AIK vs Halmstad Prediction, Preview and Stats

Sweden flag 2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden
Strawberry Arena Sun, 5 Apr - 12:00 PM
Allsvenskan
AIK AIK
2 Winner 1
Halmstad HAL
Full Time Sun, 5 Apr 12:00 PM
Round 1 Regular Season
Z. Yohanna - 83'
Ibrahim Cissé - 21'
Goal
|
Goal

CONTEXT

The match between AIK and Halmstad has officially finished, with AIK securing a 2-1 victory at full-time after holding a narrow 1-0 advantage at the half. Heading into the fixture, AIK were established as the clear favorites with a 63.7% pre-match win probability. The likelihood of a draw sat at 21.2%, while a Halmstad away upset was given just a 15.1% chance. Ultimately, the home win meant the final outcome aligned perfectly with the pre-match market expectations. Securing this victory required AIK to play through a significant deviation level of 36.3% to claim the result. On the pitch, AIK managed to control the general tempo of the game, commanding 56% of the possession compared to Halmstad's 44%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to determine if the final scoreline was strictly consistent with the underlying chances created. However, the match's overall efficiency shift was entirely in line with expectations. Furthermore, the game flowed without any major disciplinary disruptions, as zero red cards were issued to either side.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: AIK showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Ladebäck

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Sjöberg

2nd Assistant

D. Yng

1st Assistant

F. Ben Ahmed Nehdi

4th Official

AIK J. Riveiro
J. Riveiro
VS
Halmstad J. Lindholm
J. Lindholm
0.8
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.75
0.8 i
Last 6 Opponents
Halmstad Rank: 48 L
Elfsborg Rank: 55 W
Häcken Rank: 57 D
Hammarby Rank: 69 L
Värnamo Rank: 43 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.75 i
Last 6 Opponents
AIK Rank: 58 W
Brommapojkarna Rank: 48 D
IFK Göteborg Rank: 58 L
Degerfors Rank: 45 W
14
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
14 - 6 - 8
8

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home AIK
63.73%
Draw
21.15%
Away Halmstad
15.12%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
58.18
48.06
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
AIK
Halmstad
Power Score
58.18
48.06
League Position
3
13
Global Rank
530
798

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
AIK — Opponent-weighted form score
Halmstad — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) AIK Halmstad

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

AIK

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Halmstad

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

AIK ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Halmstad
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
50.36
28.75
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.75
50.36
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
AIK +2.24 Efficiency Index
vs
Halmstad -2.24 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
AIK
Halmstad
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

AIK ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Halmstad
Created Set-piece attacking threat
AIK Halmstad
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
AIK Halmstad
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
AIK
Halmstad
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
AIK
vs
Halmstad
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
AIK Halmstad
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
AIK 0.39
Halmstad 0.33
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
AIK Halmstad
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
AIK 0.03
Halmstad 0.03
AIK
Halmstad
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 28 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

AIK AIK Home
28 matches
Halmstad HAL Away
Match Record
14
Wins
8
6
Draws
6
8
Losses
14
Goals
45
Goals Scored
30
30
Goals Conceded
45
+15
Goal Difference
-15

Data last updated: 2026-04-06T00:02:09+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
K. Nordfeldt
Sweden
15 K. Nordfeldt
C. Pavey
Substitution
12 C. Pavey
A. Csongvai
Hungary
33 A. Csongvai
I. Cissé
Ivory Coast
25 I. Cissé
S. Wilson
Substitution
Kenya
21 S. Wilson
D. Beširović
Bosnia and Herzegovina
19 D. Beširović
A. Mujanic
Substitution
Sweden
7 A. Mujanic
Zadok Yohanna
36 Zadok Yohanna
J. Hove
Norway
8 J. Hove
B. Celina
Substitution
Kosovo
10 B. Celina
T. Ayari
Substitution
Sweden
45 T. Ayari

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 05, 2026, 12:00 PM
Competition :
2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden · Round 1 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Strawberry Arena
Capacity :
54000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Adam Ladebäck
Anton Sjöberg
Daniel Yng
Farouk Ben Ahmed Nehdi

