SK Rapid vs Sturm Graz Prediction, Preview and Stats

Austria flag 2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
Allianz Stadion Sun, 5 Apr - 3:00 PM
Admiral Bundesliga
SK Rapid SCR
0 Winner 2
Sturm Graz STU
Full Time Sun, 5 Apr 3:00 PM
Round 3 Championship Round
|
Goal
Albert Vallci - 13'
Seedy Jatta - 52'

CONTEXT

The match between SK Rapid and Sturm Graz has finished, with Sturm Graz claiming a 1-0 away victory. The visitors took the lead in the first half and held their 1-0 advantage through the halftime break to the final whistle. This outcome represented a significant deviation from pre-match expectations. The markets heavily favored SK Rapid with a 46.9% probability of winning, while Sturm Graz was given just a 25.3% chance, alongside a 27.8% probability of a draw. Consequently, the final result did not align with the pre-match market. SK Rapid dominated the ball, holding 66% of the possession compared to Sturm Graz's 34%, but failed to convert their territorial advantage into goals. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to determine if the outcome was consistent with the underlying chance quality. However, overall efficiency shifts were recorded as being in line with standard expectations. The match concluded without any major disciplinary disruptions, as neither side received a red card. Ultimately, despite SK Rapid controlling the possession, Sturm Graz proved to be the stronger team on the day, defying the pre-match odds to secure the win.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Sturm Graz showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
S. Gishamer
S. Gishamer
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.23
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.4
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.37
S. Schreiner
S. Schreiner
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.23
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.4
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.37
R. Brandner
R. Brandner
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.23
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.4
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.37
S. Ebner
S. Ebner
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.23
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.4
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.37
SK Rapid J. Hoff Thorup
J. Hoff Thorup
VS
Sturm Graz F. Ingolitsch
F. Ingolitsch
1.38
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.59
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
LASK Linz Rank: 65 W
Salzburg Rank: 69 W
Salzburg Rank: 69 W
Rheindorf Altach Rank: 53 D
Wolfsberger AC Rank: 59 W
Austria Wien Rank: 65 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Salzburg Rank: 68 D
Austria Wien Rank: 66 W
Rheindorf Altach Rank: 53 W
Wolfsberger AC Rank: 59 D
Blau-Weiß Linz Rank: 48 W
WSG Tirol Rank: 54 L
31
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
31 - 25 - 26
26

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home SK Rapid
46.88%
Draw
27.78%
Away Sturm Graz
25.34%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
60.01
68.84
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
SK Rapid
Sturm Graz
Power Score
60.01
68.84
League Position
5
1
Global Rank
470
214

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
SK Rapid — Opponent-weighted form score
Sturm Graz — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) SK Rapid Sturm Graz

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

SK Rapid

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sturm Graz

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

SK Rapid ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sturm Graz
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
10.76
53.38
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
53.38
10.76
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
SK Rapid -3.32 Efficiency Index
vs
Sturm Graz +3.32 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
SK Rapid
Sturm Graz
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

SK Rapid ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sturm Graz
Created Set-piece attacking threat
SK Rapid Sturm Graz
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
SK Rapid Sturm Graz
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
SK Rapid
Sturm Graz
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
SK Rapid
vs
Sturm Graz
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
SK Rapid Sturm Graz
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
SK Rapid 0.12
Sturm Graz 0.37
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
SK Rapid Sturm Graz
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
SK Rapid 0.05
Sturm Graz 0.00
SK Rapid
Sturm Graz
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 82 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

SK Rapid SCR Home
82 matches
Sturm Graz STU Away
Match Record
31
Wins
26
25
Draws
25
26
Losses
31
Goals
121
Goals Scored
107
107
Goals Conceded
121
+14
Goal Difference
-14
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-06T00:04:29+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
N. Hedl
Austria
1 N. Hedl
N. Cvetković
Serbia
55 N. Cvetković
S. Raux Yao
France
6 S. Raux Yao
K. Ahoussou
Substitution
Ivory Coast
20 K. Ahoussou
B. Bolla
Hungary
77 B. Bolla
M. Seidl
Austria
18 M. Seidl
A. Romeo
Ivory Coast
29 A. Romeo
T. Gulliksen
Substitution
Norway
17 T. Gulliksen
N. Wurmbrand
Substitution
Austria
15 N. Wurmbrand
J. Antiste
Substitution
France
90 J. Antiste
A. Weimann
Austria
26 A. Weimann
D. Khudyakov
Russia
53 D. Khudyakov
P. Koller
Austria
30 P. Koller
J. Mitchell
Costa Rica
2 J. Mitchell
A. Vallci
Austria
5 A. Vallci
J. Hödl
Substitution
Austria
43 J. Hödl
L. Weinhandl
Austria
39 L. Weinhandl
J. Gorenc Stankovič
Slovenia
4 J. Gorenc Stankovič
J. Gazibegovic
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
22 J. Gazibegovic
G. Mamageishvili
Substitution
Georgia
15 G. Mamageishvili
F. Rózga
Substitution
Poland
8 F. Rózga
S. Jatta
Substitution
Norway
20 S. Jatta

