Dynamo Makhachkala vs Baltika Kaliningrad Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Anzhi-Arena Sun, 5 Apr - 1:30 PM
Premier League
Dynamo Makhachkala Dynamo Makhachkala
2 – 2
Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad
Full Time Sun, 5 Apr 1:30 PM
Round 23 Regular Season
Gamid Agalarov - 53', 72' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
B. Gil - 13'
S. Varatynov - 81'

CONTEXT

The match between Dynamo Makhachkala and Baltika Kaliningrad has finished with a 2-1 full-time victory for the home side. Baltika Kaliningrad initially took control, heading into half-time with a 1-0 advantage before Dynamo Makhachkala rallied in the second half to secure the comeback win. Despite the defeat, the visiting side controlled the majority of the ball, holding 56% possession compared to the hosts' 44%. Although pre-match market probabilities were completely flat at 0% across all outcomes, the final result was still classified as market aligned. Interestingly, the data indicates a significant deviation from pre-match expectations involving Dynamo Makhachkala, though the hosts eventually proved their status as the designated stronger team by securing the victory. Expected goals (xG) metrics were unavailable for both teams, so it remains undetermined whether the final scoreline was consistent with the underlying shot quality. Nevertheless, the overall efficiency shift was recorded as being in line with expectations. The fixture was also completed without any major disciplinary disruptions, as no red cards were issued to either side, allowing both teams to finish with eleven men.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Dynamo Makhachkala showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
E. Kukulyak
E. Kukulyak
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.72
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.79
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.54
A. Bolotenkov
A. Bolotenkov
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.72
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.79
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.54
M. Plisko
M. Plisko
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.72
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.79
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.54
D. Bereznov
D. Bereznov
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.72
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.79
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.54
Dynamo Makhachkala K. Bidzhiyev
K. Bidzhiyev
VS
Baltika Kaliningrad A. Talalaev
A. Talalaev
0.92
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.08
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
CSKA Moskva Rank: 71 L
Orenburg Rank: 52 W
Krylya Sovetov Rank: 55 L
Rubin Kazan Rank: 62 W
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: 51 L
Sochi Rank: 48 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sochi Rank: 49 W
CSKA Moskva Rank: 73 W
Rostov Rank: 60 D
Zenit Rank: 80 L
Krylya Sovetov Rank: 55 W
Spartak Moskva Rank: 73 W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Dynamo Makhachkala
0%
Draw
0%
Away Baltika Kaliningrad
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
56.65
56.17
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Dynamo Makhachkala
Baltika Kaliningrad
Power Score
56.65
56.17
League Position
12
4
Global Rank
573
276

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Dynamo Makhachkala — Opponent-weighted form score
Baltika Kaliningrad — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Dynamo Makhachkala Baltika Kaliningrad

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Dynamo Makhachkala

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Baltika Kaliningrad

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Dynamo Makhachkala ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Baltika Kaliningrad
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
34.09
27.14
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
27.14
34.09
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Dynamo Makhachkala +0.77 Efficiency Index
vs
Baltika Kaliningrad -0.77 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Dynamo Makhachkala
Baltika Kaliningrad
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Dynamo Makhachkala ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Baltika Kaliningrad
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Dynamo Makhachkala Baltika Kaliningrad
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Dynamo Makhachkala Baltika Kaliningrad
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Dynamo Makhachkala
Baltika Kaliningrad
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Dynamo Makhachkala
vs
Baltika Kaliningrad
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Dynamo Makhachkala Baltika Kaliningrad
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Dynamo Makhachkala 0.33
Baltika Kaliningrad 0.30
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Dynamo Makhachkala Baltika Kaliningrad
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Dynamo Makhachkala 0.05
Baltika Kaliningrad 0.05
Dynamo Makhachkala
Baltika Kaliningrad
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Dynamo Makhachkala Dynamo Makhachkala Home
1 matches
Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
0
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-06T00:03:32+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-4-1
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
D. Volk
Russia
27 D. Volk
M. Azzi
Algeria
22 M. Azzi
S. Kagermazov
Russia
13 S. Kagermazov
A. Alarcón Mendoza
Colombia
24 A. Alarcón Mendoza
J. Tabidze
Substitution
Georgia
5 J. Tabidze
T. Sundukov
Substitution
Russia
77 T. Sundukov
M. Hosseinnezhad Mahaleh kolaei
Substitution
Iran
10 M. Hosseinnezhad Mahaleh kolaei
H. Eddine Mrezigue
Algeria
16 H. Eddine Mrezigue
E. Moubarik
Morocco
6 E. Moubarik
N. Glushkov
Russia
47 N. Glushkov
G. Agalarov
Substitution
Russia
25 G. Agalarov
M. Borisko
Russia
67 M. Borisko
N. Gassama
France
4 N. Gassama
K. Andrade Murillo
Colombia
16 K. Andrade Murillo
S. Varatynov
Russia
2 S. Varatynov
E. Ćivić
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
77 E. Ćivić
I. Petrov
Russia
10 I. Petrov
N. Titkov
Substitution
Russia
22 N. Titkov
I. Manelov
Substitution
Russia
69 I. Manelov
T. Yenne
Substitution
Nigeria
15 T. Yenne
B. Gil Hurtado
Substitution
El Salvador
91 B. Gil Hurtado
M. Petrov
Russia
73 M. Petrov

