Hartberg vs Salzburg Prediction, Preview and Stats

Austria flag 2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
PROfertil ARENA Sun, 5 Apr - 12:30 PM
Admiral Bundesliga
Hartberg HTB
1 Winner 2
Salzburg RBS
Full Time Sun, 5 Apr 12:30 PM
Round 3 Championship Round
Elias Havel - 30'
Goal
|
Goal
Karim Konaté - 56'
Sota Kitano - 58'
Lukas Spendlhofer 83' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

The match between Hartberg and Salzburg is now finished, with Salzburg securing a 2-1 full-time victory. Despite the visitors entering as clear pre-match favorites with a 60.6% win probability—compared to Hartberg's 15.9% and a 23.5% chance of a draw—the hosts surprisingly took a 1-0 lead into halftime. The final result ultimately aligned with the pre-match market, representing a significant deviation level of 39.4% in favor of the deviation team, Salzburg. Salzburg controlled the tempo throughout the contest, dictating play with 62% possession while restricting Hartberg to just 38%. The fixture's turning point was heavily influenced by a red card shown to Hartberg. This sending-off created a major red card distortion in the second half, providing Salzburg the momentum and numerical advantage needed to overturn the early deficit. While specific expected goals (xG) data is currently unavailable to determine if the final scoreline strictly aligned with chance creation, the match's efficiency shift was completely in line with the overall metrics. In the end, the stronger side used their heavy possession and extra man to grind out the anticipated three points.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Salzburg showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
S. Barmaksiz
S. Barmaksiz
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.23
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.4
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.37
R. Steinacher
R. Steinacher
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.23
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.4
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.37
E. Ristoskov
E. Ristoskov
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.23
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.4
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.37
S. Kühr
S. Kühr
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.23
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.4
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.37
Hartberg M. Schmid
M. Schmid
VS
Salzburg D. Beichler
D. Beichler
1.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.5
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Austria Wien Rank: 65 L
LASK Linz Rank: 64 D
Blau-Weiß Linz Rank: 48 D
Salzburg Rank: 69 D
Grazer AK Rank: 52 W
Rheindorf Altach Rank: 53 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sturm Graz Rank: 68 D
SK Rapid Rank: 58 L
SK Rapid Rank: 60 L
Hartberg Rank: 59 D
LASK Linz Rank: 65 W
Grazer AK Rank: 52 D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 3 - 17
17

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Hartberg
15.92%
Draw
23.48%
Away Salzburg
60.6%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
58.95
68.59
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hartberg
Salzburg
Power Score
58.95
68.59
League Position
6
3
Global Rank
503
222

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Hartberg — Opponent-weighted form score
Salzburg — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hartberg Salzburg

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Hartberg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Salzburg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Hartberg ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Salzburg
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
41.18
38.95
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
38.95
41.18
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Hartberg +0.17 Efficiency Index
vs
Salzburg -0.17 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Hartberg
Salzburg
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Hartberg ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Salzburg
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Hartberg Salzburg
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Hartberg Salzburg
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Hartberg
Salzburg
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Hartberg
vs
Salzburg
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Hartberg Salzburg
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Hartberg 0.42
Salzburg 0.33
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Hartberg Salzburg
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Hartberg 0.03
Salzburg 0.03
Hartberg
Salzburg
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 20 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hartberg HTB Home
20 matches
Salzburg RBS Away
Match Record
0
Wins
17
3
Draws
3
17
Losses
0
Goals
13
Goals Scored
65
65
Goals Conceded
13
-52
Goal Difference
+52
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-06T00:03:02+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-3-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
T. Hülsmann
Germany
40 T. Hülsmann
J. Heil
Austria
28 J. Heil
F. Wilfinger
Austria
18 F. Wilfinger
L. Spendlhofer
Austria
19 L. Spendlhofer
H. Coulibaly
Spain
6 H. Coulibaly
M. Hennig
Substitution
Germany
33 M. Hennig
B. Markuš
Slovenia
4 B. Markuš
L. Fridrikas
Substitution
Austria
30 L. Fridrikas
T. Kainz
Substitution
Austria
23 T. Kainz
J. Drew
Substitution
Australia
79 J. Drew
E. Havel
Austria
7 E. Havel
A. Schlager
Austria
1 A. Schlager
A. Terzić
Serbia
3 A. Terzić
J. Schuster
Austria
44 J. Schuster
K. Gadou
France
23 K. Gadou
T. Drexler
Substitution
Germany
21 T. Drexler
F. Krätzig
Substitution
Germany
13 F. Krätzig
M. Bidstrup
Denmark
18 M. Bidstrup
Y. Vertessen
Belgium
11 Y. Vertessen
S. Kitano
Substitution
Japan
8 S. Kitano
E. Baidoo
Substitution
20 E. Baidoo
K. Konaté
Substitution
Ivory Coast
19 K. Konaté

