Almería vs Leganés Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos Sun, 5 Apr - 4:30 PM
La Liga 2
Almería ALM
2 Winner 1
Leganés LEG
Full Time Sun, 5 Apr 4:30 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Sergio Arribas - 31'
Nico Melamed - 90+1'
Goal
|
Goal
Gonzalo Melero - 13'

CONTEXT

The match between Almería and Leganés has finished, with Almería securing a 2-1 victory at full-time. The two sides went into the break evenly matched at 1-1, but the home side pulled ahead in the second half to claim the win. Heading into the fixture, Almería were the clear favorites with a 60.4% pre

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Almería showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
A. Morilla Turrión
A. Morilla Turrión
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.49
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.46
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.32
A. Gutiérrez Martino
A. Gutiérrez Martino
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.49
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.46
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.32
M. Camacho Garrote
M. Camacho Garrote
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.49
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.46
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.32
M. Herrera Ruiz
M. Herrera Ruiz
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 19.49
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 4.46
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.14
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.32
Almería J. Ferrer Sicilia
J. Ferrer Sicilia
VS
Leganés I. Oca Pulido
I. Oca Pulido
1.84
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.16
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Castellón Rank: 65 L
Real Sociedad II Rank: 62 W
Huesca Rank: 59 W
Real Zaragoza Rank: 57 L
Cultural Leonesa Rank: 58 W
Albacete Rank: 66 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Real Zaragoza Rank: 60 D
Málaga Rank: 69 D
Ceuta Rank: 62 W
Real Valladolid Rank: 60 L
SD Eibar Rank: 69 L
Sporting Gijón Rank: 64 D
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 2 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Almería
60.41%
Draw
22.57%
Away Leganés
17.02%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
70.08
59.6
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Almería
Leganés
Power Score
70.08
59.6
League Position
2
16
Global Rank
186
301

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Almería — Opponent-weighted form score
Leganés — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Almería Leganés

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Almería

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Leganés

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Almería ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Leganés
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.88
27.66
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
27.66
30.88
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Almería +0.33 Efficiency Index
vs
Leganés -0.33 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Almería
Leganés
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Almería ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Leganés
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Almería Leganés
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Almería Leganés
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Almería
Leganés
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Almería
vs
Leganés
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Almería Leganés
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Almería 0.30
Leganés 0.47
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Almería Leganés
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Almería 0.06
Leganés 0.03
Almería
Leganés
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 8 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Almería ALM Home
8 matches
Leganés LEG Away
Match Record
3
Wins
3
2
Draws
2
3
Losses
3
Goals
14
Goals Scored
12
12
Goals Conceded
14
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-06T00:05:40+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
A. Fernández Moreno
Spain
1 A. Fernández Moreno
M. Ruiz
Spain
16 M. Ruiz
R. Ely
Brazil
5 R. Ely
F. Bonini
Italy
18 F. Bonini
A. Muñoz Miguel
Spain
3 A. Muñoz Miguel
I. Mohammed
Substitution
Ghana
14 I. Mohammed
D. Lopy
Senegal
17 D. Lopy
A. Puigmal Martínez
Substitution
Spain
2 A. Puigmal Martínez
S. Arribas Calvo
Substitution
Spain
11 S. Arribas Calvo
A. Embarba Blázquez
Substitution
Spain
23 A. Embarba Blázquez
M. De la Fuente Escudero
Substitution
Spain
24 M. De la Fuente Escudero
J. Soriano Oropesa
Spain
1 J. Soriano Oropesa
M. Antolín Garzón
Spain
2 M. Antolín Garzón
I. Miquel i Pons
Spain
5 I. Miquel i Pons
A. Diawara
Guinea
24 A. Diawara
N. García García
Spain
17 N. García García
S. Cisse
Guinea
8 S. Cisse
G. Melero Manzanares
Substitution
Spain
16 G. Melero Manzanares
S. Figueredo Vilar del Valle
Substitution
Uruguay
22 S. Figueredo Vilar del Valle
D. Rodríguez Vázquez
Substitution
Spain
9 D. Rodríguez Vázquez
D. García Campos
Substitution
Spain
19 D. García Campos
L. Nlavo Asue
Substitution
Equatorial Guinea
12 L. Nlavo Asue

