LASK Linz vs Austria Wien Prediction, Preview and Stats

Austria flag 2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
Raiffeisen Arena Sun, 5 Apr - 12:30 PM
Admiral Bundesliga
LASK Linz ASK
4 Winner 1
Austria Wien FAK
Full Time Sun, 5 Apr 12:30 PM
Round 3 Championship Round
Modou Kéba Cissé - 4'
Kasper Jørgensen - 12'
Moses Usor - 13'
Sasa Kalajdzic - 32'
Goal
|
Goal
Tae-seok Lee - 16'
|
Red Card Tin Plavotic 11'

CONTEXT

The match has concluded with LASK Linz securing a commanding 4-1 victory over Austria Wien. The game was effectively decided early, as all five goals were scored in an action-packed first half, making it 4-1 at the break. Entering the fixture, LASK Linz were the favorites with a 45.4% implied probability of winning, compared to a 27.3% chance for both an away win and a draw. Since the stronger team won, the result aligned perfectly with the pre-match market. However, the dominant margin yielded a significant performance deviation in favor of LASK Linz. LASK Linz completely controlled the flow of the game, holding a massive 74% possession while restricting the visitors to just 26%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this match, meaning we cannot accurately assess if the final scoreline aligned with underlying chance quality. Austria Wien’s struggles were severely compounded by disciplinary issues, as they received a red card. Playing with ten men created a noticeable red card distortion in the second half, stifling any chance of a comeback. Despite the lack of xG metrics, the overall efficiency shift was in line with expectations, as the home side utilized their numerical superiority to comfortably seal the win.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: LASK Linz showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
J. Semler
J. Semler
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.23
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.4
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.37
A. Borucki
A. Borucki
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.23
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.4
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.37
A. Harkam
A. Harkam
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.23
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.4
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.37
M. Kolbitsch
M. Kolbitsch
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.23
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.4
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.37
LASK Linz D. Kühbauer
D. Kühbauer
VS
Austria Wien S. Helm
S. Helm
2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.73
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
SK Rapid Rank: 60 L
Hartberg Rank: 59 D
Wolfsberger AC Rank: 59 W
Austria Wien Rank: 65 D
Salzburg Rank: 69 L
Ried Rank: 52 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hartberg Rank: 60 W
Sturm Graz Rank: 67 L
Ried Rank: 52 W
LASK Linz Rank: 65 D
Rheindorf Altach Rank: 53 L
SK Rapid Rank: 60 W
15
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
15 - 11 - 14
14

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home LASK Linz
45.39%
Draw
27.3%
Away Austria Wien
27.3%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
64.92
64.62
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
LASK Linz
Austria Wien
Power Score
64.92
64.62
League Position
4
5
Global Rank
315
323

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
LASK Linz — Opponent-weighted form score
Austria Wien — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) LASK Linz Austria Wien

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

LASK Linz

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Austria Wien

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

LASK Linz ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Austria Wien
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
35.81
16.35
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
16.35
35.81
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
LASK Linz +1.52 Efficiency Index
vs
Austria Wien -1.52 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
LASK Linz
Austria Wien
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

LASK Linz ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Austria Wien
Created Set-piece attacking threat
LASK Linz Austria Wien
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
LASK Linz Austria Wien
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
LASK Linz
Austria Wien
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
LASK Linz
vs
Austria Wien
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
LASK Linz Austria Wien
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
LASK Linz 0.24
Austria Wien 0.12
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
LASK Linz Austria Wien
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
LASK Linz 0.04
Austria Wien 0.04
LASK Linz
Austria Wien
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 40 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

LASK Linz ASK Home
40 matches
Austria Wien FAK Away
Match Record
15
Wins
14
11
Draws
11
14
Losses
15
Goals
61
Goals Scored
67
67
Goals Conceded
61
-6
Goal Difference
+6
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-06T00:02:57+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
L. Jungwirth
Austria
1 L. Jungwirth
M. Cissé
48 M. Cissé
J. Tornich
Brazil
43 J. Tornich
A. Andrade Cedeño
Substitution
Panama
16 A. Andrade Cedeño
K. Mølgaard Jørgensen
Substitution
Denmark
20 K. Mølgaard Jørgensen
I. Coulibaly
Mali
4 I. Coulibaly
S. Horvath
Substitution
Austria
30 S. Horvath
M. Bogarde
Netherlands
6 M. Bogarde
M. Usor
Nigeria
8 M. Usor
S. Kalajdzic
Austria
10 S. Kalajdzic
S. Adeniran
Substitution
United States
7 S. Adeniran
S. Sahin-Radlinger
Austria
1 S. Sahin-Radlinger
T. Plavotic
Croatia
24 T. Plavotic
A. Dragović
Austria
15 A. Dragović
P. Wiesinger
Substitution
Austria
28 P. Wiesinger
T. Lee
South Korea
17 T. Lee
Lee Kang-Hee
South Korea
16 Lee Kang-Hee
P. Maybach
Substitution
Austria
6 P. Maybach
R. Ranftl
Austria
26 R. Ranftl
A. Bari
Gambia
5 A. Bari
M. Fischer
Substitution
Austria
30 M. Fischer
J. Eggestein
Substitution
Germany
19 J. Eggestein

