Örgryte vs Malmö FF Prediction, Preview and Stats

Sweden flag 2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden
Gamla Ullevi Sun, 5 Apr - 2:30 PM
Allsvenskan
Örgryte Örgryte
1 – 1
Malmö FF MAL
Full Time Sun, 5 Apr 2:30 PM
Round 1 Regular Season
Goal
|
Goal

CONTEXT

The match has officially finished with Örgryte and Malmö FF playing out a 1-1 draw. After a tightly contested first half that ended completely even at 0-0, both sides managed to find the back of the net in the second period. Malmö FF controlled the tempo with 58% of the possession, leaving Örgryte to operate on 42% of the ball. The final result was a major surprise and did not align with the pre-match market. Malmö FF entered the contest as the clear stronger team, holding a 59.8% implied probability of victory compared to Örgryte's slim 16.8% chance, with a draw priced at 23.3%. Consequently, the stalemate represents a significant deviation from expectations, heavily frustrating the favored Malmö FF side. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to determine if the outcome aligned with the underlying chance quality. However, the efficiency shift for both squads remained in line with standard performance metrics throughout the ninety minutes. Finally, the game was played fairly without any major disciplinary impacts, as neither team received a red card.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Malmö FF showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Sars

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

R. Wilde

1st Assistant

S. Kristensson

2nd Assistant

Elvir Gërxhaliu

4th Official

Örgryte A. Holmberg
A. Holmberg
VS
Malmö FF M. Ramírez
M. Ramírez
0
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.4
0 i
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.4 i
Last 6 Opponents
GAIS Rank: 59 W
Häcken Rank: 57 D
Hammarby Rank: 69 L
Norrköping Rank: 46 W
Sirius Rank: 59 L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Örgryte
16.82%
Draw
23.34%
Away Malmö FF
59.84%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
37.84
62.26
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Örgryte
Malmö FF
Power Score
37.84
62.26
League Position
5
6
Global Rank
970
391

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Örgryte — Opponent-weighted form score
Malmö FF — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Örgryte Malmö FF

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Örgryte

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Malmö FF

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Örgryte ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Malmö FF
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
39.17
36.90
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
36.90
39.17
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Örgryte +0.23 Efficiency Index
vs
Malmö FF -0.23 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Örgryte
Malmö FF
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Örgryte ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Malmö FF
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Örgryte Malmö FF
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Örgryte Malmö FF
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Örgryte
Malmö FF
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Örgryte
vs
Malmö FF
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Örgryte Malmö FF
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Örgryte 0.52
Malmö FF 0.40
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Örgryte Malmö FF
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Örgryte 0.02
Malmö FF 0.03
Örgryte
Malmö FF
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 6 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Örgryte Örgryte Home
6 matches
Malmö FF MAL Away
Match Record
1
Wins
4
1
Draws
1
4
Losses
1
Goals
5
Goals Scored
11
11
Goals Conceded
5
-6
Goal Difference
+6

Data last updated: 2026-04-06T00:04:11+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
R. Olsen
Sweden
1 R. Olsen
N. Åstrand John
Substitution
Sweden
23 N. Åstrand John
C. Rosler
Norway
19 C. Rosler
P. Jansson
Sweden
18 P. Jansson
J. Karlsson
Substitution
Sweden
2 J. Karlsson
A. Sigurdsson
Substitution
Iceland
8 A. Sigurdsson
Y. Karabelyov
Substitution
Bulgaria
6 Y. Karabelyov
O. Rosengren
Sweden
7 O. Rosengren
T. Ali
Sweden
22 T. Ali
A. Christiansen
Substitution
Denmark
10 A. Christiansen
E. Botheim
Norway
20 E. Botheim

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 05, 2026, 02:30 PM
Competition :
2026 Allsvenskan, Sweden · Round 1 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Gamla Ullevi
Capacity :
18416
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Robin Wilde
Simon Kristensson
Elvir Gërxhaliu
Joakim Sars

Statistics

Possession
Örgryte
44%
MAL
56%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 1
5 Shots 10
29 Dangerous attacks 48
42 Possession 58
5 Corners 10
10 Free kicks 10
1 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