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 05, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos
Capacity
17400
Attendance
13726
Pitch Surface
N/A
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Alejandro Morilla Turrión
Alaiz Gutiérrez Martino
Manuel Camacho Garrote
Manuel Herrera Ruiz

Statistics

Possession
ALM
65%
LEG
35%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 1
5 Shots 6
60 Dangerous attacks 17
68 Possession 32
5 Corners 1
11 Free kicks 13
3 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

3 Goal Kicks 14
30 Throwins 18
45 Successful Dribbles Percentage 23
9 Successful Dribbles 3
20 Dribble Attempts 13
5 Substitutions 5
2 Assists 1
75 Ball Safe 64
0 Injuries 2
15 Goal Attempts 5

Attacking

135 Attacks 78
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

86 Successful Passes Percentage 69
466 Successful Passes 172
540 Passes 250
56 Long Passes 62
12 Key Passes 3
37 Successful Long Passes 23
66 Successful Long Passes Percentage 37

Defensive

3 Interceptions 10
21 Tackles 19
2 Saves 5
64 Duels Won 45

Build-up

20 Total Crosses 10
5 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

1 Offsides 2
13 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Alejandro Morilla Turrión

Starting XI ▼

1
Andrés Fernández
Andrés Fernández Goalkeeper
3
Álex Muñoz
Álex Muñoz Defender
5
Rodrigo Ely
Rodrigo Ely Defender
16
Marcos Luna
Marcos Luna Defender
18
Federico Bonini
Federico Bonini Defender
2
Arnau Puigmal
Arnau Puigmal Midfielder
7
Jon Morcillo
Jon Morcillo
Attacker63'
11
Sergio Arribas
Sergio Arribas Midfielder
10
Nico Melamed
Nico Melamed
Midfielder78'
14
Iddrisu Baba
Iddrisu Baba Midfielder
29
Stefan Dzodic
Stefan Dzodic
Midfielder67'
17
Dion Lopy
Dion Lopy Midfielder
23
Adrián Embarba
Adrián Embarba Midfielder
12
Léo Baptistão
Léo Baptistão
Attacker63'
24
Miguel de la Fuente
Miguel de la Fuente Attacker
9
Thalys
Thalys
Attacker78'
Referee : Alejandro Morilla Turrión

Starting XI ▼

1
Juan Soriano
Juan Soriano Goalkeeper
2
Marvelous Antolín Garzón
Marvelous Antolín Garzón Defender
5
Ignasi Miquel
Ignasi Miquel Defender
24
Amadou Diawara
Amadou Diawara Defender
8
Seydouba Cissé
Seydouba Cissé Midfielder
16
Gonzalo Melero
Gonzalo Melero Midfielder
26
Carlos Guirao
Carlos Guirao
Midfielder78'
17
Naim García
Naim García Midfielder
22
Sebastián Figueredo
Sebastián Figueredo Midfielder
36
Marcos Leiva Calvo
Marcos Leiva Calvo
Midfielder77'
9
Dani Rodríguez
Dani Rodríguez Attacker
10
Juan Cruz
Juan Cruz
Midfielder46'
12
Luis Asué
Luis Asué Attacker
11
Duk
Duk
Attacker29'
19
Diego García
Diego García Attacker
23
Álex Millán
Álex Millán
Attacker67'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
6th Yellowcard
90+3'
Event
Nico Melamed
5th Yellowcard
90+3'
Event
Nico Melamed
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
90+1'
Event
Léo Baptistão
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
82'
Event
Thalys → Miguel de la Fuente
10th Substitution
78'
Event
Nico Melamed → Sergio Arribas
9th Substitution
78'
78'
Event
Carlos Guirao → Gonzalo Melero
8th Substitution
77'
Event
Marcos Leiva Calvo → Sebastián Figueredo
7th Substitution
Event
Stefan Dzodic → Iddrisu Baba
5th Substitution
67'
67'
Event
Álex Millán → Diego García
6th Substitution
Event
Rodrigo Ely
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
65'
Event
Léo Baptistão → Adrián Embarba
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Jon Morcillo → Arnau Puigmal
4th Substitution
63'
46'
Event
Juan Cruz → Dani Rodríguez
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
43'
Event
Seydouba Cissé
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Sergio Arribas
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
31'
29'
Event
Duk → Luis Asué
1st Substitution
21'
Event
Sebastián Figueredo
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
13'
Event
Gonzalo Melero
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Almería exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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