Obolon'-Brovar vs Zorya Luhansk Match Preview, Stats & Prediction

2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine

Obolon' Arena Sun, 5 Apr - 12:30 PM

Premier League

Obolon'-Brovar Obolon'-Brovar

3 – 3

Zorya Luhansk Zorya Luhansk

Full Time Sun, 5 Apr 12:30 PM

Round 22 Regular Season

Taras Lyakh - 84'

R. Volokhatyi - 60'

Vladyslav Pryimak - 36'

Pylyp Budkivskyi - 65' (P)

Igor Perduta - 51'

Roman Vantukh - 6'

V. Skrypnyk 86'

CONTEXT

The match between Obolon'-Brovar and Zorya Luhansk has officially finished, ending in a high-scoring 3-3 draw. After heading into the halftime break evenly matched at 1-1, both teams found the back of the net twice more in the second half. This full-time result was not aligned with the pre-match market, which favored Zorya Luhansk at 38.2% compared to Obolon'-Brovar's 30.8% win probability and a 31% chance of a draw. Because the away side failed to secure the win, the draw represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations for the stronger team, Zorya Luhansk. A crucial factor in this result was Zorya Luhansk going down to ten men. The away team's red card introduced noticeable second-half distortions that ultimately hindered their ability to capitalize on their pre-match advantage. On the pitch, the flow of the game was perfectly balanced, with both Obolon'-Brovar and Zorya Luhansk holding exactly 50% possession. While expected goals (xG) data was unavailable to determine if the outcome aligned with the quality of created chances, the overall attacking efficiency shift was evaluated to be in line with the general dynamics of the match.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Zorya Luhansk showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

V. Romanov

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

E. Petrakov

2nd Assistant

V. Vysotsky

1st Assistant

M. Kozyryatskiy

4th Official

O. Antonenko

V. Skripnik

0.92

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.38

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

0 - 2 - 3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Obolon'-Brovar

30.77%

Draw

31.02%

Zorya Luhansk

38.21%

Team Power Ranking

42.22

51.5

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Obolon'-Brovar

Zorya Luhansk

Power Score

42.22

51.5

League Position

Global Rank

942

700

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Obolon'-Brovar — Opponent-weighted form score

Zorya Luhansk — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Obolon'-Brovar Zorya Luhansk

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Obolon'-Brovar

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Zorya Luhansk

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Obolon'-Brovar ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Zorya Luhansk

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

15.50

19.60

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

19.60

15.50

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Obolon'-Brovar -0.42 Efficiency Index

Zorya Luhansk +0.42 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Obolon'-Brovar

Zorya Luhansk

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Obolon'-Brovar ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Zorya Luhansk

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Obolon'-Brovar Zorya Luhansk

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 1.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Obolon'-Brovar Zorya Luhansk

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

1.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Obolon'-Brovar

Zorya Luhansk

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Obolon'-Brovar

Zorya Luhansk

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Obolon'-Brovar Zorya Luhansk

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Transition Efficiency Index Higher = stronger on the counter

Obolon'-Brovar 0.17

Zorya Luhansk 0.22

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Obolon'-Brovar Zorya Luhansk

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Obolon'-Brovar

Zorya Luhansk

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Obolon'-Brovar Obolon'-Brovar Home

5 matches

Zorya Luhansk Zorya Luhansk Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

-5

Goal Difference

Data last updated: 2026-04-06T00:02:48+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2

1 N. Fedorivsky

13 I. Medynskyi

3 V. Pryymak

50 D. Semenov

5 E. Shevchenko

55 S. Sukhanov

20 R. Volokhatiy

4 T. Moroz

75 M. Tretyakov

9 D. Ustymenko

40 I. Nesterenko

12 M. Turbaevsky

10 L. Reis Rodrigues

4 G. Eskinja

55 A. da Silva Cordeiro

44 I. Perduta

47 R. Vantukh

23 N. Malysh

77 B. Kushnirenko

9 A. Slesar

28 P. Budkivskyi

11 I. Horbach

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 05, 2026, 12:30 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine · Round 22 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Obolon' Arena

Capacity :

5100

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ , Clear

Referees :

Evgen Petrakov

Vitaliy Romanov

Volodymyr Vysotsky

Maksim Kozyryatskiy

Statistics

Possession

Obolon'-Brovar

48%

Zorya Luhansk

52%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 3

6 Shots 8

35 Dangerous attacks 36

50 Possession 50

9 Corners 5

9 Free kicks 12

0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

2 Assists 2

7 Goal Kicks 11

5 Substitutions 1

0 Penalties 1

Attacking

67 Attacks 74

Defensive

0 Saves 1

Discipline

13 Fouls 12

0 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Vitaliy Romanov

Manager ▼

O. Antonenko Coach

Starting XI ▼

Nazariy Fedorivskyi Goalkeeper

Vladyslav Pryimak Defender

Yevgeniy Shevchenko Defender

Dmytro Semenov Defender

Taras Moroz Midfielder

Igor Medynskyi Midfielder

Pavlo Polegenko

Defender78'

R. Volokhatyi Midfielder

Kostyantyn Bychek

Attacker90+4'

Ivan Nesterenko Midfielder

Oleg Slobodyan

Midfielder71'

Maksym Tretyakov Midfielder

Denys Ustymenko Attacker

Taras Lyakh

78'

Sergiy Sukhanov Attacker

Yegor Prokopenko

Midfielder71'

Substitutes ▼

Yegor Prokopenko

Midfielder71'

Oleg Slobodyan

Midfielder71'

Taras Lyakh

78'

Pavlo Polegenko

Defender78'

Kostyantyn Bychek

Attacker90+4'

Bench ▼

Denys Marchenko Goalkeeper

Andriy Lomnytskyi Defender

O. Zhovtenko Defender

Maksym Chekh Midfielder

Artem Kulakovskyi Midfielder

Ruslan Chernenko Midfielder

Denys Teslyuk Attacker

Referee : Vitaliy Romanov