Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor Prediction, Preview and Stats

Turkey flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey
Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı (İstanbul) Sun, 5 Apr - 11:30 AM
Super Lig
Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük
2 Winner 1
Rizespor Rizespor
Full Time Sun, 5 Apr 11:30 AM
Round 28 Regular Season
Shavy Babicka - 87'
Serginho - 39'
Goal
|
Goal
Ali Sowe - 70'

CONTEXT

The match between Fatih Karagümrük and Rizespor has finished with a 2-1 victory for the home side. Fatih Karagümrük established an early foothold, going into the halftime break with a 1-0 lead before ultimately securing the full-time win against the visitors. This result represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations. Rizespor entered the contest as the stronger team and market favorites with a 40.2% probability of winning, compared to Fatih Karagümrük's 32.6% chance and a 27.2% probability of a draw. Consequently, the final outcome did not align with the pre-match market, providing a major upset for the home side. Despite suffering the defeat, Rizespor controlled the tempo, finishing the game with 63% possession while the hosts managed just 37% of the ball. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to determine if the final scoreline aligned with the underlying chance creation. However, the overall efficiency shift for the match was in line with standard expectations. The flow of the game was unaffected by major disciplinary actions, as the match concluded with zero red cards for either side.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Fatih Karagümrük showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

Y. Arslan

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Şen

4th Official

S. Çiçek

1st Assistant

C. Elbil

2nd Assistant

Fatih Karagümrük A. Stanojević
A. Stanojević
VS
Rizespor R. Uçar
R. Uçar
0.7
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.16
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kayserispor Rank: 63 L
Fenerbahçe Rank: 85 W
Gaziantep F.K. Rank: 66 D
Trabzonspor Rank: 80 L
Samsunspor Rank: 71 D
Kasımpaşa Rank: 65 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Trabzonspor Rank: 79 L
Antalyaspor Rank: 61 W
Kasımpaşa Rank: 65 W
Kocaelispor Rank: 64 W
Gençlerbirliği Rank: 64 D
Galatasaray Rank: 88 L
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 2 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Fatih Karagümrük
32.55%
Draw
27.23%
Away Rizespor
40.22%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
55.29
67.22
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Fatih Karagümrük
Rizespor
Power Score
55.29
67.22
League Position
18
12
Global Rank
387
255

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Fatih Karagümrük — Opponent-weighted form score
Rizespor — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Fatih Karagümrük Rizespor

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Fatih Karagümrük

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Rizespor

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Fatih Karagümrük ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rizespor
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.54
20.24
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.24
30.54
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Fatih Karagümrük +1.04 Efficiency Index
vs
Rizespor -1.04 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Fatih Karagümrük
Rizespor
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Fatih Karagümrük ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rizespor
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Fatih Karagümrük Rizespor
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Fatih Karagümrük Rizespor
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Fatih Karagümrük
Rizespor
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Fatih Karagümrük
vs
Rizespor
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Fatih Karagümrük Rizespor
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Fatih Karagümrük 0.38
Rizespor 0.31
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Fatih Karagümrük Rizespor
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Fatih Karagümrük 0.03
Rizespor 0.08
Fatih Karagümrük
Rizespor
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük Home
7 matches
Rizespor Rizespor Away
Match Record
3
Wins
2
2
Draws
2
2
Losses
3
Goals
8
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
8
+5
Goal Difference
-5

Data last updated: 2026-04-06T00:01:37+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
I. Grbić
Croatia
13 I. Grbić
R. Sousa Esgaio
Portugal
47 R. Sousa Esgaio
D. Biraschi
Italy
4 D. Biraschi
I. Lichnovsky Osorio
Chile
3 I. Lichnovsky Osorio
Ç. Kurukalıp
Substitution
Turkey
33 Ç. Kurukalıp
D. Verde
Substitution
Italy
10 D. Verde
B. Elmaz
Turkey
6 B. Elmaz
B. Özcan
Turkey
8 B. Özcan
W. Shavy
Gabon
80 W. Shavy
S. Da Luiz Junior
Substitution
Brazil
70 S. Da Luiz Junior
S. Larsson
Substitution
Sweden
23 S. Larsson
Pitch
Y. Fofana
France
75 Y. Fofana
C. Højer Nielsen
Substitution
Denmark
5 C. Højer Nielsen
M. Sagnan
France
27 M. Sagnan
S. Akaydin
Turkey
3 S. Akaydin
M. Pala
Turkey
54 M. Pala
T. Antalyalı
Substitution
Turkey
14 T. Antalyalı
V. Mihăilă
Romania
7 V. Mihăilă
Q. Laçi
Albania
20 Q. Laçi
I. Olawoyin
Substitution
Nigeria
10 I. Olawoyin
L. António Augusto
Substitution
Angola
50 L. António Augusto
İ. Dervişoğlu
Substitution
Turkey
11 İ. Dervişoğlu

