Lorient vs Paris Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir Sun, 5 Apr - 3:15 PM
Ligue 1
Lorient LOR
1 – 1
Paris PFC
Full Time Sun, 5 Apr 3:15 PM
Round 28 Regular Season
Bamba Dieng - 54'
Goal
|
Goal
Marshall Munetsi - 74'

CONTEXT

The match between Lorient and Paris has officially finished, resulting in a 1-1 full-time draw. After a tightly contested first half that ended completely goalless, both sides managed to find the back of the net in the second period to ultimately share the points. This result represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, frustrating Lorient, who entered the contest as the naturally stronger side. The betting markets favored the home team, giving Lorient a 40% probability of victory compared to a 31.5% chance for Paris and a 28.5% chance for a draw. Consequently, the drawn outcome failed to align with the pre-match market forecast. On the pitch, the possession battle was incredibly close. Paris slightly edged the ball control with 51%, leaving Lorient with 49%. While expected goals (xG) data was unavailable to determine if the final score was consistent with the exact quality of chances created, the overall efficiency shift was completely in line with the flow of the match. Finally, the game was contested fairly without any severe disciplinary interventions, as neither side received a red card to alter the tactical balance.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Lorient showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
G. Angoula
G. Angoula
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.86
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.88
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
J. Garrigues
J. Garrigues
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.86
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.88
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
H. Zakrani
H. Zakrani
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.86
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.88
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
A. Baert
A. Baert
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.86
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.88
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Lorient O. Pantaloni
O. Pantaloni
VS
Paris A. Kombouare
A. Kombouare
1.5
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.05
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Toulouse Rank: 73 L
Lens Rank: 83 W
LOSC Lille Rank: 80 D
Auxerre Rank: 69 D
Nice Rank: 70 D
Angers SCO Rank: 67 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Le Havre Rank: 67 W
Strasbourg Rank: 80 D
Olympique Lyonnais Rank: 80 D
Nice Rank: 70 W
Toulouse Rank: 74 D
Lens Rank: 81 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lorient
40.04%
Draw
28.45%
Away Paris
31.51%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
61.15
58.19
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lorient
Paris
Power Score
61.15
58.19
League Position
9
13
Global Rank
132
211

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Lorient — Opponent-weighted form score
Paris — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lorient Paris

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Lorient

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Paris

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Lorient ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Paris
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
24.80
20.49
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.49
24.80
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Lorient +0.44 Efficiency Index
vs
Paris -0.44 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Lorient
Paris
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Lorient ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Paris
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Lorient Paris
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Lorient Paris
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Lorient
Paris
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Lorient
vs
Paris
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Lorient Paris
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Lorient 0.23
Paris 0.10
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Lorient Paris
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Lorient 0.01
Paris 0.02
Lorient
Paris
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lorient LOR Home
1 matches
Paris PFC Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
0
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-06T00:04:40+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
Y. Mvogo
Switzerland
38 Y. Mvogo
A. Meité
France
5 A. Meité
M. Talbi
Tunisia
3 M. Talbi
A. Faye
Senegal
25 A. Faye
T. Le Bris
Substitution
France
11 T. Le Bris
N. Cadiou
France
8 N. Cadiou
A. Ebong Avon
Cameroon
62 A. Ebong Avon
K. Kouassi
Burkina Faso
43 K. Kouassi
J. Makengo
Substitution
France
17 J. Makengo
P. Pagis
Substitution
France
10 P. Pagis
Bamba Dieng
Substitution
Senegal
12 Bamba Dieng
K. Trapp
Germany
35 K. Trapp
N. Sangui
France
19 N. Sangui
M. Mbow
Senegal
5 M. Mbow
D. Coppola
Italy
42 D. Coppola
A. Camara
Substitution
France
17 A. Camara
M. Lopez
Substitution
France
21 M. Lopez
P. Lees Melou
France
33 P. Lees Melou
M. Simon
Substitution
Nigeria
27 M. Simon
M. Munetsi
Zimbabwe
18 M. Munetsi
N. Ikoné
Substitution
France
93 N. Ikoné
W. Geubbels
Substitution
France
9 W. Geubbels

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 05, 2026, 03:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 28 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir
Capacity
18110
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Gaël Angoula
Julien Garrigues
Hicham Zakrani
Arnaud Baert

Statistics

Possession
LOR
50%
PFC
50%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 3
4 Shots 0
43 Dangerous attacks 69
49 Possession 51
5 Corners 6
6 Free kicks 8
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

14 Successful Headers 10
62 Ball Safe 59
7 Goal Attempts 6
8 Successful Dribbles 5
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 45
7 Goal Kicks 8
14 Throwins 19
16 Dribble Attempts 11
1 Assists 0
1 Hit Woodwork 0
4 Substitutions 5
2 Injuries 0

Attacking

87 Attacks 98
2 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

87 Successful Passes Percentage 87
9 Key Passes 5
386 Successful Passes 389
50 Long Passes 43
444 Passes 447
60 Successful Long Passes Percentage 49
30 Successful Long Passes 21

