FC Union Berlin vs St. Pauli Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Stadion An der Alten Försterei Sun, 5 Apr - 1:30 PM
Bundesliga
FC Union Berlin FCU
1 – 1
St. Pauli PAU
Full Time Sun, 5 Apr 1:30 PM
Round 28 Regular Season
Andrej Ilic - 52'
Goal
|
Goal
Mathias Pereira Lage - 25'
|
Second yellow card Jackson Irvine 90+3'

CONTEXT

The match between FC Union Berlin and St. Pauli has officially finished, with the hosts securing a 1-0 full-time victory. Despite trailing 0-1 at half-time, FC Union Berlin managed to completely turn the tide. Going into the fixture, they were the clear pre-match market favorites with a 45.8% implied win probability, compared to a 29.4% chance for a draw and 24.8% for a St. Pauli upset. The final outcome aligned perfectly with the market, though it ultimately required a significant deviation from FC Union Berlin to achieve the win. The home side dictated the overall tempo, registering 55% possession against St. Pauli's 45%. Because expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for both teams, it remains unconfirmed if the final scoreline aligned with the underlying chance creation. Nevertheless, the match's efficiency shift was entirely in line with expectations. A major turning point in the contest occurred when St. Pauli received a red card. This crucial

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: FC Union Berlin showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Thomsen
M. Thomsen
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.07
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.96
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
T. Welz
T. Welz
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.07
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.96
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
F. Lechner
F. Lechner
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.07
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.96
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
Thorben Siewer
Thorben Siewer
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 16.07
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.96
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.24
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
FC Union Berlin S. Baumgart
S. Baumgart
VS
St. Pauli A. Blessin
A. Blessin
1.14
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.81
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Bayern München Rank: 99 L
SC Freiburg Rank: 80 W
Werder Bremen Rank: 76 L
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: 76 L
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: 90 W
Hamburger SV Rank: 77 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
SC Freiburg Rank: 80 L
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: 75 L
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: 81 D
TSG Hoffenheim Rank: 83 W
Werder Bremen Rank: 76 W
Bayer 04 Leverkusen Rank: 90 L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home FC Union Berlin
45.75%
Draw
29.41%
Away St. Pauli
24.84%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
75.1
72.64
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
FC Union Berlin
St. Pauli
Power Score
75.1
72.64
League Position
10
16
Global Rank
104
140

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
FC Union Berlin — Opponent-weighted form score
St. Pauli — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) FC Union Berlin St. Pauli

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

FC Union Berlin

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

St. Pauli

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

FC Union Berlin ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy St. Pauli
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
36.36
23.67
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.67
36.36
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
FC Union Berlin +1.20 Efficiency Index
vs
St. Pauli -1.20 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
FC Union Berlin
St. Pauli
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

FC Union Berlin ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy St. Pauli
Created Set-piece attacking threat
FC Union Berlin St. Pauli
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
FC Union Berlin St. Pauli
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
FC Union Berlin
St. Pauli
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
FC Union Berlin
vs
St. Pauli
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
FC Union Berlin St. Pauli
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
FC Union Berlin 0.20
St. Pauli 0.27
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
FC Union Berlin St. Pauli
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
FC Union Berlin 0.03
St. Pauli 0.01
FC Union Berlin
St. Pauli
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

FC Union Berlin FCU Home
3 matches
St. Pauli PAU Away
Match Record
2
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
2
Goals
2
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
2
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-06T00:03:45+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
F. Rønnow
Denmark
1 F. Rønnow
D. Doekhi
Netherlands
5 D. Doekhi
L. Querfeld
Austria
14 L. Querfeld
D. Monteiro Pinto Leite
Portugal
4 D. Monteiro Pinto Leite
J. Haberer
Germany
19 J. Haberer
A. Schafer
Hungary
13 A. Schafer
R. Khedira
Germany
8 R. Khedira
D. Köhn
Substitution
Germany
39 D. Köhn
W. Jeong
Substitution
South Korea
11 W. Jeong
A. Ilić
Serbia
23 A. Ilić
O. Burke
Substitution
Scotland
7 O. Burke
N. Vasilj
Bosnia and Herzegovina
22 N. Vasilj
K. Mets
Estonia
3 K. Mets
H. Wahl
Germany
5 H. Wahl
A. Dźwigała
Poland
25 A. Dźwigała
M. Pereira Lage
Portugal
28 M. Pereira Lage
J. Irvine
Australia
7 J. Irvine
M. Rasmussen
Substitution
Norway
20 M. Rasmussen
A. Pyrka
Poland
11 A. Pyrka
J. Fujita
Substitution
Japan
16 J. Fujita
D. Sinani
Luxembourg
10 D. Sinani
M. Kaars
Substitution
Netherlands
19 M. Kaars