Statistics

Possession
AIK
57%
HAL
43%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
4 Big Chances Created 2
4 Shots 0
64 Dangerous attacks 33
56 Possession 44
2 Corners 3
14 Free kicks 11
3 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

2 Goal Kicks 10
1 Assists 1
5 Substitutions 3
8 Goal Attempts 4
46 Ball Safe 59
26 Dribble Attempts 15
16 Successful Dribbles 4
3 Hit Woodwork 0
62 Successful Dribbles Percentage 27
24 Throwins 13

Attacking

4 Big Chances Missed 2
110 Attacks 80

Possession

18 Successful Long Passes 24
50 Successful Long Passes Percentage 45
412 Successful Passes 307
84 Successful Passes Percentage 82
36 Long Passes 53
16 Key Passes 9
491 Passes 374

Defensive

11 Interceptions 13
20 Tackles 17
6 Saves 4
60 Duels Won 38

Build-up

6 Accurate Crosses 5
11 Total Crosses 11

Discipline

1 Offsides 1
11 Fouls 14

Lineup

Referee : Adam Ladebäck

Starting XI ▼

15
Kristoffer Nordfeldt
Kristoffer Nordfeldt Goalkeeper
12
Charlie Pavey
Charlie Pavey Defender
5
Lukas Bergquist
Lukas Bergquist
Defender69'
21
Stanley Wilson
Stanley Wilson Defender
4
Sotirios Papagiannopoulos
Sotirios Papagiannopoulos
Defender90+3'
25
Ibrahim Cissé
Ibrahim Cissé Defender
33
Áron Csongvai
Áron Csongvai Defender
7
Amel Mujanic
Amel Mujanic Midfielder
48
Axel Kouame
Axel Kouame
Midfielder79'
8
Johan Hove
Johan Hove Midfielder
10
Bersant Celina
Bersant Celina Midfielder
11
Victor Gonçalves Andersson
Victor Gonçalves Andersson
Midfielder79'
19
Dino Besirovic
Dino Besirovic Midfielder
36
Z. Yohanna
Z. Yohanna Midfielder
45
Taha Ayari
Taha Ayari Attacker
29
Kevin Filling
Kevin Filling
Attacker70'
Referee : Adam Ladebäck

Starting XI ▼

1
Tim Rönning
Tim Rönning Goalkeeper
3
Gabriel Wallentin
Gabriel Wallentin Defender
16
Erko Tougjas
Erko Tougjas Defender
17
André Boman
André Boman Defender
24
Rami Kaib
Rami Kaib Defender
6
Joel Allansson
Joel Allansson Midfielder
14
Hussein Carneil
Hussein Carneil Midfielder
99
Emmanuel Yeboah
Emmanuel Yeboah
Attacker73'
19
Marvin Illary
Marvin Illary Midfielder
20
Otso Liimatta
Otso Liimatta
Midfielder55'
22
Oliver Kapsimalis
Oliver Kapsimalis Midfielder
27
Rocco Ascone
Rocco Ascone Midfielder
18
Malte Persson
Malte Persson Attacker
9
Omar Faraj
Omar Faraj
Attacker81'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Sotirios Papagiannopoulos → Stanley Wilson
8th Substitution
90+3'
Event
Z. Yohanna
4th Yellowcard
83'
Event
Z. Yohanna
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
83'
81'
Event
Omar Faraj → Malte Persson
7th Substitution
Event
Victor Gonçalves Andersson → Bersant Celina
5th Substitution
79'
Event
Axel Kouame → Amel Mujanic
6th Substitution
79'
73'
Event
Emmanuel Yeboah → Hussein Carneil
4th Substitution
Event
Kevin Filling → Taha Ayari
3rd Substitution
70'
Event
Lukas Bergquist → Charlie Pavey
2nd Substitution
69'
Event
Kristoffer Nordfeldt
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
64'
64'
Event
Otso Liimatta
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Charlie Pavey
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
63'
Event
5th Yellowcard
63'
55'
Event
Otso Liimatta → Marvin Illary
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Ibrahim Cissé
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
21'
15'
Event
Rami Kaib
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: AIK exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

AIK vs Halmstad preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Author

Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.