5 Successful Dribbles 7
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 41
21 Throwins 24
72 Ball Safe 63
10 Dribble Attempts 17
16 Goal Kicks 5
6 Goal Attempts 16
5 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 0

Attacking

75 Attacks 108
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

328 Passes 444
47 Long Passes 55
250 Successful Passes 358
76 Successful Passes Percentage 81
9 Key Passes 15
15 Successful Long Passes 22
32 Successful Long Passes Percentage 40

Defensive

16 Tackles 17
44 Duels Won 44
5 Saves 6
5 Interceptions 12

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 26
3 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

10 Fouls 10
0 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Joakim Sars

Starting XI ▼

44
Hampus Gustafsson
Hampus Gustafsson Goalkeeper
2
Michael Parker
Michael Parker Defender
5
Christoffer Styffe
Christoffer Styffe Defender
33
S. Lagerlund
S. Lagerlund
Defender90+2'
6
Mikael Dyrestam
Mikael Dyrestam Defender
8
Benjamin Laturnus
Benjamin Laturnus Midfielder
15
Jerome Tibbling Ugwo
Jerome Tibbling Ugwo
Attacker82'
14
Daniel Paulson
Daniel Paulson Midfielder
19
Anton Andreasson
Anton Andreasson Midfielder
24
William Svensson
William Svensson
Defender82'
23
Owen Parker-Price
Owen Parker-Price Midfielder
11
Noah Christoffersson
Noah Christoffersson Attacker
25
Demirel Hodzic
Demirel Hodzic
Midfielder82'
17
William Hofvander
William Hofvander Attacker
10
Rasmus Alm
Rasmus Alm
Midfielder72'
22
Tobias Sana
Tobias Sana Attacker
Referee : Joakim Sars

Starting XI ▼

1
Robin Olsen
Robin Olsen Goalkeeper
2
Johan Karlsson
Johan Karlsson Defender
17
Jens Stryger Larsen
Jens Stryger Larsen
Defender89'
18
Pontus Jansson
Pontus Jansson Defender
19
Colin Rösler
Colin Rösler Defender
23
N. Åstrand John
N. Åstrand John Defender
47
Theodor Lundbergh
Theodor Lundbergh
Midfielder46'
6
Yanis Karabelyov
Yanis Karabelyov Midfielder
40
Kenan Busuladzic
Kenan Busuladzic
Midfielder62'
7
Otto Rosengren
Otto Rosengren Midfielder
8
Arnór Sigurdsson
Arnór Sigurdsson Midfielder
24
Oscar Sjöstrand
Oscar Sjöstrand
Midfielder62'
22
Taha Ali
Taha Ali Midfielder
10
Anders Christiansen
Anders Christiansen Attacker
29
Sead Haksabanovic
Sead Haksabanovic
Midfielder72'
20
Erik Botheim
Erik Botheim Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
S. Lagerlund → Christoffer Styffe
10th Substitution
90+2'
89'
Event
Jens Stryger Larsen → Johan Karlsson
9th Substitution
88'
Event
Pontus Jansson
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Jerome Tibbling Ugwo → Benjamin Laturnus
8th Substitution
82'
Event
Demirel Hodzic → Noah Christoffersson
6th Substitution
82'
Event
William Svensson → Anton Andreasson
7th Substitution
82'
80'
Event
Otto Rosengren
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
74'
Event
Theodor Lundbergh
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
73'
Event
Erik Botheim
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Rasmus Alm → William Hofvander
4th Substitution
72'
72'
Event
Sead Haksabanovic → Anders Christiansen
5th Substitution
62'
Event
Oscar Sjöstrand → Arnór Sigurdsson
3rd Substitution
62'
Event
Kenan Busuladzic → Yanis Karabelyov
2nd Substitution
Event
Anton Andreasson
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
51'
46'
Event
Theodor Lundbergh → N. Åstrand John
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Daniel Paulson
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
34'
8'
Event
N. Åstrand John
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Malmö FF exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.