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 05, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 28 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion An der Alten Försterei
Capacity
22012
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Martin Thomsen
Tobias Welz
Florian Lechner
Thorben Siewer

Statistics

Possession
FCU
56%
PAU
44%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 0
4 Shots 3
80 Dangerous attacks 33
55 Possession 45
7 Corners 2
8 Free kicks 10
0 Yellow Cards 2
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

3 Dribble Attempts 5
5 Goal Kicks 8
37 Successful Headers 21
25 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
39 Throwins 24
3 Successful Dribbles 5
62 Ball Safe 68
16 Goal Attempts 9
1 Assists 0
3 Substitutions 3
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

143 Attacks 75

Possession

326 Successful Passes 260
446 Passes 380
41 Long Passes 14
73 Successful Passes Percentage 68
9 Key Passes 6

Defensive

11 Tackles 22
59 Duels Won 58
13 Interceptions 12
0 Saves 4

Build-up

25 Total Crosses 8

Discipline

10 Fouls 8
3 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Tobias Welz

Starting XI ▼

1
Frederik Rönnow
Frederik Rönnow Goalkeeper
4
Diogo Leite
Diogo Leite Defender
5
Danilho Doekhi
Danilho Doekhi Defender
14
Leopold Querfeld
Leopold Querfeld Defender
8
Rani Khedira
Rani Khedira Midfielder
13
András Schäfer
András Schäfer Midfielder
19
Janik Haberer
Janik Haberer Midfielder
39
Derrick Köhn
Derrick Köhn Midfielder
15
Tom Rothe
Tom Rothe
Defender80'
7
Oliver Burke
Oliver Burke Attacker
10
Ilyas Ansah
Ilyas Ansah
Attacker80'
11
Woo-yeong Jeong
Woo-yeong Jeong Attacker
33
Alex Král
Alex Král
Midfielder73'
23
Andrej Ilic
Andrej Ilic Attacker
Referee : Tobias Welz