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 05, 2026, 12:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria · Round 3 · Championship Round
Stadium
Raiffeisen Arena
Capacity
19080
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Jakob Semler
Alexander Borucki
Alexander Harkam
Maximilian Kolbitsch

Statistics

Possession
ASK
71%
FAK
29%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 1
6 Big Chances Created 0
10 Shots 1
90 Dangerous attacks 25
74 Possession 26
9 Corners 3
7 Free kicks 13
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

28 Dribble Attempts 11
19 Successful Dribbles 3
25 Throwins 15
3 Assists 0
68 Successful Dribbles Percentage 27
103 Ball Safe 68
18 Goal Attempts 3
5 Goal Kicks 12
2 Hit Woodwork 0
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

128 Attacks 58
3 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

567 Successful Passes 157
89 Successful Passes Percentage 72
634 Passes 219
34 Long Passes 48
16 Key Passes 1
22 Successful Long Passes 13
65 Successful Long Passes Percentage 27

Defensive

20 Tackles 20
3 Interceptions 5
59 Duels Won 46
0 Saves 5

Build-up

27 Total Crosses 9
9 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

1 Offsides 1
13 Fouls 7

Lineup

Referee : Jakob Semler

Starting XI ▼

1
Lukas Jungwirth
Lukas Jungwirth Goalkeeper
16
Andrés Andrade
Andrés Andrade Defender
3
Xavier Mbuyamba
Xavier Mbuyamba
Defender87'
43
Alemão
Alemão Defender
48
Modou Kéba Cissé
Modou Kéba Cissé Defender
4
Ismaila Coulibaly
Ismaila Coulibaly Midfielder
6
Melayro Bogarde
Melayro Bogarde Midfielder
20
Kasper Jørgensen
Kasper Jørgensen Midfielder
29
Florian Flecker
Florian Flecker
Attacker78'
30
Sascha Horvath
Sascha Horvath Midfielder
27
Christoph Lang
Christoph Lang
Attacker87'
7
Samuel Adeniran
Samuel Adeniran Attacker
11
Maximilian Entrup
Maximilian Entrup
Attacker78'
8
Moses Usor
Moses Usor Attacker
10
Sasa Kalajdzic
Sasa Kalajdzic Attacker
Referee : Jakob Semler

Starting XI ▼

1
Samuel Sahin-Radlinger
Samuel Sahin-Radlinger Goalkeeper
15
Aleksandar Dragovic
Aleksandar Dragovic Defender
24
Tin Plavotic
Tin Plavotic Defender
28
Philipp Wiesinger
Philipp Wiesinger Defender
60
Dejan Radonjic
Dejan Radonjic
Defender61'
6
Philipp Maybach
Philipp Maybach Midfielder
36
Vasilije Markovic
Vasilije Markovic
Midfielder61'
16
Kang-hee Lee
Kang-hee Lee Midfielder
17
Tae-seok Lee
Tae-seok Lee Midfielder
26
Reinhold Ranftl
Reinhold Ranftl Midfielder
5
Abubakr Barry
Abubakr Barry Attacker
19
Johannes Eggestein
Johannes Eggestein Attacker
14
Kelvin Boateng
Kelvin Boateng
Attacker85'
30
Manfred Fischer
Manfred Fischer Attacker
20
Sanel Saljic
Sanel Saljic
Midfielder72'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Christoph Lang → Sascha Horvath
9th Substitution
87'
Event
Xavier Mbuyamba → Andrés Andrade
10th Substitution
87'
85'
Event
Kelvin Boateng → Johannes Eggestein
8th Substitution
Event
Maximilian Entrup → Samuel Adeniran
6th Substitution
78'
Event
Florian Flecker → Kasper Jørgensen
7th Substitution
78'
72'
Event
Sanel Saljic → Manfred Fischer
5th Substitution
Event
4th Substitution
71'
71'
Event
3rd Substitution
61'
Event
Dejan Radonjic → Philipp Wiesinger
2nd Substitution
61'
Event
Vasilije Markovic → Philipp Maybach
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Sasa Kalajdzic
Header / 5th Goal
32'
16'
Event
Tae-seok Lee
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Moses Usor
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
13'
Event
Kasper Jørgensen
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
12'
11'
Event
Tin Plavotic
Professional handball / 1st Redcard
10'
Event
Tin Plavotic
Card adjusted
Event
Modou Kéba Cissé
Header / 1st Goal
4'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: LASK Linz exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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