlidis of Benfica takes a right-footed shot from inside the six-yard box, but it's saved in the top center of the goal by Patrick Sequeira of Casa Pia. The assist comes from Alexander Bah.
44
Update Update
António Silva from Benfica commits a foul.
44
Update Update
Patrick Sequeira from Casa Pia won a free kick in defense.
44
Corner Corner
Benfica wins a corner after Iyad Mohamed concedes.
44
Attempt Attempt
Alexander Bah's shot for Benfica from the center of the box is blocked. António Silva provided the assist.
43
Update Update
Enzo Barrenechea from Benfica won a free kick in defense.
43
Update Update
Alexander Bah from Benfica won a free kick on the right wing.
43
Update Update
Foul committed by Tiago Morais of Casa Pia.
42
Update Update
Offside called against Benfica. Vangelis Pavlidis is offside.
40
Attempt Attempt
Vangelis Pavlidis of Benfica missed a header from a few meters out, shooting to the left. The assist came from Andreas Schjelderup's cross.
37
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Dodi Lukébakio from Benfica shot with his right foot from the center of the box but missed to the left.
36
Update Update
Nicolás Otamendi of Benfica won a free kick in defense.
35
Update Update
Dodi Lukébakio of Benfica misses a chance, shooting with his left foot from outside the box, but the ball goes high. The assist was provided by Vangelis Pavlidis.
34
Corner Corner
Benfica is awarded a corner after André Geraldes concedes.
33
Corner Corner
Benfica is awarded a corner after André Geraldes concedes.
31
Attempt Attempt
Tiago Morais from Casa Pia has his left-footed shot from the left side of the box blocked.
30
Update Update
Foul committed by Samuel Dahl of Benfica.
30
Update Update
Jérémy Livolant of Casa Pia won a free kick on the right wing.
29
Update Update
Rafa from Benfica won a free kick in defense.
28
Update Update
Vangelis Pavlidis of Benfica won a free kick in defense.
28
Update Update
Foul committed by David Sousa of Casa Pia.
26
Update Update
Cassiano from Casa Pia won a free kick in defense.
26
Update Update
António Silva from Benfica committed a foul.
25
Corner Corner
Benfica is awarded a corner after David Sousa concedes.
23
Update Update
Enzo Barrenechea from Benfica won a free kick in defense.
19
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Richard Ríos of Benfica.
18
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Richard Ríos takes a right-footed shot from outside the box after a free kick, but it goes high.
17
Update Update
Iyad Mohamed from Casa Pia committed a foul.
17
Update Update
Vangelis Pavlidis of Benfica won a free kick in an attacking position.
14
Corner Corner
Benfica wins a corner after João Goulart concedes.
14
Update Update
Fouled by Pedro Rosas of Casa Pia.
14
Attempt Attempt
Andreas Schjelderup's left-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. Rafa provided the assist.
14
Update Update
Dodi Lukébakio from Benfica won a free kick in the attacking area.
13
Update Update
Vangelis Pavlidis of Benfica won a free kick in the attacking area.
9
Corner Corner
Benfica wins a corner after Patrick Sequeira concedes.
9
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Richard Ríos of Benfica shoots with his right foot from outside the box, but Patrick Sequeira of Casa Pia saves it in the right corner. The assist came from Samuel Dahl.
4
Update Update
Vangelis Pavlidis of Benfica won a free kick in defense.
3
Attempt Attempt
Tiago Morais from Casa Pia has a shot blocked. He attempted a right-footed shot from outside the box, assisted by Pedro Rosas.
2
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Casa Pia after Enzo Barrenechea concedes.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Benfica exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.