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 05, 2026, 12:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria · Round 3 · Championship Round
Stadium
PROfertil ARENA
Capacity
4635
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Safak Barmaksiz
Robert Steinacher
Emil Ristoskov
Stefan Kühr

Statistics

Possession
HTB
41%
RBS
59%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 3
11 Shots 16
33 Dangerous attacks 63
38 Possession 62
2 Corners 7
8 Free kicks 7
1 Yellow Cards 3
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

56 Successful Dribbles Percentage 53
21 Throwins 22
9 Dribble Attempts 9
12 Goal Kicks 7
1 Hit Woodwork 0
9 Successful Dribbles 9
71 Ball Safe 70
10 Goal Attempts 11
1 Assists 1
3 Substitutions 5
2 Injuries 1

Attacking

65 Attacks 105

Possession

68 Successful Passes Percentage 83
182 Successful Passes 357
269 Passes 431
33 Long Passes 13
11 Key Passes 16

Defensive

13 Tackles 11
38 Duels Won 40
4 Saves 3
3 Interceptions 9

Build-up

6 Total Crosses 15

Discipline

1 Offsides 3
7 Fouls 8

Lineup

Referee : Safak Barmaksiz

Starting XI ▼

40
Tom Ritzy Hülsmann
Tom Ritzy Hülsmann Goalkeeper
6
Habib Coulibaly
Habib Coulibaly Defender
18
Fabian Wilfinger
Fabian Wilfinger Defender
19
Lukas Spendlhofer
Lukas Spendlhofer Defender
28
Jürgen Heil
Jürgen Heil Defender
33
Maximilian Hennig
Maximilian Hennig Defender
2
Luca Pazourek
Luca Pazourek
Midfielder62'
4
Benjamin Markus
Benjamin Markus Midfielder
23
Tobias Kainz
Tobias Kainz Midfielder
5
Youba Diarra
Youba Diarra
Midfielder79'
30
Lukas Fridrikas
Lukas Fridrikas Midfielder
61
Musibau Aziz
Musibau Aziz
Attacker62'
7
Elias Havel
Elias Havel Attacker
79
Jed Drew
Jed Drew Attacker
22
Marco Hoffmann
Marco Hoffmann
Attacker62'
Referee : Safak Barmaksiz

Starting XI ▼

1
Alexander Schlager
Alexander Schlager Goalkeeper
3
Aleksa Terzic
Aleksa Terzic Defender
21
Tim Drexler
Tim Drexler Defender
22
Stefan Lainer
Stefan Lainer
Defender46'
23
Joane Gadou
Joane Gadou Defender
44
Jannik Schuster
Jannik Schuster Defender
8
Sota Kitano
Sota Kitano Midfielder
5
Soumaïla Diabaté
Soumaïla Diabaté
Midfielder90+4'
11
Yorbe Vertessen
Yorbe Vertessen Midfielder
13
Frans Krätzig
Frans Krätzig Midfielder
27
Kerim Alajbegovic
Kerim Alajbegovic
Attacker46'
18
Mads Bidstrup
Mads Bidstrup Midfielder
20
Edmund Baidoo
Edmund Baidoo Midfielder
14
Maurits Kjærgaard
Maurits Kjærgaard
Midfielder71'
19
Karim Konaté
Karim Konaté Attacker
9
Karim Onisiwo
Karim Onisiwo
Attacker89'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Soumaïla Diabaté → Sota Kitano
9th Substitution
89'
Event
Karim Onisiwo → Karim Konaté
8th Substitution
Event
Lukas Spendlhofer
Professional foul last man / 1st Redcard
83'
Event
Youba Diarra → Tobias Kainz
7th Substitution
79'
77'
Event
Kerim Alajbegovic
Goal disallowed
Event
Tom Ritzy Hülsmann
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
74'
71'
Event
Maurits Kjærgaard → Edmund Baidoo
6th Substitution
70'
Event
Aleksa Terzic
3rd Yellowcard
Event
Musibau Aziz → Lukas Fridrikas
3rd Substitution
62'
Event
Marco Hoffmann → Jed Drew
4th Substitution
62'
Event
Luca Pazourek → Maximilian Hennig
5th Substitution
62'
Event
Manfred Schmid
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
59'
58'
Event
Sota Kitano
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
56'
Event
Karim Konaté
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
51'
Event
Stefan Lainer
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
46'
Event
Stefan Lainer → Tim Drexler
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Kerim Alajbegovic → Frans Krätzig
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
36'
Event
Karim Konaté
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Elias Havel
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
30'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Salzburg exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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