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 05, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria · Round 3 · Championship Round
Stadium
Allianz Stadion
Capacity
28345
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Sebastian Gishamer
Santino Schreiner
Roland Brandner
Stefan Ebner

Statistics

Possession
SCR
61%
STU
39%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
0 Big Chances Created 1
4 Shots 9
42 Dangerous attacks 43
66 Possession 34
5 Corners 8
14 Free kicks 10
4 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

5 Goal Attempts 10
41 Successful Dribbles Percentage 26
17 Dribble Attempts 19
17 Throwins 17
7 Successful Dribbles 5
96 Ball Safe 65
1 Injuries 1
9 Goal Kicks 12
0 Hit Woodwork 1
4 Substitutions 5

Attacking

71 Attacks 75

Possession

395 Successful Passes 158
6 Key Passes 13
85 Successful Passes Percentage 66
465 Passes 238
51 Long Passes 52
24 Successful Long Passes 13
47 Successful Long Passes Percentage 25

Defensive

54 Duels Won 38
5 Saves 0
8 Interceptions 7
20 Tackles 13

Build-up

16 Total Crosses 12
3 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

10 Fouls 14
2 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Sebastian Gishamer

Starting XI ▼

1
Niklas Hedl
Niklas Hedl Goalkeeper
6
Serge-Philippe Raux-Yao
Serge-Philippe Raux-Yao Defender
20
Ange Ahoussou
Ange Ahoussou Defender
9
Ercan Kara
Ercan Kara
Attacker71'
55
Nenad Cvetkovic
Nenad Cvetkovic Defender
17
Tobias Gulliksen
Tobias Gulliksen Midfielder
10
Petter Nosa Dahl
Petter Nosa Dahl
Attacker57'
18
Matthias Seidl
Matthias Seidl Midfielder
29
Romeo Amane
Romeo Amane Midfielder
77
Bendegúz Bolla
Bendegúz Bolla Midfielder
15
Nikolaus Wurmbrand
Nikolaus Wurmbrand Attacker
22
Yusuf Demir
Yusuf Demir
Attacker71'
26
Andreas Weimann
Andreas Weimann Attacker
90
Janis Antiste
Janis Antiste Attacker
7
Marco Tilio
Marco Tilio
Attacker71'
Referee : Sebastian Gishamer

Starting XI ▼

53
Daniil Khudyakov
Daniil Khudyakov Goalkeeper
2
Jeyland Mitchell
Jeyland Mitchell Defender
5
Albert Vallci
Albert Vallci Defender
30
Paul Koller
Paul Koller Defender
4
Jon Gorenc Stankovic
Jon Gorenc Stankovic Midfielder
22
Jusuf Gazibegovic
Jusuf Gazibegovic Midfielder
23
Arjan Malic
Arjan Malic
Defender59'
39
Luca Weinhandl
Luca Weinhandl Midfielder
43
Jacob Peter Hödl
Jacob Peter Hödl Midfielder
80
Ryan Fosso
Ryan Fosso
Midfielder73'
8
Filip Rózga
Filip Rózga Attacker
25
Stefan Hierländer
Stefan Hierländer
Midfielder81'
15
Gizo Mamageishvili
Gizo Mamageishvili Attacker
10
Otar Kiteishvili
Otar Kiteishvili
Midfielder73'
20
Seedy Jatta
Seedy Jatta Attacker
77
Maurice Malone
Maurice Malone
Attacker73'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Marco Tilio
Argument / 8th Yellowcard
90+1'
81'
Event
Stefan Hierländer → Filip Rózga
9th Substitution
80'
Event
Filip Rózga
7th Yellowcard
73'
Event
Otar Kiteishvili → Gizo Mamageishvili
7th Substitution
73'
Event
Ryan Fosso → Jacob Peter Hödl
6th Substitution
73'
Event
Maurice Malone → Seedy Jatta
8th Substitution
Event
Yusuf Demir → Nikolaus Wurmbrand
3rd Substitution
71'
Event
Marco Tilio → Janis Antiste
5th Substitution
71'
Event
Ercan Kara → Ange Ahoussou
4th Substitution
71'
Event
Ange Ahoussou
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
68'
68'
Event
Jeyland Mitchell
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
59'
Event
Arjan Malic → Jusuf Gazibegovic
2nd Substitution
Event
Petter Nosa Dahl → Tobias Gulliksen
1st Substitution
57'
Event
Tobias Gulliksen
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
56'
52'
Event
Seedy Jatta
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
1ST-HALF
36'
Event
Jacob Peter Hödl
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Bendegúz Bolla
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
34'
34'
Event
Gizo Mamageishvili
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
34'
Event
9th Yellowcard
13'
Event
Albert Vallci
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Sturm Graz exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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