Obolon'-Brovar vs Zorya Luhansk Prediction, Preview and Stats

Ukraine flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Obolon' Arena Sun, 5 Apr - 12:30 PM
Premier League
Obolon'-Brovar Obolon'-Brovar
3 – 3
Zorya Luhansk Zorya Luhansk
Full Time Sun, 5 Apr 12:30 PM
Round 22 Regular Season
Vladyslav Pryimak - 36'
R. Volokhatyi - 60'
Taras Lyakh - 84'
Goal
|
Goal
Roman Vantukh - 6'
Igor Perduta - 51'
Pylyp Budkivskyi - 65' (P)

CONTEXT

The match between Obolon'-Brovar and Zorya Luhansk has officially finished, ending in a high-scoring 3-3 draw. After heading into the halftime break evenly matched at 1-1, both teams found the back of the net twice more in the second half. This full-time result was not aligned with the pre-match market, which favored Zorya Luhansk at 38.2% compared to Obolon'-Brovar's 30.8% win probability and a 31% chance of a draw. Because the away side failed to secure the win, the draw represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations for the stronger team, Zorya Luhansk. A crucial factor in this result was Zorya Luhansk going down to ten men. The away team's red card introduced noticeable second-half distortions that ultimately hindered their ability to capitalize on their pre-match advantage. On the pitch, the flow of the game was perfectly balanced, with both Obolon'-Brovar and Zorya Luhansk holding exactly 50% possession. While expected goals (xG) data was unavailable to determine if the outcome aligned with the quality of created chances, the overall attacking efficiency shift was evaluated to be in line with the general dynamics of the match.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Zorya Luhansk showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
E. Petrakov
E. Petrakov
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.1
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.56
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
V. Romanov
V. Romanov
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.1
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.56
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
V. Vysotsky
V. Vysotsky
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.1
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.56
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
M. Kozyryatskiy
M. Kozyryatskiy
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.1
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.56
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.21
Obolon'-Brovar O. Antonenko
O. Antonenko
VS
Zorya Luhansk V. Skripnik
V. Skripnik
0.92
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.38
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Karpaty Rank: 50 L
Dynamo Kyiv Rank: 66 L
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Rank: 55 D
Rukh Vynnyky Rank: 45 W
Oleksandria Rank: 46 D
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Rank: 50 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Shakhtar Donetsk Rank: 73 D
Kolos Kovalivka Rank: 51 D
SK Poltava Rank: 33 W
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Rank: 55 L
Kudrivka Rank: 43 D
LNZ Cherkasy Rank: 58 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 2 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Obolon'-Brovar
30.77%
Draw
31.02%
Away Zorya Luhansk
38.21%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
42.22
51.5
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Obolon'-Brovar
Zorya Luhansk
Power Score
42.22
51.5
League Position
11
8
Global Rank
942
700

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Obolon'-Brovar — Opponent-weighted form score
Zorya Luhansk — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Obolon'-Brovar Zorya Luhansk

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Obolon'-Brovar

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Zorya Luhansk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Obolon'-Brovar ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Zorya Luhansk
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
15.50
19.60
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
19.60
15.50
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Obolon'-Brovar -0.40 Efficiency Index
vs
Zorya Luhansk +0.40 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Obolon'-Brovar
Zorya Luhansk
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Obolon'-Brovar ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Zorya Luhansk
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Obolon'-Brovar Zorya Luhansk
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Obolon'-Brovar Zorya Luhansk
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Obolon'-Brovar
Zorya Luhansk
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Obolon'-Brovar
vs
Zorya Luhansk
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Obolon'-Brovar Zorya Luhansk
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Obolon'-Brovar 0.17
Zorya Luhansk 0.22
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Obolon'-Brovar Zorya Luhansk
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Obolon'-Brovar 0.08
Zorya Luhansk 0.09
Obolon'-Brovar
Zorya Luhansk
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Obolon'-Brovar Obolon'-Brovar Home
5 matches
Zorya Luhansk Zorya Luhansk Away
Match Record
0
Wins
3
2
Draws
2
3
Losses
0
Goals
3
Goals Scored
8
8
Goals Conceded
3
-5
Goal Difference
+5
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-06T00:02:48+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
N. Fedorivsky
Ukraine
1 N. Fedorivsky
I. Medynskyi
Substitution
Ukraine
13 I. Medynskyi
V. Pryymak
Ukraine
3 V. Pryymak
D. Semenov
Ukraine
50 D. Semenov
E. Shevchenko
Ukraine
5 E. Shevchenko
S. Sukhanov
Substitution
Ukraine
55 S. Sukhanov
R. Volokhatiy
Substitution
Ukraine
20 R. Volokhatiy
T. Moroz
Ukraine
4 T. Moroz
M. Tretyakov
Ukraine
75 M. Tretyakov
D. Ustymenko
Substitution
Ukraine
9 D. Ustymenko
I. Nesterenko
Substitution
Ukraine
40 I. Nesterenko
M. Turbaevsky
Ukraine
12 M. Turbaevsky
L. Reis Rodrigues
Brazil
10 L. Reis Rodrigues
G. Eskinja
Austria
4 G. Eskinja
A. da Silva Cordeiro
Brazil
55 A. da Silva Cordeiro
I. Perduta
Ukraine
44 I. Perduta
R. Vantukh
Ukraine
47 R. Vantukh
N. Malysh
Ukraine
23 N. Malysh
B. Kushnirenko
Ukraine
77 B. Kushnirenko
A. Slesar
Ukraine
9 A. Slesar
P. Budkivskyi
Ukraine
28 P. Budkivskyi
I. Horbach
Substitution
Ukraine
11 I. Horbach