Starting XI ▼

22
Nikola Vasilj
Nikola Vasilj Goalkeeper
3
Karol Mets
Karol Mets Defender
5
Hauke Wahl
Hauke Wahl Defender
25
Adam Dzwigala
Adam Dzwigala Defender
7
Jackson Irvine
Jackson Irvine Midfielder
11
Arkadiusz Pyrka
Arkadiusz Pyrka Midfielder
20
Mathias Rasmussen
Mathias Rasmussen Midfielder
9
Abdoulie Ceesay
Abdoulie Ceesay
Attacker89'
28
Mathias Pereira Lage
Mathias Pereira Lage Midfielder
10
Danel Sinani
Danel Sinani Attacker
16
Joel Chima Fujita
Joel Chima Fujita Attacker
24
Connor Metcalfe
Connor Metcalfe
Midfielder73'
19
Martijn Kaars
Martijn Kaars Attacker
27
Andréas Hountondji
Andréas Hountondji
Attacker60'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
Jackson Irvine
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
89'
Event
Abdoulie Ceesay → Mathias Rasmussen
6th Substitution
85'
Event
Jackson Irvine
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Tom Rothe → Derrick Köhn
5th Substitution
80'
Event
Ilyas Ansah → Oliver Burke
4th Substitution
80'
Event
Alex Král → Woo-yeong Jeong
2nd Substitution
73'
73'
Event
Connor Metcalfe → Joel Chima Fujita
3rd Substitution
60'
Event
Andréas Hountondji → Martijn Kaars
1st Substitution
Event
Andrej Ilic
Header / 2nd Goal
52'
1ST-HALF
25'
Event
Mathias Pereira Lage
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Adam Dzwigala from FC St. Pauli Hamburg.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jackson Irvine from FC St. Pauli Hamburg receives a second yellow card for a foul.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Rani Khedira of 1. FC Union Berlin.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 4 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with the match finishing 1-1 between 1. FC Union Berlin and FC St. Pauli Hamburg.
90
Update Update
Andrej Ilic from 1. FC Union Berlin committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Andrej Ilic from 1. FC Union Berlin committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Danel Sinani of FC St. Pauli Hamburg won a free kick in defense.
90
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Adam Dzwigala from FC St. Pauli Hamburg takes a left-footed shot from outside the box, but it is saved by goalkeeper Frederik Rønnow of 1. FC Union Berlin, who is positioned in the center of the goal.
90
Attempt Attempt
Andréas Hountondji's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist was provided by Arkadiusz Pyrka.
89
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC St. Pauli Hamburg: Abdoulie Ceesay replaces Mathias Rasmussen.
89
Attempt Attempt
Rani Khedira from 1. FC Union Berlin missed a chance, shooting with his right foot from the left side of the box. The assist came from Tom Rothe, who delivered a cross.
87
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Tom Rothe of 1. FC Union Berlin heads the ball from the left side of the box, but Nikola Vasilj of FC St. Pauli Hamburg makes a save in the top left corner. The assist came from András Schäfer's cross.
86
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jackson Irvine from FC St. Pauli Hamburg receives a yellow card for a foul.
85
Update Update
András Schäfer from 1. FC Union Berlin won a free kick on the right wing.
85
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Mathias Pereira Lage from FC St. Pauli Hamburg.
85
Update Update
Foul committed by Jackson Irvine for FC St. Pauli against Hamburg.
84
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FC Union Berlin after a concession by Arkadiusz Pyrka.
83
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FC Union Berlin after a concession by Arkadiusz Pyrka.
83
Attempt Attempt
Tom Rothe's left-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. The assist came from Rani Khedira's cross.
83
Attempt Attempt
Tom Rothe's left-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. The assist came from Rani Khedira's cross.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for 1. FC Union Berlin: Ilyas Ansah replaces Oliver Burke.
80
Update Update
Diogo Leite of 1. FC Union Berlin is flagged for offside.
80
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for 1. FC Union Berlin: Tom Rothe replaces Derrick Köhn.
79
Update Update
Andrej Ilic from 1. FC Union Berlin won a free kick on the right wing.
79
Update Update
Fouled by Karol Mets of FC St. Pauli Hamburg.
78
Update Update
Andrej Ilic from 1. FC Union Berlin won a free kick in the attacking area.
78
Update Update
Hauke Wahl of FC St. Pauli Hamburg won a free kick in defense.
74
Update Update
Offside called against 1. FC Union Berlin. Andrej Ilic is offside.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for 1. FC Union Berlin: Alex Král replaces Woo-yeong Jeong.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC St. Pauli Hamburg: Connor Metcalfe replaces Joel Chima Fujita.
69
Update Update
Woo-yeong Jeong from 1. FC Union Berlin won a free kick in the attacking area.
69
Update Update
Foul committed by Joel Chima Fujita of FC St. Pauli Hamburg.
68
Update Update
Fouled by Diogo Leite of 1. FC Union Berlin.
68
Update Update
Jackson Irvine of FC St. Pauli Hamburg won a free kick in an attacking position.
67
Attempt Attempt
András Schäfer from 1. FC Union Berlin attempts an attack, shooting with his left foot from the center of the box, but his shot is saved by FC St. Pauli Hamburg's goalkeeper, Nikola Vasilj, in the center of the goal.
67
Update Update
Derrick Köhn from 1. FC Union Berlin commits a foul.
67
Update Update
Arkadiusz Pyrka of FC St. Pauli Hamburg won a free kick in defense.
67
Attempt Attempt
Oliver Burke from 1. FC Union Berlin attempts an attack with a right-footed shot from outside the box, but Nikola Vasilj, the goalkeeper for FC St. Pauli Hamburg, saves it in the center of the goal.