Defensive

4 Saves 2
40 Duels Won 40
12 Tackles 17
8 Interceptions 10

Build-up

26 Total Crosses 31
7 Accurate Crosses 9

Discipline

8 Fouls 6
3 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Gaël Angoula

Starting XI ▼

38
Yvon Mvogo
Yvon Mvogo Goalkeeper
3
Montassar Talbi
Montassar Talbi Defender
5
Bamo Meïté
Bamo Meïté Defender
25
Abdoulaye Faye
Abdoulaye Faye Defender
8
Noah Doriann Cadiou
Noah Doriann Cadiou Midfielder
11
Théo Le Bris
Théo Le Bris Midfielder
77
Panos Katseris
Panos Katseris
Defender81'
43
Arsène Kouassi
Arsène Kouassi Midfielder
62
Arthur Avom
Arthur Avom Midfielder
10
Pablo Pagis
Pablo Pagis Attacker
29
Karim Dermane
Karim Dermane
Midfielder72'
12
Bamba Dieng
Bamba Dieng Attacker
28
Sambou Soumano
Sambou Soumano
Attacker67'
17
Jean-Victor Makengo
Jean-Victor Makengo Attacker
15
Aiyegun Tosin
Aiyegun Tosin
Attacker72'
Referee : Gaël Angoula