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 05, 2026, 12:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine · Round 22 · Regular Season
Stadium
Obolon' Arena
Capacity
5100
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Evgen Petrakov
Vitaliy Romanov
Volodymyr Vysotsky
Maksim Kozyryatskiy

Statistics

Possession
Obolon'-Brovar
48%
Zorya Luhansk
52%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 3
6 Shots 8
35 Dangerous attacks 36
50 Possession 50
9 Corners 5
9 Free kicks 12
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

2 Assists 2
7 Goal Kicks 11
5 Substitutions 1
0 Penalties 1

Attacking

67 Attacks 74

Defensive

0 Saves 1

Discipline

13 Fouls 12
0 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Vitaliy Romanov

Starting XI ▼

1
Nazariy Fedorivskyi
Nazariy Fedorivskyi Goalkeeper
3
Vladyslav Pryimak
Vladyslav Pryimak Defender
5
Yevgeniy Shevchenko
Yevgeniy Shevchenko Defender
50
Dmytro Semenov
Dmytro Semenov Defender
4
Taras Moroz
Taras Moroz Midfielder
13
Igor Medynskyi
Igor Medynskyi Midfielder
28
Pavlo Polegenko
Pavlo Polegenko
Defender78'
20
R. Volokhatyi
R. Volokhatyi Midfielder
21
Kostyantyn Bychek
Kostyantyn Bychek
Attacker90+4'
40
Ivan Nesterenko
Ivan Nesterenko Midfielder
10
Oleg Slobodyan
Oleg Slobodyan
Midfielder71'
75
Maksym Tretyakov
Maksym Tretyakov Midfielder
9
Denys Ustymenko
Denys Ustymenko Attacker
90
Taras Lyakh
Taras Lyakh
78'
55
Sergiy Sukhanov
Sergiy Sukhanov Attacker
24
Yegor Prokopenko
Yegor Prokopenko
Midfielder71'
Referee : Vitaliy Romanov

Starting XI ▼

12
Mykyta Turbayevskyi
Mykyta Turbayevskyi Goalkeeper
4
Gabriel Eskinja
Gabriel Eskinja Defender
10
Juninho
Juninho Defender
44
Igor Perduta
Igor Perduta Defender
47
Roman Vantukh
Roman Vantukh Defender
55
Jordan
Jordan Defender
9
Artem Slesar
Artem Slesar Midfielder
11
Igor Gorbach
Igor Gorbach Midfielder
17
Fedir Zadorozhnyi
Fedir Zadorozhnyi
Attacker81'
23
Navin Malysh
Navin Malysh Midfielder
77
Bogdan Kushnirenko
Bogdan Kushnirenko Midfielder
28
Pylyp Budkivskyi
Pylyp Budkivskyi Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Kostyantyn Bychek → R. Volokhatyi
6th Substitution
90+4'
86'
Event
V. Skrypnyk
1st Yellow/red Card
Event
Taras Lyakh
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
84'
81'
Event
Fedir Zadorozhnyi → Igor Gorbach
5th Substitution
Event
Taras Lyakh → Denys Ustymenko
3rd Substitution
78'
Event
Pavlo Polegenko → Igor Medynskyi
4th Substitution
78'
72'
Event
Jordan
1st Yellowcard
Event
Yegor Prokopenko → Sergiy Sukhanov
1st Substitution
71'
Event
Oleg Slobodyan → Ivan Nesterenko
2nd Substitution
71'
65'
Event
Pylyp Budkivskyi
Penalty / 1st Penalty
Event
R. Volokhatyi
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
60'
51'
Event
Igor Perduta
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
1ST-HALF
Event
Vladyslav Pryimak
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
36'
6'
Event
Roman Vantukh
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Zorya Luhansk exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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