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 05, 2026, 11:30 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey · Round 28 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı (İstanbul)
Capacity :
76092
Pitch Surface :
N/A
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Alpaslan Şen
Yiğit Arslan
Samet Çiçek
Candaş Elbil

Statistics

Possession
Fatih Karagümrük
41%
Rizespor
59%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 2
2 Shots 1
26 Dangerous attacks 35
37 Possession 63
0 Corners 3
21 Free kicks 15
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

4 Substitutions 5
7 Goal Attempts 8
2 Assists 0
76 Ball Safe 89
18 Dribble Attempts 16
9 Successful Dribbles 7
11 Throwins 16
0 Hit Woodwork 1
10 Successful Headers 14
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 44
13 Goal Kicks 5
2 Injuries 0

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 1
75 Attacks 109

Possession

16 Successful Long Passes 31
29 Successful Long Passes Percentage 55
330 Passes 558
7 Key Passes 7
55 Long Passes 56
251 Successful Passes 475
76 Successful Passes Percentage 85

Defensive

1 Saves 3
17 Interceptions 10
18 Tackles 18
53 Duels Won 53

Build-up

0 Accurate Crosses 4
5 Total Crosses 19

Discipline

15 Fouls 21
3 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Yiğit Arslan

Starting XI ▼

13
Ivo Grbic
Ivo Grbic Goalkeeper
3
Igor Lichnovsky
Igor Lichnovsky Defender
4
Davide Biraschi
Davide Biraschi Defender
33
Çağtay Kurukalıp
Çağtay Kurukalıp Defender
32
Muhammed Kadıoğlu
Muhammed Kadıoğlu
Defender86'
47
Ricardo Esgaio
Ricardo Esgaio Defender
6
Bartuğ Elmaz
Bartuğ Elmaz Midfielder
8
Berkay Özcan
Berkay Özcan Midfielder
10
Daniele Verde
Daniele Verde Midfielder
21
Tiago Çukur
Tiago Çukur
Attacker69'
80
Shavy Babicka
Shavy Babicka Midfielder
23
Sam Larsson
Sam Larsson Attacker
88
Ahmed Traore
Ahmed Traore
Attacker86'
70
Serginho
Serginho Attacker
72
Barış Kalaycı
Barış Kalaycı
Attacker76'
Referee : Yiğit Arslan

Starting XI ▼

75
Yahia Fofana
Yahia Fofana Goalkeeper
3
Samet Akaydin
Samet Akaydin Defender
5
Casper Højer
Casper Højer Defender
99
Emrecan Bulut
Emrecan Bulut
Attacker90+1'
27
Modibo Sagnan
Modibo Sagnan Defender
54
Mithat Pala
Mithat Pala Defender
7
Valentin Mihăilă
Valentin Mihăilă Midfielder
10
Ibrahim Olawoyin
Ibrahim Olawoyin Midfielder
9
Ali Sowe
Ali Sowe
Attacker60'
14
T. Antalyalı
T. Antalyalı Midfielder
6
Giannis Papanikolaou
Giannis Papanikolaou
Midfielder73'
20
Qazim Laci
Qazim Laci Midfielder
50
Loide Augusto
Loide Augusto Midfielder
77
Altin Zeqiri
Altin Zeqiri
Midfielder73'
11
Halil Dervişoğlu
Halil Dervişoğlu Attacker
19
Frantzdy Pierrot
Frantzdy Pierrot
Attacker90+1'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Aleksandar Stanojević
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
90+2'
90+1'
Event
Emrecan Bulut → Casper Højer
8th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Frantzdy Pierrot → Halil Dervişoğlu
9th Substitution
Event
Shavy Babicka
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
87'
Event
Muhammed Kadıoğlu → Çağtay Kurukalıp
6th Substitution
86'
Event
Ahmed Traore → Sam Larsson
7th Substitution
86'
Event
Çağtay Kurukalıp
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
78'
Event
Barış Kalaycı → Serginho
5th Substitution
76'
74'
Event
Casper Højer
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
73'
Event
Giannis Papanikolaou → T. Antalyalı
3rd Substitution
73'
Event
Altin Zeqiri → Loide Augusto
4th Substitution
70'
Event
Ali Sowe
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Tiago Çukur → Daniele Verde
2nd Substitution
69'
60'
Event
Ali Sowe → Ibrahim Olawoyin
1st Substitution
58'
Event
Samet Akaydin
Handball / 1st Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Serginho
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
39'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Fatih Karagümrük exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Fatih Karagümrük vs Rizespor preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Author

Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.