Starting XI ▼

35
Kevin Trapp
Kevin Trapp Goalkeeper
5
Moustapha Mbow
Moustapha Mbow Defender
17
Adama Camara
Adama Camara Defender
7
Alimami Gory
Alimami Gory
Attacker70'
19
Nhoa Sangui
Nhoa Sangui Defender
42
Diego Coppola
Diego Coppola Defender
18
Marshall Munetsi
Marshall Munetsi Midfielder
21
Maxime Lopez
Maxime Lopez Midfielder
14
Hamari Traoré
Hamari Traoré
Defender71'
27
Moses Simon
Moses Simon Midfielder
31
Samir Chergui
Samir Chergui
Defender90+3'
33
Pierre Lees-Melou
Pierre Lees-Melou Midfielder
93
Jonathan Ikoné
Jonathan Ikoné Midfielder
10
Ilan Kebbal
Ilan Kebbal
Midfielder70'
9
Willem Geubbels
Willem Geubbels Attacker
24
Luca Koleosho
Luca Koleosho
Attacker71'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
Samir Chergui → Moses Simon
9th Substitution
Event
Arsène Kouassi
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
85'
Event
Panos Katseris → Théo Le Bris
8th Substitution
81'
79'
Event
Pierre Lees-Melou
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
74'
Event
Marshall Munetsi
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Karim Dermane → Pablo Pagis
6th Substitution
72'
Event
Aiyegun Tosin → Jean-Victor Makengo
7th Substitution
72'
71'
Event
Hamari Traoré → Maxime Lopez
5th Substitution
71'
Event
Luca Koleosho → Willem Geubbels
4th Substitution
70'
Event
Ilan Kebbal → Jonathan Ikoné
3rd Substitution
70'
Event
Alimami Gory → Adama Camara
2nd Substitution
Event
Sambou Soumano → Bamba Dieng
1st Substitution
67'
Event
Bamba Dieng
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
54'
50'
Event
Adama Camara
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The second half ends with the match finishing 1-1 between Lorient and Paris FC.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Sambou Soumano of Lorient.
90
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Samir Chergui of Paris FC takes a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but Yvon Mvogo of Lorient saves it in the center of the goal. The assist was provided by Ilan Kebbal.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 6 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Marshall Munetsi of Paris FC.
90
Update Update
Marshall Munetsi of Paris FC won a free kick in defense.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Paris FC: Samir Chergui replaces Moses Simon.
89
Update Update
Offside called against Lorient. Aiyegun Tosin is offside.
88
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Aiyegun Tosin from Lorient shot with his right foot from the center of the box.
86
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Hamari Traoré of Paris FC.
85
Update Update
Foul committed by Arsène Kouassi of Lorient.
85
Attempt Attempt
Noah Cadiou from Lorient attempts an attack with a right-footed shot from outside the box, but Kevin Trapp from Paris FC saves it in the top center of the goal. The assist was provided by Sambou Soumano.
85
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Arsène Kouassi from Lorient receives a yellow card for a foul.
85
Update Update
Hamari Traoré of Paris FC won a free kick in defense.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lorient: Panos Katseris replaces Théo Le Bris.
81
Update Update
Ilan Kebbal from Paris FC won a free kick in defense.
81
Update Update
Foul committed by Bamo Meïté of Lorient.
79
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Pierre Lees-Melou from Paris FC receives a yellow card for a foul.
79
Update Update
Arsène Kouassi from Lorient won a free kick in the attacking area.
79
Update Update
Foul committed by Pierre Lees-Melou of Paris FC.
78
Corner Corner
Lorient wins a corner after Moustapha Mbow concedes.
75
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Bamo Meïté from Lorient.
74
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Paris FC after Yvon Mvogo concedes.
74
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The match is now 1-1 as Marshall Munetsi scores for Paris FC with a close-range shot after a corner.
74
Update Update
Diego Coppola of Paris FC attempts a header from the center of the box, but Yvon Mvogo of Lorient makes a save in the top center of the goal. The assist came from Pierre Lees-Melou's cross.
73
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Paris FC after Abdoulaye Faye concedes.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lorient: Aiyegun Tosin replaces Jean-Victor Makengo.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lorient: Dermane Karim replaces Pablo Pagis.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Paris FC: Hamari Traoré replaces Maxime Lopez.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Paris FC: Luca Koleosho replaces Willem Geubbels.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Paris FC: Ilan Kebbal replaces Jonathan Ikoné.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Paris FC: Luca Koleosho replaces Willem Geubbels.
68
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Paris FC after Abdoulaye Faye concedes.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lorient: Sambou Soumano replaces Bamba Dieng.
66
Attempt Attempt
Jean-Victor Makengo from Lorient hits the left post with a left-footed shot from outside the box, assisted by Noah Cadiou after a fast break.
66
Update Update
Pierre Lees-Melou of Paris FC won a free kick in defense.
66
Update Update
Foul committed by Arthur Avom of Lorient.
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Paris FC after a concession by Arsène Kouassi.
60
Attempt Attempt
Jonathan Ikoné from Paris FC had a missed chance, shooting with his left foot from the center of the box but missing to the left. Maxime Lopez provided the assist.
54
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Lorient leads 1-0 against Paris FC. Bamba Dieng scores for Lorient with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, assisted by Pablo Pagis who provided a cross after a corner.
53
Corner Corner
Lorient wins a corner after Pierre Lees-Melou concedes.
50
Update Update
Foul committed by Adama Camara of Paris FC.
50
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Arthur Avom from Lorient.
50
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Adama Camara of Paris FC receives a yellow card for a foul.
50
Update Update
Arthur Avom from Lorient won a free kick on the left wing.
47
Update Update
Jean-Victor Makengo of Lorient won a free kick in defense.
47
Update Update
Jean-Victor Makengo from Lorient won a free kick in defense.
47
Update Update
Foul committed by Pierre Lees-Melou of Paris FC.
46
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Bamba Dieng from Lorient.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Lorient and Paris FC tied 0-0.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 1 minute of added time.
45
Corner Corner
Nhoa Sangui from Paris FC makes an attacking attempt, shooting with his left foot from the left side of the box, but Yvon Mvogo from Lorient saves it in the left corner.
45
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Jonathan Ikoné from Paris FC has a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but it's saved in the left corner by Yvon Mvogo from Lorient. The assist came from Moses Simon.
45
Attempt Attempt
Arthur Avom's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at 0-0 between Lorient and Paris FC.
44
Update Update
Arsène Kouassi from Lorient won a free kick on the left wing.
44
Update Update
Foul by Adama Camara of Paris FC.
41
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Paris FC after a concession by Théo Le Bris.
39
Update Update
Jonathan Ikoné of Paris FC won a free kick on the right wing.
39
Update Update
Fouled by Abdoulaye Faye of Lorient.
36
Corner Corner
Lorient wins a corner after Pierre Lees-Melou concedes.
34
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Théo Le Bris from Lorient takes a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it's saved in the right corner by Kevin Trapp from Paris FC. The assist came from Pablo Pagis with a cross.
34
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Kevin Trapp from Paris FC.
33
Corner Corner
Lorient wins a corner after Moustapha Mbow concedes.
33
Corner Corner
Lorient wins a corner after Moustapha Mbow concedes.
31
Update Update
Pablo Pagis from Lorient misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, but the ball goes high. The assist was provided by Jean-Victor Makengo during a fast break.
29
Update Update
Willem Geubbels of Paris FC won a free kick in defense.
29
Update Update
Willem Geubbels of Paris FC won a free kick in defense.
24
Update Update
Offside called against Lorient. Arsène Kouassi is offside.
24
Corner Corner
Lorient wins a corner after Willem Geubbels concedes.
23
Attempt Attempt
Pablo Pagis of Lorient has a shot with his right foot from a difficult position and long distance on the left, but it's blocked.
22
Update Update
Arsène Kouassi from Lorient won a free kick on the left wing.
22
Update Update
Foul committed by Pierre Lees-Melou for Paris FC.
20
Update Update
Nhoa Sangui of Paris FC won a free kick in defense.
20
Update Update
Foul committed by Arthur Avom of Lorient.
15
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Paris FC after Noah Cadiou concedes.
8
Update Update
Bamba Dieng of Lorient is flagged for offside.
4
Update Update
Bamo Meïté of Lorient commits a handball.
2
Update Update
Willem Geubbels of Paris FC commits a handball.
1
Attempt Attempt
Bamba Dieng from Lorient had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box, but it went just left of the target.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Lorient exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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