Spartak Moskva vs Lokomotiv Moskva Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Otkrytie Arena Sun, 5 Apr - 4:30 PM
Premier League
Spartak Moskva Spartak Moskva
2 Winner 1
Lokomotiv Moskva Lokomotiv Moskva
Full Time Sun, 5 Apr 4:30 PM
Round 23 Regular Season
Esequiel Barco - 66' (P)
Pablo Solari - 83'
Goal
|
Goal
César Montes - 23'
|
Second yellow card Evgeniy Morozov 72'

CONTEXT

The match between Spartak Moskva and Lokomotiv Moskva is officially finished, with Spartak securing a hard-fought 2-1 victory. Despite trailing 1-0 at half-time, the home side mounted a successful second-half comeback to claim the win. Spartak Moskva dictated the play, holding 62% of the possession compared to Lokomotiv Moskva's 38%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to evaluate if the final scoreline aligned with the underlying shot quality. However, the overall efficiency shift was completely in line with standard expectations. A crucial turning point was a red card issued to Lokomotiv Moskva. This dismissal created a significant second-half distortion, allowing the hosts to capitalize on their numerical advantage. The final outcome was ultimately market-aligned, confirming Spartak Moskva's status as the stronger team. Interestingly, despite flat pre-match market probabilities registering at zero across all outcomes, Spartak Moskva displayed a significant deviation level from baseline pre-match expectations. Overcoming their sluggish start, the hosts fully leveraged the red card to overturn the early deficit and seal all three points.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Spartak Moskva showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
I. Tanashev
I. Tanashev
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.72
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.79
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.54
Spartak Moskva J. Carcedo Mardones
J. Carcedo Mardones
VS
Lokomotiv Moskva M. Galaktionov
M. Galaktionov
1.67
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.91
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Orenburg Rank: 52 W
Zenit Rank: 79 L
Akron Rank: 54 W
Sochi Rank: 48 W
Dinamo Moskva Rank: 70 D
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: 66 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Akron Rank: 55 W
Rubin Kazan Rank: 60 L
Akhmat Grozny Rank: 59 D
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: 51 W
Sochi Rank: 48 W
Rostov Rank: 60 W
17
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
17 - 13 - 15
15

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Spartak Moskva
0%
Draw
0%
Away Lokomotiv Moskva
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
72.75
70.71
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Spartak Moskva
Lokomotiv Moskva
Power Score
72.75
70.71
League Position
6
3
Global Rank
138
173

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Spartak Moskva — Opponent-weighted form score
Lokomotiv Moskva — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Spartak Moskva Lokomotiv Moskva

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Spartak Moskva

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Lokomotiv Moskva

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Spartak Moskva ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lokomotiv Moskva
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.24
30.26
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
30.26
30.24
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Spartak Moskva 0.00 Efficiency Index
vs
Lokomotiv Moskva +0.00 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Spartak Moskva
Lokomotiv Moskva
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Spartak Moskva ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lokomotiv Moskva
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Spartak Moskva Lokomotiv Moskva
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Spartak Moskva Lokomotiv Moskva
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Spartak Moskva
Lokomotiv Moskva
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Spartak Moskva
vs
Lokomotiv Moskva
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Spartak Moskva Lokomotiv Moskva
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Spartak Moskva 0.29
Lokomotiv Moskva 0.33
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Spartak Moskva Lokomotiv Moskva
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Spartak Moskva 0.03
Lokomotiv Moskva 0.04
Spartak Moskva
Lokomotiv Moskva
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 45 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Spartak Moskva Spartak Moskva Home
45 matches
Lokomotiv Moskva Lokomotiv Moskva Away
Match Record
17
Wins
15
13
Draws
13
15
Losses
17
Goals
64
Goals Scored
55
55
Goals Conceded
64
+9
Goal Difference
-9
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-06T00:05:26+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Maximenko
Russia
98 A. Maximenko
D. Denisov
Russia
97 D. Denisov
C. Wooh
France
3 C. Wooh
A. Djiku
Ghana
4 A. Djiku
R. Zobnin
Russia
47 R. Zobnin
R. Litvinov
Russia
68 R. Litvinov
P. Solari
Argentina
7 P. Solari
N. Umyarov
Russia
18 N. Umyarov
E. Barco
Argentina
5 E. Barco
G. Carvalho Fernandes
Substitution
Portugal
83 G. Carvalho Fernandes
L. Garcia
Substitution
Trinidad and Tobago
11 L. Garcia
A. Mitryushkin
Russia
1 A. Mitryushkin
Lucas Fasson
Brazil
3 Lucas Fasson
C. Montes Castro
Mexico
23 C. Montes Castro
E. Morozov
Russia
85 E. Morozov
A. Silyanov
Russia
45 A. Silyanov
A. Karpukas
Russia
93 A. Karpukas
D. Prutsev
Russia
25 D. Prutsev
A. Rudenko
Russia
19 A. Rudenko
A. Batrakov
Russia
83 A. Batrakov
Z. Bakaev
Substitution
Russia
7 Z. Bakaev
D. Vorobyev
Substitution
Russia
10 D. Vorobyev