63
Corner Corner
Missed chance. Arkadiusz Pyrka of FC St. Pauli Hamburg shot with his right foot from outside the box, but it went high. The assist was provided by Danel Sinani after a corner.
62
Update Update
Fouled by Woo-yeong Jeong of 1. FC Union Berlin.
62
Update Update
Joel Chima Fujita from FC St. Pauli Hamburg won a free kick in defense.
62
Corner Corner
FC St. Pauli Hamburg wins a corner after Diogo Leite concedes.
61
Update Update
Karol Mets of FC St. Pauli Hamburg won a free kick in defense.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC St. Pauli Hamburg: Andréas Hountondji replaces Martijn Kaars.
59
Attempt Attempt
Danel Sinani from FC St. Pauli Hamburg had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from the right side of the box but missing the target. Arkadiusz Pyrka provided the assist.
58
Attempt Attempt
Oliver Burke's shot from the left side of the box for 1. FC Union Berlin is blocked. Leopold Querfeld provided the assist.
56
Update Update
Foul committed by Adam Dzwigala of FC St. Pauli Hamburg.
56
Update Update
Andrej Ilic from 1. FC Union Berlin won a free kick in defense.
52
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! 1. FC Union Berlin equalizes to 1-1 against FC St. Pauli Hamburg. Andrej Ilic scores with a header from close range into the top left corner, assisted by Derrick Köhn's cross from a corner.
51
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FC Union Berlin, conceded by Jackson Irvine.
51
Update Update
Foul committed by Adam Dzwigala of FC St. Pauli Hamburg.
51
Update Update
Derrick Köhn from 1. FC Union Berlin won a free kick on the left wing.
47
Attempt Attempt
Danel Sinani's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with 1. FC Union Berlin 0, FC St. Pauli Hamburg 1.
45
Update Update
Derrick Köhn from 1. FC Union Berlin misses a chance, shooting with his left foot from outside the box after a free kick, but the ball goes high.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 1 minute of added time.
45
Attempt Attempt
Shot blocked. Woo-yeong Jeong of 1. FC Union Berlin has a right-footed shot from the left side of the box that is blocked.
45
Update Update
Martijn Kaars of FC St. Pauli Hamburg commits a foul.
45
Update Update
Janik Haberer from 1. FC Union Berlin won a free kick in the attacking area.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at 1. FC Union Berlin 0, FC St. Pauli Hamburg 1.
44
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FC Union Berlin after Hauke Wahl concedes.
40
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Oliver Burke from 1. FC Union Berlin takes a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it is saved.
40
Corner Corner
Derrick Köhn from 1. FC Union Berlin attempts an attack, shooting with his left foot from the left side of the box, but Nikola Vasilj from FC St. Pauli Hamburg saves it in the right corner.
36
Update Update
Fouled by Woo-yeong Jeong of 1. FC Union Berlin.
36
Update Update
Arkadiusz Pyrka from FC St. Pauli Hamburg won a free kick in defense.
35
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Andrej Ilic from 1. FC Union Berlin heads the ball from a few meters out, but it's saved.
32
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FC Union Berlin after a concession by Jackson Irvine.
32
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FC Union Berlin after a concession by Adam Dzwigala.
31
Corner Corner
Leopold Querfeld from 1. FC Union Berlin misses a chance, heading the ball high and wide to the right after a corner.
29
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FC Union Berlin after Nikola Vasilj concedes.
28
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FC Union Berlin after Nikola Vasilj concedes.
27
Update Update
Andrej Ilic from 1. FC Union Berlin won a free kick on the left wing.
27
Update Update
Foul committed by Adam Dzwigala of FC St. Pauli Hamburg.
25
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! FC St. Pauli Hamburg takes the lead 1-0 with Mathias Pereira Lage scoring from outside the box with a right-footed shot to the high center of the goal.
25
Attempt Attempt
Goal! FC St. Pauli Hamburg takes the lead 1-0 with Mathias Pereira Lage scoring from outside the box with a right-footed shot to the high center of the goal.
24
Update Update
Rani Khedira commits a foul for 1. FC Union Berlin.
24
Update Update
Danel Sinani from FC St. Pauli Hamburg won a free kick in an attacking position.
22
Corner Corner
Karol Mets from FC St. Pauli Hamburg missed a chance, shooting with his left foot from the center of the box. The assist came from Danel Sinani, who provided a cross after a corner.
21
Corner Corner
FC St. Pauli Hamburg wins a corner after Rani Khedira concedes it.
16
Update Update
Foul committed by Adam Dzwigala of FC St. Pauli Hamburg.
16
Update Update
Foul committed by Adam Dzwigala of FC St. Pauli Hamburg.
15
Update Update
Andrej Ilic from 1. FC Union Berlin won a free kick on the left wing.
13
Update Update
Joel Chima Fujita of FC St. Pauli Hamburg won a free kick on the left wing.
13
Update Update
Foul committed by Leopold Querfeld of 1. FC Union Berlin.
12
Update Update
Andrej Ilic of 1. FC Union Berlin is flagged for offside.
6
Corner Corner
Missed chance. Leopold Querfeld of 1. FC Union Berlin heads the ball from the right side of the six-yard box after a corner.
4
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FC Union Berlin after Nikola Vasilj concedes.
4
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to 1. FC Union Berlin after Nikola Vasilj concedes.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: FC Union Berlin exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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