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 05, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 23 · Regular Season
Stadium
Anzhi-Arena
Capacity
28000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Evgeny Kukulyak
Andrey Bolotenkov
Mikhail Plisko
Denis Bereznov

Statistics

Possession
Dynamo Makhachkala
46%
Baltika Kaliningrad
54%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
4 Big Chances Created 1
13 Shots 13
40 Dangerous attacks 44
44 Possession 56
4 Corners 5
22 Free kicks 15
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

17 Dribble Attempts 20
26 Successful Headers 20
6 Goal Kicks 9
26 Throwins 19
29 Successful Dribbles Percentage 45
5 Successful Dribbles 9
1 Assists 1
2 Penalties 0
12 Goal Attempts 9
87 Ball Safe 85
4 Substitutions 5
1 Injuries 1

Attacking

96 Attacks 92
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

66 Long Passes 86
215 Successful Passes 300
321 Passes 408
67 Successful Passes Percentage 74
44 Successful Long Passes Percentage 51
29 Successful Long Passes 44

Defensive

68 Duels Won 63
18 Interceptions 16
16 Tackles 19
2 Saves 2

Build-up

5 Accurate Crosses 3
17 Total Crosses 15

Discipline

14 Fouls 21
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Evgeny Kukulyak

Starting XI ▼

27
David Volk
David Volk Goalkeeper
5
Jemal Tabidze
Jemal Tabidze Defender
43
Ilyas Akhmedov
Ilyas Akhmedov
Defender61'
13
Soslan Kagermazov
Soslan Kagermazov Defender
22
Mohamed Azzi
Mohamed Azzi Defender
24
Andrés Alarcón
Andrés Alarcón Defender
77
Temirkan Sundukov
Temirkan Sundukov Defender
28
Serder Serderov
Serder Serderov
Attacker85'
6
Mehdi Moubarik
Mehdi Moubarik Midfielder
10
Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejad
Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejad Midfielder
11
Miro
Miro
Attacker40'
16
Houssem Mrezigue
Houssem Mrezigue Midfielder
47
Nikita Glushkov
Nikita Glushkov Midfielder
25
Gamid Agalarov
Gamid Agalarov Attacker
2
7
Hazem Mastouri
Hazem Mastouri
Attacker86'
Referee : Evgeny Kukulyak

Starting XI ▼

67
Maksim Borisko
Maksim Borisko Goalkeeper
2
S. Varatynov
S. Varatynov Defender
4
Nathan Gassama
Nathan Gassama Defender
16
K. Andrade
K. Andrade Defender
10
Ilya Petrov
Ilya Petrov Midfielder
22
Nikolai Titkov
Nikolai Titkov Midfielder
18
Derik Lacerda
Derik Lacerda
Attacker67'
69
I. Manelov
I. Manelov Midfielder
11
Yuriy Kovalev
Yuriy Kovalev
Midfielder85'
77
E. Ćivić
E. Ćivić Midfielder
68
Mikhail Ryadno
Mikhail Ryadno
Defender60'
15
T. Yenne
T. Yenne Attacker
26
Ivan Belikov
Ivan Belikov
Defender46'
73
Maksim Petrov
Maksim Petrov Attacker
91
B. Gil
B. Gil Attacker
90
Chinonso Offor
Chinonso Offor
Attacker85'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Hazem Mastouri → Gamid Agalarov
9th Substitution
86'
Event
Serder Serderov → Temirkan Sundukov
8th Substitution
85'
85'
Event
Chinonso Offor → B. Gil
7th Substitution
85'
Event
Yuriy Kovalev → I. Manelov
6th Substitution
81'
Event
S. Varatynov
Header / 3rd Goal
Event
Gamid Agalarov
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
72'
Event
Gamid Agalarov
Penalty awarded
70'
67'
Event
Derik Lacerda → Nikolai Titkov
5th Substitution
Event
Ilyas Akhmedov → Jemal Tabidze
4th Substitution
61'
60'
Event
Mikhail Ryadno → E. Ćivić
3rd Substitution
58'
Event
Ivan Belikov
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Gamid Agalarov
Header / 2nd Goal
53'
46'
Event
Ivan Belikov → T. Yenne
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Miro → Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejad
1st Substitution
40'
13'
Event
B. Gil
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Dynamo Makhachkala exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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