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 05, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 23 · Regular Season
Stadium
Otkrytie Arena
Capacity
14274
Pitch Surface
N/A
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Inal Tanashev

Statistics

Possession
Spartak Moskva
60%
Lokomotiv Moskva
40%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
5 Big Chances Created 1
16 Shots 10
55 Dangerous attacks 30
62 Possession 38
3 Corners 3
13 Free kicks 16
1 Yellow Cards 3
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 23
17 Throwins 24
5 Goal Kicks 12
17 Successful Headers 15
8 Dribble Attempts 3
8 Successful Dribbles 3
1 Assists 1
2 Penalties 0
14 Goal Attempts 7
79 Ball Safe 79
2 Substitutions 2
3 Injuries 1

Attacking

98 Attacks 76

Possession

82 Successful Passes Percentage 69
431 Successful Passes 224
528 Passes 327
18 Long Passes 15

Defensive

6 Interceptions 14
58 Duels Won 53
14 Tackles 19
3 Saves 4

Discipline

15 Fouls 14
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Inal Tanashev

Starting XI ▼

98
Aleksandr Maksimenko
Aleksandr Maksimenko Goalkeeper
3
Christopher Wooh
Christopher Wooh Defender
4
Alexander Djiku
Alexander Djiku Defender
47
Roman Zobnin
Roman Zobnin Defender
97
Daniil Denisov
Daniil Denisov Defender
5
Esequiel Barco
Esequiel Barco Midfielder
7
Pablo Solari
Pablo Solari Midfielder
18
Nail Umyarov
Nail Umyarov Midfielder
68
Ruslan Litvinov
Ruslan Litvinov Midfielder
83
Gedson Fernandes
Gedson Fernandes Midfielder
62
Pavel Polekh
Pavel Polekh
Attacker79'
11
Levi García
Levi García Attacker
9
Manfred Ugalde
Manfred Ugalde
Attacker46'
Referee : Inal Tanashev

Starting XI ▼

1
Anton Mitryushkin
Anton Mitryushkin Goalkeeper
3
Lucas Fasson
Lucas Fasson Defender
23
César Montes
César Montes Defender
45
Alexander Silyanov
Alexander Silyanov Defender
85
Evgeniy Morozov
Evgeniy Morozov Defender
7
Zelimkhan Bakaev
Zelimkhan Bakaev Midfielder
27
Nikolay Komlichenko
Nikolay Komlichenko
Attacker68'
19
Aleksandr Rudenko
Aleksandr Rudenko Midfielder
25
Danil Prutsev
Danil Prutsev Midfielder
83
Aleksey Batrakov
Aleksey Batrakov Midfielder
93
Artem Karpukas
Artem Karpukas Midfielder
10
Dmitry Vorobyev
Dmitry Vorobyev Attacker
5
Gerzino Nyamsi
Gerzino Nyamsi
Defender76'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Manfred Ugalde
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+5'
Event
Pablo Solari
Header / 2nd Goal
83'
82'
Event
Nikolay Komlichenko
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Pavel Polekh → Gedson Fernandes
4th Substitution
79'
78'
Event
Lucas Fasson
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
76'
Event
Gerzino Nyamsi → Dmitry Vorobyev
3rd Substitution
72'
Event
Evgeniy Morozov
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
68'
Event
Nikolay Komlichenko → Zelimkhan Bakaev
2nd Substitution
Event
Esequiel Barco
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
66'
58'
Event
Evgeniy Morozov
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
49'
Event
Dmitry Vorobyev
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Manfred Ugalde → Levi García
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
23'
Event
César Montes
Header / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Spartak Moskva exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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